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Daily Notes: A Brief Review of Burch Smith's Second Start
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The 1998 Astros Were Pretty Good At Hitting
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Roto Riteup: May 19. 2013
Bullpen Report: May 18, 2013
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Audio: Bob Uecker Would Like One or Six Beers
A GIF and a Tune: Ian Kinsler and Modest Mussorgsky
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The Ten Lowest BABIPs Since 1945
FanGraphs+
A Special Group of Young Talent
Are the Angels Actually Improved?
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Marcel
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AL Games
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Final
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F - 11th
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AL East
Yankees
27
16
----
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26
17
1.0
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23
19
3.5
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22
20
4.5
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17
26
10.0
AL Central
Indians
24
17
----
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23
18
1.0
Royals
20
19
3.0
White Sox
19
22
5.0
Twins
18
21
5.0
AL West
Rangers
28
15
----
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22
22
6.5
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20
23
8.0
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16
27
12.0
Astros
12
31
16.0
NL East
Braves
24
18
----
Nationals
23
20
1.5
Phillies
20
23
4.5
Mets
16
24
7.0
Marlins
11
32
13.5
NL Central
Cardinals
27
15
----
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26
17
1.5
Pirates
25
18
2.5
Cubs
18
24
9.0
Brewers
17
24
9.5
NL West
D-backs
25
18
----
Giants
24
19
1.0
Rockies
23
20
2.0
Padres
19
23
5.5
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17
24
7.0
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Alex Burnett
Birthdate:
7/26/1987
Bats/Throws:
R/R
Height/Weight:
6-0/221
Position:
P
Contract:
Add New Contract
5/18/2013:
Burnett has been optioned to Triple-A Norfolk, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports.
3/8/2013
-
Minnesota Twins Bullpen: Depth Chart Discussions
by
Colin Zarzycki (RotoGraphs)
3
Graphs
All Graphs
Season Stats
Splits
Game Log
Play Log
Compare
PITCHf/x
Projections
Batting
Pitching
Standard
Advanced
Batted Ball
Win Probability
Pitch Type
