This morning I was scrolling through some of Dan Szymborski’s projections over at Baseball Think Factory, and I noticed that he had run a projection for Matt Stairs. I had not heard any news about the guy we all know now as a pinch-hitter. As I scoured the internets (read: typed “Matt Stairs” into Google) I quickly realized that Stairs had retired, though since he will be a studio analyst for NESN this year, all is not lost. Still, it will be disappointing to not see him on the field any longer.
Few pinch hitters struck fear in my heart the way Matt Stairs did. When Stairs came to the plate against a team for which I was rooting, I always sure that something bad was about to happen. Even still, I couldn’t hate him. A portly slugger with a great sense of humor -- I will always remember Will Carroll forwarding the Baseball Prospectus email group an email from Stairs with a picture of his flexed calf muscle and promptly doubling over in laughter -- Stairs was exceedingly easy to root for, and in the latter, pinch-hitting days of his career he became somewhat of a nerdy folk hero.
Read the rest of this entry »Episode 136The Washington Nationals recently signed Edwin Jackson to a one-year, $11 million deal. Does the addition of Jackson make the Nats a contender? How would the definition of "contender" change if a second wild-card playoff spot were installed? Also, the Baltimore and Colorado trade: what's the deal with that? Managing editor Dave Cameron answers all these questions unblinkingly. Don't hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter. You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things. Audio after the jump. (Approximately 39 min. play time.) Read the rest of this entry » Stop me if you think that you've heard this one before. According to Nick Cafardo, both Mark Prior and Brandon Webb are on the comeback trail once again. Everybody knows Prior's story by now. A former second overall pick, Prior had a tremendous 2003 before injuries started to derail his career. He last pitched in the majors in 2006, and posted a terrible 6.56 FIP in just 43.2 innings. Since then, Prior has bounced around to different minor league teams, trying to recapture some of his old magic. His former pedigree continues to get him chances, but things don't look promising for Prior. Following sports hernia surgery, Prior will begin working out for teams in March. Webb's last meaningful game took place on opening day 2009. Following five straight seasons with at least 200 innings pitched, the former Cy Young only last four innings before succumbing to a shoulder injury. Since shoulder surgery, Webb has failed to regain his velocity. He'll throw for teams at some point in March in hopes that someone will give him one more chance in the bigs. Both players have some history of elite production in the majors, otherwise, this would be a non-story. While it would be a great narrative if either player made it back to the big leagues, the odds are stacked against them. Here's hoping for the best for the former aces. Brad Penny's career in American professional baseball may not be officially over quite yet, but it has been put on hold. The 33-year-old right-hander will instead pitch for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (as passed along by Patrick Newman) during the 2012 campaign, and his contract contains an option for 2013 as well. Penny's performance in 2011 -- a 5.30 ERA and a 5.02 FIP thanks to a staggeringly low 3.7 strikeout rate -- made him look like a 43-year-old rather than a 33-year-old. It isn't long ago that Penny was starting an All-Star Game -- 2006, opposite Kenny Rogers of all matchups -- and although maybe his selection as an All-Star starter was an odd one, Penny deserves some recognition for his performance from 2001 through 2007. Read the rest of this entry »The Washington Nationals have been making headlines lately with big such as trading for Gio Gonzalez and getting a one-year deal with Edwin Jackson. They were even rumored to be in on the Prince Fielder sweepstakes. Some of the Nationals' other moves understandably have garnered less attention, such as minor-league deals for veteran outfielders Mike Cameron and (more recently) Rick Ankiel. While these are low-risk deals that may turn out to be bench insurance, given some ambiguities about the Nationals' outfield situation, Cameron and Ankiel could form a nice stopgap platoon in center field that would allow Washington to protect other, more significant investments. Read the rest of this entry »Ideas for this post came from conversations with Dave Cameron on recent episodes of FanGraphs Audio. Most scouting info is courtesy Baseball America.Allow me to establish immediately that the title of this post is, in part, disingenuous: insofar as every player is unique, there is no "Next Michael Pineda." There are pitchers who will surprise us with their success in 2012, for sure -- some of them in a way similar to how Michael Pineda surprised us in 2011 -- but none