These five players made their Major League debut yesterday. While they didn't necessarily help their team by WPA standards, like those we profiled this morning did, you can bet all of them will in the future.

Yonder Alonso, 1B/LF, Age 23, Cincinnati Reds.

Debut: -.002 WPA. Checked his swing and accidentally made contact with the ball, grounding out to the pitcher.

2010 Minor League Season: .290/.362/.458 over two levels. Hit .267/.388/.406 (.367 wOBA) in 121 PA at Double-A, and then hit .296/.355/.470 (.365 wOBA) in 445 PA at Triple-A.

Thoughts on Future: Alonso's future in Cincinnati obviously depends upon his ability to play left field at an acceptable level. If I'm being cynical, I have to say that it strikes me as unlikely that Alonso will be a serious power threat at the big league level. He centers the ball well and makes plenty of hard contact, but his stance/swing don't seem ideal for home run power. He should be a high doubles hitter, though. It's also time to start wondering about his future versus left-handed pitchers. He's hit them at just a .245/.319/.370 clip in his career, and the presence of guys like Jonny Gomes or Chris Heisey make you wonder if staying in Cincy will mean a platoon career. Must stay patient going forward, as Triple-A represented the lowest walk rate of his career.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Age 20, Atlanta Braves.

Debut: -.033 WPA. A nice move by Bobby Cox to start Freeman in his debut over Derrek Lee, who would enter the game in the eighth. Freeman had two plate appearances against Mike Pelfrey, grounding out to shortstop and lining to third base. He struck out against lefty reliever Pedro Feliciano in the sixth.

2010 Minor League Season: .319/.378/.518 (.387 wOBA) in 519 PA at Triple-A.

Thoughts on Future: He's going to be good. The Braves seem committed to go with Freeman everyday next season, and are going to have quite the pair of sluggers in their lineup for the next five seasons. Freeman might actually have better contact skills than Jason Heyward, though I don't see his power potential being quite as high. There will be a learning curve against lefties, like we saw in the Feliciano at-bat, but you certainly aren't going to think about platooning him for awhile. If we want to play the fun arbitrary end point game, in Freeman's last 73 minor league games, he hit .367/.426/.589, as a 20-year-old, in Triple-A. Sorry fans of the following teams: Mets, Phillies, Nationals, Marlins. It's all up-hill from here.

Lucas Duda, LF/1B, Age 24, New York Mets.

Debut: -.059 WPA. Drawing Tommy Hanson for your debut is no walk in the park, and it wasn't for Duda. He flew out to center in 2 plate appearances against Hanson, before striking out against Jonny Venters in his final at-bat. The Braves kept him pretty busy in left field, but nothing happened of note.

2010 Minor League Season: .304/.398/.569 over two levels. Hit .286/.411/.503 (.411 wOBA) in 197 PA at Double-A, hit .314/.389/.610 in 298 PA at Triple-A.

Thoughts on Future: For Duda to be a regular in New York, it means he either supplants Ike Davis at first base (unlikely), or one of Jason Bay or Duda has to play right field. Which is scary in its own right. But if the Mets could make it work, it's looking more and more like they might have found quite the sleeper in Duda. He never fulfilled his power potential at USC, but is enjoying a breakout season in that regard with 23 home runs to date. Like Alonso, I'm still a bit of a skeptic, both about his ultimate power projection, and his future as a possible platoon player. But he's patient, and he's worked hard on making better contact, and all credit is due to the Mets player development (and scouting) staff.

Brian Bogusevic, 1B/LF/CF/RF, Age 26, Houston Astros.

Debut: -.099 WPA. Hit a fielder's choice groundball to first base in a fifth inning pinch hit appearance. Stole second base off Suppan/Molina, would score tying run on Hunter Pence home run.

2010 Minor League Season: .277/.364/.414 (.359 wOBA) in 575 PA at Triple-A. 23-24 SB/ATT.

Thoughts on Future: It's too bad the Astros don't profile to be competitive soon, because Bogusevic would be a perfect bench player on a playoff team. Very good baserunner and solid defender (with a good arm, thanks to his failed career as a pitcher) at four positions. He's a tweener offensively, without a lot of power, but with too many strikeouts to sustain a high average. I root for the guy and admire his career path, and I would hope a team could see he's a better option than someone like Scott Podsednik, but that's about it. Perhaps if he can prove more worth in center field than is currently thought he could be a useful starter, but otherwise, an admirable bench player is where he profiles.

