Word from CBS Sports's Scott Miller is that Matt Capps will be heading from Washinton to Minnesota. Going to the nation's capital from Minnesota's capital will be AAA catching prospect Wilson Ramos.

Matt Capps has had a solid season, including an All-Star appearance, coming off of a questionable non-tender from the Pittsburgh Pirates. He's not quite as good as his 2.80 ERA or 25 saves would suggest, but all of his peripherals suggest that he is an above average reliever. He misses about as many bats (9.4% swinging strike rate) as the average reliever but has good control, walking fewer than two batters per 9 inning both this year and for his career. Capps has also increased his ground ball rate about 7% so far this season, and as ground ball rate stabilizes relatively quickly, that is a great sign going forward. ZiPS projects a 3.69 FIP going forward, which is good for roughly 0.3-0.4 WAR for the rest of the season.

The Twins already carry Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, and Ron Mahay, who all have FIPs below 4.00. However, only Mahay has an xFIP below 4.00, suggesting that their FIPs are either aided by HR luck or the effects of Target Field, which aren't known exactly yet. Capps likely becomes the best reliever on the team, and should enter the closer's role immediately. Capps won't be a huge upgrade over Rauch, but due to the effects of bullpen chaining, the addition of Capps helps the entire bullpen.

It does seem pretty disappointing, however, that Capps is the return for Ramos after he was rumored to be half of a trade for Cliff Lee. Ramos, 22, is struggling at AAA but had a very solid 21 year old season in AA, hitting .330/.352/.447. That kind of bat could play well at catcher, and his skills will be covered in greater depth in the other side of this trade analysis.

This one's pretty simple for the Twins. They upgrade the front end of their bullpen, but at the expense of a promising talent at catcher. Just as far as the short term goes, the Twins obviously come out ahead, as Capps is a solid reliever and immediately becomes the best on the team. He's not a great reliever, though, and the effect probably won't be as high as his low ERA would suggest. I just wonder if the return for Ramos could have been more.

The Astros picked two hitters in the first round of the 2010 draft: a toolsy up-the-middle player with boom-or-bust written all over him (Delino DeShields Jr.), and a college slugger with defensive versatility, if not defensive talent (Mike Kvasnicka). In 2009, the team's first pick was a toolsy shortstop from California (Jiovanni Mier). In 2008, the first year that scouting director Bobby Heck helmed the draft room, the team took a "safe" college hitter in the first round (Jason Castro), before going for a raw, toolsy high school outfielder in the second round (Jay Austin).

Pardon if this is repetitive, but by trading Roy Oswalt to the Phillies today, the Astros acquired a Dominican shortstop with some raw, exciting tools (Jonathan Villar), and a former first-round slugger whose been relegated to first base (Brett Wallace). Clearly, Houston believes in a certain kind of diversification of their prospect portfolio. This is a good thing. The bad thing is that they don't seem particularly adept at talent evaluation. Let's ignore the fact that Kvasnicka is struggling out of the gate, or that Jiovanni Mier has a .610 OPS in his full-season debut, or that Jason Castro's offensive potential seems lower than ever.

The Astros have simply not added a single position player to their system with star potential in Bobby Heck's tenure. Not a single player mentioned above is ever going to profile as someone that could contribute 5 WAR in the Major Leagues. Trading Oswalt was one of the team's few opportunities to find its next star, and they didn't do it. This is a team mining for role players when they don't have the budget to find their foundation pieces through free agency. It's terribly misguided management.

Villar is a fun prospect, a switch-hitting athlete with the rare combination of speed and arm that should allow him to stick at shortstop. But he doesn't profile to hit for power, strikes out very often, and will need to learn a lot to develop some patience. Stars don't ever have to overcome that many obstacles. Brett Wallace is a smooth swinger that most people believe can hit .300 at the Major League level. But he's not even a good defender at first base, his walk rate isn't improving, and in 869 plate appearances in Triple-A, his ISO is just .185.

The Astros didn't need to acquire three players for the Roy Oswalt trade to be a success. They needed to acquire one star, and it's hard to imagine a future where Villar, Wallace or even J.A. Happ reach that level.