of them, obviously, will do it in precisely the same way that Pineda did. Having said that, allow me to also submit that Michael Pineda absolutely represents a type of pitcher who is perhaps more likely to succeed than we (or, at least, than the present author) has, at one point, assumed. To get a sense of what I mean, let's consider the relative prospect statuses, over the last three years, of Pineda and the player ( Jesus Montero) for whom he was traded this offseason. Read the rest of this entry » Toward the end of his weekly Sunday notes column for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo included the following write-up on John Lannan: Lannan, 27, is a terrific option as an end-of-the rotation starter now that Washington has signed Edwin Jackson. There is a lot of speculation that the Nationals will deal him to the Angels for center fielder Peter Bourjos, with Mike Trout on the way to play that position in Anaheim. But the Nationals could also move Jayson Werth to center and sign a right fielder. It now appears that Yoenis Cespedes is not in their plans and they have cooled on B.J. Upton. Lannan, who went 10-13 last year with a 3.70 ERA and a (high) 1.462 WHIP, would be a good option for a team like Boston, but the Red Sox don’t seem to have the center fielder to give back, especially with Ryan Kalish unable to play until June. “It doesn’t have to be a center fielder,’’ said one major league source. “They don’t have to get a center fielder in that deal as long as they get a center fielder some other way. The Red Sox make a lot of sense.’’ Again, with emphasis added: There is a lot of speculation that the Nationals will deal him to the Angels for center fielder Peter Bourjos...Read the rest of this entry »The Chicago Cubs have long been connected to Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes this winter, but last week, they came to terms with another Cuban free agent, 19-year-old left-hander Gerardo Concepcion. Concepcion flew under the radar for the majority of the offseason. The focus has been on the higher ceiling Cubans, which left much of the baseball community slackjawed at the $7M price tag the Cubs had to pony up to land the southpaw. Teams simply do not spend that much money on a prospect that is largely considered to be nothing more than a back-end starter … tops. That is, unless one factors in the fact that international spending will now be capped, starting this upcoming July. Rick Hahn, Assistant General Manager of the Chicago White Sox, predicted a week ago that teams would be “extraordinarily aggressive on Cespedes, Soler and Concepcion” due to the upcoming limitations. He turned out to be right on the money. Read the rest of this entry »This morning, the Rockies traded away Jason Hammel, a starter who has posted relatively high BABIPs over most of his career. While his .280 BABIP last year doesn't look so bad, the distribution of when those hits came (.272 BABIP with bases empty, .291 BABIP with men on, .300 with RISP) - along with the .327 overall mark he posted in the prior two seasons - led to the Rockies souring on his abilities and shifting him to the bullpen in August. Hammel was just the latest in a string of pitchers who have fallen out of favor with the Rockies due to high BABIPs, as the team traded away Ubaldo Jimenez and Felipe Paulino during stretches of allowing hits last year, and had decided not to bring back Jeff Francis last winter due to his proclivity for giving up base hits. Eventually, though, the Rockies are going to have to realize that it's not the pitchers, it's the park. Here are the BABIPs for all pitchers at Coors Field for each of the last 10 years, and where that ranks relative to the other parks in that specific year. Read the rest of this entry »This is a trade that just doesn't make sense to me: The Rockies and Orioles are nearing an agreement that would send starter Jeremy Guthrie to Colorado, most likely for pitchers Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. (MLB Trade Rumors) Let me preface this by saying that I like Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Hammel more than most people probably do. After watching Guthrie pitch in the AL East for the past five seasons, I'll be glad to see him go. Despite his underwhelming strikeout numbers and flyball tendencies, there are some nights where he pumps his fastball up around 95 MPH (with good movement) and can shred through opposing lineups. My eyes are overly optimistic on Guthrie, though, as the reality is that he's a 32-year-old starter that doesn't generate many whiffs and is only around a +2 win pitcher. He's no ace, but he's still a valuable pitcher to have. The same can be said about Jason Hammel. Since being traded to the Rockies prior to the '09 season, he has racked up +9 wins over three seasons. He comes with his share of question marks -- his strikeout rate plummeted in 2011, and his ERA has always outpaced his peripherals due to a high BABIP -- but considering he will be 29 years