Help Support FanGraphs



Nate Karns
Birthdate: 11/25/1987 (29 y, 3 m, 27 d)     Bats/Throws: R/R     Height/Weight: 6-3/225     Position: P
Drafted: 2009 June Amateur Draft - Round: 12, Pick: 1, Overall: 352, Team: Washington Nationals
Contract: $0.5M / 1 Years (2016)
Reported: 1/1/2015  Risk: 2  ETA: 2015  Team Rank: NA  Positional Rank: NA  Overall Rank: NA
FastballCurveballChangeupCommandFuture Value
55 / 6050 / 5545 / 50+40 / 4540
RotoWire News: Karns tossed six scoreless innings in Wednesday's 6-2 win over the Padres in Cactus League play, conceding four hits and no walks while striking out nine. (3/23/2017)
Profiles:  2014  2015  2016  2017  (Click Year to Expand / Close)
Profile: Coming off a season in which he pitched nearly 150 innings with a mid-threes ERA and high-but-manageable walk totals, Karns finished 2016 with an ERA over five and the sixth-highest walk rate in the majors. He also bounced between the rotation and the pen, ultimately making just 15 starts and pitching fewer than 100 innings. But it wasn't all bad. He struck out over a batter per inning (both as a starter and as a reliever) and his ERA indicators came in about a run less than his ERA. A .327 batting average on balls in play for a fly ball pitcher and a 69% strand rate will do that to you. Now with Kansas City, Karns will likely pitch in the rotation. Royals starters ranked 27th in wins above replacement in 2016, and the staff gets pretty thin pretty quickly after Danny Duffy. And at least as far as homers go, which is important for a fly ball-heavy pitcher like Karns, Kauffman stadium plays better than Safeco. Additionally, he now also benefits from playing in front of one of the strongest defensive outfields in baseball. If Karns moves to the pen, his strikeout abilities make him a candidate for the next great relief ace. Either way, Karns makes an interesting-if-not-volatile asset in 2016. (Rylan Edwards)

The Quick Opinion: Karns has the potential to produce hefty strikeout totals and decent rate stats if he can manage his walks. While a deteriorating fastball in terms of movement, which impacts the efficacy of his change, his curve is still excellent. An improvement to his heater would make me very bullish on him for 2017. Absent that, we're likely in for more of the same.

If you would like to make a projection for this player, please Log In or Register.



SeasonTeamWLSVGGSIPK/9BB/9HR/9BABIPLOB%GB%HR/FBERAFIPxFIPWAR
2011Nationals (R)0005518.212.542.890.00.065100.0 %  0.001.92  
2011Nationals (A-)3208836.28.106.630.25.27777.7 %  3.444.45  
2012Nationals (A)30211544.112.384.260.20.23779.0 %  2.032.75  
2012Nationals (A+)840131371.210.933.270.13.28871.4 %  2.262.39  
2013Nationals (AA)10602323132.210.523.260.95.28976.2 %  3.263.60  
2013Nationals0103312.08.254.503.75.31676.5 %35.7 %35.7 %7.508.384.56-0.4
2014Rays (AAA)9902727145.19.473.840.99.32363.9 %  5.084.03  
2014Rays1102212.09.753.002.25.14879.6 %43.3 %23.1 %4.505.723.80-0.1
2015Rays7502726147.08.883.431.16.28578.7 %41.9 %12.8 %3.674.093.901.5
2016Mariners621221594.19.644.291.05.32769.0 %40.3 %11.5 %5.154.054.231.2
2017Depth Charts8802626148.08.533.691.18.30872.1 %  4.324.30 1.6
2017Steamer8902626145.08.303.691.14.29371.3 %42.1 % 4.344.294.461.6
2017ZiPS6612421119.38.753.701.21.31272.9 %  4.304.30 1.3
Total- - -14915446265.19.163.771.29.29774.7 %41.0 %14.0 %4.414.344.042.2