Certainly, the best chance at someone doing so is Villar. It isn't a stretch to believe the toolsy shortstop could develop patience down the road, as he entered this season with 47 walks in 410 career plate appearances. This season, in his first test at full-season baseball, the ratio has slipped to 6.2%. But there is potential there. Scouts also like Villar's defensive actions, even despite his 42 errors in 99 games. Errors are a part of minor league baseball, but with his speed and arm, sticking at shortstop should be easy. He also should become a very good baserunner, capable of adding 5 runs per season with his legs.

The problems in Villar's game are all offensive. His career strikeout rate stands at a robust 27.4%, so for example, this season he's needed to maintain a .369 BABIP just to post a .272 batting average. Even with his speed, this won't be easy to maintain at higher levels. Secondly, Villar really doesn't have a swing that profiles to hit a lot of power. Minor League Splits has his groundball rate at 60.7% this season, so he'll need a change in both swing and approach to hit for power. It's just not going to happen. Even if Villar has 600 plate appearances at shortstop, and even if he develops into a +7.5 shortstop and +5 baserunner, I don't think we'll ever see him at the +10 wRAA mark he would need to reach 5 WAR.

Wallace is pretty much just the opposite. His game is so dependent on offense, that even getting to 2-3 WAR consistently will be an issue. After Lance Berkman moves out of Houston, Wallace is the future at first base. He's not good there, and is surely somewhere worse than 2.5 runs below average. To even reach 3 WAR, he'd have to produce 25 runs with the bat to be worth three wins. And given the fact that he's never walked 50 times or hit 25 home runs in any season, getting to a .370 wOBA seems impossible.

Houston didn't do well today. With their best chance to finally acquire a player they could build their future around, they acquired two players with role player ceilings.

Tomorrow, we'll tackle the Wallace-for-Gose swap, as well as Wynn Pelzer, the Baltimore Orioles acquisition for Miguel Tejada.

Naturally, the Yankees were in on the Dan Haren discussions until the very end. Supposedly, the package that they were putting together centered around Joba Chamberlain. Given that the Diamondbacks eventually took the Joe Saunders and prospects package put together by the Angels, one has to assume that Arizona simply wasn't impressed by Joba Chamberlain. Truly, relievers with a 5.86 ERA typically aren't centerpieces in trades for aces, but Joba isn't having a typical season this year.

We can quickly point out that Chamberlain has a 3.02 FIP and a 3.48 xFIP, both very solid numbers out of a relief pitcher, especially given that Chamberlain has entered games in high leverage situations this season: his gmLI (average entrance LI) is 1.31, a typical number for a setup man. He's not showcasing the ridiculous ability to miss bats that he did when he first came up, but his K-rate is still over a batter per inning, and a walk rate below four is plenty to make a good reliever.

It just hasn't come together this season, as far as results. Chamberlain is getting killed on contact, as hitters have a .393 BABIP against him. It's not like hitters are just roping line drives, either - the line drive rate is slightly down this season, and just under half of all batted balls against Chamberlain have been ground balls. If anything, a low IFFB rate of 2.3% would explain some of this success, but not nearly all of it. tERA, which is based on batted balls, still rates Chamberlain highly, at 3.28.

The difference between Joba's 5.86 ERA and his 3.04 FIP is 13.5 earned runs in his 43 innings pitched so far - and that's ignoring the fact that a big portion of Chamberlain's inflated ERA is due to the fact that he would have gotten more outs if his BABIP was closer to average. These 13.5 runs can be largely attributed to two splits.

Runners on 2nd/3rd: 6 PA, 2 1B, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 runs scored
Bases loaded: 5 PA, 1 2B, 1 HR, 6 runs scored

In 43 innings, a few bad pitches with runners on can drastically inflate your ERA. Joba Chamberlain has pitched extremely well this year by almost every metric. He has struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings in high leverage situations. Even if he's not living up to his original hype, he is still a valuable player. The Diamondbacks shouldn't have been scared away by his mammoth ERA, nor should the Yankees or their fans worry about Joba's future, particularly in the bullpen.

