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FanGraphs Audio: Jeff Locke on Jeff Locke's Success

by Carson Cistulli - 5/24/2013 - Comments (0)

Episode 341
Pittsburgh left-hander Jeff Locke has been worth about 1.3 wins by WAR calculated with runs allowed (as opposed to FIP) — a figure that places him between the very effective Jake Peavy and also very effective Max Scherzer by that measure. Curiously, he’s been more effective by throwing fewer strikes. Locke comments on that, and other matters, in this edition of FanGraphs Audio, live on tape from the visitor’s clubhouse at Miller Park in Milwaukee, WI.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 12 min play time.)

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The Worst of the Best: The Week’s Wildest Swings

by Jeff Sullivan - 5/24/2013 - Comments (4)

Hello there, people who wish their best qualities were more widely appreciated, and welcome to the second part of the seventh edition of The Worst Of The Best. Here is a link to the second part of the sixth edition, from last Friday. You should click on that link for purposes of brushing up. Once it’s open, you should click on all of those links. Every last one of them. You should click on all of my bold text, just to see if it’s a link. Maybe I inserted some jokes in there! Only one way to find out! Probably, there are multiple ways to find out, but this is the easiest. Just get clicking. Click click click. Click on FanGraphs links. You could learn, or something.

So where earlier we looked at wild pitches, like usual, here we’ll look at wild swings, like usual. Specifically, swings at pitches far away from the center of the strike zone, from between May 17 and May 23. Excluded are checked swings, which is always frustrating, because a lot of the crazy swings I see in the data end up being checked. Also excluded are hit-and-run swings, but so far those have just been excluded in theory, since I have yet to encounter one. It’s all based on PITCHf/x, there are .gifs and things to follow, and I hope you have an appetite for misjudged secondary stuff. We move on to the top-five list, and also, we have two bonus .gifs! Free bonus .gifs! It’s your lucky day!

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The Worst of the Best: The Week’s Wildest Pitches

by Jeff Sullivan - 5/24/2013 - Comments (4)

Hello there friends and normals and industry professionals, and welcome to the first part of the seventh edition of The Worst Of The Best. The first part of the sixth edition, from last Friday, is linked here for your convenience. Now, that was some week of baseball we just watched, starting last Friday. There were so many comebacks and close competitions, and also some scores that were surprisingly lopsided. Did you see the big game? I couldn’t believe the hits that there were. I was really impressed by the level of play, and the outcome was well earned. Maybe they will be able to build off of it going forward in the rest of the season. But one thing’s for sure: the season is long, with many twists and turns. You never know what could happen next!

This is where we talk about pitches that wound up really far from the center of the strike zone. The window we’re covering this time is May 17 – May 23. It’s a top-five list, based on PITCHf/x information, and there are going to be a lot of .gifs and screenshots. I feel like every week I end up with more image files than the week before. This series idea seemed so simple at first. Now it consumes my entire Friday. You guys get everything I have. Some pitches just narrowly missing: Rafael Soriano to Gregor Blanco on May 21, and Jeremy Hellickson to Melky Cabrera on May 22. Also, I’ve excluded a Ronald Belisario pitch to Jonathan Lucroy from May 21. Though it was the week’s third-wildest pitch, it appeared to be a fastball intentionally thrown behind Lucroy’s back, after Andre Ethier was buzzed a couple times. I can’t call a pitch wild when it’s intended to send a message. But, maybe it was an accident. A very convenient and coincidental accident. In that case, this would be my mistake. Thankfully no one holds me accountable for anything. I doubt my superiors even read this. If they do, they are charming fellows. If they don’t, they smell. Time to pull you guys back in with the start of the list. This got out of hand.

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Who Is Josh Rutledge?

by Paul Swydan - 5/24/2013 - Comments (4)

Earlier this week, the Rockies sent Josh Rutledge to Colorado Springs. To be certain, Rutledge was not playing well, and there is a decent chance that Rutledge really isn’t that good in general. Then again, he may also need to just figure out who he is. He was semi-rushed to the majors, as he skipped Triple-A, and there is anecdotal evidence that his game has changed since his hot start.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dayn Perry Mixes Business with Business

by Carson Cistulli - 5/24/2013 - Comments (3)

Episode 340
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books, now — one of them serviceable and one of them, against all odds, something more than serviceable. In this edition of FanGraphs Audio, he mixes business with other, different business.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 53 min play time.)