SeasonTeamWLERAGGSCGShOSVHLDBSIPTBFHRERHRBBIBBHBPWPBKSO
2011Nationals (R)000.0055000  18.26520006023026
2011Nationals (A-)323.4488000  36.2159271414127047033
2012Nationals (A)302.03115102  44.1179231110121035061
2012Nationals (A+)842.261313100  71.2278472318126044087
2013Nationals (AA)1063.262323300  132.25531095448144817131155
2013Nationals017.50330000012.06117111056010011
2014Rays (AAA)995.082727000  145.1624142898216620370153
2014Rays114.50220000012.04976634020013
2015Rays753.67272600000147.06211326260195615150145
2016Mariners625.1522150010094.141795555411451351101
2017Depth Charts884.322626  00 148.0 14376711961 6  140
2017Steamer894.3426260000 145.062813975701860 5  134
2017ZiPS664.302421  1  119.3 116615716491580116
Total- - -1494.41544600100265.1114825113413038111211201270

SeasonTeamK/9BB/9K/BBHR/9K%BB%K-BB%AVGWHIPBABIPLOB%ERA-FIP-FIP
2011Nationals (R)12.542.894.330.0040.0 %9.2 %30.8 %.0350.43.065100.0 %  1.92
2011Nationals (A-)8.106.631.220.2520.8 %17.0 %3.8 %.2111.47.27777.7 %  4.45
2012Nationals (A)12.384.262.900.2034.1 %11.7 %22.3 %.1480.99.23779.0 %  2.75
2012Nationals (A+)10.933.273.350.1331.3 %9.4 %21.9 %.1901.02.28871.4 %  2.39
2013Nationals (AA)10.523.263.230.9528.0 %8.7 %19.3 %.2191.18.28976.2 %  3.60
2013Nationals8.254.501.833.7518.0 %9.8 %8.2 %.3151.92.31676.5 %2002268.38
2013Average7.573.022.510.9619.9 %7.9 %11.9 %.2501.30.29473.5 %  4.02
2014Rays (AAA)9.473.842.470.9924.5 %9.9 %14.6 %.2541.40.32363.9 %  4.03
2014Rays9.753.003.252.2526.5 %8.2 %18.4 %.1630.92.14879.6 %1211545.72
2014Average7.732.892.670.8620.4 %7.6 %12.7 %.2471.28.29573.0 %  3.81
2015Rays8.883.432.591.1623.4 %9.0 %14.3 %.2361.28.28578.7 %941044.09
2015Average7.762.922.661.0220.4 %7.7 %12.7 %.2511.29.29672.9 %  4.03
2016Mariners9.644.292.241.0524.2 %10.8 %13.4 %.2571.48.32769.0 %127974.05
2016Average8.103.142.581.1721.1 %8.2 %12.9 %.2521.32.29872.9 %  4.24
2017Depth Charts8.533.692.311.18   .2551.38.30872.1 %  4.30
2017Steamer8.303.692.251.1421.3 %9.5 %11.8 %.2471.37.29371.3 %  4.29
2017ZiPS8.753.702.371.21   .2561.38.31272.9 %  4.30
Total- - -9.163.772.431.2923.5 %9.7 %13.9 %.2451.36.29774.7 %1121094.34

SeasonTeamGB/FBLD%GB%FB%IFFB%HR/FBIFH%BUH%Pull%Cent%Oppo%Soft%Med%Hard%SIERAxFIP-xFIP
2013Nationals1.0731.0 %35.7 %33.3 %14.3 %35.7 %6.7 %0.0 %46.5 %37.2 %16.3 %9.3 %58.1 %32.6 %4.461214.56
2014Rays1.0013.3 %43.3 %43.3 %15.4 %23.1 %7.7 %0.0 %33.3 %36.7 %30.0 %30.0 %43.3 %26.7 %3.241003.80
2015Rays1.1521.6 %41.9 %36.5 %9.4 %12.8 %8.2 %42.9 %38.6 %35.2 %26.3 %19.5 %46.0 %34.5 %3.90973.90
2016Mariners1.1023.2 %40.3 %36.5 %8.3 %11.5 %5.7 %80.0 %36.9 %35.8 %27.2 %18.7 %50.7 %30.6 %4.23994.23
Total- - -1.1222.3 %41.0 %36.6 %9.6 %14.0 %7.2 %53.8 %38.2 %35.6 %26.2 %19.0 %48.3 %32.7 %4.02994.04

SeasonTeamGBFBLDIFFBIFHBUBUHRSBallsStrikesPitches
2013Nationals15141321101196151247
2014Rays131342100173132205
2015Rays171149881414736489615452441
2016Mariners106966186546364110381679
Total- - -3052721662622137139170628664572