Plate Discipline
Fielding
Value
Dashboard
Customize
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
W
L
SV
G
GS
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BABIP
LOB%
GB%
HR/FB
ERA
FIP
xFIP
WAR
2006
Twins (R)
4
3
0
13
13
71.1
8.96
1.64
0.76
.303
57.4 %
4.04
3.10
2007
Twins (A)
9
8
0
27
27
155.0
6.79
2.21
0.52
.281
73.0 %
3.02
3.37
2008
Twins (A+)
8
6
0
28
25
143.2
5.26
2.26
0.75
.295
68.5 %
3.76
3.97
2009
Twins (A+)
2
1
4
18
0
22.2
10.32
2.78
0.00
.246
72.7 %
1.99
1.96
2009
Twins (AA)
1
2
9
40
0
55.1
8.46
3.09
0.33
.241
79.7 %
1.79
2.98
2010
Twins (AAA)
0
2
2
14
0
19.2
8.24
3.66
0.46
.391
67.5 %
5.49
3.25
2010
Twins
2
2
0
41
0
47.2
6.99
4.34
1.13
.322
71.4 %
46.9 %
12.0 %
5.29
4.74
4.38
-0.2
2011
Twins (AAA)
0
0
1
4
0
3.2
7.36
2.45
2.45
.364
65.2 %
7.36
5.93
2011
Twins
2
5
0
66
0
50.2
5.86
3.73
0.71
.289
64.0 %
46.3 %
6.9 %
5.51
4.47
4.88
-0.1
2012
Twins
4
4
0
67
0
71.2
4.52
3.27
0.50
.279
71.0 %
52.1 %
5.6 %
3.52
4.03
4.76
0.3
2013
Steamer
2
2
0
49
0
45.0
6.19
3.69
0.89
.305
71.3 %
4.25
4.38
0.0
2013
Bill James
3
4
0
66
0
69.0
6.13
3.52
0.65
.309
4.17
4.00
2013
Oliver
4
4
65.0
6.06
3.58
0.69
.290
70.2 %
4.00
4.06
2013
ZiPS
4
4
67
0
67.0
5.37
3.49
0.81
.310
69.5 %
4.57
4.45
-0.1
2013
Blue Jays (AAA)
0
0
0
2
0
2.1
0.00
3.86
0.00
.125
100.0 %
0.00
4.49
2013
Orioles (AAA)
1
0
0
7
0
9.2
7.45
0.93
0.00
.323
83.3 %
1.86
2.17
2013
Orioles
0
0
0
2
0
1.1
13.50
13.50
0.00
.667
50.0 %
16.7 %
0.0 %
20.25
4.53
7.78
0.0
2013
ZiPS (R)
2
3
43
0
43.0
5.45
3.56
0.93
.310
68.2 %
4.75
4.57
-0.1
2013
ZiPS (U)
2
3
45
0
44.0
5.69
3.86
0.90
.325
66.1 %
5.22
4.56
-0.1
2013
Steamer (R)
2
2
0
49
0
34.0
5.92
3.60
0.91
.298
70.9 %
4.34
4.38
0.0
2013
Steamer (U)
2
2
0
51
0
35.0
6.21
3.98
0.88
.318
68.4 %
4.95
4.39
0.0
Total
- - -
8
11
0
176
0
171.1
5.67
3.78
0.74
.297
68.5 %
48.6 %
7.7 %
4.73
4.36
4.71
0.0
News
3/16
-
Five questions: Minnesota Twins
by
Troy Patterson
5/19
-
Pitching to the corners, part one
by
Lucas Apostoleris
5/18
-
Orioles Unload Plethora of Roster Moves Before Saturday's Ga»
by
Camden Chat
5/14
-
Report: Jair Jurrjens to Start Saturday's Game for the Oriol»
by
Camden Chat
5/13
-
Wei-Yin Chen Headed to DL, Mike Belfiore Optioned, Because W»
by
Camden Chat
4/24
-
AL East Notes: Orioles, Burnett, Arrieta, Ichiro
by
Steve Adams
4/12
-
Orioles Claim Alex Burnett
by
Steve Adams
4/10
-
Blue Jays Designate Alex Burnett For Assignment
by
Steve Adams
Standard
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
W
L
ERA
G
GS
CG
ShO
SV
HLD
BS
IP
TBF
H
R
ER
HR
BB
IBB
HBP
