Yesterday, Brian Kenny and I spent a few minutes talking about relief pitchers on Clubhouse Confidential, and specifically, about the differences in the role of a middle reliever versus a closer. Both Kenny and I believe that the idea of a "closer mentality" is mostly a myth, but we do spend some time talking about why some guys aren't cut out for the traditional closer role. If you want to watch the segment, I've embedded it after the jump, and will expand on one of the things I said on the show below that. Read the rest of this entry »Jorge Posada officially announced his retirement earlier this week, to the surprise of no one who was following the baseball beat the last few weeks. The career Yankee may have finished with a whimper, but his career was mostly a series of bangs with which FanGraphs readers are probably familiar. From my perspective, it often seemed that Posada was under-appreciated in his prime. However, the force of nostalgia (even for relatively recent eras) seems to be asserting itself a bit as some are arging that Posada should make the Hall of Fame. A short blog post is not the place to address every aspect of one player's Hall of Fame case. What peeks my interest is the idea that while the shape of Posada's Wins Above Replacement total and peak may not measure up to the average Hall of Fame standards, he may merit more consideration because WAR is somehow unfair to catchers. Obviously, if you hate WAR and similar metrics, you probably are not going to read much further. But even if you are open to them, you might think they have limitations, perhaps such as this one. For this post I simply want to argue that while there are some anomalous cases with respect to using the WAR to measuring Hall-worthiness, such as the case of great relief pitchers, I do not think that the same is true of catchers like Posada. Read the rest of this entry » The organization has some true star power at the top of its minor league depth chart but things begin to peter out after the Top 3 prospects and the cupboard is rather bare by the end of the Top 15. The downside to the system is that the majority of the high-ceiling talent is currently in A-ball or lower so it will be a little while before the fan base begins to reap the benefits of the organization's renewed emphasis on in-house development. 1. Gerrit Cole, RHP BORN: Sept. 8, 1990 EXPERIENCE: None ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (1st overall), UCLA 2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA The Pirates organization entered the 2011 amateur draft in an enviable position with the first overall selection. The club had its pick from a number of high-ceiling players and ultimately chose Cole. It's easy to see the move working out well for the organization as long as the right-hander can stay healthy (and there are no red flags... or even yellow for that matter). Cole, who has been a top prospect since his prep days and actually turned down the Yankees as a first rounder in '08, has the chance to develop into a No. 1 starter and could get to Pittsburgh in short order. The California native's repertoire includes two strikeout pitches: a 92-97 mph fastball and a slider. He also features a solid changeup. Expect Cole to open 2012 in either high-A or double-A and he could reach the Majors by year's end - unless the club wants to be cautious with his service time. Read the rest of this entry »This is a featured article from our fantasy baseball blog: RotoGraphs. Prior to 2010, former Boston Red Sox and current Texas Rangers prospect Roman Mendez entered the season with significant helium. After falling flat in his first taste of the South Atlantic League, Mendez was dealt as part of a package for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and became a reclamation project for the Rangers organization. Fast forward a season and Mendez is once again a pitching prospect to watch after posting a 3.06 FIP in Hickory including a stellar 10 strikeouts per nine innings. The young right hander also drastically improved his control as his walks per nine fell from nearly five in 2010 to a shade under three and a half this past season. With Mendez earning mid-summer buzz once again, I ventured three hours to Greenville to scout him versus Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Jacobs, and the rest of the single-A Red Sox. Video after the jumpRead the rest of this entry »In his recent FanGraphs interview, Manny Acta said that Lonnie Chisenhall is “going to probably be the most important piece of the puzzle in our infield.” The Indians skipper was referring primarily to the young third baseman’s defense, but he obviously will have to produce with the bat as well. Despite Chisenhall’s less-than-impressive rookie numbers -- .255/.284/.415, in 223 plate appearances -- that isn’t expected to be a problem. The former first-round pick went into last season rated as the top prospect in the organization, with Baseball America calling him “one of the best pure hitters in the minors.” Chisenhall talked about his approach to hitting when the Indians