The daily grind: 5-17-13

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today’s grind

Pitcher (to start): Jeanmar Gomez is the best available starter today, which is not a good thing.

Pitcher (bum): However, there are plenty of bad starters to sift through.

Jordan Lyles, Rick Porcello, Vance Worley, and Burch Smith all look particularly exploitable. In addition to those names, Brandon Maurer is opposed by Ubaldo Jimenez in a probable slugfest.

Hitter (power): Lucas Duda has a nice match-up against Edwin Jackson.

Garrett Jones will see Lyles while Daniel Nava will face Worley.

The Giants seem to directing some frustration at Brandon Belt despite solid performance. I expect Brett Pill to see starts against lefties, although I suppose we’ll find out tonight.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain has a solid match-up against Jarrod Parker.

Chris Denorfia should start against Gio Gonzalez.

Tomorrow’s grind

Pitcher (to start): I would usually recommend Hector Santiago, Marco Estrada and Justin Grimm, but they face the Angels, Cardinals, and Tigers respectively. So I’m avoiding them.

I mention them because I can’t point at anybody else without it being a pure gamble. If you want that gamble pick anyway, it’s Juan Nicasio against the Giants. But don’t credit/blame me for the results.

Pitcher (bum): Joe Blanton has looked lost at times this season. The White Sox aren’t a difficult match-up, but they’re good enough to cause trouble.

Erik Bedard has yet to settle in this season. He’s been unusually prone to walks and home runs—a bad combination.

Chris Capuano has a tough assignment against the Braves.

The Orioles are throwing the always talented TBA.

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Hitter (power): Ervin Santana gives up some home runs, which makes it a good day for Seth Smith and Brandon Moss.

Brandon Belt ought to be owned more frequently than 33 percent. A game against Nicasio is likely to help his numbers.

Chris Johnson should like batting against Capuano.

Jonny Gomes finally sees a mid-tier lefty – Scott Diamond

Hitter (speed): Eric Young Jr. or Charlie Blackmon against Tim Lincecum might produce a steal or two.

Noteworthy news

Word on the street is that expanded replay could hit the shelves as early as 2014. The game will be poorer for it. You can’t tell, but that was biting sarcasm.

Weather watch

Minnesota, Atlanta, and Chicago have possible thunderstorms in the forecast.


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willy mays hayes jr
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willy mays hayes jr

B. Mauer(Mariners), J. Gomez(PIT) or Porcello??

Brad Johnson
Guest
Brad Johnson

I’m going to direct you back up to the column. One of those was a heavily qualified “recommend” and the other two were “exploit.”

G. Shumway
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G. Shumway

Pitcher for tomorrow: why not Brandon McCarthy at Miami? Tossed eight shutout innings against Philadelphia last time out and is probably available in most leagues.

B
Guest
B

That’s a good pick actually. He’s owned in my leagues so I assumed his ownership was past the cutoff.

Compton
Guest
Compton

David Murphy is heating up and is a solid play today. I also see Viciedo going yard v. CJ Wilson.

Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson

I don’t know if one 2-for-4 day qualifies as heating up, but I have been criminally under-recommending him.

I’m a Viciedo jinx. Every time I recommend him, it turns out something happened in the last two days to make him unavailable. So I suppose I’m not a jinx, just unobservant of the White Sox.

I like both those picks.

G. Shumway
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G. Shumway

McCarthy has 35% ownership on CBS and 20% on ESPN, I just picked him up this morning. I like the Miami matchup and I like that it’s on the road even more. If it goes well I might even keep him around for a start against San Diego next time up. Fortunately he skips the series in Colorado.

mockcarr
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mockcarr

It won’t change much. Fans will just complain about the umpires who are looking at the replays, as they have in the other sports.

Brad Johnson
Guest
Brad Johnson

I don’t think that’s the point. The point is to make correct calls. And replay enables this.

There will be plays where the video is confusing, but I tend to think that the job of the replay official is easier in baseball than say football. At least on non-balls/strikes plays.

Compton
Guest
Compton

Brad,

Thanks for not recommending Viciedo then!

As far as Murphy heating up, I must point out that he’s slashing .389/.450/.778 in May and is 7 for 18 with 2 homers in the past week. We all knew his putrid start wouldn’t last long, and I think it’s time to start throwing him out there on a regular basis i.e. against righties.

One last question if you have the time: how do you treat batter v pitcher splits? Obviously, there’s the problem of small sample sizes, but should you even look at them at all?

Thanks

Brad Johnson
Guest
Brad Johnson

I only consider handedness. I never put weight on a specific batter/pitcher match-up because there’s no way of separating the signal from the noise.

So no, I don’t look at them. I’m not even entirely sure where I could find them. B-Ref ostensibly.

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