WP
BK
SO
2006
Twins (R)
4
3
4.04
13
13
1
1
0
71.1
294
66
41
32
6
13
0
6
1
1
71
2007
Twins (A)
9
8
3.02
27
27
1
0
0
155.0
640
140
60
52
9
38
1
10
6
1
117
2008
Twins (A+)
8
6
3.76
28
25
0
0
0
143.2
608
151
72
60
12
36
0
5
7
0
84
2009
Twins (A+)
2
1
1.99
18
0
0
0
4
22.2
91
14
6
5
0
7
0
1
0
0
26
2009
Twins (AA)
1
2
1.79
40
0
0
0
9
55.1
217
36
14
11
2
19
4
3
1
0
52
2010
Twins (AAA)
0
2
5.49
14
0
0
0
2
19.2
91
26
12
12
1
8
2
0
2
0
18
2010
Twins
2
2
5.29
41
0
0
0
0
2
0
47.2
211
52
28
28
6
23
3
2
2
2
37
2011
Twins (AAA)
0
0
7.36
4
0
0
0
1
3.2
16
5
3
3
1
1
0
0
0
0
3
2011
Twins
2
5
5.51
66
0
0
0
0
10
2
50.2
225
50
32
31
4
21
1
8
2
0
33
2012
Twins
4
4
3.52
67
0
0
0
0
10
1
71.2
309
71
33
28
4
26
5
3
6
0
36
2013
Steamer
2
2
4.25
49
0
0
45.0
200
47
23
21
4
19
2
31
2013
Bill James
3
4
4.17
66
0
0
69.0
71
5
27
5
47
2013
Oliver
4
4
4.00
27
65.0
286
65
32
29
5
26
4
4
44
2013
ZiPS
4
4
4.57
67
0
67.0
73
36
34
6
26
4
5
4
0
40
2013
Blue Jays (AAA)
0
0
0.00
2
0
0
0
0
2.1
9
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
2013
Orioles (AAA)
1
0
1.86
7
0
0
0
0
9.2
41
10
2
2
0
1
0
1
0
0
8
2013
Orioles
0
0
20.25
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
1.1
10
4
3
3
0
2
0
0
0
0
2
2013
ZiPS (R)
2
3
4.75
43
0
43.0
47
24
22
4
17
3
26
2013
ZiPS (U)
2
3
5.22
45
0
44.0
51
28
25
4
19
3
28
2013
Steamer (R)
2
2
4.34
49
0
0
34.0
148
35
18
16
3
13
2
22
2013
Steamer (U)
2
2
4.95
51
0
0
35.0
158
39
21
19
3
15
2
24
Total
- - -
8
11
4.73
176
0
0
0
0
22
3
171.1
755
177
96
90
14
72
9
13
10
2
108
Advanced
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
|
Averages
Season
Team
K/9
BB/9
K/BB
HR/9
K%
BB%
AVG
WHIP
BABIP
LOB%
ERA-
FIP-
FIP
2006
Twins (R)
8.96
1.64
5.46
0.76
24.2 %
4.4 %
.240
1.11
.303
57.4 %
3.10
2007
Twins (A)
6.79
2.21
3.08
0.52
18.3 %
5.9 %
.237
1.15
.281
73.0 %
3.37
2008
Twins (A+)
5.26
2.26
2.33
0.75
13.8 %
5.9 %
.266
1.30
.295
68.5 %
3.97
2009
Twins (A+)
10.32
2.78
3.71
0.00
28.6 %
7.7 %
.169
0.93
.246
72.7 %
1.96
2009
Twins (AA)
8.46
3.09
2.74
0.33
24.0 %
8.8 %
.185
0.99
.241
79.7 %
2.98
2010
Twins (AAA)
8.24
3.66
2.25
0.46
19.8 %
8.8 %
.313
1.73
.391
67.5 %
3.25
2010
Twins
6.99
4.34
1.61
1.13
17.5 %
10.9 %
.280
1.57
.322
71.4 %
128
114
4.74
2010
Average
7.13
3.28
2.17
0.96
18.5 %
8.5 %
.253
1.35
.293
72.2 %
4.20
2011
Twins (AAA)
7.36
2.45
3.00
2.45
18.8 %
6.3 %
.333
1.64
.364
65.2 %
5.93
2011
Twins
5.86
3.73
1.57
0.71
14.7 %
9.3 %
.255
1.40
.289
64.0 %
136
111
4.47
2011
Average
7.13
3.11
2.30
0.94
18.6 %
8.1 %
.251
1.32
.291
72.5 %
4.12
2012
Twins
4.52
3.27
1.38
0.50