The Florida Marlins woke up this morning with a less than 5% chance to make the playoffs. Jorge Cantu is two months from free agency, and at the last check, will not be ranked highly enough by Elias to award free agent compensation. If there was value to be had for Cantu, any at all, the Marlins had no choice but to get it. With all that said, it's hard not to like the two prospects the Marlins acquired from the Rangers today, Evan Reed and Omar Poveda.

Poveda is the more familiar name in prospect circles, despite a six-year career with only one stop (second tour of Midwest League, 2007) yielding an ERA below 4.00. He has not pitched in 2010 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The thinking is that an injured arm altered Poveda's performance in 2009, where his K/9 essentially was halved.

The Venezuelan right-hander never had a particularly good fastball, so there has to be some concern that he'll return to the mound without a heater to speak of. If so, it's unlikely to project that he'd be able to carve out a big league career. But, he was a guy that had a feel for a change-up and curveball, and will likely come out of the gate pitching backwards. It's not a sexy career path, and it's an unlikely one to work, but again, it's a near-free shot in the dark for Florida.

The better chance at providing actual value to the Marlins is Evan Reed. A third-round pick in the 2007 draft, the Rangers drafted the Cal Poly closer with the intention of making him a starting pitcher. Doing so for the 2008 season was a bit of a disaster -- between the California League and pacing himself, Reed lost his abilities to strike people out and keep the ball in the park. It clearly was misguided, and the Rangers acted swiftly last year, moving him back to the closer role. Reed responded with a 12.0 K/9 and 0.2 HR/9. He was over his head in the Arizona Fall League, however, allowing three home runs in limited work.

Up to Double-A this season, the results have been excellent. Reed comes after people with his 92-94 mph fastball, and is now commanding it at the best rate of his career. He's groundball heavy on his best days, and never seems to allow home runs. It's highly likely that Reed contributes at the Major League level in the seventh and eighth innings. He will be ready to join the Major League team sometime between the middle of next season and Opening Day 2012.

Evan Reed will produce more WAR with the Marlins than Jorge Cantu will with the Rangers. And anything that either Reed or Poveda ever provides will be gravy, considering the Marlins tenuous spot in the NL East standings.

The gates that opened for Chris Davis once Justin Smoak arrived in Seattle are once more closed today as the Texas Rangers have acquire Jorge Cantu for two minor league arms. Davis himself really can’t complain. He hit .188/.265/.267 in his 113 plate appearances this season. Nobody believes that represents his true talent level, but the Rangers are in the midst of a division chase. One that just saw Dan Haren join the other side of the fray.

So, the Rangers turn to Cantu. He’s hitting .259/.308/.408 this season and his projected line is .265/.320/.420. He’s not Adrian Gonzalez or even Travis Hafner, but in the short-run – which in this case is the next two months – he should be an improvement over what they had. Now given that we have about 40% of the season left and some wild things can happen in smaller sample sizes, there’s a chance Cantu has an abysmal period and misses that projected mean entirely.

The good – well, sort of good – news for the Rangers is that he would have to be pretty awful to match their first base production to date. Smoak, Davis, and the occasional appearance by Joaquin Arias and Ryan Garko have combined to hit .197/.296/.315 this season. OPS is hardly the best statistic for judging offensive production, but you could knock .100 points off Cantu’s current OPS and he’d still out produce the Rangers’ first base group.

The other good news is that the Ballpark in Arlington is as hitter friendly as they come. Cantu has a limited history of big first seasons with teams which is probably just a coincidence but could be construed as a sign that he might struggle with focus. He’s got the chance to reach the playoffs for the first time in his professional career and he will also reach free agency after this season. Motivation should be no thing; instead, it should be everything within him.

Don’t make the mistake of crowning Cantu as a savant, though. He is not mystically aware or knowing. He will not be reciting epics on playoff plane trips because of his own doings. The Rangers will continue to ride and die with their pitching, defense, and more relevant batters. He is simply a moderate upgrade for a probable playoff team. Nothing more or less.

(And please note that I am assuming Cantu will not play second base in Ian Kinsler’s absence. He has not played that position since 2007.)