visited Boston last August. ------ David Laurila: I first talked to you in 2008 when you were playing in the New York-Penn League. How much have you changed as a hitter since then? Lonnie Chisenhall: I don’t think I’ve changed all that much. I do have a better feel of what to do in certain counts -- what I’m going to get and things like that -- so I can take advantage in hitter’s counts. I used to be basically see-the-ball-hit-the-ball, but now I’m up there with a better plan. I’m putting myself in better situations. But I don’t think that my stance or swing has changed too much. DL: How would describe your hitting approach? Read the rest of this entry »The relief market is a hotbed for unusual activity during the off-season. This winter, the Philadelphia Phillies got the party started with its signing of Jonathan Papelbon to a four-year, $50 million contract. Since then, Philadelphia's former closer, Ryan Madson, signed a one-year deal worth around $8 million with the Cincinnati Reds — and their former, former closer, Brad Lidge, just inked a one-year, $1 million agreement with the Washington Nationals. In addition to that trio, Matt Capps received a $4.75 million salary to return to the Minnesota Twins, and Fernando Rodney got $2 million from the budget-conscious Tampa Bay Rays. But one of the few relievers who could not find guaranteed millions – or even a guaranteed contract – was Dan Wheeler, who signed a minor league contract with the Cleveland Indians. Read the rest of this entry »When Prince Fielder accepted a $214 million contract to play for the Detroit Tigers for the next nine years, it was hard to escape the obvious: Detroit is where he first came to prominence in baseball, famously hitting a home run over the fence as a teenager while his father was on the big league team. Detroit is where Cecil experienced his greatest success, of course, as his 51-homer season in 1990 was the only 50-homer season between George Foster in 1977 and Albert Belle in 1995.* * Of course, while there were only three 50-homer campaigns in the 29 seasons from 1977 to 1995, there were 22 such campaigns in the 12 seasons from 1996 to 2007.He appeared to have a good childhood with his father. Read the rest of this entry »With 29.2 Wins Above Replacement in the past six seasons, Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman has the 11th-most WAR during that period. You read that right: 11th. That's more than Adrian Gonzalez. More than Jose Reyes. More than Mark Teixeira. More than Adrian Beltre. I don't know about you, but I was surprised by that. And I spend a lot of time on the FanGraphs leader boards. But there are at least three people (actually, I'm sure there are many more) who know exactly how much WAR Zimmerman accumulated in the past six seasons: Zimmerman, his agent and Nationals' general manager Mike Rizzo. Zimmerman has played his entire career with the Nationals, and he's said publicly that he'd like to finish his career with the Nats. His current 5-year, $45 million contract -- which covered his last three years of arbitration-eligibility (from 2009 to 2011) and will cover his first two years of free agency (2012-2013) -- expires soon. The deal was heavily back-loaded, so the Nationals will pay Zimmerman $12 million in 2012 and $14 million in 2013. Both sides have expressed interest in getting a new, long-term deal done now and are believed to be close on terms. But Zimmerman will table any extension talks once spring training begins. That leaves a three-week window to negotiate a new agreement, or wait until next winter. Read the rest of this entry »On the tail end of my scouting trip to Savannah, having an opportunity to see the Lexington Legends was well worth extending my stay considering the potential to scout three of the Houston Astros first round picks in second baseman Delino DeShields Jr., third baseman Mike Kvasnicka and pitcher Mike Foltynewicz. And while "Folty" was not in the cards, the two first rounders, power hitting first baseman Telvin Nash, as well as former second round center fielder Jay Austin provided me with considerable video and scouting material. With the late 1980's and early 1990's serving as my prime in terms of baseball card collecting, I'm no stranger to Delino DeShields Sr. wreaking havoc on the base paths for a handful of teams including the now defunct Expos, Dodgers, Cardinals and Orioles. In Deshields Jr., both father and son share the same defensive position, approximate draft slot and reputations as speedsters. However, it was fascinating to see just how different father and son were in terms of body type and fluidity of movement. In reflecting on both, the comps to one another seem quite lazy once tools and skills are actually considered. Video after the jumpRead the rest of this entry »For those of us who do not watch the transaction wire, anxiously awaiting the Tampa Bay Rays' next acquisition (I say "us" as a matter of formality, for by the mere presence of this article we can ascertain I am not among those abstainers), last night the Tampa Bay Rays came to terms (terms