SeasonTeamWPA-WPA+WPARE24REWpLIinLIgmLIexLIPullsWPA/LIClutchSDMD
2013Nationals-0.62-1.600.97-5.45-0.601.011.010.871.253-0.920.3100
2014Rays0.19-0.600.790.12-0.010.810.810.871.3320.110.1300
2015Rays0.78-10.4811.267.730.761.021.020.911.46270.040.7300
2016Mariners-0.08-6.996.91-8.32-0.830.930.930.701.4020-0.160.0800
Total- - -0.27-19.6619.94-5.92-0.690.980.980.821.4252-0.941.2200

SeasonTeamFB%SL%CT%CB%CH%SF%KN%XX%
2013Nationals67.2% (93.4)  21.9% (84.3)10.9% (85.8)   
2014Rays65.9% (93.2)  28.8% (83.1)5.4% (85.5)   
2015Rays58.1% (91.6)  29.4% (80.7)12.5% (85.2)  0.2%
2016Mariners52.7% (93.0)  36.4% (81.4)10.9% (86.3)  0.2%
Total- - -57.0% (92.3)  31.5% (81.3)11.5% (85.6)  0.2%

SeasonTeamFA%FT%FC%FS%FO%SI%SL%CU%KC%EP%CH%SC%KN%UN%
2013Nationals67.1 %       22.4 % 10.6 %   
2014Rays65.9 %       28.8 % 5.4 %   
2015Rays58.4 %       29.3 % 12.3 %   
2016Mariners53.4 %       36.4 % 10.2 %   
Total- - -57.4 %       31.6 % 11.1 %   

SeasonTeamvFAvFTvFCvFSvFOvSIvSLvCUvKCvEPvCHvSCvKN
2013Nationals93.4       84.3 85.7  
2014Rays93.1       83.1 85.4  
2015Rays91.6       80.7 85.0  
2016Mariners92.9       81.4 86.2  
Total- - -92.2       81.2 85.5  

SeasonTeamwFBwSLwCTwCBwCHwSFwKNwFB/CwSL/CwCT/CwCB/CwCH/CwSF/CwKN/C
2013Nationals-6.9  -0.40.3  -4.15  -0.751.08  
2014Rays0.1  -0.10.1  0.08  -0.190.46  
2015Rays-8.1  10.4-0.9  -0.57  1.45-0.30  
2016Mariners-3.8  1.4-1.8  -0.43  0.23-0.97  
Total- - --18.7  11.3-2.3  -0.72  0.79-0.45  

SeasonTeamwFAwFTwFCwFSwFOwSIwSLwCUwKCwEPwCHwSCwKN
2013Nationals-6.7       -0.2 0.1  
2014Rays0.3       -0.1 0.0  
2015Rays-7.6       9.2 -0.2  
2016Mariners-2.6       1.5 -2.3  
Total- - --16.6       10.5 -2.4  

SeasonTeamwFA/CwFT/CwFC/CwFS/CwFO/CwSI/CwSL/CwCU/CwKC/CwEP/CwCH/CwSC/CwKN/C
2013Nationals-4.08       -0.31 0.37  
2014Rays0.19       -0.09 0.45  
2015Rays-0.54       1.30 -0.08  
2016Mariners-0.29       0.25 -1.36  
Total- - --0.64       0.73 -0.48  

SeasonTeamO-Swing%Z-Swing%Swing%O-Contact%Z-Contact%Contact%Zone%F-Strike%SwStr%
2013Nationals25.6 %62.7 %44.5 %77.4 %78.5 %78.2 %51.0 %63.9 %9.7 %
2013Average30.4 %65.5 %45.9 %66.5 %87.0 %79.4 %44.2 %60.2 %9.4 %
2014Rays29.7 %62.8 %44.9 %57.6 %89.8 %78.3 %45.9 %49.0 %9.8 %
2014Average30.7 %65.7 %46.2 %65.7 %87.3 %79.3 %44.3 %60.6 %9.5 %
2015Rays28.8 %64.4 %44.5 %65.8 %87.0 %79.3 %44.1 %57.7 %9.2 %
2015Average30.6 %66.9 %46.9 %64.9 %86.7 %78.8 %44.7 %60.9 %9.9 %
2016Mariners28.2 %62.8 %43.6 %55.7 %85.7 %74.9 %44.5 %57.6 %10.9 %
2016Average30.3 %66.7 %46.5 %63.9 %86.3 %78.2 %44.6 %60.3 %10.1 %
Total- - -28.5 %63.7 %44.2 %62.3 %86.1 %77.6 %44.7 %57.6 %9.9 %