Desmond Jennings, OF, Age 23, Tampa Bay Rays.

Debut: -.138 WPA. The Rays employed what R.J. Anderson termed the "Stallionaire outfield" yesterday, and the Blue Jays were so scared of it, they didn't hit a ball to the outfield until the sixth inning. At the plate against Shaun Marcum, Jennings struck out once and grounded out twice.

2010 Minor League Season: .278/.362/.393 (.355 wOBA) in 458 PA at Triple-A. 37-41 SB/ATT.

Thoughts on Future: I joked in a recent podcast that Jennings is up this month to job-shadow Carl Crawford, but in a sense it's true: everyone knows that Crawford won't be back in Tampa, and that Jennings will be a regular atop the lineup next season. Jennings will be quite good in that role: he's patient, he's a great baserunner, he makes contact with the baseball. The hope that he'd develop some more power seems a bit unfounded -- I doubt he'll ever surpass the .170 ISO he had last year in Double-A, but he doesn't need it to be a better replacement for Crawford than anything they could find on the open market.

How do you make a bad team worse? By moving its best players to other teams. We see this every year at the non-waiver trade deadline. Contenders seek upgrades. Non-contenders seek a return on the veterans who won't be part of the future. The pairing is almost perfect. Contenders load up for the short-term, while non-contenders build with the next two or three years in mind. Of course, that leaves in question the matter of the current season for the non-contending club.

Realistically it doesn't matter whether a team wins 65 games or it wins 70 games. Either way it's a sub-.500 season and it will almost certainly mean a top 15 draft pick the following year. Why, then, do some teams hold onto the veterans whose contracts will expire before they will reach the point of contention? Off the top of my head I can think of a few reasons:

1. They want to keep the player close so they can re-sign him and make him part of the franchise's long-term outlook.

2. They think they can get a better return on the player at a later date, perhaps in the winter when more teams will vie for his services.

2a. The available trade proposals don't match the potential of the compensatory draft picks.

3. They're afraid that trading the player signal surrender and cause fans to stop attending games.

The Nats actually used all three reasons to explain why they didn't trade Adam Dunn. All year we've heard about the team's desire to sign Dunn long-term, we've heard GM Mike Rizzo say that he didn't receive any acceptable offers, and we know that the team wanted to win as many games as possible even though the playoffs have been an impossibility since sometime in May. If Dunn signs elsewhere this off-season the Nats can fall back only on No. 3, and considering their spot in last place that's a tiny consolation.

The Astros took an opposite approach this July. They entered the month 31-48 and had no hope of a come back. Sure, they made runs after being 35-41 on July 1, 2005 and 40-43 on July 1, 2008, but this was a considerably deeper hole. At least in those years they were within 7.5 games of the Wild Card. This year they were 13.5 back, and considering the roster composition there was simply no chance for a comeback. This led the team to make available its highest profile players, Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman. Before the month was over the Astros would deal both.

Trading Oswalt acted as the precursor for trading Berkman. The Astros received J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose, and Jonathan Villar in exchange for Oswalt, and then flipped Gose to the Blue Jays for 1B Brett Wallace. With an MLB-ready first baseman on hand, the Astros could then flip Berkman and get out from under some of his remaining salary. They didn't receive much from the Yankees, though Mark Melancon was a once-heralded reliever who might find success in his new environment. The trades helped the Astros in the short-term, in that it saved them some money, and in the long-term, since they have young, cost-controlled players in place of older, more expensive ones. But there is that pesky thing called winning, and the trades looked to hurt the Astros in that department.

Berkman played his last game for the Astros on July 29. That means from July 29 through now they have played without their two franchise-defining players. At that point the team was 42-59, 3.5 games behind fourth-place Chicago, 14 games behind the Reds and Cardinals, and 15.5 games back in the Wild Card. Not that any of that mattered. The Astros were just playing out the season and hoping they might learn something that they can use in assembling next year's club. But instead of flipping on cruise control, the Astros went on a tear.

Since Berkman's final game the Astros have gone 20-12, playing spoiler to many NL contenders, including their division rivals the Cardinals. They leapfrogged Chicago a while back and now sit 5.5 games ahead of them. They've even caught Milwaukee and are currently tied with them for third in the Central. How does that happen? How does a team lose two of its best players and play better than they did with them on board? The answer, at least in this case, is that the Astros' improvement started while Oswalt and Berkman were still on the roster.