yet-revealed) with infielder Jeff Keppinger. The former Houston Astros / San Francisco Giants middle man has already a full litany of research on him. My double-colleague Erik Hahmann (Fangraphs and DRaysBay) examined Kepp and his similarity to also-targeted Ryan Theriot; Marc Topkin -- after the signing broke -- said "lefty mashaz!" (so to speak); Rob Neyer said "don't forget he can't hit righties"; and then Jason Collette said: "Let's regress those platoon splits."Ultimately, the final question must be this: How is Jeff Keppinger -- who seemingly shares the same strengths as Sean Rodriguez -- in anyway useful to the club? Read the rest of this entry »Tim Lincecum has done more than enough during his career to merit a big contract. But after reportedly turning down a five-year offer worth "at least $100 million" — and instead opting for a two-year, $40.5 million extension with the San Francisco Giants — it appears Lincecum will wait to sign that huge free-agent deal. Lincecum has been one of the best starters in baseball since his debut -- winning back-to-back National League Cy Young awards in his first two full seasons -- and he's definitely in line for a big payday. But given pitchers' unpredictability, Lincecum's decision to play the free-agent market could come back to haunt him. Read the rest of this entry » Episode 131Today's guest is Craig Robinson. Of Flip Flip Fly Ball. Of the internet. Craig is a Britisher who (a) cares deeply about baseball and (b) lives in Mexico City. In this episode, we learn wherefore and why. Also discussed: R. Kelly's "Feelin' on Your Booty (Remix)". Don't hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter. You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things. Audio after the jump. (Approximately 38 min. play time.) Read the rest of this entry » Update: Today's maintenance has been completed!
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—The Orange County Register In case you missed this news earlier in the week, David Eckstein is leaning toward retirement. He hasn't officially declared yet, but considering Eckstein didn't play at all last season — and he doesn't seem too excited about the offers he has received — it appears that it's only a matter of time. Sooooo... does David Eckstein belong in the Hall of Fame? Don't make me laugh. But if I were constructing a Hall of People-Who-Were-Important-To-Sabermetrics, Eckstein would be one of the first players I'd add. Read the rest of this entry »As expected, there were two basic responses to yesterday's news that the Tigers had agreed to pay Prince Fielder $214 million over the next nine seasons: 1. "That's just way too much money." 2. "As long as he helps them win, the cost is irrelevant." I'm part of the group that says the former, as I simply don't think that the Tigers are going to get a very good return on their investment in Fielder, and if they had this kind of money to spend to upgrade their roster, I think there are far better ways they could have used that money to produce a better team overall. However, while I think the second point ignores the fact that signing Fielder wasn't the only option available to to the Tigers, I understand the desire to focus on total wins rather than cost efficiency. After all, the point of baseball is to win a championship, not to finish first in the $/WAR standings. Efficiency is a method to help create a championship caliber roster, but it isn't the goal in and of itself. And, those that argue in favor of the deal are arguing from a premise that holds some truth - the Tigers were absolutely in a position where each marginal win is significantly more valuable than the average. I referenced the win curve theory in the post yesterday, but it's worth expanding on briefly. If you're not familiar with the concept of the win curve, this article by Vince Gennaro from 2007 is a good place to start. I'll highlight one of the important passages: Read the rest of this entry »Right-hander Francisco Cordero sat on the sideline as every other available closer on the free agent market found employment this winter. On Tuesday afternoon, however, it was reported that the 36-year-old native of the Dominican Republic agreed to a one-year, $4.5M deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. He is expected to serve as the set-up man for the newly-acquired Sergio Santos, which will be the first year in a non-closer role for Cordero since he set-up for Ugueth Urbina for half of the 2003 season. Dave Cameron adroitly illustrated why Cordero was left on the outside of the closer’s market looking in -- mostly due to a troubling decline in the ability to miss bats over the past few years -- in this article. It’s beneficial for the Blue Jays that Cordero will not be relied upon to be the team’s closer, because that declining strikeout rate was not the only red flag raised in 2011. The vast chasm between his 2.45 ERA and 4.02 FIP last season has been well-documented, but the other major concern stems from what appears to be a huge improvement from last year: his walk rate. Read the rest of this entry » |