11.7 %
8.4 %
.254
1.35
.279
71.0 %
87
98
4.03
2012
Average
7.56
3.05
2.48
1.02
19.8 %
8.0 %
.250
1.31
.293
72.5 %
4.12
2013
Steamer
6.19
3.69
1.68
0.89
.268
1.44
.305
71.3 %
4.38
2013
Bill James
6.13
3.52
1.74
0.65
.267
1.42
.309
4.00
2013
Oliver
6.06
3.58
1.69
0.69
15.4 %
9.1 %
.254
1.39
.290
70.2 %
4.06
2013
ZiPS
5.37
3.49
1.54
0.81
.279
1.48
.310
69.5 %
4.45
2013
Blue Jays (AAA)
0.00
3.86
0.00
0.00
0.0 %
11.1 %
.125
0.86
.125
100.0 %
4.49
2013
Orioles (AAA)
7.45
0.93
8.00
0.00
19.5 %
2.4 %
.256
1.14
.323
83.3 %
2.17
2013
Orioles
13.50
13.50
1.00
0.00
20.0 %
20.0 %
.500
4.50
.667
50.0 %
475
108
4.53
2013
Average
7.63
3.12
2.45
1.04
20.0 %
8.2 %
.248
1.31
.291
73.0 %
4.16
2013
ZiPS (R)
5.45
3.56
1.53
0.93
.280
1.49
.310
68.2 %
4.57
2013
ZiPS (U)
5.69
3.86
1.47
0.90
.291
1.58
.325
66.1 %
4.56
2013
Steamer (R)
5.92
3.60
1.64
0.91
.272
1.45
.298
70.9 %
4.38
2013
Steamer (U)
6.21
3.98
1.56
0.88
.285
1.57
.318
68.4 %
4.39
Total
- - -
5.67
3.78
1.50
0.74
14.3 %
9.5 %
.264
1.45
.297
68.5 %
115
106
4.36
Batted Ball
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
GB/FB
LD%
GB%
FB%
IFFB%
HR/FB
IFH%
BUH%
tERA
SIERA
xFIP-
xFIP
2010
Twins
1.36
18.6 %
46.9 %
34.5 %
8.0 %
12.0 %
5.9 %
0.0 %
4.91
4.15
105
4.38
2011
Twins
1.28
17.5 %
46.3 %
36.3 %
8.6 %
6.9 %
6.8 %
0.0 %
4.55
4.26
120
4.88
2012
Twins
1.76
18.3 %
52.1 %
29.6 %
14.1 %
5.6 %
12.8 %
0.0 %
4.18
4.46
115
4.76
2013
Orioles
0.33
33.3 %
16.7 %
50.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
5.93
5.77
190
7.78
Total
- - -
1.47
18.3 %
48.6 %
33.0 %
10.4 %
7.7 %
9.3 %
0.0 %
4.51
4.34
114
4.71
More Batted Ball
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
GB
FB
LD
IFFB
IFH
BU
BUH
RS
Balls
Strikes
Pitches
2010
Twins
68
50
27
4
4
4
0
17
331
509
840
2011
Twins
74
58
28
5
5
3
0
26
313
544
857
2012
Twins
125
71
44
10
16
4
0
43
403
738
1141
2013
Orioles
1
3
2
0
0
0
0
1
18
20
38
Total
- - -
268
182
101
19
25
11
0
87
1065
1811
2876
Win Probability
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
WPA
-WPA
+WPA
RE24
REW
pLI
inLI
gmLI
exLI
Pulls
WPA/LI
Clutch
SD
MD
2010
Twins
0.06
-2.13
2.19
-2.13
-0.18
0.65
0.67
0.68
0.85
30
-0.05
0.14
4
7
2011
Twins
-1.21
-4.28
3.07
-5.72
-0.57
0.94
0.82
1.15
1.06
54
-0.17
-1.12
10
14
2012
Twins
0.22
-3.90
4.12
2.17
0.21
0.85
0.78
1.05
1.17
49
0.44
-0.19
15
11
2013
Orioles
-0.15
-0.18
0.03
-3.34
-0.33
0.43
0.32
0.61
0.13
2
-0.23
-0.13
0
1
Total
- - -
-1.09
-10.49
9.40
-9.02
-0.87
0.82
0.76
1.00
1.04
135
-0.01
-1.33
29
33
Pitch Type
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