It's been four months since MLB did something noteworthy with their playoff schedule, when they announced in March that they were cutting one off day in the middle of the LCS. A very minor change -- deleting that off day didn't actually move up the start date of the World Series -- but a step in the right direction. Now comes an even more welcome announcement: the 2011 World Series will start earlier after all, and Opening Day will come a few days early to ensure that the World Series will be concluded by the end of October.

This requires breaking with tradition ever so slightly, so that Opening Day for most teams would be Friday, April 1, rather than on a Monday. If it's approved, the first official games of the year will be played March 25 and 26 in Taiwan, of which Yahoo! Sports's Kevin Kaduk disapproves: "Opening day should always occur on American (and Torontonian) soil." Moving up Opening Day allows them to move up the playoff schedule by a week, so that the World Series will begin on October 19, 2011; this year, it's scheduled to start on October 27.

There are a lot of off days, but, as I said in March, MLB is hamstrung by Fox's needs. Fox spent $3 billion for the right to broadcast the World Series through 2013, and so Fox Sports essentially writes the game schedule. In order to maximize ratings, Fox tries to avoid broadcasting games on weekends, and prefers to avoid Friday night World Series games whenever possible -- so off days are written in around those preferences.

Rob Neyer throws further cold water on the happy news, pointing out, "The difference between the weather on November 4 and the weather on October 27 is not, generally speaking, going to be a whole lot different, and there's a reasonable chance it will actually be better on the 4th... Essentially, they're trading potentially lousy weather in a few postseason games for potentially lousy weather in a few dozen regular-season games." That's similar to what Dan McQuade of Walkoff Walk points out is an "insanely weird defensive quote from the head of Fox Sports," Ed Goren: "I've been in cities where the weather is awful in mid-October, and beautiful the first of November. So if we're playing Game 7 of the World Series on Oct. 28, and it's snowed out, don't blame baseball."

We get it. But baseball's supposed to be played from April to October -- the very first World Series ever took place from October 1 to October 13, 1903, when Deacon Phillippe led and the Pittsburgh Pirates over lost to Bill Dinneen and the Boston Americans. MLB will have to go back to the drawing board in 2013, when the next World Baseball Classic is planned, but for now it's nice to know that the 2011 season will end some time in October, as it should.

Before we can fully understand Houston's motive in dealing Roy Oswalt, we have to answer a number of questions. Just a couple off the top of my head:

1) Was moving Oswalt necessary from a payroll standpoint? Follow-up: For 2010, 2011, 2012, or all of them?

2) Do they realize his peak value now, while teams battle for playoff spots? Or would they be able to work out something perhaps more favorable to the club this winter, when they don't have a looming deadline?

Then there's the obvious question of the value they got in return. For the most part these questions will require us to speculate. But with the information we have available we can at least make informed speculations.

Was moving Oswalt necessary from a payroll standpoint?

Since they appeared in the World Series in 2005 it seems like the Astros have tried to spend their way into a return trip. That year their payroll sat at $75.8 million, but it jumped all the way to $92.5 million in 2006. Of course, since they bumped the payroll they haven't made it back to the playoffs. The spending, it seems, has come in the wrong places.

In 2009 the Astros had a payroll just shy of $103 million, more than $10 million above their previous ceiling. It bought them only 74 wins. They were able to shave $10 million off that number for 2010 due to the departures of Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and a few others. Still, a $92 million payroll is a bit high for the results the team has produced. Ditching Oswalt's remaining 2010 salary, plus his 2011 salary and 2012 buyout, will help them start the rebuilding process.

Yet that's not the whole story. The Astros sent $11 million to the Phillies as part of the deal, which covers all of the roughly $5 million he's owed for the remainder of the season, plus more than a third of his 2011 salary plus option buyout. In other words, the Phillies will pay $10.5 million for a year and two-plus months of Oswalt, while the Astros will pay $11 million for him not to pitch for them. If that seems a bit odd, it is.

Given the evidence, it doesn't seem like moving Oswalt was a financial necessity. But given the team's current composition, both in the majors and on the farm, it was probably a wise move to deal their most expensive player. He likely wouldn't be around for the next contending Houston team, so they might as well try to get the most they could for him. That leads us nicely into the next two questions.

Is this the best time to deal Oswalt?