The Astros' season couldn't have started any worse. They went 8-14 in April and then fell even further, going 9-20 in May. That left them with the worst record in the NL by 2.5 games. They had scored 13 fewer runs than the next closest NL team, and were 75 behind the next closest after that. June didn't appear to be much friendlier, as their interleague schedule included two series against Texas and one against the Yankees. But the Astros made it through at a .500 pace even though they had a -22 run differential. That appeared to be just the start. In July the Astros went 13-11 with a +3 run differential. Then, sans their stars, they went 17-12 in August with a +17 differential. They're currently 1-0 in September.

They have accomplished this by improving on both sides of the ball. In the rotation Wandy Rodriguez has come on strong after a rough start. Through his first 14 starts he had a 6.09 ERA, though his 4.29 FIP suggested it wasn't solely bad pitching at fault. In his latest 13 starts he has a 1.65 ERA and 2.50 FIP, lasting at least six innings each time. He has allowed more than one earned run just three times in those 13 starts. Oswalt was the team's best pitcher at his time of departure, a 3.42 ERA and 3.39 FIP, which amounted to 2.7 WAR. Happ took his place and while his FIP is a bit higher, 3.65, his ERA is a bit lower, 3.32. He has so far produced 0.7 WAR in his seven starts.

On offense the Astros did more than replace Berkman with Wallace. In fact, that was a considerable downgrade. Berkman wasn't having the greatest year, but he did appear to be recovering from knee surgery. His wOBA rose in each month this season, peaking at .392 in July. That amounted to 2.0 WAR. Wallace has been worth -0.3 WAR since his arrival. The difference has been made in a number of places, most noticeably with Jeff Keppinger, whom R.J. wrote about this week, and Chris Johnson, who has been on a BABIP-fueled tear since taking over at third base for the uninspiring Pedro Feliz. Hunter Pence has also recovered after a slow start. He produced a .372 wOBA in July and .376 in August, helping power a once punchless Astros offense.

By most indications, the Astros are playing above their heads. Based on simple run differential they're behind both Milwaukee and Chicago. Baseball Prospectus's third-order wins have them in that position as well. There is no doubt that some of their players, Johnson most notably, are hitting at unsustainable rates. It doesn't mean much for next year. The Astros are still a few years and a number of lucky breaks away from pulling back into contention. But they've managed to make something out of what was a season lost from the very beginning.

Over the last few days we've taken a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers from 2009 to this season in terms of WAR. Today we'll check out four players who could have made one of the respective lists but weren't included.

OF Andres Torres
2009 WAR: 2.0
2010 WAR: 5.7

I was initially reluctant to include Torres because his wOBA has actually dropped from last season and he was on pace for 4 WAR over 150 games in '09. However, the small sample size last year gave light to critics doubting if the former Puerto Rican track star could ever truly break out over a full season at age thirty-two and with literally no major league success before 2009. Well, Torres has certainly proven the doubters wrong with a fantastic 2010 in which he's produced 5.7 WAR for the Giants, thanks to a .377 wOBA and an extraordinary defensive effort; UZR says he's saved 18.1 runs this year while DRS has him at 12. Torres never really knew how to hit upon being drafted in the fourth round out of community college in 1998, but once he tuned his mechanics he was able to utilize his bat speed and began to smack line drives.

1B Daric Barton
2009 WAR: 0.8
2010 WAR: 3.9

Daric Barton was young coming into the 2010 season at just twenty-four, but there were still many who were doubting if he'd ever put it all together. After the former top prospect burst onto the scene in 2007 with the A's at twenty-one and put up a .452 wOBA in eighty-four plate appearances, people were ready for more. However, the big lefty couldn't produce similarly the next few years, putting up a .302 wOBA in 140 games in 2008 and a more respectable .343 last year in fifty-four games. Thankfully for A's fans, Barton's increased patience has made up for his relative lack of power this year; he's hitting .284/.401/.419 thanks to a 15.8 BB% despite a rather poor .135 ISO. Still, his defense at first base has been solid (UZR says 6.1 runs saved) and his eye at the dish is outstanding. With his peak years ahead, Barton's power may develop more and he could become Jason Giambi Lite. Now if he'd only stop bunting...

