See You Soon: Buster Posey

I originally intended for this to be a post briefly updating the minor league performances of major league ready prospects but Marc Hulet went ahead and took the wind right out of my sails. Rather than repeating Marc’s words in my own muddled prose, I’ll take this opportunity to run a slightly longer profile on each individual player, starting with one Buster Posey.

Buster Posey: AAA Fresno Grizzlies (.343/.437/.536) – Honestly, there’s nothing left to say about Posey’s incarceration in Fresno that hasn’t already been said elsewhere. However, it’s impossible for me to talk about Posey without focusing on Brian Sabean’s delay tactics. His excuse machine is running on fumes at this point. Thanks to Sabean, we now know that:

-catcher’s defense is important
-AAA pitchers aren’t good
-the PCL is a hitters environment
-the Giants don’t have openings for high potential 1b/C types

To Sabean’s credit, the first three points are basically correct. The problem is, they don’t seem to be terribly relevant. From what I can gather (mostly from Kevin Goldstein’s scouting reports), Posey’s defense is adequate and he’s thrown out 44% of baserunners (12 CS in 27 attempts). And while the pitching might not be great and the hitting environment fantastic, one glance at Posey’s sweet stroke corroborates the gaudy triple slash. According to the THT Forecasts page, his current Major League Equivalent line is .282/.368/.410, good for a .348 wOBA. That’s in line with the .354 wOBA projected by Oliver.

That brings me to the last bullet, how do Bochy and staff find reps for Posey with Bengie Molina and Aubrey Huff standing in the way? It’s my personal opinion that the Giants are a good team. I don’t believe their roster is better than the Dodgers or the Rockies but it can certainly keep up. Nor do I think playing it safe with Bengie Molina (.323 wOBA) or Aubrey Huff (.350 wOBA) is a luxury the Giants can really afford. When a team’s innate talent isn’t better than its main competitors it seems like a good time to take a shot on the upside talent. Sure, Posey’s WAR projection is similar to that of Molina and Huff, but it’s a bit of a high variance projection. With Molina and Huff, we know they’re going to go on playing basically as well as they have been. There’s no upside to speak of but the downside risk is minimal. With Posey he could enter the league and scuffle like Matt Wieters. Or he could completely dominate in his first spin through the bigs the way Joe Mauer did in 2004. Or he could play to his projections.

I can only assume the Giants are aware of these potential outcomes. If indications that Posey isn’t nearing a call up are true, then it means the Giants think the risk outweighs the potential gains. Conversely, Sabean could be blowing a lot of smoke up our collective bungholes. He could just be asking Posey to force his way onto the roster. We should know soon. The Giants return home from a seven game road trip to host the Oakland Athletics on June 11, if they intend to end this charade that seems like the perfect time to do it.

Next Up: Sir Stephen Strasburg


Print This Post
The critics love The Daily Grind! "Reading these every day is like watching one man's slow descent into insanity." - Thomas ..... Follow Brad on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.
Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Dave
Guest
Dave

Maybe Sabean honestly thinks that Molina will keep up his torrid 7.7% BB-rate. I wonder if anyone else mentioned that Molina of the Bengie variety is one of the worst defensive catchers around.

Brad Johnson
Guest
Brad Johnson

I suppose I overlooked mentioning the seemingly hundreds of times Sabean’s commented on Molina’s superb handling of the staff, etc etc.

Ken
Guest
Ken

You can’t just dismiss Molina’s handling of the staff out of hand though. No matter how much Posey might hit, he’s not going to win a ton of games by himself with the bat. If the Giants’ staff also started to suffer (which we can’t predict would happen) they would have nothing at all going for them.

Brad Johnson
Guest
Brad Johnson

True enough, but the Giants have the chance to bring Posey along slowly by getting him plenty of starts at 1b while he gets used to the pitching staff. All reports I’ve seen (again mostly from Kevin Goldstein) suggest he’s a hard worker and bright enough to handle a staff.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
Guest
obsessivegiantscompulsive
This is the first to acknowledge that Posey might fail, so I would have to say it’s the best I’ve seen so far.  But perhaps you read my comment on the Fangraphs article and thus accounted for that. Still, your point about his potential is true and an excellent point, we don’t know exactly what would happen if we brought Posey up.  And that is a very valid point, that we know basically what we got with Huff and Molina, but that Posey is a roll of the dice that could pay off big time. But isn’t that what a… Read more »
obsessivegiantscompulsive
Guest
obsessivegiantscompulsive
In addition, stamina is the main concern the Giants had about Posey going into the season.  They were ready to start Posey in the majors, any concerns about offense and defense were things they were willing to work around, but they were looking to get a vet catcher to pair up with him because they didn’t think he would last a full season catching. Let’s say you’re right, he comes up and is the second coming of Mauer, and they trade Molina away as most people say the Giants should do after bringing Posey up.  However, if you would recall… Read more »
Brad Johnson
Guest
Brad Johnson
fwiw I envision 2 starts a week behind the plate and 3-4 at 1b.  That’s how I’d break him in personally, and it should help keep him a little fresher. Bengie shouldn’t get pissed by that although Huff might be a little annoyed. I know they talked about moving Huff to LF but that sounds like a disaster. If Bengie’s going to get pissy that’s really a failure on management’s part to give him realistic expectations. He should never have been signed without being made aware that he might be split starts with Posey or backing him up if he… Read more »
Brad Johnson
Guest
Brad Johnson

Guess who got called up…

Now let’s hope they don’t do what they did last september…he’s supposed to play about 5 days a week.

wpDiscuz