Armed with a cadre of young, premium talent, the Texas Rangers have a good shot a contending in 2010 and figure to battle for AL West titles for years to come. CHONE projects Texas to tally 86 wins while taking baseball’s short-stack division. And there’s more help on the way. ESPN’s Keith Law placed the Rangers first in his 2010 MLB organizational rankings, as did Baseball America’s John Manuel on his own list.

While the club’s embarrassment of pitching riches dominates the conversation, Texas has a home-grown center fielder who figures to greatly aid those highly-touted arms. CHONE forecasts a 2.8 WAR season for Julio Borbon, with his superb range translating to well over a win saved defensively. But what about Borbon’s bat?

A University of Tennessee star, Borbon broke his ankle a week prior to the start of his junior season and missed the first two months of the college schedule. However, he recovered and impressed scouts with his fleet feet enough to be a supplemental first-round selection (35th overall) in the 2007 draft.

Texas inked the Scott Boras client for $1.3 million, and Borbon made his full-season debut in the High-A California League in 2008. In 314 plate appearances, Borbon batted .306/.346/.395, walking just 4.8 percent of the time but making plenty of contact (10.3 K%). He also stole 36 bases in 43 attempts (an 83.7 percent success rate) for the aptly-named Bakersfield Blaze.

Borbon earned a promotion to the Double-A Texas League during the summer, where he hit .337/.380/.459 in 280 PA. His walk and whiff rates remained similar (5 BB%, 12.5 K%), and he showed a little more pop (.122 Isolated Power, compared to a .089 ISO in High-A). However, he certainly benefitted from a .370 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and his base thievery took a hit (17 steals in 28 attempts, a 60.7 percent success rate).

This past year, Borbon split his time between the Triple-A Pacific Coast League and the majors. With Oklahoma City, he posted a .307/.367/.386 triple-slash. He didn’t split the gaps often (.079 ISO), but Borbon improved somewhat in terms of working the count. He drew ball four 7.2 percent of the time, while striking out 9.8 percent. With 25 stolen bases in 32 tries (78.1 percent), he also put his speed to better use.

Borbon spent a few days in the big leagues in late June and early July, but he arrived in earnest in August. Overall, he had a .312/.376/.414 line in 179 PA, walking 8.4 percent and punching out 17.8 percent with a .102 ISO. His BABIP was .360. Most importantly for fantasy folks, Borbon nabbed 19 bases in 23 attempts, good for an 82.6 percent success rate.

Given the sample size, it’s best not to infer too much from Borbon’s first foray in the major leagues. But, his plate discipline stats indicate that he had some trouble telling balls from strikes. Borbon chased 27.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25 percent MLB average), while letting ‘er rip on pitches within the zone just 55.5 percent (66 percent MLB average). Given his free-swinging ways in the minors, Borbon’s strike-zone judgment bears watching in 2010.

CHONE predicts that the 24 year-old will author a .297/.349/.400 line in 2010, with a 104 wRC+. Given a full year’s worth of playing time, Borbon should top 30 steals at a high-percentage clip. That makes him someone to target in mixed leagues. But as the old cliche goes, you can’t steal first. Borbon would be best served by showing a little more restraint at the plate.

Over the last little while we’ve been looking at suggested draft orders for each fantasy position. We’ve already had posts for catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen.

The Top Targets:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.410 wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.393 wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.316 wOBA)

There is a pretty big drop-off after the first three shortstops on the list. There’s actual a drop after the first two. Ramirez has seen a drop in steals over the past three seasons – from 51 to 35 to 27, as he’s moved into more of a run-producing role, which has hurt his overall game a bit. With that said, he still batted .342 with 24 homers and he drove in 100 runs for the first time in his career. He’s still a stud if he doesn’t steal 30 bases and he scores fewer runs.

Tulowitzki took a leap into fantasy stardom in ‘09 with a 30-20 season and 100 runs scored. He still has room to grow and we could see a .300 average in 2010, along with 100 RBI. The fact that he took more walks last season (11.6 BB%) is a good sign.