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The Pirates' New McCutchen

by Matt Klaassen - 5/24/2013 - Comments (40)

Perhaps the Pirates are just doing their thing. You know, the thing from the last couple of years where they start out hot despite no one having them as contenders. The thing were they inspire writers to start writing about them. The thing where they might even make some sort of minor trade near the break to push them over the top. The thing where they collapse in the second half and everyone ends up wonder if the Pirates are ever going to be good again.

But we are not to the collapse point yet. At the moment, the Pirates are 29-15 and tied with the Reds for second in the National League Central, 1.5 games back from the Cardinals. They are managing this despite giving Jonathan Sanchez four starts. A.J. Burnett, of all people, has carried the pitching staff (although Jeff Locke has also been good, ERA-wise). On offense, Starling Marte, Russell Martin, and Gaby Sanchez have been off to surprisingly hot starts, which has helped, too. The Pirates are outplaying their run differential at the moment, but those wins are in the bank, and they are currently projected to finish with 87 wins. That might very well end up looking silly at the end of the year, but for now, I’m sure Pirates fans will take it.

What is striking about the Pirates hanging in there so far this season is that they have done it without Andrew McCutchen repeating his MVP-level performance from last year, when he hit .327/.400/.553 (158 wRC+) with 31 home runs. McCutchen has hardly been bad in 2013 — .291/.353/.477 (128 wRC+) with his usual good base running is plenty from a center fielder. It is a bit surprising, as someone mentioned to me, to see the Pirates in the mix for the division without McCutchen carrying the team.

It would be worth looking at the other players mentioned above to see what is going on with them, and perhaps that is for another post. Today I simply want to see what is going on with McCutchen — what has and has not changed, in terms of his rate stats, from last year, and what it might indicate about his performance going forward.

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An Example of Yasiel Puig's Needed Development

by Mike Newman - 5/24/2013 - Comments (66)

With the Dodgers in last place and Yasiel Puig on fire in Double-A, pressure to call up the Cuban outfielder is building. In his last ten games, the 22-year-old has posted a .395/.465/.658 slash line, including seven extra base hits and six steals. Healthy and productive, Puig is once again knocking on the door to Los Angeles.

Earlier in the week, Dave Cameron discussed Andre Ethier being “eminently available” after comments and a benching by Manager Don Mattingly. Combine losing with mammoth contracts and the potential for roster shakeup seems inevitable. No individual stands to gain more than Yasiel Puig if this occurs.

But is Puig ready? From a baseball standpoint, yes. From a maturity standpoint, perhaps not.

In spring training, the baseball community saw the best of Puig on a daily basis. When one hits .517/.500/.828, there’s really no room for a cold spell. And while this provided a glimpse of his immense ceiling, baseball is ultimately a game of failure. How Puig responds to the inevitable failures that baseball pushes upon him may determine just how good he eventually becomes.

I was in attendance to watch Puig on May 8th against the Mobile BayBears (Double-A Arizona Diamondbacks), where he went 1 for 5, with his lone hit being a laser to center field, showing the tools that could make him a star. The rest of the game, however, Puig did nothing but draw negative attention to himself, beginning with a strikeout looking in the first inning. With a 1-0 count, top prospect Archie Bradley attacked Puig with fastballs on the inner half. Three 92-95 mph fastballs later and the right fielder took a slow walk back to the dugout with a runner on second and one out. Bradley is a terrific prospect, but the majors are full of pitchers who can do what Bradley did to Puig in that at-bat.

In the third inning, Puig was first pitch swinging with two outs and Joc Pederson on first base. Down four early, it’s a borderline situation to steal considering Pederson’s ability to score from first on an extra base hit and the risk of running into an out. But against a new pitcher, seeing a pitch or two would have afforded Pederson a chance to attempt a steal while Puig worked on timing him. Instead, he rolled over on an 88 mph fastball (a far cry from the 92-95 Bradley was throwing), resulting in a 6-4 force out.

Is this nitpicking? Absolutely. And while one could argue this wasn’t an example of explicitly bad baseball, it is the kind of thing that will get nitpicked once he gets to the big leagues and is asked to help turn around a $200 million disappointment.