Intuitively it seems like a team in the midst of a pennant race would pay more for a high-quality player than a team in winter remodeling mode. They have more at stake, and therefore might be willing to pay a premium for a player that can help them. That goes especially for a player under contract for the following season and beyond, since they'll be able to realize further value from him. But as we've learned from years of following the game, intuition doesn't always provide the correct answer.

Only small number of teams become buyers in July. We're past the halfway point, and while few teams have outright given up on the season, that doesn't mean that they'll do something foolish and trade prospects for a player who, while helping the team, won't put them in the playoffs. It also seems like many, if not most, teams are butting up against their payroll limits, which further limits the market. Dealing in July, then, means finding a team desperate enough to pay even though they know the competition is reduced. Dealing in the winter opens the floor to more teams, not only because everyone is a contender in the winter, but because teams will have more payroll flexibility, at least early on.

With Oswalt the situation becomes a bit more complex. The Astros included a full no-trade clause in his contract, which even further reduces the market for his services. He clearly didn't want to leave Houston -- he was one win short of tying the franchise record, and, well, he got the NTC into his contract for a reason. Houston was limited in any dealing with him, deadline or not. It does seem, though, that they were down to one or two possible teams. That rarely makes for a robust return.

We'll never know what Houston could get if they chose to wait until the winter to deal Oswalt. They still would have had the issue of the NTC, and there's no telling whether Oswalt would have waived it if the deal didn't send him to a contender. Since it's easier to identify a contender now than it will be in the winter, perhaps they did do the best they could. Without knowing definitively, I'd have to lean that way when making a judgment.

Did Houston get enough in return?

Given all the above, it doesn't seem like Houston was in line for much of a return. By himself Oswalt is a valuable player, a No. 2 pitcher who has been an ace in the past. He's signed only through his age-33, which helps his prospects, but that's still a large contract whether deserved or not. That no-trade clause further limited the situation. Even a team that seeks to add a starter knows that Houston is in a bind.

The ideal return for Houston was high-ceiling, low-level players. Keith Law ranked their farm system No. 28, so it doesn't look like they have much of an immediate future. As he notes, though, their new scouting director, Bobby Heck, has assembled some decent talent during the past few years, so Houston might be back in contention by, say, 2012 or 2013. Picking up guys playing A-ball, then, could be the best course, since they'll be nearing readiness at that point.

The centerpiece of the deal, though, not only has major league experience, but already has over a year of accumulated service time. J.A. Happ spent all of 2009 with the big league club, and his 47 stray days in 2007 and 2008 will probably make his short minor league stint this year moot. That is, he'll almost certainly have two years of service time at the end of this year, meaning the Astros get him for one year at a mid-six figures salary before heading to arbitration for three years. That can be good, though, since he'd have some experience when the team is ready to contend again.

Baseball America rated Happ the Phillies No. 9 prospect heading into the 2009 season, noting that he "lacks a standout pitch and doesn't figure to get all those strikeouts on fastballs as easily in the majors as he did in Triple-A." That rang true in 2009. After striking out 8.9 per nine in 2007 and 10 in 2008, Happ struck out just 6.45 per nine in 2009. He doesn't have a great walk rate, but he has generally kept the ball in the park despite a fly ball tendency. He has pitched just 15.1 major league innings this year because of a forearm strain that kept him on the DL from mid-April until recently. He hasn't had problems with that part of his arm since he missed 15 days in 2007 with elbow inflammation.

The other two players in the trade, Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar, are both 19-year-olds playing in A ball, Gose in advanced and Villar in low. Of the two Gose is the better prospect, ranking No. 6 in the Phillies' system per BA and seventh on Marc Hulet's list. Yet he's irrelevant at this point, because he's been traded to Toronto. That leaves the return from that trade plus Villar. Or Villan. Whichever you prefer, I guess.