Rollins had an “off year” and he was still a 20-30 player with 100 runs scored. He doesn’t help you in batting average, but he has a great lineup around him so he’s going to be valuable even if his recent struggles are actually regression showing its ugly face.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.390 wOBA)
5. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.389 wOBA)
6. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.342 wOBA)
7. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.319 wOBA)
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.321 wOBA)

Jeter posted the third highest wOBA of any shortstop in the Majors last season but he sits at No. 4 on the list, in part due to his age (36 this season). We don’t expect him to steal 30 bases again and the 18 homers were probably a bit of a fluke (or ball-park induced, as 13 came at home).

Likewise, Bartlett’s ‘09 season was probably a career year in terms of power and batting average. He’ll probably continue to be a solid contributor with the bat, but definitely not a top target. Reyes gets bumped down the list due to his injury/health woes. We really have no idea at this point when his season will begin. And much of his value is tied around his base running, so it will be interesting to see how he rebounds in that area.

I’m definitely not a big Alexei Ramirez fan but he obviously has value as someone that can be a 15-15 player with a .260-.280 average. He also potentially offers some versatility depending on how the Sox club uses him. Drew is just frustrating. He has the talent to be a Top 5 shortstop but he just cannot put it together consistently. But he is entering his age-27 season, so maybe something will click. Drew has 20-homer potential.

The Leftovers:
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.316 wOBA)
10. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.322 wOBA)
11. Yunel Escobar , Atlanta (.357 wOBA)
12. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (.354 wOBA)
13. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.344 wOBA)
14. Marco Scutaro, Toronto (.354 wOBA)
15. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles AL (.339 wOBA)

A lot of these guys are very similar in value so you could really rank them about 15 different ways. Furcal doesn’t run enough anymore to be truly coveted. But if he can play 150 games, he could score 100 runs with a good, young offense behind him. It’s hard to know what to expect from Andrus this year… and we can only hope that he avoids the dreaded sophomore curse. Don’t overpay for him. Escobar has value as someone that can hit 10-15 homers and bat .270-.300 but he’s not a run producer and he doesn’t steal bases.

Cabrera hits for a hollow .300 average but he went down with an injury today so we’ll have to await word on its severity. Tejada’s in his declining years a move back to the American League probably is not going to help. Scutaro is most assuredly coming off of a career year, but his numbers will probably dip less now that he’s in a more potent lineup thanks to his move from Toronto to Boston. He could score 100 runs at the top of that lineup. This is the year I’d like to see Aybar use his full talent and steal 30+ bases with 100 runs scored; he’s my personal shortstop sleeper pick for 2010.

Up Next: The Outfielders

A bunch of people from FanGraphs are enjoying Spring Training here in Arizona this week. Thursday we took in the Brewers-Reds game and delighted fans in the right field seats with our special brand of knowledge. In a mostly uneventful game, the Reds brought in a pitcher to seal the deal in the ninth inning that caught us off guard. None of us had ever heard of Logan Ondrusek (although to be fair Marc Hulet was not at the game) and that, combined with the fact that he was put into a game in a save situation and closed the game, made him worthy of a post.

Ondrusek was a 13th-round pick of the Reds in 2005 from a community college in Texas. The first thing that strikes you is that he is tall. MiLB.com lists him at 6’8 but it would not surprise me if he was bigger than that.

After an extended stint as a starter in 2007, Ondrusek made just three starts in 2008 and has been in the bullpen ever since. He seemed to be nothing special until the 2009 season, in which he began the year in the Hi-A Florida State League and ended in Triple-A. Among his three stops, his highest ERA was 1.74 and for the year he had a 1.50 ERA in 72 innings.

The scouting reports show Ondrusek with a low-90s fastball, a changeup and a slider. He did not overpower batters and with borderline shaky command, he had uninspiring results. But in 2009 Ondrusek had a 2.6 BB/9 and he allowed just 1 HR, helping to explain his great leap forward.