OF Franklin Gutierrez
2009 WAR: 6.1
2010 WAR: 2.2

After Franklin Gutierrez's remarkable 2009, fans were excited to see what the former throw-in from a three-way trade would do this season. Last year, Guti was solid at the bat and outstanding in the field. His .337 wOBA (108 wRC+) was driven by a .425 SLG (not too bad for a center fielder) and a .333 BABIP. He was also insanely clutch last year and had a 3.72 WPA. However, it was his defense that gave him the big value. UZR liked him for 31 runs above replacement. Yup, make him a league-average fielder and his value drops over 50% to just 3 WAR. Still, UZR wasn't alone; DRS said he was even better, at 32 runs saved, and Total Zone liked him for 27 runs. It was truly an incredible year for Guti.

Sadly, the tide has turned in 2010. At twenty-seven, Gutierrez should be approaching his peak offensively, but his wOBA has dropped to a measly .304 this year as he's caught whatever offensive-thwarting bug has gone around the Seattle clubhouse. Despite increasing his walk rate a percentage point (7.3% to 8.3%), his .304 BABIP has produced a .251/.311/.367 slash line, nothing to write home about. Finally, the glove hasn't played like it did last year. UZR still thinks he's been good for 7.5 runs, while DRS is even more bullish with 16 runs, but it hasn't been enough to replicate, or even approach, his 2009 WAR.

OF Nyjer Morgan
2009 WAR: 4.9
2010 WAR: 0.3

I think we've heard this story before. Center fielder has a career offensive and defensive season which drives his value up crazy, but then regresses significantly the following year because of a much lower BABIP and worse defense. Nyjer Morgan (aka DJ Nij-Nnn-Nnn-Nnn-Nice) had a fantastic 2009 both at the plate and in the field. Morgan, who split time between Pittsburgh and Washington, hit .307/.369/.388, good for a .340 wOBA (108 wRC+). However, it wasn't entirely unexpected. Morgan had put up a .340 wOBA in 2007 and a .320 wOBA in 2008. Still, the consistent offense over a full season was surprising. What was more surprising was his defense, as Morgan saved 27.6 runs according to UZR (DRS said 15 while Total Zone said just 9).

In 2010, everything has fallen apart for Morgan. He has a .288 wOBA thanks to a .257/.317/.318 line, has a negative UZR, and is getting clotheslined by big first basemen. ZiPS still likes him for a .305 wOBA the rest of the way, but Morgan is not the solid everyday center fielder many thought he could turn out to be.

Nine players made their 2010 debut yesterday -- seven appearing in the big leagues for the first time -- on the first day of roster expansion. By WPA standards, four positively contributed to their team, and five negatively contributed in their debuts. Here is my take on the positive contributors; I will write up the negative contributors in the afternoon today.

Brandon Allen, 1B/LF, Age 24, Arizona Diamondbacks.

Debut: +.229 WPA. The only of today's eight players to have a previous big league career, Allen made his 2010 debut in left field. He had a bloop single to left in the third, and then a bloop fly-out to left in the fifth. In the seventh inning, Allen pulled a hanging slider to right field 419 feet for a grand slam. In the field, Allen made a nice catch against the fence in the fourth, one of four put-outs on the day.

2010 Minor League Season: .261/.405/.528 (.407 wOBA) in 469 PA at Triple-A.

Thoughts on Future: I have to say, more impressive than the grand slam yesterday was Allen's catch of a slicing Chase Headley fly ball. This makes it all the more likely his 2011 season will be in the Major Leagues, as he's going to offer the Diamondbacks solid enough play at first base or in left field. At the plate, he's more than ready. Allen posted a 17.7 BB% this year, which more than makes up for his problems with contact. You can expect both his ISO and BB% to come down next year, but both should still be above league average. Allen is going to have a nice, long big league career; the White Sox must be kicking themselves for trading away Paul Konerko's successor at first base.

Darren Ford, CF, Age 24, San Francisco Giants.

Debut: +.214 WPA. Pinch ran for Mike Fontenot at first base in the 8th. Reached second on Tim Lincecum sacrifice. Bolted for third base when an Ubaldo Jimenez pitch hit the dirt, drawing a late throw from Miguel Olivo that went to left field. Ford scored the winning run on the play.