Puig’s single was in the sixth with Pederson on second and no out. Down 4-0, there was little reason for him not to “grip it and rip it.”

After a 16-pitch walk by Pederson which included 11 foul balls, Puig faced a new pitcher with two outs and the bases loaded. After fouling off the first pitch, Puig did this after a questionable check swing strike.

Puig put the next pitch in play for another ground ball to shortstop to end the inning. Given the way in which he had just shown up the umpire, the ball could have been thrown behind Puig’s head and the umpire might have called strike three. Some umpires would not have even given Puig the chance to see another pitch and ejected him on the spot. Reacting that way to a called strike is simply poor judgment.

In the ninth, Puig worked a 3-1 count before grounding out to shortstop again. Late in the game and down by one, not running hard through first base was the stamp on a day where Puig’s body language and effort were simply not a match for his physical talents. Outside of his at bats, Puig was consistently the last player in the dugout between innings and could frequently be seen with his head in hands. In right field, he had the longest distance to run to reach the third base dugout, but breaking a slow jog at the third base line to walk the rest of the way does nothing but draw negative attention.

In this particular game, his frustration bubbled over onto the field and presented as immaturity. In fairness, many of us would struggle with similar issues if we had a $42 million dollar contract in hand at 22, and Puig is hardly the only immature kid in professional sports. But, on the big stage of the Major Leagues, this act won’t fly.

Even after the game, I witnessed Puig make a pair of kids wait 15 minutes or more for autographs as he toyed with his smartphone 10 feet away. I say “or more” because I was able to move my car, interview Archie Bradley, and the kids were still waiting as I left the ballpark. Both boys were respectful and patient while Puig went about his business like they did not exist. As a professional baseball player, one has to expect every moment at the ballpark will be scrutinized.

Baseball players do not develop the skills of a Yasiel Puig without a considerable amount of effort and determination. Without a doubt, the Dodgers outfielder wants to improve and puts pressure on himself to produce. However, he can do this without being the center of attention at all times. After all, he’s talented enough to consistently be the center of attention for all the right reasons.



Mike Newman Prospects Chat - 5/24/13

by Mike Newman - 5/24/2013 - Comments (11)



Daily Notes: Three Types of Chart Regarding Kevin Gausman

by Carson Cistulli - 5/24/2013 - Comments (13)

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Three Types of Chart Regarding Kevin Gausman
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Three Types of Chart Regarding Kevin Gausman
Introduction
Much praised Baltimore right-hander Kevin Gausman made his major-league debut on Thursday, during which he demonstrated considerable promise but also ultimately conceded four runs in five innings (box). Below are three charts and/or graphs relevant to that debut.

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Miguel Cabrera's Ridiculous Plate Coverage

by DShep - 5/24/2013 - Comments (66)

­Coming off the first batting Triple Crown in 45 years, Miguel Cabrera ­is making a bid to  be the first hitter to do so in consecutive seasons.  He currently leads the American League in batting average (.391), RBI (55) and is one home run off the pace at 14.  In a recent piece here at FanGraphs, Jeff Sullivan commented on Cabrera’s impressive all fields hitting and ability to cover the full strike zone with power.  I have put together some imagery to highlight this ability and show a bit of why Cabrera is such a threat.

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Reliever Pitching Metric Correlations, Year-to-Year

by Bill Petti - 5/24/2013 - Comments (15)

A little over a year ago I published the results of a study that examined which metrics were most consistent on a year-to-year basis for starting pitchers. My colleague, Matt Klaassen, followed up and expanded on that study recently here at FanGraphs. Matt’s study also focused on starting pitchers–those with a minimum of 140 innings pitched in consecutive years.

Recently I was asked the following on Twitter:

I can’t speak specifically to what the common wisdom is Justin is referring to, but I can certainly run the correlations for relief pitchers and compare them to what I found for starters.

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Marco Scutaro on Contact

by Eno Sarris - 5/24/2013 - Comments (9)

“I’m probably leading the league in bad contact, too.” — Marco Scutaro

We talked for a few minutes, Marco Scutaro and I, about hitting and contact before a game a few weeks back. When I told him he’s leading the league in contact rate since 2010, he offered the response above with a slight frown and a flick of the bat. He swung a bat the whole time we talked, even. But his voice never really wavered — it never betrayed either the physical effort he was putting into choosing his bat for the day or the matter-of-fact humor that accompanied his answers.