With such a miniscule HR rate it is not surprising to see Ondrusek as a ground ball pitcher. Minorleaguesplits.com shows him with a 56.9/15.9/24.1 GB/LD/FB batted ball profile.

Last year Ondrusek worked his way into a closer role. He had zero saves in the FSL but had seven in Double-A and 12 in Triple-A. His big season earned him a trip to the Arizona Fall League, but he struggled in the hitting-friendly loop. Ondrusek allowed 22 hits in 10 innings and had a 13.50 ERA.

It seems unlikely that Ondrusek will be a closer in the majors, given that he does not have a big strikeout rate. But the rise he made last year certainly makes for a good story and the fact that the Reds gave him a chance to close in an early Spring Training game is interesting. Right now he is a name to store away and it would not be surprising if he made it to the majors at some point in the 2010 season.

Imagine stumbling on this headline without prior knowledge of fantasy baseball. It would take quite a bit of explaining to understand that this piece will be about the starting pitchers from this list that have the best value vis-a-vis their draft position. Good thing most of you are ahead of the curve on that one.

The easiest way to find value in a tier is to just go ahead and pick the guy with the lowest ADP in the tier, and lo and behold, Dan Haren (40.24 ADP) is that guy for me in the first mini-tier. At first, there seems to be no negative in taking Haren in the early fourth round given his stature among the elite SP1s. For three straight years, he’s had an ERA below 3.33, a WHIP below 1.21, a walk rate below 1.8 per nine, and a strikeout rate over 8 per nine. Thank you, thank you, thank you and thank you. I know the cutoffs are a little random, but guess how many other starting pitchers in baseball have managed that sort of sustained excellence over the past three years. Yeah. None.

Let me stop you yeahbutters right now. I know what you’re saying. In 651 Pre-All-Star innings, Haren has a 3.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 7.45 K/9. In 575 Post-All-Star innings, he has 4.21 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and a 7.76 K/9. Those innings seem significant. I understand the yeahbutting. Here’s my rubber and your glue: Haren’s xFIP by month, career: 3.82, 3.72, 3.73, 3.54, 3.37, 3.64. I don’t see a problem here. Maybe give him a tick forward in roto leagues and a tick backward in H2H leagues where he may or may not disappear for your playoffs. But otherwise, if you want a pitcher in the first four rounds, Haren is your value.

The lowest ADP of the next tier predictably belongs to Chris Carpenter (72.73 ADP) and his elbow and shoulder held together by twine and adhesive. You’re getting a discount because of all that risk. But why should you get a discount for picking Jon Lester (58.95 ADP)? The cancer scare was a long time ago. His career strikeout rate (7.85 K/9) belies his true talent level, as a surge (9.96 K/9 last year) brought him to the top of the leaderboard in that category. Admittedly, there was some question about his walk rate (3.8 BB/9,1.31 WHIP in the minor leagues), but now he’s kept it under three for two straight years (2.82 and 2.83) and seems to have answered the question. He even had a poor BABIP last year (.323), so if he puts that elite strikeout rate together with better luck on the batted ball and the same nice walk rate – watchout hardware.

The last tier features a pitcher that is the subject of more than a few mancrushes. David G declared him an ace last year, Ray Flowers at Fanball.com likes him as an early second pitcher, John Halpin at Fox Sports thinks a gaudy win total is coming, Paul Bourdett claims to have liked him before he blew up, and you can check my Second Opinion graph for proof that I like the beanpole Rockie ace. Here’s a taste: Ubaldo Jimenez (100.58 ADP) has had better than 50% ground balls for two years in a row, and in the last two years he has improved his strikeout and walk rates each time. His fastball, slider and change all gave the Rox better than 9.6 runs in weighted value, and batters have an especially tough time with his changeup (23.2% whiff rate) and slider (19% whiff rate). He’s 26, burns worms, has nasty stuff that gets whiffs and comes cheaply. Does it get any better?