2010 Minor League Season: .251/.315/.365 (.313 wOBA) in 516 PA at Double-A. 37-52 SB/ATT.

Thoughts on Future: With a fairly hot Rockies team three games back, and a great pitcher's duel brewing between Jimenez and Lincecum, Ford played the role of Dave Roberts in a huge moment. Despite the dissimilarities in their games, Roberts's late-starting big league career, including 5 seasons with more than 400 plate appearances, would be a decent-enough outcome for Ford. Ford is already an all-world defender in center field, certainly a good baserunner, but his offense lags behind. Ford cut his strikeout rate to a career low this year, but it was met with a career-low walk rate, which had previously been his lone strength as a hitter. Most likely, he's a fifth outfielder, but given his defensive abilities, his offense doesn't need to be quite as good as most prospects.

Danny Espinosa, SS/2B, Age 23, Washington Nationals.

Debut: +.004 WPA. Espinosa was credited for a double in his first big league plate appearance, but it was mostly because the hometown official scorer didn't want to give Donnie Murphy an error. To his credit, Espinosa turned a one-base error into a two-base error with good speed. Espinosa grounded out to second in the 8th, and didn't record a play in the field.

2010 Minor League Season: .268/.337/.464 over two levels. Hit .259/.332/.461 (.356 wOBA) in 434 PA at Double-A, hit .295/.349/.463 (.345 wOBA) in 108 PA at Triple-A. 25-36 SB/ATT.

Thoughts on Future: I really like Danny Espinosa, because he's the rare prospect that could stick at shortstop and post good patience and power numbers. But then again, it sure seems like the Nationals are going to stick him at second base, and his patience wasn't good (7.5 BB%) this season. Both of these alter his prospect rating, and definitely knock him down a notch. Espinosa is also a player that's going to have to win over an old-school manager, as it's hard to forecast him ever hitting above .275 with strikeout rates in the mid-twenties.

Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Age 22, Milwaukee Brewers.

Debut: +.001 WPA. One inning, three batters faced, 11 pitches thrown, 7 for strikes. Was 95-98 mph with 7 fastballs, and threw 4 curveballs at 78-79 mph. Allowed groundball single to Miguel Cairo, induced double play grounder from Paul Janish, and groundball out from Ryan Hanigan.

2010 Minor League Season: 2.23 ERA in 24 appearances spread between the Midwest (5 G), Florida State (8 G) and Southern (11 G) Leagues. Ratios between three levels: 5.0 H/9, 0.00 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 12.0 K/9.

Thoughts on Future: We know that his next suspension will be the end of his professional baseball career, so that is noteworthy. With that said, Jeffress was by all accounts a good citizen during his 2010 season, and he made real strides on the diamond. Once a pure arm strength guy, Jeffress flashed a really good curveball yesterday that drew hilariously weak contact from Janish and Hanigan. With that pitch reaching true plus status, and his over-the-top arm angle still producing big velocity, Jeffress profiles as a Major League closer. His blend of strikeouts and groundballs should lead to some real success in that role.

This afternoon: Yonder Alonso, Lucas Duda, Brian Bogusevic, Desmond Jennings, Freddie Freeman.

Jeff Suppan started his ninth game of the season for the St. Louis Cardinals yesterday. The 35-year-old starter, acquired after the Brewers released him and his albatross contract, pitched five innings against the Astros, allowing four earned runs on four walks, three hits, and one home run while striking out only one batter. With this start in the books, Suppan has now struck out 19 batters, walked 19 batters, and allowed eight home runs in his 46.1 innings pitched for St. Louis. Prior to tonight's start, Suppan had a 5.53 FIP and a 5.14 xFIP as a Cardinal, both numbers which will only climb after yesterday's poor start.

And yet, despite how utterly horribly Suppan has pitched, he comes out of that start against Houston with merely a 4.47 ERA. Suppan has stranded a ridiculous 82.8% of baserunners allowed, and for that reason he has managed to get away relatively unscathed despite no other mark suggesting anything even resembling major league talent. It's not even as if Suppan has been good at preventing hits, either- he has allowed 57 hits in 47.1 innings now and a BABIP of .323. Either it's a fantastically wily veteran wherewithal on the mound or Suppan has been incredibly lucky with runners on base, and it shouldn't be hard to guess which side of the issue on which I fall.