Update: Houston received 3B/1B Brett Wallace from the Blue Jays. This, I think, changes the equation a bit. From what I've heard the consensus is that Wallace will end up at first, which gives the Astros a replacement there should they decline Lance Berkman's 2011 option. Hell, it might even open up a trade for Berkman before the deadline, though that does sound unlikely. Hulet ranked Wallace the Blue Jays' No. 1 prospect and BA rated him No. 27 overall. Wallace has hit for more power this year in the PCL, though he's walked a bit less. In any case, he's another player who will be in place, with some experience, when the Astros are rebuilt. This changes the trade for sure, making it look a bit better from Houston's perspective.

Baseball America ranked Villar the Phillies No. 22 prospect, saying that he "has as much upside as any Phillies infield prospect." He showed in 2008 that he'll take a pitch, walking in 11.8 percent of his PA. Yet this year he's cut that rate almost in half, all the way down to 6.2 percent of his 420 Sally League PA. He has also gone from striking out in 22 percent of his PA to striking out in 24.5 percent this year. These are not uncommon trends for a developing 19-year-old, but it's troubling when BA says that he'll need to work on his contact and he suddenly starts making less of it. Again, either Smith or Hulet will have a fuller look at him.

The bottom line

We finish right where we started, with two questions about the deal.

1) Did Houston get players that will help them more than Oswalt?

2) Could they have gotten more?

To No. 1, we're not sure. Happ is a nice pitcher and should present an upgrade to the remaining rotation. He has four more years of team control and could still be around when the team climbs towards the top of the NL Central. He's no Oswalt, but he'll be there while Oswalt probably would have bolted after 2011. Villar and whomever the Astros get for Gose might not work out, but they give Houston a few more chances. That's no small consolation for a team that spent years with the worst farm system in baseball.

To No. 2, we don't know for sure. Looking at the Dan Haren trade, it doesn't look like teams are sacrificing much in exchange for veteran pitching. Haren was a more attractive target than Oswalt for a number of reasons, and realistically Houston might have gotten a better return. I'd certainly put my money on Happ over Saunders, even more so when you consider service time and salary. Perhaps Houston could have found a few more suitors during the winter, but that was no sure thing. From all appearances Houston wanted to get rid of Oswalt, and sending him to a contender mid-season seemed like the best vehicle for doing so.

I've seen plenty of comments which suggest the Astros got fleeced in the deal. In a vacuum this might be true, but we know that nothing in baseball operates in a vacuum. There are plenty of other considerations, and I think I covered them in this article. What I think it boils down to is what Patrick Sullivan of Baseball Analysts wrote: "At some point, if enough sellers 'get fleeced,' it's just the market." Considering what we've seen so far, I'd say that's the case.

"If this was Strasmas, we got coal in our stockings."

My friends just got married a month ago, moved into their new home together a week ago, and so they did what any newlywed couple who met in college in Atlanta would do: they checked to see when Stephen Strasburg would make his next start against the Braves -- Tuesday, July 27, the calendar said -- and then they drove four hours to Washington to watch. I rushed home from work to meet them and take the stadium-bound Metro, which was packed to the gills with red-shirted and red-capped Nats fans, nearly all of them wearing some variation on Strasburg #37.

We joined the crimson sea of fans pouring into the stadium, and took our seats at 7:04, just in time to see the pitcher warming up. And just in time to notice that the cleanshaven Latino on the mound did not bear much resemblance to the 6'4", goateed Strasburg. Realization dawned on us all at the same time. There would be no Strasmas this week. He'd felt sore during his warmup pitches just a few minutes before we arrived, and the team quietly yanked him. Nationals Park, which was filled by 40,043 Strasburg-enrapt fans that night, echoed with boos of confusion and outrage.

The fill-in was Miguel Batista, a wry 39-year old, who understood the fans' dismay: "Imagine if you go there to see Miss Universe and you end up having Miss Iowa, you might get those kind of boos. But it's OK," he told the AP. "Miss Iowa" is putting it mildly: he hadn't started a game in two years, and has a career record of 96-110 and an ERA of 4.53, in 16 seasons for eight different organizations. (The real Miss Iowa took the analogy in stride: "It was kind of a diss at first. But I think that I'll handle that.")

