Juan Nicasio
Birthdate: 8/31/1986 (30 y, 8 m, 23 d) Bats/Throws: R/R Height/Weight: 6-4/250 Position: P Contract: $3.6M / 1 Years (2017)
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RotoWire News: Nicasio has allowed two runs and seven hits over 5.2 innings to start the season. (4/17/2017) |
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Profile: In one of the more chilling plays of last, or really any season, Nicasio took a line drive off the bat of Ian Desmond in the right temple, which was bad enough by itself. But then Nicasio landed directly on his head. One or both led to him fracturing his neck, and he underwent immediate surgery to correct it. Miraculously, Nicasio was mobile soon thereafter, visited the Rockies clubhouse before the end of the season, and is on track to be ready for the start of the season. Colorado will obviously be cautious with him in Spring Training, but they could use Nicasio on the hill, as he was putting together a pretty promising rookie campaign up to that point -- his 3.43 xFIP was the best in the Rockies’ rotation. His hallmark is good control. He had some gaudy strikeout numbers in the minors, but while those didn’t fully translate to the majors, his good walk rates mostly did. He is one to monitor during Spring Training. If it looks like he will start the season in the Rockies’ rotation, he should be a good sleeper, but if he starts in Triple-A or extended Spring Training, then hold off and grab him on the waiver wire when he makes it back to Denver. (Paul Swydan)
The Quick Opinion: Nicasio is lucky he wasn’t paralyzed, so pitching in a Major League game will really be gravy. If he is as effective when he returns to the mound as he was before taking the line drive to the head, he should be a good sleeper. |
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Profile: Microfracture knee surgery is not yet all that common in baseball, and it features a long recovery time, both markers that point against Nicasio being a contributor at the major league level this season. Then again, Nicasio has made a habit of defying the odds, as he returned quickly from the neck injury he sustained in 2011 when he took a line drive to the head. If he is able to contribute, it should be of a positive nature. In both of his first two years in the majors, Nicasio has posted a FIP at least 10 percent better than league average, and his career FIP- stands at 86. Still, thanks to his neck and knee injuries, he has not yet crossed the 130-inning barrier. The health and production risks -- he hasn't quite refined a third pitch to go with his high-velocity fastball and wicked slider -- probably mean that he's a stash at best when it comes to pre-season drafting. But as you start building a list of guys to follow for in-season waiver wire pickups, definitely add Nicasio to that list. (Paul Swydan)
The Quick Opinion: If he can successfully return from his microfracture surgery, Nicasio could be a good second-half sleeper, but that return is anything but a given, and as such you would be best served to bypass him on draft day. |
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Profile: In 2012, Nicasio didn't have a great ERA, but his 3.99 FIP was roughly league average, and his 21% strikeout percentage showed promise. He was slated to be in the rotation all season to boot, which meant he was someone to watch in the early going. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Nicasio followed the same basic profile -- high ERA, pretty decent FIP. Just enough to keep you interested. In four different outings during the season, Nicasio tossed either six or seven shutout innings, and in two of those outings he struck out nine batters. Does that sound like something you'd be interested in? Yeah, me too. But the overall picture was not as rosy. His 29% quality start percentage was pretty abysmal. In fact, of the 128 pitchers to qualify for rate stats this year (ie, those who started 20 or more games), only Barry Zito had a lower QS% than did Nicasio. The other side of the coin to his four great starts are four horrifying starts. Nicasio had four outings in which he tossed four innings or fewer and allowed at least seven runs. In three of the starts, he didn't escape the third inning, allowed at least seven runs, and posted two or fewer strikeouts. Such a start would be an atomic bomb on your fantasy ledger, especially if you play in a weekly head-to-head league. There has always been debate about whether or not he belongs in the bullpen, as he has just two good offerings (fastball and slider). There is still a lot of talent there, but since it's no longer a given whether or not Nicasio ends up being in the rotation, and because he is somewhat of a ticking time bomb, you want to avoid him on draft day.