SeasonTeamO-Swing%Z-Swing%Swing%O-Contact%Z-Contact%Contact%Zone%Pace
2013Nationals24.6 %66.4 %44.3 %68.8 %81.8 %78.0 %47.2 %22.0
2013Average29.7 %62.7 %45.9 %63.2 %87.3 %79.4 %49.2 %22.6
2014Rays30.8 %60.2 %44.9 %69.7 %83.1 %78.3 %47.8 %23.9
2014Average30.1 %63.1 %46.2 %62.9 %87.5 %79.3 %48.8 %23.0
2015Rays28.6 %62.0 %44.4 %64.9 %86.9 %79.4 %47.4 %22.1
2015Average30.9 %64.4 %46.9 %62.9 %87.1 %78.8 %47.8 %22.1
2016Mariners29.6 %58.3 %43.6 %55.9 %85.3 %75.1 %48.8 %23.6
2016Average30.6 %63.9 %46.5 %62.1 %86.5 %78.1 %47.8 %22.7
Total- - -28.8 %60.7 %44.1 %62.0 %85.8 %77.7 %47.9 %22.7

SeasonTeamPosGGSInnPOAEFETEDPDPSDPTDPFScpSBCSPBWPFPTZ
2013NationalsP3312.0300000000 2   1.000 
2014RaysP2212.0000000000 1   .000 
2015RaysP2726147.05131100000 17   .947 
2016MarinersP221594.1852110000 12   .867 
Total- - -P5446265.116183210000 32   .919 

SeasonTeamPosInnrSBrGDPrARMrGFPrPMDRSBIZPlaysRZROOZCPPRPPTZLFSRARMDPRRngRErrRUZRUZR/150
2013NationalsP12.00  000              
2014RaysP12.00  000              
2015RaysP147.0-2  00-2              
2016MarinersP94.1-1  00-3              
Total- - -P265.1-3  00-5              

SeasonTeamPosInnImpossible (0%)Remote (1-10%)Unlikely (10-40%)Even (40-60%)Likely (60-90%)Routine (90-100%)
2015RaysP147.00.0%      (1)0.0%      (2)0.0%      (0)33.3%     (3)100.0%      (2)90.0%    (10)
2016MarinersP94.10.0%      (0)0.0%      (1)0.0%      (0)100.0%     (1)0.0%      (2)80.0%      (5)
Total- - -P265.10.0%      (1)0.0%      (3)0.0%      (0)50.0%     (4)50.0%      (4)86.7%    (15)

SeasonTeamRA9-WARBIP-WinsLOB-WinsFDP-WinsRARWARDollarsSalary
2013Nationals-0.4-0.10.10.0-4.5-0.4($3.1) 
2014Rays0.10.3-0.10.2-1.1-0.1($0.8) 
2015Rays2.60.30.81.114.31.5$11.9 
2016Mariners0.3-0.6-0.3-0.911.71.2$9.7 
Total- - -2.6-0.10.50.520.42.2$17.7 

  • $0.5m / 1 Years (2016) (Edit)
    • signed by Seattle Mariners on 3/4/2016 (League Minimum)
    • 2016: $0.5M
    • Other Notes: Pre arbitration
    • Agent / Agency: Kevin Hubbard
    • Source: spotrac.com
    • Submitted by Sam Bauman
  • $0.5m / 1 Years (2015) (Edit)
    • signed by Tampa Bay Rays on 3/3/2015 (League Minimum)
    • 2015: $0.5M
    • Other Notes: Pre arbitration
    • Source: spotrac.com
    • Submitted by Sam Bauman
Add New Contract
  • 2009 June Amateur Draft - Round: 12, Pick: 1, Overall: 352
    • Team: Washington Nationals
    • School: Texas Tech U
  • 2006 June Amateur Draft - Round: 10, Pick: 23, Overall: 309
    • Team: Houston Astros
    • School: James Martin Senior HS