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Q&A: Joey Terdoslavich, Future Braves Basher

by David Laurila - 5/24/2013 - Comments (5)

Joey Terdoslavich isn’t worried about his low walk rate or his numbers against left-handed pitchers. The 24-year-old Atlanta Braves prospect expects those issues to work themselves out during the season. The reason? He’s a master craftsman with a baseball bat in his hands.

Terdoslavich went into last night’s game hitting .328/.349/.578, with eight home runs, for Triple-A Gwinnett. The numbers don’t come as a surprise. Outside of a rocky 53-game stretch to start last season — the switch-hitter had been double-jumped from High-A — he has always swung a potent bat. Following last summer’s demotion to Double-A Mississippi, he hit .315. Two years ago, in Lynchburg, he hit .286 and had 74 extra-base hits.

The biggest question for the 2010 draft pick is defense. He has bounced between the infielder corners since signing out of Long Beach State and is now trying his hand in the outfield.

Terdoslavich talked about his game during a recent visit to McCoy Stadium in Pawtucket, R.I.

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Another Sort-Of First for Bryce Harper

by Jeff Sullivan - 5/23/2013 - Comments (35)

Even when I’m not trying to pay attention to Bryce Harper, he finds a way to capture my focus. Last night, I was seeing off a friend on the east side of Portland, and if I’d been thinking about any sport, it was hockey, since these are the days of the NHL playoffs. A TV was being projected onto one of the walls of the bar, and at first it was showing a minor-league hockey game. Eventually it switched to baseball highlights, which eventually turned to a game between the Nationals and the Giants. The Nationals won 2-1 in ten innings, but what stuck with me wasn’t the result, but rather a Bryce Harper double.

Out of the corner of my eye, I saw Harper rip a Jeremy Affeldt delivery into right field. The ball skidded all the way to the fence, where it was recovered by Hunter Pence, but Harper pulled up at second with ease. He’d score minutes later. I’ve seen Bryce Harper double before, but this one was different. This one was an in-between grounder/line drive, and it was hit between the first and second basemen, and it made it all the way to the wall. I couldn’t remember the last time I saw something like that.

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Jose Molina Misses a Pitch

by Jeff Sullivan - 5/23/2013 - Comments (26)

It’s not right to say Fernando Rodney is back to being his old self, because right now he’s sitting on a career-high strikeout rate. But he is back to being unreliable, or at least, he has been unreliable, to this point in the 2013 season. Wednesday, in Toronto, he blew a save against the Blue Jays. He was removed after facing just three batters. The save was blown on Rodney’s sixth pitch, when Jose Bautista took him deep on an inside fastball at 98 miles per hour.

Rodney retired Edwin Encarnacion, then he walked Adam Lind. Lind didn’t score, so that walk didn’t really hurt. Lind walked on five pitches, and not on one. Certainly not on the first pitch that he saw. But I want to talk a little bit about that pitch anyway, just because. I want to talk about ball one from Fernando Rodney to Adam Lind, a 97 mile-per-hour fastball that just missed away. I know this sure seems insignificant, but baseball is insignificant, and you and I are insignificant, so let’s come together in our collective insignificance and celebrate all that ultimately doesn’t matter. Celebrate or don’t celebrate; eventually you will be dead.

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MASH Report (5/23/13)

by Jeff Zimmerman - 5/23/2013 - Comments (9)

This is a featured article from our fantasy baseball blog: RotoGraphs.

Lots of pitcher news today. Five pitchers coming back from the DL and a few others dealing with injuries.

Johnny Cueto returned from the DL and had a bit of an issue finding the strike zone. I covered him in detail earlier in the week for the main site. His velocity seems fine for now and it will be interesting to see if he eventually fixes the twist in his pitching motion.

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What Does Jesus Montero's Future Look Like Now?

by Dave Cameron - 5/23/2013 - Comments (79)

The Mariners stuck with it for 735 innings. Despite the fact that nearly everyone in baseball agreed that Jesus Montero could not catch at an acceptable level in the Major Leagues, the Mariners let him try for the equivalent of a half season spread out over eight painful months. Now, it seems like the organization is accepting the reality that Jesus Montero is not, and will never be, a Major League catcher. As of today, he isn’t even a Major League player.