The Quick Opinion: Nicasio remains an enigma, capable of scintillating performances but also total stinkers. As a result, it's not entirely clear whether he will be a starter or a reliever moving forward. Because of this uncertainty on both fronts, he's not someone you want to draft, but he is definitely someone to watch on the waiver wire. |
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Profile: Nicasio will be making quite the home-town leap in 2015 -- changing from Coors Field to Dodger Stadium. That's a jump from a 117 run environment by park factors (highest in the league) to a 96 run environment (sixth lowest in the league). So when Steamer puts forth a 3.79 ERA estimation for a pitcher with a career 5.03 ERA, I suspect Nicasio might hit that mark on park adjustments alone. Add in that Steamer is expecting him to pitch in relief, and maybe the numbers are even a little high. In 2014, Juan twirled 20.2 innings in relief, and during that time, he managed a 3.48 ERA and 3.59 xFIP. Perhaps that's what piqued the interest of Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman, who established a routine of turning castoff pitchers into strong relievers on the cheap in Tampa Bay. It's possible Nicasio still has a few starts left in him, but at this point, fantasy owners should not consider him anything but a possible waiver wire addition to the bullpen -- if'n his 2014 relief success translates to LA. (Bradley Woodrum)
The Quick Opinion: His starting days may be over, but Nicasio showed some promise as a reliever in 2014 -- at Coors Field, no less. It's unlikely he'll ascend high enough to snare some saves from the Dodger bullpen; still, he might be worth some waiver wire activity if you need the innings. |
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Profile: In 2015, Juan Nicasio finally escaped Coors Field — at least for his home starts — and his up-and-down season provided enough promise to make him interesting in deeper fantasy formats this season. The major good points include a 95 mph average fastball velocity as a full time reliever, more than 10 strikeouts per nine, and a miniscule 2% home run per flyball rate after never having a season below 10% with the Rockies. That latter advantage is unlikely to continue in 2016 with the Pirates, although their 88 home run park factor is second lowest in baseball and makes it more likely than nearly anywhere else. Meanwhile, Nicasio suffered from some unsustainable poor luck, as well, namely his .360 batting average on balls in play. Regression and the shift heavy Pirates should turn that around. Nicasio’s biggest obstacles in becoming a fantasy relevant reliever are his 4.9 walks per nine and the talented bullpen on his new team. The former was unusual — Nicasio has walked just 3.4 batters per nine in his career — so I’m willing to bet on a rebound. The latter is more of an issue. Mark Melancon and Tony Watson were both top 25 in reliever Wins Above Replacement, and Arquimedes Caminero was third in average fastball velocity at 97.9 mph. Nicasio’s upside is high enough that he would be worth adding if something happened to Melancon, but it’s a long shot. (Scott Spratt)
The Quick Opinion: Now out of Coors Field and into the bullpen, Juan Nicasio has some fantasy potential thanks to a 95 mph fastball and excellent strikeout rates. He will need to bring down his walk rate to help fantasy owners with their ratios, and a deep Pirates’ bullpen makes his path to saves fairly crowded. |
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Profile: Early in the 2016 season, Juan Nicasio looked like the best bet for the next pitcher Pirates’ pitching coach Ray Searage would work his magic on. Nicasio had already demonstrated elite strikeout potential in 2015, when the Dodgers made him a primary reliever for the first time and he struck out more than 10 batters per nine. Last season, Nicasio further improved his strikeout rate to 10.5 batters per nine and, more importantly, cut his walk rate from 4.9 to 3.4 per nine. Unfortunately, those peripheral improvements proved not enough to overcome his consistent underperformance in factors traditionally deemed as luck-related, in particular with his .331 batting average on balls in play and his 13.6 percent home run per flyball rate, both well above league average. If Nicasio hadn’t underachieved in literally every major league season, then he would look like the perfect breakout candidate. But since he has underachieved every season now for six seasons, then it seems that there is simply something about his pitches that make them more hittable, elite strikeout rate or not. Tony Watson is far from an established closer, but the Pirates have other intriguing bullpen options like Felipe Rivero that make Nicasio a long shot for saves. He’s best viewed as a potential in-season pickup if things finally start to go his way over the first couple of months of 2017. (Scott Spratt)
The Quick Opinion: Juan Nicasio has looked the part of an elite bullpen arm since he gave up starting in 2015 and started to strike out more than 10 batters per nine innings. Unfortunately, persistent batted ball issues make it seem as though he will never quite live up to his peripheral numbers, making him a likely mid-inning reliever for the 2017 Pirates. |
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