Earlier today, R.J. Anderson took a gander at Kevin Hart, a fifth starter candidate for the Pirates picked up from the Cubs last summer. Hart’s main competition for that fifth spot is Pittsburgh’s far less famous McCutchen, Daniel McCutchen.

The 27 year-old heard his name called in four separate drafts before he finally signed on the dotted line. The Yankees popped McCutchen out of Grayson County (Texas) Community College in the 47th round back in 2003, but he didn’t come to terms with the club. Tampa Bay took a flyer in the 29th round in 2004. Daniel didn’t make a deal with the (Devil) Rays, though. St. Louis fared no better after selecting him in the 12th round in 2005. Finally, the fifth-year senior (having transferred to Oklahoma) came full-circle and inked with the Yankees as a 13th-rounder in 2006.

McCutchen’s career prospects perked up following a July 2008 trade that sent him from the Yankees to the Bucs. In the Bronx, the 6-2 righty was approximately eleventieth on the starter’s depth chart. In Pittsburgh, he has a far better chance to carve out a significant role.

McCutchen has generally mowed down hitters on his way to the majors. In 261 career innings at the Triple-A level, he has whiffed 7.2 batters per nine innings, while issuing just 1.6 walks per nine frames. His FIP in the International League is 3.80.

This past year, McCutchen managed to post the second-lowest percentage of balls thrown in the IL, while boasting the fourth-highest swinging strike rate to boot.

Pittsburgh called McCutchen up last August, and he posted a 5.19 FIP in 36.1 innings covering six starts (19/11 K/BB ratio, 6 HR surrendered).

While his work in Triple-A is promising, there’s a schism between McCutchen’s stats and scouting reports. His four-seam fastball sits high in the zone at 90-93 MPH, and he backs it up with a decent low-80’s slider and changeup. In ranking McCutchen as the #21 prospect in the Pirates’ system, Baseball America mentioned that he’s an “extreme fly ball pitcher” who lacks “a true swing-and-miss pitch.”

Those fly ball tendencies are troubling. During his minor league career, McCutchen has gotten grounders just 39.1 percent of the time. In Triple-A this past season, he burned worms at a 33.6 percent clip. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that PNC Park does a number on home run production. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, PNC has decreased dingers by 12 percent compared to a neutral venue over the past three seasons.

For 2010, CHONE projects McCutchen to compile a 4.66 FIP, with 6.26 K/9, 2.52 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9. Whether he cracks the rotation out of Bradenton or not, McCutchen will likely take the hill as a starter at some point.

The “other” McCutchen won’t draw any rave reviews, though he could be useful in NL-only leagues if injuries leave you scurrying to the waiver wire. He’ll miss a modest number of bats and will occasionally get clobbered by the long ball. However, McCutchen’s stinginess with the walks and homer-suppressing home ballpark should make him an average, cheap starter.

Every once and awhile I will be reading through comments on articles and in the forums, and I’ve noticed an interest in leagues involving WAR, wOBA, etc. I’m not surprised, since this is a statistical site that uses those numbers every day. However, not enough is being said about these “strange” leagues, so I think we need to shed some light on the situation.

WAR Leagues

WAR leagues are always going to be fun and much more realistic, seeing that they actually use defense, which is just as important as the offensive side of the ball. Since UZR is involved, you can’t exactly set up a Yahoo! league to track WAR, whether you want to or not. That leaves you with two options. You can continuously call Yahoo! until they give in, or you can start your own WAR league. I’ve heard of some readers forming their own leagues using WAR, and doing a draft on their own time. This is a great idea, and the boys over at Beyond The Boxscore have a draft every year. In fact, BtB takes it one step further and uses MLB contracts and assigns each owner a $60mm salary cap. This makes drafting hard, and forces owners to put a lot of work in (I should know, I’ve done the draft each year and am actually running a league this year). These leagues aren’t difficult to run after the draft, because each owner can enter his players into his FanGraphs account and check on his team quite easily.

