The daily grind: 5-1-13

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today’s grind

Pitcher (to start): I’m using Dillon Gee today not because he’s trustworthy, but because he faces the worst lineup I’ve seen in years—the Miami Marlins.

The Astros have a surprisingly decent offense. They remind me a bit of the patchwork unit used by the Athletics—just with substantially less talent. In any case, David Phelps faces them today and the Astros’ greatest proficiency remains striking out.

Andrew Cashner is up to 32 percent owned. He was never available in any of my leagues, although a league mate is trying to trade him to me for Bryce Harper.

Wei-Yin Chen isn’t the most stable choice, but he should have a hard time earning the loss given the Mariners’ weak offense and Aaron Harang‘s early season struggles.

Trevor Bauer starts today, and while I don’t even like the match-up against a weak to mid-tier offense like the Phillies, he probably won’t be available for long.

Pitcher (bum): Harang is the guy to stack against today.

I’m not sure what’s going on with Erik Bedard or if he’s even allowed to pitch over five innings at this point.

Hitter (power): Jonny Gomes will have the platoon advantage against Mark Buehrle. Throw Daniel Nava in the mix as well.

Hitter (speed): Will Venable should start against Scott Feldman

Juan Pierre matches up well with the Mets’ indifferent defense. They’re also among the easiest teams in the league to steal a base against.

Tomorrow’s grind

Pitcher (to start): Roberto Hernandez versus Ervin Santana offers two historically cringe-worthy choices. The case for Hernandez is based on his solid peripherals and gopheritis. If he can regress to a league average home run rate and maintain the other numbers, he’ll be a solid pick. The story behind how Santana climbed from bum to top recommendation is laid out below.

Run to the wire for Kyle Kendrick versus the Marlins.

Justin Grimm looks like a solid pitcher worthy of ownership. He’ll find a spot in “Good enough for me” once Santana isn’t crowding the space.

Pitcher (bum): Joe Blanton is overcooked at the moment.

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Rick Porcello is expected to face Jordan Lyles. Which sounds like a slugfest to me.

I’ll continue betting against Dan Haren.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston will see hittable lefty Eric Stults.

Gomes and Nava continue to be a solid play against J.A. Happ.

Big bat Juan Francisco is a must-play against Haren.

Hitter (speed): Chris Denorfia faces Travis Wood, whose early-season numbers appear to be mostly smoke and mirrors.

Noteworthy news

Stephen Strasburg is not expected to miss a start due to his forearm tightness.

Weather watch

There could be thunderstorms late for the Rays and Royals, but I’m not sure you need to avoid this game.

Good enough for me

Santana has seen incremental improvements across the board this season, jumping from my most reliable bum to a guy I’d like to own. Most notably, he’s striking out more batters by generating more whiffs and he’s walking hardly anybody. His K/BB ratio is 6.20, which is elite. I think he’ll remain home run prone, and he’s among the easiest pitchers to swipe a base against, but the overall numbers might worth a speculative add.


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Marc
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Marc

Am I crazy to think about starting LeBlanc v the Mets today? Only positives I could gain in my pitching categories are a quality start and k’s.  Negatives would be a potential increase in ERA, walks issued and batting average against.

Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson

Probably crazy. I don’t think highly of the Mets offense by any stretch, but the Marlins are just so bad…

I generally avoid streaming starters who have something like a 10% chance of earning a win.

byron from austin
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byron from austin

even if you don’t like mclouth, everyone should be starting him against righties for the time being. i’m shocked i haven’t seen him recommended this week.

Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson

He’s owned in 63% of leagues. I try not to focus on anybody above the 50% threshold unless I’m seeing them available in most of my leagues.

byron from austin
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byron from austin

you know, i assumed that might be the case, but wanted to bring him up just in case! smile

a couple pitching recs in the next couple days: kendrick and pettibone vs. a stanton-less miami. no-brainer

Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson

Relax there, you’re going to take over my column!

I did note Kendrick and you’re a day ahead of the column’s scope with Pettibone. Almost any pitcher is an auto start against Miami, even with Stanton.

But
Guest
But

Gee wiz

Drew
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Drew

It would have been nice if Gee was able to get at least as many Ks as ER given up.  Against that Marlins lineup, and this is what he does.

Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson

Yea…I give up. No more Gee until his velocity gets back above 90MPH

M. Simpson
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M. Simpson

Do you think Miguel Montero will start hitting the ball soon?

Brad Johnson
Guest
Brad Johnson

He’s not a guy who I’ve ever really watched all too closely, so I can’t give you a scout impression. His stat page, which includes a .236 BABIP, normal whiff rate, and .056 ISO, suggests that he should rebound quite a bit. In particular, he should see about 7-10% more hits on balls in play and his power output should treble.

M. Simpson
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M. Simpson

Arencibia is available in my league. Same with Gattis. Do you think either one of them would be a better pick in the long run?

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