The Young Legs of Spring

Steals are down, but that doesn't make Dee Gordon more valuable. (via Arturo Pardavila III & Joon Lee)

Steals are down, but that doesn’t make Dee Gordon more valuable. (via Arturo Pardavila III & Joon Lee)

Editor’s Note: This is the final post of “Fantasy Baseball Preview Week!” For more info, click here.

Chicks dig the long ball. It’s a matter of fact. Also a matter of fact is that male humans also dig the long ball. Everyone digs the long ball! But the side effect of hitters suddenly knocking balls out of the park and rounding the bases like never before (the 12.8 percent league homers-to-fly balls rate in 2016 was the highest mark since FanGraphs has data, which goes back to 2002) is that now there are fewer opportunities to steal bases. You can’t steal a base if you hit the ball over the fence!

Love it or hate it, stolen bases is either a rotisserie category or an event that earns you points in most fantasy leagues. So with the rise in power and decline in steals, what’s a fantasy owner to do?

Let’s first take a step back and examine the stolen base landscape. We’ll begin with a pretty chart of historical stolen base totals over the last 10 years.

podz-1

We actually hit a 10-year low in 2015, but barely bounced off it in 2016. So clearly, stolen bases are tougher to come by than they were before 2015. How has this affected fantasy leagues? Luckily, I have been running my local fantasy league since founding it in the early 2000s and I have access to all its historical data. The league is a standard 12-team mixed format, with 23-man rosters, so it is close to a standard league and as such should provide a good example from which to draw conclusions.

Let’s see how many stolen bases my league has accumulated each season, and then what percentage of all major league stolen bases that represented for that year.

Percentage of SB Accounted for on Fantasy League Roster, 2007-2016
Season MLB SB Fantasy League SB % of MLB SB
2007 2,918 1,795 61.5%
2008 2,799 1,748 62.5%
2009 2,970 1,758 59.2%
2010 2,959 1,807 61.1%
2011 3,279 1,978 60.3%
2012 3,229 1,956 60.6%
2013 2,693 1,646 61.1%
2014 2,764 1,728 62.5%
2015 2,505 1,537 61.4%
2016 2,537 1,603 63.2%

And, in graphical format:

podz-2

So my local league’s stolen base trend essentially mimics the major league trend. Overall stolen bases have declined, and my league’s stolen base total hit a low in 2015 and rebounded marginally last year.

The interesting column is the last one, which represents the percentage of steals my league had on its active roster earning stats. It’s been incredibly consistent and hasn’t followed the same trend as total steals.

Let’s continue digging by looking at the group of players who stole at least 30 bases each year. It’s an arbitrary number, but we’ll go with it. I’ll also include the stolen base total of the major league leader, as well as the percentage of total steals that leader represented.

30 SB Players, Percentage of MLB SB by SB Leader, 2007-2016
Season MLB SB # 30 SB Players SB Leader SB Leader % of MLB SB
2007 2,918 19 78 2.7%
2008 2,799 16 68 2.4%
2009 2,970 17 70 2.4%
2010 2,959 19 68 2.3%
2011 3,279 20 61 1.9%
2012 3,229 23 49 1.5%
2013 2,693 16 52 1.9%
2014 2,764 15 64 2.3%
2015 2,505  7 58 2.3%
2016 2,537 14 62 2.4%

Not surprisingly, the number of players reaching the 30-steal threshold has followed a similar pattern to the total major league stolen bases. And gone are the days when the major league leader is in the high 60s or even into the 70s. But if we look to the last column, the percentage of overall steals the leader represents has remained relatively constant, with an odd valley in that 2011-to-2013 period.

What that last column suggests is that the current crop of elite base thieves are no more valuable in fantasy leagues now than they were when steals were more plentiful. So if you happen to hear that because stolen bases are down across the league, it’s even more important to draft a top base stealer like Billy Hamilton, you now know that such advice is not supported by any sort of statistical or mathematical evidence.

Perhaps the thought process behind such advice is that the Billy Hamilton’s and Dee Gordon’s could always go off for 70-80 steals and then they would be more valuable than they had been in the past. Well, of course if they steal more bases than they ever have, they would be more valuable! But also, this would be true in a relative sense as well. If major league-wide steals remained the same, an even swipe-happier Hamilton would represent a slightly higher percent of the league total, making him more valuable than if he had accomplished that in 2014. Even so, it’s poor advice because any player exceeding his historical performance, assuming a constant league environment, is going to be more valuable.