FB%
SL%
CT%
CB%
CH%
SF%
KN%
XX%
2010
Twins
73.6% (92.1)
17.0% (85.7)
8.2% (76.7)
1.1% (85.2)
1.5%
2011
Twins
72.2% (92.9)
21.2% (85.6)
5.9% (77.6)
0.7% (85.7)
0.6%
2012
Twins
62.9% (92.7)
19.8% (85.2)
17.1% (77.2)
0.1% (84.0)
1.8%
2013
Orioles
68.4% (90.2)
15.8% (83.5)
5.3% (75.0)
10.5% (82.3)
Total
- - -
68.9% (92.6)
19.4% (85.4)
11.0% (77.1)
0.7% (84.7)
1.4%
PITCHf/x Pitch Type
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
FA%
FT%
FC%
FS%
FO%
SI%
SL%
CU%
KC%
EP%
CH%
SC%
KN%
UN%
2010
Twins
68.7 %
3.2 %
16.9 %
8.5 %
1.3 %
2011
Twins
19.5 %
52.9 %
19.7 %
5.8 %
1.4 %
2012
Twins
23.4 %
38.5 %
19.3 %
16.9 %
0.1 %
2013
Orioles
21.1 %
57.9 %
15.8 %
5.3 %
Total
- - -
35.4 %
32.8 %
18.7 %
11.0 %
0.8 %
PITCHf/x Pitch Velocity
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
vFA
vFT
vFC
vFS
vFO
vSI
vSL
vCU
vKC
vEP
vCH
vSC
vKN
2010
Twins
92.1
91.0
85.8
77.2
85.3
2011
Twins
93.3
92.6
85.5
77.6
85.3
2012
Twins
92.9
92.5
85.1
77.2
85.6
2013
Orioles
90.8
88.6
83.3
75.0
Total
- - -
92.5
92.4
85.4
77.2
85.3
Pitch Values
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
wFB
wSL
wCT
wCB
wCH
wSF
wKN
wFB/C
wSL/C
wCT/C
wCB/C
wCH/C
wSF/C
wKN/C
2010
Twins
-1.4
0.7
-3.7
0.1
-0.22
0.52
-5.47
1.00
2011
Twins
-0.5
-1.7
0.3
0.2
-0.08
-0.94
0.57
4.10
2012
Twins
0.7
5.5
-2.4
-0.1
0.10
2.46
-1.26
-9.72
2013
Orioles
-1.6
0.0
-0.4
0.1
-6.21
-0.19
-21.17
2.44
Total
- - -
-2.8
4.5
-6.3
0.3
-0.14
0.82
-2.01
1.68
PITCHf/x Pitch Values
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
wFA
wFT
wFC
wFS
wFO
wSI
wSL
wCU
wKC
wEP
wCH
wSC
wKN
2010
Twins
-1.9
0.5
0.5
-3.6
0.1
2011
Twins
-1.8
1.9
-1.1
0.3
-0.2
2012
Twins
-1.3
2.3
5.2
-2.5
0.2
2013
Orioles
-1.4
-0.2
0.0
-0.4
Total
- - -
-6.4
4.5
4.6
-6.2
0.1
PITCHf/x Pitch Values / 100
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
wFA/C
wFT/C
wFC/C
wFS/C
wFO/C
wSI/C
wSL/C
wCU/C
wKC/C
wEP/C
wCH/C
wSC/C
wKN/C
2010
Twins
-0.33
1.78
0.38
-5.02
0.78
2011
Twins
-1.09
0.42
-0.68
0.57
-1.58
2012
Twins
-0.50
0.51
2.38
-1.31
17.36
2013
Orioles
-16.99
-0.88
-0.16
-21.17
Total
- - -
-0.63
0.47
0.86
-1.97
0.29
Plate Discipline
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
|
Averages
Season
Team
O-Swing%
Z-Swing%
Swing%
O-Contact%
Z-Contact%
Contact%
Zone%
F-Strike%
SwStr%
2010
Twins
30.1 %
71.1 %
48.8 %
72.7 %
90.8 %
84.7 %
45.5 %
55.5 %
7.3 %
2010
Average
29.3 %
64.4 %
45.6 %
66.5 %
88.1 %
80.7 %
46.5 %
58.8 %
8.5 %
2011
Twins
31.2 %
64.0 %
46.5 %
80.7 %
91.6 %
87.7 %
46.6 %
60.9 %
5.4 %
2011
Average
30.6 %
65.0 %
46.2 %
68.1 %