Real Runs

Every fantasy league has the option to use “runs” as a category, but that just counts how many times the player crossed the plate, not how many runs he actually contributed at the plate. Fortunately, there is now a very easy solution for this. In a league I am in with BtB writer JinAZ, he has set our scoring to a “wRC*10 scale”. This point system can now be found on Beyond the Boxscore, if that is something you are interested in. I have to say, I am very excited to see how the draft goes for this league, because the rankings will be different from standard rankings, though by how much remains to be seen.

The new wave of fantasy leagues will eventually be noticed, and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the “Big Three” (CBS, ESPN, Yahoo) implement more advanced stats in the coming years to satisfy their customers. Don’t forget, the more you bug them, the sooner they will be implemented.

RotoGraphs is now accepting applications for fantasy baseball writers. These are paid, part-time positions that require a commitment of five posts per week. We are specifically looking for writers with knowledge of multiple fantasy formats, who are comfortable with writing strategy-based articles.

Writers may be asked to tackle specific topics as assigned, but a big part of the job is to independently develop interesting topics and ideas on a regular basis. Strong writing skills and the ability to write clean copy are important along with a familiarity of the statistics found on FanGraphs.

To apply, please send us email with your background and why you’d like to write for us. Please include anything you think will be helpful in evaluating your application such as: writing samples, links to current blogs, fantasy experience, resume, etc….

Interested writers can contact us (David Appelman and Marc Hulet) at wanted+rotographs@fangraphs.com with the heading RotoGraphs Application 2010.

The news came down the pipe this morning that Joe Nathan has a torn Ulnar Collateral Ligament and is, in all likelihood, headed for Tommy John surgery. No pitchers in recent memory have rehabbed through a torn UCL. A moment of silence for Nathan’s 2010 season, and for all of the keeper league owners that were happy with their elite closer.

Now let’s have some fun with rampant closer speculation. The front-runner has to be Jon Rauch because of his mythical ‘experience in the role.’ Yes, because he closed for 40 innings in the National League, he’ll probably be the front runner to assume the mantle in Minnesota. Then again, one has to be concerned with his strikeout rate, which peaked in 2006 (8.47), recovered in 2008 (8.29) and dropped off a table last year in Arizona (6.30 overall). In general, he offers some nice strikeout ability (though not plus for a closer) and an above-average walk rate (2.89 career, 3.46 ‘09 ML average).

On the other hand, there’s been some change in his mix as he’s aged, and it doesn’t seem to be good news. He’s using his fastball less every year (down to 52.8% from 67.9% in 2006) and replacing it with his curveball (up from 3.3% to 15.5% last year). The problem? His fastball has been worth 17.1 runs by linear weights over his career, His curveball? -1.3. Yeah, where is that fastball going?

Could the Twins instead turn to a man with a funky delivery that has his own blog and a penchant for juicing? What about Pat Neshek? He owns a sparkling 10.56 K/9 for his career, a decent 2.76 BB/9, and despite slight gopherball problems (1.12 HR/9 career), has a sparkling WHIP (0.96). He’s coming off TJ surgery of his own, but has pitched live ball in Spring Training (2 innings, 2 Ks and 1 hit if you must know). There is a whiff of Brad Ziegler about him, but here are his splits against lefties, from our very own splits pages: 8.59 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP (good), 55.9% FB, 12.1% HR/FB, 1.64 HR/9, 4.70 xFIP (bad). This is all against 185 total lefty batters faced… this sample is not big enough to say definitively that he cannot handle lefties. This book is not closed. And since it is such a fun read, there’s at least one fantasy analyst that is banging the drum for Neshek to take over the closer’s role for the year.

What about Matt Guerrier? What about him? With a below-average 6.01 career K/9, and no corresponding excellent ground ball rate (45.5% career) he’s squarely third on this list. His .222 BABIP last year will surely regress and the Twins will once again have the okay guy they’ve always had. No closer here, despite last year’s seemingly excellent numbers.