Batista, somehow, then he led the last-place Nationals to victory over the first-place Braves. The sea of red quickly came over to his side as he quieted the Braves for five innings, and my Braves fan friends went from nonplussed to depressed. It's somehow more thrilling to watch a phenom blow your team away with 100-mile an hour fastballs than it is to watch a geezer lull them to sleep with moxie and guile. "If this was Strasmas, we got coal in our stockings," my friend's wife told him. Nats fans must have felt the same way today, when they learned he was making his first trip to the DL. Still, on Tuesday night, the fireworks roared at the end of the game, and Nats fans discovered a new kind of Strasmas: the one where they win on a day that Strasburg didn't even pitch.

Reports are that the deal is done, and the Phillies have acquired Roy Oswalt. Regardless of why it was necessary, this looks like a pretty big win for Philadelphia.

In exchange for J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose, and Jonathan Villan, the Phillies get Oswalt and a reported $11 million to offset a large part of the money he's still owed. As a result, it looks like Philly will get Oswalt through 2011 for about $12.5 million total. Even with his back problems, he's worth quite a bit more than that.

Oswalt isn't the workhorse ace that he used to be, but the Phillies already have one of those. On a inning by inning basis, he's still one of the better pitchers in baseball. After years of decline, he's actually posting his highest strikeout rate since his rookie year. He won't throw 220 innings a year anymore, but when he's on the mound, he'll get hitters out with regularity.

I'd estimate that Oswalt should give the Phillies about +5 wins of value over the next year and a half. Given their status as a playoff contender on the bubble, the marginal value of a win to their franchise is higher than the league average as a whole. So, while they're paying about $2 million per win for Oswalt, they'll be getting something closer to $5 or $6 million per win in on field value, thanks to their increased playoff odds.

Overall, Oswalt should add $10 to $15 million in value above and beyond what the Phillies will pay him. For that value, they surrendered Happ and the two minor leaguers. I'll let Bryan Smith tackle the prospects with more depth, but suffice it to say that no one thinks they mortgaged their future here. Happ is a back-end starter, and while he has some value as a league minimum guy for the next couple of years, he can be replaced.

Oswalt represents a significant upgrade to their rotation, and gives the Phillies a legitimate chance of running down the Braves for the NL East title. Because they were able to get Houston to cover so much of his salary, he'll also reinforce their ability to contend again next year. That's a lot of improvement for not much surrendered from Philly's perspective.

Setting aside all the context that made the Phillies need Oswalt in the first place, this has to be seen as a good move for their franchise. They got a quality pitcher at a below market price without putting the long term future of the franchise in danger. Kudus to Ruben Amaro for this deal.

I'd imagine most of us have probably lived on a shoestring budget at one point in our lives, buying what we can afford rather than what we'd actually like to have. Top Ramen has built an empire by capitalizing on people in that situation. So, while the Dodgers acquisition of Scott Podsednik may not be the sexiest move ever, it's what they can afford. And, for what it cost them, it's a deal worth making.

Podsednik is more of a role player than an everyday guy, but he's good enough to be a useful part timer on a team that needs one. And, more importantly, he gives the Dodgers a reason to stop using Garret Anderson.

It's hard to overstate how bad Anderson has been this year. He's been worth -13.8 runs in just 112 plate appearances, a historically awful offensive performance. He's just completely finished as a major leaguer, but because he has the veteran label, Torre has continued to use him.

When Manny Ramirez returns, Podsednik will be able to fill the role that Anderson has been taking up, and he's good enough to give them a decent fill-in while Manny's on the shelf. He's no kind of star, but his combination of speed and contact skills make him a decent enough hitter, and he'd be a pretty nifty pinch-runner if the team makes it to the playoffs.

I'm sure the Dodgers would have preferred to be in on Dan Haren, Cliff Lee, or Roy Oswalt, but the divorce kept them from shopping in the high rent district. Given the minimal financial cost and what looks to be a low price in terms of prospects, this is a pretty decent job of bargain shopping. The Dodgers get something that makes them better, even if only incrementally, without paying a high price.

Baseball Info Solutions has just released a more comprehensive FAQ on their fielding system, which we list on FanGraphs as DRS (and the various components that make up DRS).

It goes into details about how they make adjustments for various positions, ball hogging, home runs saved, the Green Monster, player positioning, etc....

Click to read the FAQ