HR/FB Park Factors

Just a quick hit to share park factors for HR/FB rate.

I used BIP data and the methodology from Baseball Reference to determine simple HR/FB park factors for 2009 and 4-year weighed factors (weights are 5,3,2,1).

Update: My spreadsheet was thrown off by the Rays’ name change. I’ve corrected the numbers below

Without further adieu, here’s the list:

Team        Park                         2009    4 Year
Angels      Angel Stadium                 110      96
Astros      Minute Maid Park              104     108
Athletics   McAfee Colisuem                95      92
Blue Jays   Rogers Centre                 105     108
Braves      Turner Field                   90      95
Brewers     Miller Park                   108     106
Cardinals   Busch Stadium                  86      84
Cubs        Wrigley Field                  97     103
DiamondbacksChase Field                    99     106
Dodgers     Dodger Stadium                 89      95
Giants      Pacific Bell Park             104      95
Indians     Jacobs Field                   75      88
Mariners    Safeco Park                    95      96
Marlins     Dolphins Stadium              109      99
Mets        Citi Field                     98      98
Nationals   Nationals Stadium              91      92
Orioles     Oriole Park at Camden Yar     109     115
Padres      PETCO Park                     73      75
Phillies    Citizens Bank Park            109      94
Pirates     PNC Park                      105      94
Rays        Tropicana Field               110     111
Rangers     The Ballpark at Arlington      98      97
Red Sox     Fenway Park                    98      90
Reds        Great American Ballpark       121     114
Rockies     Coors Field                   103     112
Royals      Kaufman Stadium                73      78
Tigers      Comerica Park                  94     101
Twins       Metrodome                     109      96
White Sox   US Cellular Field             115     118
Yankees     New Yankee Stadium            130     130

The Mets and the Yankees Park Factors are one season only

The Nationals Park Factor is two seasons, weighted at 5 and 3


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Dan Turkenkopf
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Dan Turkenkopf

@Nick: I had twins back in August and decided to take a break from writing for a while.

@Colin: The data is from BIS.  I included fly balls and fliner flies.

@archilochusColubris: Yeah, PETCO is substantially lower. The Rays changing their name knocked everything off.  I’ve fixed the post. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Colin Wyers
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Colin Wyers

Dan, what’s the fly ball per hit ball (AB-K+SF) rate per park? Let’s say for four years, no weighting, if you don’t mind. Are some parks “fly ball” parks?

Nick Steiner
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Nick Steiner

Where the heck have you been Dan?

Colin Wyers
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Colin Wyers

What’s the data source on this? The number of fly balls can vary, depending on whether you’re asking BIS, STATS or Retrosheet.

archilochusColubris
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archilochusColubris

Also, any comment on PETCO?

Would have thought that one would be a bit lower…

Dan Turkenkopf
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Dan Turkenkopf
@Colin They’re all fairly close – in the low 30% range.  Coors is the lowest at 30.04% and RFK was the highest at 34.87. These numbers are just raw rates, and not adjusted for pitching staff at all.  I’ll take a look at real park factors later this week. Sorry for the formatting. parkname             fb_rate Angel Stadium of Anaheim     0.3443 Oriole Park at Camden Yards   0.3353 Fenway Park               0.3463 U.S. Cellular Field         0.3356 Jacobs Field          … Read more »
Greg Schaentzler
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Greg Schaentzler

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Colin Wyers
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Colin Wyers

Okay, excluding the three parks that weren’t in service all four years, I get a standard deviation of .013 in FB rate. Given those numbers, we should expect to see an SD of .003 on the basis of random chance alone. You can’t directly subtract SDs, IIRC, so you have to do it with variances (square of the SD), so:

(.013^2-.003^2)^.5 = .0126

is the “true” SD of observed FB% by park.

That strikes me as being rather high – and makes me wonder about potential scorer bias with the BIS data.

Colin Wyers
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Colin Wyers

Interesting. If you’ll indulge me further – about how many BIP per park?

jedlovec3
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jedlovec3

Colin- see my comments on The Book Blog.  In summary, BIS scorers are rotated through different games, teams, and parks throughout the season, AND there’s an almost-entirely different set of scorers each year.  Considering all of that, I’m not sure how “scorer bias” sneaks in there. 

Is it possible- and Greg R has brought this up before- that weather patterns are influencing the data?  Stiff winds that hold the ball up in the air longer?

Dan Turkenkopf
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Dan Turkenkopf

For those in play the whole 4 seasons, between 17000 and 19000.

Dolphins Stadium had the lowest BIP rate at 69%, while the Metrodome had the highest at 75.7%.

BIP rate is hugely influenced by the players of course.

Dan Turkenkopf
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Dan Turkenkopf

There’s probably some selection bias in these numbers too, because you’ll likely see more flyball pitchers in the parks that are more forgiving to flyballs.

Or at least that’s the theory. I’d have to check how true it is.

Dan Turkenkopf
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Dan Turkenkopf
Ok, I now have Park Factors for Flyball Rate.  I have no idea what they might mean, but here we go anyway. Team       PF Angels     107 Astros     102 Athletics   101 Blue Jays     98 Braves       99 Brewers     101 Cardinals     97 Cubs       103 Diamondbacks   99 Dodgers     102 Giants       95 Indians     94 Mariners     101 Marlins     100 Mets       N/A Nationals   N/A Orioles     101 Padres    … Read more »
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