One last note – the possibility that the closer comes from outside the organization is reasonably high. The Cubs inquired with the Jays about Jason Frasor, and because that team is rebuilding, it seems that maybe also Scott Downs might be available. Anthony Castrovince, the Cleveland Indians reporter for MLB.com, speculated on Twitter about Kerry Wood being moved to the Twinkies. These options may all be more palatable to a Twins team that wants to compete in their new stadium. Hey, they all have ‘experience in the role.’

Tampa Bay Rays signed DH/1B Hank Blalock to a minor league contract.

Blalock, 29, will earn $925,000, with $350,000 in performance incentives. According to Bill Chastain’s MLB.com article, the pact also includes an opt-out if the long-time Ranger fails to crack Tampa Bay’s big league roster.

Over the past three seasons, Blalock’s bat has been six percent better than the average MLB hitter (106 wRC+). Considering that a litany of health problems have resigned him to first base and DH, that means that Blalock (who posted 5.2 Wins Above Replacement in 2003 and 4.3 WAR in 2004) has been slightly north of replacement-level in recent years.

In 2007, Blalock missed a big chunk of the season following surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. A left hamstring injury and right shoulder inflammation put him on the shelf for much of 2008 (injury info courtesy of the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool).

This past year, the erstwhile lefty slugger didn’t hit the DL. However, he limped to a .234/.277/.459 line, with an 87 wRC+. Blalock did have some lousy luck on balls put in play: his BABIP was .249, compared to a .311 expected BABIP (xBABIP) and a career .296 mark.

Even So, Blalock did his best Mike Jacobs impression at the plate. He took a cut at 30.1 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% percent MLB average), drawing ball four in a career-low 5.3 percent of his PA. While he cranked fastballs in the past (+0.75 runs per 100 pitches during his career), Blalock was -0.2 runs below average per 100 fastballs seen in ‘09.

Should he make the Rays, Blalock figures to compete with Pat Burrell (he of a bum neck and 85 wRC+ in 2009) for AB’s in the DH slot. With nicknames like “Hammerin’ Hank” and “Pat the Bat,” Tampa’s prospective DH duo sounds like it should punish opposing pitchers (or at the very least, make a great WWE tag team). However, CHONE is none too impressed with either former famous dude:

2010 CHONE projections

Blalock: .328 wOBA, 100 wRC+
Burrell: .329 wOBA, 100 wRC+

The Rays figure to leverage the two, using Blalock against right-handers and Burrell to handle southpaws. Using a platoon projection method outlined in The Book, Matt Klaassen forecasts Blalock to post a .342 wOBA against righties and a .291 wOBA versus same-handed pitching. Using a similar method to project Burrell’s splits, I get a .334 figure against left-handers and a .316 wOBA versus righties. Even with the platoon advantage, Blalock and Burrell won’t be much above replacement-level if they perform as CHONE expects.

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here.

As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Alex Rodriguez, New York AL (.405)
2. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay (.380)
3. David Wright, New York NL (.368)

The top two players on this list are probably no-brainers. Rodriguez is coming off of an injury-delayed season but there is no reason to expect him to have any kind of setbacks related to his hip. I would certainly expect a return to his .300 batting average, as well as 35-40 homers. If healthy, a total surpassing 100 RBI is almost a given when you look at the lineup around him.Toss in 100 runs scored and 15 steals for good measure. And if you’re playing in an on-base league, don’t be surprised if he walks 100+ times given his improvements in that area last season (15.0% walk rate).

Longoria has played two (mostly) full seasons in the Majors and he has produced ISO rates of .259 and .245, which just goes to show that the kid has massive power. He’s also good for 100+ runs and RBI totals. Where he loses a step to A-Rod (in traditional leagues) is in the stolen base department and the batting average. Longoria, though, is still just 24 – 10 full years younger than Rodriguez.