And yet, despite the fact that Suppan has allowed only slightly more runs than the average, Suppan has a 1-5 record as a Cardinal and the club is 3-6 in games started by him, with one win ranking as the Cardinals most fantastic comeback win of the season. The universe has corrected itself through the paltry run support the Cardinals have given Suppan. In his nine starts, the Cardinals have given him 3, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 3, and 2 runs in support, respectively, and Suppan simply isn't good enough or lucky enough to win with so little offense behind him.

Somehow, Suppan has managed to avoid giving up loads of runs, but the Cardinals haven't managed to take advantage of it and win. The fact that Jeff Suppan has already received nine starts is a big reason why the Cardinals are now eight games back. If he's not the worst starting pitcher in the National League, he's close, and it's simply poetic justice that his teammates aren't putting up runs behind his lucky performances to date. The Cardinals shouldn't expect an ERA below 5.00 as Suppan racks up the innings, and they certainly shouldn't expect to win with him on the mound down the stretch either.

As smarter fans everywhere will already know, yesterday marked the beginning of the season of Roster Expansion on the MLB calendar.

With that in mind, this edition of One Night Only seeks to prepare the reader for which recently promoted players (with little or no MLB service time) he (or she) might see in tonight's respective games.

Note, please, that none of what follows ought to be regarded as official prospect mavening. Undoubtedly, at some point, either Marc Hulet or Bryan Smith will address the relative worth of one or more of the players treated here. Rather, allow this to serve merely as a brief catalog of players you might see in action this evening.

For each game, I've included (a) the name, age, and position of the recent call-up, (b) said call-up's ranking both on Marc Hulet's top-10 and Baseball America's top-30 preseason organizational prospect lists, (c) the player's line at his most recent minor league stop, and (d) any notes relevant to better enjoying said player's promotion.

(wOBA+, or park-adjusted wOBA relative to league average, courtesy of StatCorner.)

New York Nationals at Atlanta | 7:10pm ET
Mets
Lucas Duda, 24, LF/1B
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 290 PA, .314/.389/.610 (.346 BABIP), .424 wOBA, 124 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has the best league- and park-adjusted numbers on this list. Distinguishes himself, as well, by specifically not being Jeff Francoeur.

Braves
J.C. Boscan, 30, C
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 248 PA, .250/.324/.368 (.305 BABIP), .314 wOBA, 94 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has been in the minors for longer than Jackie Moore's been alive.

Freddie Freeman, 20, 1B
Hulet / BA: 2 / 2
Line: 519 PA, .319/.378/.518 (.351 BABIP), .387 wOBA, 117 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Most highly rated player on this list. With that name he's got, could definitely start a smooth jazz band if baseball doesn't work out.

Philadelphia at Colorado | 7:10pm ET
Phillies
None.

Rockies
Christopher Nelson, 24, SS/2B
Hulet / BA: NR / 29
Line: 356 PA, .317/.379/.498 (.348 BABIP), .384 wOBA, 107 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Actually had like 6 PAs back in mid-June. Total Zone doesn't appear to like his defense. Turns out, was not lead singer of hair band Nelson.

Oakland at New York Americans | 1:05pm ET
Athletics
Justin James, 28, RHP
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 19.2 IP, 12.81 K/9, 4.12 BB/9, 1.88 FIP (Triple-A)
Notes: He appears to induce ground balls at a fairly steady pace, too. Could be interesting to watch.

Yankees
Greg Golson, 24, CF/RF
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 455 PA, .265/.316/.417 (.324 BABIP), .328 wOBA, 97 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Golson actually has 12 career major league PAs. Is 17-for-21 stealng this year.

Boston at Baltimore | 7:05pm ET
Red Sox
None.

Orioles
Brandon Snyder, 23, 1B
Hulet / BA: 6 / 6
Line: 376 PA, .257/.324/.407 (.338 BABIP), .326 wOBA, 103 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Was originally a catcher. Hit .343/.421/.597 (.396 BABIP) with a 128 wOBA+ last year at Double-A.

Detroit at Minnesota | 8:10pm ET
Tigers
Max St. Pierre, 30, C
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 147 PA, .300/.356/.469 (.318 BABIP), .356 wOBA, 108 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has a shockingly similar profile to Boscan (above). Is from Quebec.

Twins
None.

Cleveland at Seattle | 10:10pm ET
Indians
None.