old this season, he has the potential to be better than Guthrie. His 4.37 career SIERA is better than anything Guthrie has posted over the past five years, so you can argue that the Orioles are getting an excellent buy-low starter in this deal. Whether Hammel lives up to that potential...well, we'll see. But here's what I don't understand: what do the Orioles and Rockies get out of this trade? Read the rest of this entry »It shouldn't have been difficult for Kenny Lofton to find work after the 2007 season. He hit .296/.367/.414, played decent defense and tallied right around 3 WAR. He stole 23 of 30 bases, posted his first walk rate at 10 percent or higher since 2002, and managed to play in 136 games despite being 40 years old. His batting line was almost identical a year earlier with the Dodgers, and he posted 4 WAR a season before that with the Phillies. Age wasn't slowing Lofton down, but as with any player that age, his performance could crater at any moment. For that reason, teams were hesitant to offer Lofton a lucrative major league contract, if even for just one season. Though he was still potentially a very productive player, none of his offers made sense and he chose to retire. The Rays were interested but nothing materialized, and Lofton walked away after two seasons in which he averaged a .299/.364/.408 slash line, a .347 wOBA, 27 stolen bases and 2.2 WAR. His forced retirement was indicative of a changing game. Players were being viewed under a different lens, and to most, guaranteeing a 40-year old a major league roster spot was too risky. Whether teams were off-base with that assessment of Lofton is certainly debatable, but it signified the end of a trend. Older players couldn't simply use their name power to get a guaranteed gig, and the teams that might have expressed interest are those the players likely wouldn't consider to begin with. The choices left on the table were retirement or to accept a minor league deal and vie for a spot in spring training. At least four veterans, two of whom are going to the Hall of Fame, fit similar bills this offseason. Skills and remaining talent vary across the quintet, but they represent the type of player who would have been signed to a contract at this point no fewer than five or six years ago. Will any of Johnny Damon, Derrek Lee, Ivan Rodriguez, or Vladimir Guerrero latch on somewhere this year? Read the rest of this entry »This may seem odd, but Todd Coffey is one of my favorite relievers in baseball. I have this thing for middling, fringe-y relief pitcher -- Casey Fossum has stolen my heart -- and there's just so much of Coffey to love. How can you not love a teddy bear like him, especially considering he's an underrated asset? Read the rest of this entry »Per the Urban Dictionary, the phrase "hot mess" means, "When ones thoughts or appearance are in a state of disarray, but they maintain an undeniable attractiveness or beauty." When scouting Junior Lake during the Southern League playoffs, his game was part car wreck, but I simply could not help but be enamored with his tools. Rocket arm. Explosive hand speed. Plus runner. Other than the way he actually played baseball, there was nothing not to like. Read the rest of this entry »Baseball sometimes seems as if it is the most unchanging of the major sports. Maybe that is the case now, but as anyone (like me) with even a slight interest in baseball history knows, baseball has made changes in its rules many times over the years. That is part of the reason discussions about potential rule changes are interesting -- they not only stimulate the mind grapes, but also have a basis in the real history of the game. Moreover, some of the ideas are not necessarily new, but involve a hypothetical return to yesteryear. In the wake of the concerns about home run records being "tarnished" by PEDS and, horror of horrors, the designated hitter, it is worth remembering that the home run rules, like almost everything else, have not always been the same. Certain older rules cost some hitters home runs. However, some rules also gave players more home runs. It is the latter I want to discuss today as a possible rule change. What do you think? Would you be in favor of allowing what are not ground rule doubles to be ruled as home runs? Read the rest of this entry »After remaining relatively quiet all off-season, the Cleveland Indians have been busy in recent days. They signed Casey Kotchman to a one-year contract yesterday, and it appears they're working away at locking up their young shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera is a bit of an enigma. It's not that he's a dark and mysterious character -- although this leaves some room for debate -- but that his performance over the past few years makes him a difficult player to project. He had a down year in 2010 after breaking his arm early in the season, but he was a +3 win player in both 2011 and 2009. In both of those years, though, there were some questionable spikes in his stats; his 2009 