Wright had a pretty bad season in ‘09; his wOBA drop from .420 in 2008 to .397 to .368 in ‘09. On the plus side, he’s entering his age-27 season so we can hope for an improvement… The biggest head-scratcher is the sudden drop in power, which many blamed on the stadium but he also did not hit bombs on the road (five homers, .144 ISO). He still has a good shot at being a 20-20 third baseman, but he may struggle to hit .300 again; his BABIP was .394 in ‘09, which helped him hit .307 despite a huge jump in strikeout rate from 18.8 to 26.2%. Hopefully the addition of Jason Bay will help, as well as a return to form by both Jose Reyes and (eventually) Carlos Beltran.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington (.377)
5. Mark Reynolds, Arizona (.381)
6. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco (.396)
7. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago NL (.392)
8. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.358)

You could argue for Zimmerman over Wright given the ‘09 season but I like the Mets lineup better than that of the Nats – which will impact run and RBI totals. As well, Zimmerman is likely to hit for a similar average but he won’t nab 15-20 steals. The nice thing about fantasy baseball is that, in most leagues, you can enjoy Reynold’s 35-40 homers and 15-20 steals without putting up with his 200 strikeouts. On the down side, he’s probably going to hit about .240 thanks to his 38% strikeout rate.

This winter, a lot has been made about Sandoval’s switch in approach and weight-loss program… Honestly that worries me a bit. I would toss him into one of those “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” categories. Too often, an unorthodox player gets screwed up when he tries to appease too many people. Hopefully I’m wrong, though, and he goes out again and hits .330 with 20+ homers. I can also hope that the addition of free agents Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff will improve the lineup, but I have a feeling their impacts will be minimal. Still just 31, it feels like Ramirez has been around forever. Injuries limited him to just 82 games in ‘09 but he almost tied his career-high batting average with a mark of .317. On the down side, his ISO rate dropped below .229 for the first time in five years.

After scoring one of the top free agent contracts in the winter of 2009-10, Figgins stands to be a little over-hyped in fantasy drafts. I’m also a little concerned that he’s eventually going to become Luis Castillo all over again as an aging speedster who loses his wheels half way through his contact (although really Castillo had lost them BEFORE the ridiculous contract). Figgins is still stealing 30+ bases each season but we have seen a decrease in his success rates over the past three seasons. He’s also topped a .300 batting average just once in his career and that was thanks to a .391 BABIP. Hopefully you’re getting enough power elsewhere in your fantasy lineup because you’re not going to get it from Figgins (.096 ISO) in 2010.

The Leftovers:
9. Michael Young, Texas (.385)
10. Gordon Beckham, Chicago AL (.351)
11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta (.354)
12. Casey Blake, Los Angeles NL (.354)
13. Adrian Beltre, Boston (.305)
14. Mark DeRosa, San Francisco (.327)
15. Alex Gordon, Kansas City (.321)

Young is no longer a lock for 200+ hits in a season but he’s still good for a .300 average and he increased his power output in ‘09. Beckham is expected to play second base for Chicago in ‘09 but he spent most of his time at the hot corner last season so he should open the year in many leagues as third-base eligible. It would be nice to see the club give him time at both positions to help his fantasy value, but it’s probably not going to happen.

Jones topped 140 games played for the first time in six seasons back in ‘09 so durability is definitely not his strong suit. His offense is also slipping so don’t expect him to hit 25+ homers or bat above .300. Beltre could see some improvement in his offensive numbers thanks to his new home park (and lineup). With that said, his OPS was .683 in ‘09. Ouch.

As long as Blake has company in the form of Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, he should continue to see some good pitches. However, he’s turning 37 this year so regression is coming… DeRosa is a nice little player because he offers some offense, as well as versatility. I wouldn’t rely on the 35-year-old for a full-time job in your lineup, though. Gordon is in need of a bounce-back year but he’s already going to be behind the eight-ball thanks to a broken thumb suffered recently.

Up Next: The Shortstops