So how does stolen base scarcity impact the value of the top base thieves? The answer is … it doesn’t. As long as the top base thieves are also following the trend and stealing fewer bases, then there’s no effect. Everything is relative in fantasy baseball and the speed trend and its lack of influence on the value of speedsters is a perfect example of this concept.

Card Corner Plus: Gene Michael and High Intelligence on 1972 Topps
Three smart players devoted their lives to baseball.

Stolen Bases and Spring Training

The first day of spring training games is always an exciting time of year. Baseball! Naturally, we want to find some glimmer of meaning in the stats players post. Is that hitter who just swatted nine spring homers about to enjoy a power breakout? Is the pitcher who just struck out 30 percent of the batters he faced on his way to putting it all together en route to a career best ERA?

While the varying levels of competition and small sample size make it difficult to glean anything impactful, perhaps stolen bases does provide us some insight. That’s because stolen base totals aren’t just due to player skill, but also managerial tendency. If a manager decides he wants to run more often, he might let his team loose during spring training to test out his new strategy. We can then look at historical data to determine whether those spring training stolen base spikes or declines versus the previous year carried over to the regular season.

Let’s begin by calculating the correlation between stolen base attempts during spring training and the regular season. I’m not going to use straight stolen base attempts since they are heavily influenced by the number of times a hitter gets on base. Instead, I have created a formula that estimates the number of stolen base attempts a player or team records per the number of opportunities. I call the equation SBA/TOB, or stolen base attempts per times on base. It’s not technically all times on base, but just those times a hitter would typically have the opportunity to swipe a base, assuming another player isn’t standing on the base in front of him (which I have no choice but to ignore).

SBA/TOB = (SB + CS) / (1B + 2B + BB + HBP)

It’s pretty simple and straightforward, as it assumes a hitter has the opportunity to steal a base on his singles, doubles walks and hit-by-pitches. Sure, there will be times when he’s blocked from swiping, but since we care more about this rate relative to the team’s rate in the past, the absolute accuracy of the rate isn’t all that important. One note — for all the research I’ll be presenting, I’m using spring training and regular season statistics from 2012 to 2016.

So let’s get back to the correlation between SBA/TOB during spring training and SBA/TOB during the season. Below I have included the correlations between all the components of the metric from spring to the regular season.

SBA/TOB Correlations
Metric 1B 2B BB HBP SB CS SBA/TOB
Spring to Season Correlation 0.355 0.216 0.463 0.100 0.243 0.306 0.272

So we find that the majority of these metrics, aside from HBP, does correlate to a meaningful degree between spring training and the regular season, though the correlation isn’t that strong.

Now let’s look at SBA/TOB during spring and the regular season over the years at the major league level.

SBA/TOB, 2012-2016
Season SBA/TOB ST SBA/TOB RS
2012 0.097 0.083
2013 0.084 0.070
2014 0.085 0.073
2015 0.082 0.069
2016 0.083 0.067
Average 0.086 0.072

We can make two clear observations here:

  1. Teams run more frequently during spring training than the regular season.
  2. The SBA/TOB trend has followed the overall stolen base trend discussed above.

Now let’s get to the meat of the research and determine how teams that ran significantly more or less during spring training versus the previous regular season performed during the season following. Below is a table with group averages based on how the teams in that group performed in spring versus the previous season and then how they ended up performing during that season.

Group Averages
SBA/TOB Diff Yr 1 to ST Yr 2 Range # Teams Avg SBA/TOB Diff Yr 1 to ST Yr 2 Avg SBA/TOB Diff Yr 1 to Yr 2 % Up % Down
>= .04 18  0.053  0.020 83.3%  16.7%
>= .02 & < .04 26  0.030  0.002 50.0%  50.0%
> -.01 & < .02 43  0.006 -0.006 39.5%  60.5%
> -.02 & <= -.01 14 -0.014 -0.010 35.7%  64.3%
<= -.02 19 -0.034 -0.025  0.0% 100.0%

Well gosh darnit, the data tell us exactly what we were hoping. Spring stolen base spikes and declines do mean something, and perhaps a lot!

When looking at the table, just remember that the average team posts a .014 increase in SBA/TOB during spring training versus the regular season, so you see that with that middle group, if they are generally around the same in spring versus the previous year, that’s not a good sign.

You see the second group from the top even increased their SBA/TOB by a whopping 0.03 on average and that still only resulted in an almost identical SBA/TOB as the previous season, with half the teams increasing and half decreasing.

So, really, if you’re looking for players who might benefit from a managerial tendency to run more often, stick with the top group only, otherwise it’s far less of a guarantee. Similarly, be cautious with players on teams that posted an SBA/TOB at least .02 worse in spring than the previous season, as all 19 of those teams ran less frequently!