Mariners
None.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

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Jason Kendall is out for the next eight-to-ten months as he’ll require shoulder surgery. Not just a snarky Royals fan’s latest joke, but a reality.

Playing Kendall virtually every day likely did not help his body. Catchers do not age well, and asking a 36-year-old to catch nearly 90% of the innings played is a bit much. But you know what? Kendall caught 91% two seasons ago, and was over 80% last season too. The high percentage of games caught by Kendall is not a defense of using him that much, not at all. My issue is the original contract itself calling for two years. I won’t rehash that argument either.

Instead, I’d like to pay tribute to Kendall’s career if this winds up being the last time we see him in the majors. For a string of years Kendall was one of the best hitting catchers around. Here are his run values (park-adjusted too) from 1997 through 2000:

17.3
33.5
22.8
27.4

From there, things go downhill a bit, although he managed a string of decent seasons with the Pirates and Athletics that lasted until the mid-2000s and included two near-five win seasons. Between that 97-00 period, Kendall was amongst baseball’s more underrated players, such is the price one has to pay when playing for a perennial cellar dweller.

Only recently (well, 2007) did Kendall become a bit of a laughing stock offensively. He has posted four of his five worst offensive seasons the last four years, which is not a sweet or charming end to a career, and neither is the injury route. It’s a shame that his career might end like this, but he’s had a long and ultimately fan-fulfilling career.

Yesterday I wrote about how Yovani Gallardo’s season had slipped through the cracks. Tonight is Brian McCann’s time for shine; apologies in advance to Braves’ fans if Brian McCann decides to pitch tonight and gives up eight runs.

McCann has the unfortunate coincidence of playing (and catching) during the same period as Joe Mauer. Nevertheless, McCann is a single home run shy of his third consecutive 20-plus home run season. His consistency goes beyond that streak, though, as his home run totals since becoming a permanent fixture in the starting lineup are as follows: 24, 18, 23, 21, and of course 19. Even better, McCann’s walk rates have been mostly static over that period: 8.3%, 6.3%, 9.9%, 8.9%, and now 13.4%.His ISO is consistent, too: .240, .183, .222, .205, and .203.

I do not know the standard deviation for the average player on a year-to-year basis in those statistics, but my perception is that McCann is probably more consistent than a decent number of individuals. My perception of how impressive this would be is enhanced by him catching, where nicks and bruises are a byproduct of such a tedious lifestyle choice.

Whether McCann really is in the top 10% (or whatever percentage one desires to place him within) for “consistency” or not is irrelevant. He just doesn’t have a huge blow-up season like Mauer, and I wonder if that hurts him when it comes to being recognized as the second best catcher in baseball. It’s the Albert Pujols’ syndrome. He’s so good annually that sometimes we take the performances for granted.

McCann’s season is a perfect example. He has 4.9 WAR right now, last season he had 4.2, and his previous career high is 5.7. He will not reach six wins, but he is almost certain to top five for the third time in his career. He somehow has a higher wOBA than players like Evan Longoria, David Ortiz, Ryan Braun, Jason Heyward, and so on ... and he's a catcher. That fact really cannot be ignored. Yet we’ve only had three posts on him since January and none talked up his performance. And, really, if he hasn’t been covered by this staff, then he’s definitely flying under some radars.

Everybody knows that Jose Bautista has put up ridiculous power numbers this year. Bautista's 43 home runs are eight more than second place Albert Pujols and his .355 ISO is 53 points above Miguel Cabrera's and only trails Josh Hamilton's batting average by six points. Those are impressive numbers and a large reason why Jose Bautista has a .426 wOBA this season.

It's important to realize, however, that Bautista has not been a one-dimensional hitter this year. The power has been the driving force behind his line, but Bautista also has a .385 OBP this season. That ability to reach base is largely based on a fantastic 14.9% walk rate, the best of his career and second in the league among qualified pitchers behind Daric Barton.

Although he's never seen this many free passes, the ability to walk is not something new for Bautista. Since 2006, Bautista has had an above average walk rate every season and has eclipsed 11% three times including 2010. Bautista's walk rates since 2006 have been 116%, 131%, 108%, 156%, and 175% of the league average, and that's why Bautista was basically a league average hitter over his time in Pittsburgh.