The Mariners are swapping out Jesuses in their backup catcher role — Montero had already lost the starting gig to vaunted superstar Kelly Shoppach — by replacing Montero with Jesus Sucre, the polar opposite of Montero as a player. Sucre is a no-bat defensive specialist, but given Montero’s struggles on both sides of the plate, a non-prospect catch-and-throw backup is probably an upgrade at this point.

So, with Montero back in Triple-A for the foreseeable future, I figured it would be a good time to re-do an exercise we did with Montero 17 months ago, when he was first traded from New York to Seattle. At that point, we walked through a list of comparable bat-first prospects who reached the Majors at an early age, noting that players of this type have turned into superstars, but that the median forecast based on similar prospects called for Montero to turn into a good hitter, not a great one. I ended that piece with the following paragraphs:

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The 2013 Cubs: Better Than We Think

by Dave Cameron - 5/23/2013 - Comments (46)

This morning, the following tweet from Gordon Wittenmeyer showed up in my timeline.

I hadn’t noticed this specifically, but once he said it, I did start to wonder about the Cubs record. After all, they’re getting quality offensive production from the likes of David DeJesus, Anthony Rizzo, Nate Schierholtz, and Luis Valbuena. Jeff Samardzija continues to look like an ace. Scott Feldman is living up his billing as the bargain free agent starter of the winter. Travis Wood is having a lot of success, even if it’s not all sustainable. Even after their early bullpen problems, Kevin Gregg has revitalized his career and has yet to give up a run in 11 innings of work.

With so many things going right, how are the Cubs 18-27? And, as Wittenmeyer’s tweet notes, are they actually playing better than their record suggests?

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Eno Sarris Baseball Chat -- 5/23/13

by Eno Sarris - 5/23/2013 - Comments (7)

8:54
Eno Sarris: Sorry! Just a bit behind. But I’ll be here in six minutes.
9:01
Eno Sarris: lyrics of the day. prove you didn’t google it by telling me what the dude’s last two projects were. Okay that’s probably too hard.

In New Delhi (smelly Delhi) and Hong Kong
They all know that it won’t be long
I count my fingers (digit counter) as night falls
And draw bananas on the bathroom walls
The killer cycles (humdrum), the killer hurts
The passage of my life is measured out in shirts
Time and motion (motion carried) time and tide

9:02
Comment From Maxamuz
Let’s start this chat out with a quick Lucas Duda blurb. He is hitting .320 over the past 7 days.
9:02
Eno Sarris: Phew.
9:02
Comment From Geoff
Best minor league stash for this year other than Myers? Taveras, Yelich, Wheeler, or someone else?
9:02
Eno Sarris: If they trade Ethier, it’s Puig. Love his combo of power and contact.

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Daily Notes: Kevin Gausman Preparedness Manual

by Carson Cistulli - 5/23/2013 - Comments (48)

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Baltimore at Toronto, 19:07pm ET
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Baltimore at Toronto, 19:07pm ET
Regarding This Game, Who’s Starting It for Baltimore
Starting this game for Baltimore, in terms of a pitcher, is Compelling Baseball Prospect Kevin Gausman. The appearance will mark Gausman’s first in the majors.

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WAR: Batters
Miguel Cabrera3.2
Joey Votto2.9
Evan Longoria2.7
Carlos Gomez2.7
Manny Machado2.7
WAR: Pitchers
Anibal Sanchez2.8
Adam Wainwright2.7
Clay Buchholz2.6
Max Scherzer2.3
Felix Hernandez2.3
WPA: Batters
Brandon Phillips2.55
Shin-Soo Choo2.49
Miguel Cabrera2.47
Chris Davis2.43
Joey Votto2.39
WPA: SP
Clayton Kershaw2.47
Patrick Corbin2.40
Clay Buchholz2.26
Jordan Zimmermann2.12
Chris Sale1.97
WPA: RP
Edward Mujica2.48
Mariano Rivera1.96
Grant Balfour1.75
Mark Melancon1.71
Addison Reed1.63
Fastball (mph): SP
Kevin Gausman96.5
Stephen Strasburg95.4
Matt Harvey95.1
Garrett Richards95.0
Jose Fernandez94.7