Once again, this kind of analysis looks at the averages of a group, which means that not every team within the group is going to follow. Let’s look at some of the teams you might be curious about that either increased their SBA/TOB or decreased it significantly in 2016 and whether their spring performance was a sign of things to come.

SBA/TOB, Select Teams, 2015-2016
Team SBA/TOB Diff 2015 to 2016 SBA/TOB Diff 2015 to ST 2016
Brewers 0.069  0.044
Nationals 0.045  0.060
Padres 0.039 -0.010
Indians 0.028  0.029

The Brewers ran wild in 2016 and not only led baseball in SBA/TOB, but did so by a crazy 0.027. Their .138 mark was the highest in the five-year period by .022. Of course, not all of that should be explained by managerial philosophy, as speedsters Jonathan Villar, Hernan Perez and Keon Broxton all had histories of serious thievery.

Surprise, surprise, the Padres’ stolen base outburst could not have been predicted by spring performance! The biggest regular season shocker was Wil Myers, who nearly doubled his SBA/TOB from a then-career high .092 in 2015 to 0.174 in 2016. And guess what … he attempted just one steal during the 2016 spring!

Now let’s look at the teams that declined the most from 2015 to 2016.

SBA/TOB, Select Teams, 2015-2016
Team SBA/TOB Diff 2015 to 2016 SBA/TOB Diff 2015 to ST 2016
Marlins -0.039 -0.040
Rockies -0.027 -0.007
Cardinals -0.025  0.065
Tigers -0.025 -0.014
Orioles -0.024  0.033
Cubs -0.022  0.037
Mariners -0.021  0.035

Wowzers, only three of the seven teams actually posted a decline in SBA/TOB during spring training, and the four that posted increases enjoyed dramatic jumps. In fact, the four spring surgers made up half of the top eight in spring spikes, and the Cardinals actually topped the list! It goes to show you that just because group averages from a data set suggest something doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to happen every time.

Obviously, the Marlins’ loss of Dee Gordon for half the season had a lot to do with their decline. The Cardinals’ problem was that only one of the six players who stole more than one base during spring training actually earned any sort of significant regular season playing time. The one was Stephen Piscotty, who attempted six steals in just 57 spring plate appearances and posted a 0.286 SBA/TOB, then was back to normal during the season, posting just a 0.061 SBA/TOB. It’s certainly not the first time Cardinals manager Mike Matheny has defied logic.

So while nothing is ever a guarantee when dealing with humans and baseball, when looking to mine for stolen base upside, target players on teams that posted a spike in SBA/TOB during spring versus the previous season. Equally, be wary of the potentially hidden downside for players whose teams posted an SBA/TOB significantly lower than their previous season mark.


Print This Post
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. He also sells beautiful photos through his online gallery, Pod's Pics. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

Leave a Reply

5 Comments on "The Young Legs of Spring"

Notify of
avatar
Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
TheTinDoor
Guest
TheTinDoor

Excellent. My favorite of the THT fantasy articles this week. I’ve been questioning this spring how to price speed when it’s in (relatively) short supply, and the first half of this article did a great job explaining.

I’m sure you’ve noticed, there seems to be significant resources being spent on SBs in Expert leagues this spring. As someone who drafted Billy Hamilton very highly in the past, do you see this as a correction to true values, or an OVER correction based on decreased supply?

Mike
Guest

I don’t think I agree with your premise. I know during my LABR mixed draft, the same steals guys sat atop my rankings sheet as always and continue to be undervalued. Guys like Kiermaier, Inciarte, and the elite like Hamilton and Gordon, always got drafted well after I had them ranked.

What specific players are you thinking are being valued more highly due to the decline in steals and the perceived boost in value these players would receive?

TheTinDoor
Guest
TheTinDoor

TBH it was more anecdotal. I haven’t run values for all the league types to really gauge this. I think it’s just being talked about a lot more so maybe it was just front of mind.

Mike Podhorzer
Guest

I think people might think they are grabbing speed earlier, or justifying a speed pick “because steals are down”, but the tiny sample of my one draft doesn’t suggest any of these guys are now overvalued. I’m not sure compared to NFBC ADP though.

Fake Yeezy Boost
Guest

Images of the “Beluga 2.0” Yeezy Boost 350 V2 haven’t even surfaced yet, but @TheYeezyMafia has created photoshop renderings of what to expect, showcasing a pull tab on the heel, something the original colorway lacked.

wpDiscuz