performance was helped along by an unsustainable .360 BABIP, and his 2011 "breakout" was fueled by a dramatic increase in his homerun rate (13.3% HR/FB). Read the rest of this entry »This edition of the player-profile game is appearing at 11:30am Central Time because the author is an idiot.As announced Wednesday, FanGraphs will once again be offering to the public its fantasy companion guide, The Second Opinion. We'll have more details on the guide -- set to be released on Monday -- very shortly. In the meantime, however, we're playing the player-profile game I intoduced in these pages a couple offseasons ago. The game is easy: one person (me, in this case) offers the text of single player profile, being careful to omit any proper names that might reveal the identity of the player in question. The other person (you, the reader) attempts to identify the player using only the details provided in the profile. First reader to guess correctly (in the comments section below) gets a free copy of this year's Second Opinion -- approximately a $1000 value! Today's entry comes in form of three shorter profiles. To answer correctly, respondents must identify all three players. Because of the difficulty of this round, multiple attempts are allowed. If no one has the correct answer by 1pm ET, we will select the closest answer. Read the rest of this entry » Much like fingerprints, no two off-seasons are exactly alike. Every year develops at its own pace and has its own quirks, and this year is certainly no exception. Multiple Scott Boras clients have signed one-year deals, hoping to get more interest next season. One of the top players on the market didn't sign until late January. The Florida Marlins were one of the high-rollers at the Winter Meetings. And in the wake of Edwin Jackson signing with the Washington Nationals, we're left with another oddity: an over-supply of starting pitchers in February. At the moment, there are at least four pitchers available as a free agent or on the trade block: Roy Oswalt (4.04 SIERA in 2011) John Lannan (4.47 SIERA) Jeff Niemann (3.79 SIERA) / Wade Davis (4.83 SIERA) Kyle McClellan (4.36 SIERA) Oswalt is easily the best free agent starter that has been available as late as February in a few years. John Maine was the best starter signed after February 1st last off-season, and Livan Hernandez and Chien-Ming Wang were the two hot February acquisitions back in 2010. And back in 2009, the list was just as paltry: Adam Eaton, Jorge Vazquez, Livan Hernandez, and Brett Tomko. Come February, the trade market for starting pitchers is also normally bone dry. Dana Eveland was traded in early February of 2010, and the Rays traded away Jason Hammel in April of 2009. Outside of that, the only other significant starting pitchers to get traded this late in the off-season were Johan Santana and Erik Bedard back in 2008. How many teams currently need starting pitching? The Red Sox certainly do, and it appears that the Orioles, Indians, Blue Jays, and Cardinals have all been searching to some degree. The Mets could also use to add a starter, right? But as we get down to the wire, it feels like there are fewer and fewer teams clamoring to add starting pitching, while the market for starters is (relatively speaking) flooded. Of course, the market isn't quite as straightforward as it looks. Oswalt doesn't appear to want to sign with the Red Sox, and the Rays aren't going to be willing to sell low or trade in-division with either Niemann or Davis. Meanwhile, Lannan and McClellan are both average-to-below-average pitchers that will be due a few million each this upcoming season. Will this market end up being more favorable to teams interested in buying or selling starters? It's difficult to say, but based on the recent past, this looks like an unusually strong buyers market. All sizes of FanGraphs T-Shirts are now back in stock! Huge thanks to all those who have already bought them to show their support for the site! If anyone has ideas for what they'd like to see on future FanGraphs T-Shirts, please send us a note via our contact form. There has been a poll up on Joe Posnanski’s blog for quite some time now asking his Brilliant Readers which pitcher they would rather have for four years if they were an MLB owner with $100 million burning a hole in their pocket – Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, or Yu Darvish. The question arose due to the expectation that Yu Darvish would cost whichever team acquired him a number in this range. In the end, the Rangers ended up shelling out $111 million over six years for the Japanese star. Obviously, a poll can only display so much information because it does not allow voters to lay out their arguments for and against each pitcher. Fortunately, we here at FanGraphs can provide that opportunity through our comments section. What follows below will be a brief summary of each pitcher, and then hopefully a spirited debate in the comments. 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