87.9 %
80.7 %
45.3 %
59.4 %
8.6 %
2012
Twins
35.2 %
66.2 %
49.6 %
74.3 %
92.4 %
85.5 %
46.5 %
61.2 %
7.0 %
2012
Average
30.8 %
64.7 %
46.0 %
66.8 %
87.2 %
79.7 %
44.9 %
59.8 %
9.1 %
2013
Orioles
22.7 %
50.0 %
34.2 %
80.0 %
87.5 %
84.6 %
42.1 %
40.0 %
5.3 %
2013
Average
29.6 %
64.9 %
45.8 %
66.1 %
86.6 %
79.4 %
46.0 %
60.1 %
9.2 %
Total
- - -
32.3 %
66.7 %
48.2 %
75.8 %
91.7 %
85.9 %
46.2 %
59.2 %
6.6 %
PITCHf/x Plate Discipline
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
|
Averages
Season
Team
O-Swing%
Z-Swing%
Swing%
O-Contact%
Z-Contact%
Contact%
Zone%
Pace
2010
Twins
28.8 %
67.6 %
47.0 %
67.2 %
91.8 %
83.8 %
47.0 %
23.6
2010
Average
28.0 %
61.3 %
44.7 %
64.6 %
87.9 %
80.6 %
50.1 %
21.5
2011
Twins
26.8 %
63.3 %
45.9 %
77.1 %
92.3 %
88.0 %
52.5 %
22.9
2011
Average
28.6 %
62.1 %
45.3 %
64.7 %
88.0 %
80.6 %
49.8 %
21.6
2012
Twins
31.4 %
64.8 %
48.3 %
71.8 %
92.0 %
85.5 %
50.6 %
23.2
2012
Average
29.0 %
62.2 %
45.3 %
63.6 %
87.3 %
79.6 %
49.2 %
22.1
2013
Orioles
19.1 %
52.9 %
34.2 %
75.0 %
88.9 %
84.6 %
44.7 %
22.7
2013
Average
28.7 %
62.1 %
45.0 %
63.1 %
87.3 %
79.4 %
48.9 %
22.5
Total
- - -
29.1 %
64.9 %
47.0 %
71.8 %
92.0 %
85.7 %
50.0 %
23.2
Fielding
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
Pos
G
GS
Inn
PO
A
E
FE
TE
DP
DPS
DPT
DPF
Scp
SB
CS
PB
WP
FP
TZ
2010
Twins
P
41
0
47.2
1
5
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
.857
2011
Twins
P
66
0
50.2
3
6
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
7
.900
2012
Twins
P
67
0
71.2
4
10
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
9
1.000
2013
Orioles
P
2
0
1.1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.000
Total
- - -
P
176
0
171.1
8
21
2
0
2
1
1
0
0
18
.936
Advanced Fielding
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
Pos
Inn
rSB
rGDP
rARM
rGFP
rPM
DRS
BIZ
Plays
RZR
OOZ
CPP
RPP
TZL
FSR
ARM
DPR
RngR
ErrR
UZR
UZR/150
2010
Twins
P
47.2
0
0
-1
-1
2011
Twins
P
50.2
-1
0
1
0
2012
Twins
P
71.2
-1
-1
-1
-3
2013
Orioles
P
1.1
0
0
0
0
Total
- - -
P
171.1
-2
-1
-1
-4
Value
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
RA9-Wins
BIP-Wins
LOB-Wins
FDP-Wins
RAR
WAR
Dollars
Salary
2010
Twins
-0.3
-0.4
0.3
-0.1
-2.1
-0.2
($0.8)
2011
Twins
-0.7
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.1
-0.1
($0.5)
2012
Twins
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.1
3.1
0.3
$1.4
2013
Orioles
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0
$0.0
Total
- - -
-0.7
-0.5
-0.2
-0.7
-0.1
0.0
$0.1
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