The discussion with Bautista always seems to turn to his performance next year, and for good reason. For as impressive as Bautista's power is, we simply don't learn much about a player's true power talent from only 500 or 600 plate appearances. That's why ZiPS projects a drop in ISO from .355 to .230.

Despite this projected drop in power to human levels, Bautista is still seen as a well above average hitter by ZiPS and that's because Bautista has had and continues to have above average plate discipline. ZiPS projects a 13.7% walk rate, and given Bautista's track record, it's hard to imagine much of a deviation from that number.

The question of Bautista's performance next year is a worthwhile one, and for a variety of reasons it's no sure thing that his power remains at such a high level. However, even with a decline, Bautista should be able to remain an above average hitter, and that's due to his fantastic patience at the plate and ability to reach base via the walk. That should continue to make him a viable hitter, and any extra power only serves to increase his offensive value.

The results of our second contract crowdsourcing are in, and while those who commented on the original post seemed willing to pony up for Dunn, they were a vocal minority. If Dunn is expecting a big paycheck this winter, the crowd think he's in for a disappointment.

Average years: 3.18 years
Average salary: $12.40 million

Median years: 3 years
Median salary: $12 million

Standard deviation, years: 0.81 years
Standard deviation, salary: $2.73 million

As you can see, there was less agreement with Dunn than with Crawford, as people clearly have very different perceptions of his value. The standard deviation in salary is almost as high as it was with Crawford even though the average salary is 25 percent lower. Almost as many people voted that he'd have to settle for $7 million per season as the ones who thought he'd hit the jackpot and get $20 million per year. A whopping 52 people gave him an annual average salary of $20-plus million. Seriously.

I think those folks, and perhaps Dunn and his agent, are in for another rude awakening this winter. I had him at 3/33 before the community voted, putting him very close to that mark. While he's a productive player, he faces some challenges, as follows.

1. His refusal to DH will scare off most AL clubs, limiting the number of teams that will seriously pursue him.
2. There are a glut of free agent 1B/DH types on the market this winter.
3. He's going to be a Type A free agent, and the Nationals are almost certainly going to offer arbitration.

Given those three factors, you're looking at just a few clubs that will be in the bidding. Rebuilders will not want to lose a good draft pick in a loaded class. Most contenders already have a good first baseman, or may be looking to leverage all the available options against each other to come up with a cheaper option. It's just going to be very difficult for Dunn to find multiple teams that want to pay him a lot of money, and one heavily interested team won't be enough, as he learned two years ago.

I'll stick with my original thought of 3 years and $33 million, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if his eventual deal was less than that, or even if he ended up accepting the Nationals arbitration offer.

If FanGraphs has a football-oriented kindred spirit around this great and wild series of tubes called the internet, it's almost definitely Brian Burke's Advanced NFL Stats. Just as we strive to do here, Burke makes it his bidness to ask the smartest questions he can think of and (generally) uses quantitative analysis to answer them. Also, as we do here, Burke carries a number of stats that you're not gonna find elsewhere.

Finally, as with FanGraphs, green is integral to his site's color palette. So, yeah.

So it was that, when FanGraphs' own Zach Sanders assembled a cast of sabermetric types via a simple Twitter message (pictured below) I wrote to Mr. Burke and asked what might be a way to construct a league so's to remove -- as much as is possible -- the effects of team context and randomness (i.e. practices common in the quantitative analysis of baseball).



Because he's a kind person and sympathetic those less fortunate than him, Burke responded quickly. You can read the entirety of his reply (and more!) over at his site, but if you're the sort to look for the bottom line, here's a fair summary: turnovers, special teams, and touchdowns are the most random things in the NFL; stick with yardage as much as possible.

In any case, I assume at least some of our readers participate in fantasy football, and that some of those people have as yet to participate in the last of their NFL fantasy drafts.

That being the case, I've reproduced below the scoring system we'll be using in what Sanders has subbed the This Ain't Baseball League. Essentially, it's a hybrid of the more traditional fantasy scoring with which you're already likely familiar and then the yard-heavy approach endorsed by Burke.

The positions we're using are as follows: QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R/T, W/R/T, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN.

The draft was last Thursday, and I believe you'll be able to view the results of said draft -- plus other league information -- by clicking here. [Update: Nevermind. Apparently, that doesn't work. Yeesh.]

Now, for the scoring (including the Yahoo default settings for the sake of comparison):



Those are the offensive ones. Here are the defensive: