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Daily Notes: A Brief Review of Burch Smith's Second Start
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The 1998 Astros Were Pretty Good At Hitting
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Stream, Stream, Stream: 2x SP 5.20-5.26
Kicking Rocks: The Naysayers
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Audio: Bob Uecker Would Like One or Six Beers
A GIF and a Tune: Ian Kinsler and Modest Mussorgsky
Community Research
The Ten Lowest BABIPs Since 1945
FanGraphs+
A Special Group of Young Talent
Are the Angels Actually Improved?
2013 Pre-Season Projections
Marcel
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AL Games
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Final
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Final
CHW (4) @ LAA (5)
T - 7th
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B - 7th
BOS @ MIN
19:10
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20:05
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21:05
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Final
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T - 8th
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19:10
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19:05
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19:10
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19:15
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20:40
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2013
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AL East
Yankees
27
16
----
Red Sox
25
17
1.5
Orioles
23
18
3.0
Rays
21
20
5.0
Blue Jays
17
26
10.0
AL Central
Indians
24
17
----
Tigers
23
17
0.5
Royals
20
18
2.5
White Sox
19
21
4.5
Twins
18
20
4.5
AL West
Rangers
27
15
----
Athletics
21
22
6.5
Mariners
20
23
7.5
Angels
15
27
12.0
Astros
11
31
16.0
NL East
Braves
23
18
----
Nationals
23
19
0.5
Phillies
20
22
3.5
Mets
16
24
6.5
Marlins
11
31
12.5
NL Central
Cardinals
27
14
----
Pirates
25
17
2.5
Reds
25
17
2.5
Cubs
18
24
9.5
Brewers
16
24
10.5
NL West
Giants
24
18
----
D-backs
24
18
----
Rockies
22
20
2.0
Padres
18
23
5.5
Dodgers
17
23
6.0
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Brad Bergesen
Birthdate:
9/25/1985
Bats/Throws:
L/R
Height/Weight:
6-2/210
Position:
P
Contract:
Add New Contract
11/29/2012:
The Diamondbacks released Bergesen on Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
6/7/2011
-
Brett Anderson's Elbow Eaten by Sliders?
by
Eno Sarris (FanGraphs)
33
10/1/2010
-
Pitching For the Final Weekend
by
Eno Sarris (RotoGraphs)
1
6/29/2010
-
Stock Watch: June 29th
by
David Golebiewski (RotoGraphs)
14
3/6/2010
-
Brad Bergesen: Servicable or Bust?
by
Dan Budreika (RotoGraphs)
4
1/19/2010
-
Staring Down the Sinkerballers, Part One
by
Bryan Smith (FanGraphs)
36
Graphs
All Graphs
Season Stats
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Compare
PITCHf/x
Projections
Batting
Pitching
Standard
Advanced
Batted Ball
Win Probability
Pitch Type
Plate Discipline
Fielding
Value
Dashboard
Customize
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
W
L
SV
G
GS
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BABIP
LOB%
GB%
HR/FB
ERA
FIP
xFIP
WAR
2006
Orioles (A)
5
4
0
18
14
86.1
5.11
1.04
0.63
.307
66.9 %
4.27
3.63
2007
Orioles (A)
7
3
0
15
15
94.1
6.96
1.62
0.29
.260
72.8 %
2.19
2.83
2007
Orioles (A+)
3
6
0
10
10
56.1
5.59
1.44
0.64
.368
63.4 %
5.75
3.73
2008
Orioles (A+)
1
1
0
4
3
17.1
7.79
3.12
1.04
.265
83.3 %
2.08
4.18
2008
Orioles (AA)
15
6
0
24
23
148.0
4.38
1.64
0.67
.269
72.3 %
3.22
3.80
2009
Orioles (AAA)
1
1
0
2
2
11.0
7.36
2.45
0.00
.194
63.6 %
2.45
2.93
2009
Orioles
7
5
0
19
19
123.1
4.74
2.34
0.80
.283
75.2 %
50.1 %
8.3 %
3.43
4.10
4.36
2.2
2010
Orioles (AAA)
1
0
0
3
3
14.2
6.14
1.84
1.23
.300
75.6 %
4.30
4.22
2010
Orioles
8
12
0
30
28
170.0
4.29
2.70
1.38
.287
68.5 %
48.7 %
11.9 %
4.98
5.14
4.71
0.4
2011
Orioles (AAA)
2
1
0
3
3
22.0
7.36
3.27
0.41
.213
87.4 %
1.64
3.25
2011
Orioles
2
7
0
34
12
101.0
5.44
2.85
1.43
.304
61.6 %
41.7 %
11.9 %
5.70
4.92
4.52
0.2
2012
Orioles (AAA)
4
3
1
22
10
80.1
4.59
2.58
1.12
.297
72.3 %
4.03
4.73
2012
Diamondbacks (AAA)
0
0
0
1
1
3.2
7.36
2.45
0.00
.111
100.0 %
0.00
2.38
2012
Diamondbacks
2
1
0
19
0
29.2
5.46
2.12
0.61
.290
67.3 %
43.5 %
7.1 %
3.64
3.57
4.08
0.2
2013
Steamer
2
1
0
30
0
30.0
6.10
2.49
0.92
.306
71.9 %
3.92
3.99
0.1
2013
Bill James
2
3
0
32
0
52.0
4.85
2.77
1.21
.301
4.50
4.74
2013
Oliver
7
8
134.0
4.76
2.75
1.01
.293
70.9 %
4.29
4.43
2013
ZiPS
5
7
36
15
120.7
5.00
2.98
1.34
.305
66.8 %
5.29
5.07
-0.4
Total
- - -
19
25
0
102
59
424.0
4.78
2.59
1.17
.290
68.6 %
47.1 %
10.7 %
4.61
4.67
4.52
3.0
News
9/11
-
THT Awards
by
John Barten
3/5
-
Five questions: Baltimore Orioles
by
Paul Folkemer
7/26
-
THT Awards
by
John Barten
2/27
-
2013 MLB exports: A look at everyone who's headed to East As»
by
MLB Daily Dish
2/12
-
Homegrown Starting Pitching in the Peter Angelos Era
by
Camden Chat
12/10
-
Minor Moves: Winter Meetings week
by
MLB Daily Dish
12/3
-
D-Backs Sell Bergesen To Chunichi Dragons
by
Luke Adams
11/30
-
Bergesen, Chunichi Dragons Nearing Deal
by
Ben Nicholson-Smith
11/30
-
Diamondbacks Release Brad Bergesen
by
Ben Nicholson-Smith
Standard
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
W
L
ERA
G
GS
CG
ShO
SV
HLD
BS
IP
TBF
H
R
ER
HR
BB
IBB
HBP
WP
BK
SO
2006
Orioles (A)
5
4
4.27
18
14
1
0
0
86.1
370
97
44
41
6
10
0
9
5
0
49
2007
Orioles (A)
7
3
2.19
15
15
1
0
0
94.1
377
75
30
23
3
17
0
7
2
1
73
2007
Orioles (A+)
3
6
5.75
10
10
1
0
0
56.1
256
78
38
36
4
9
0
7
3
1
35
2008
Orioles (A+)
1
1
2.08
4
3
0
0
0
17.1
73
15
6
4
2
6
0
1
0
0
15
2008
Orioles (AA)
15
6
3.22
24
23
3
2
0
148.0
603
143
59
53
11
27
0
3
5
0
72
2009
Orioles (AAA)
1
1
2.45
2
2
0
0
0
11.0
45
6
4
3
0
3
0
2
0
0
9
2009
Orioles
7
5
3.43
19
19
1
0
0
0
0
123.1
519
126
52
47
11
32
4
5
2
0
65
2010
Orioles (AAA)
1
0
4.30
3
3
0
0
0
14.2
65
17
7
7
2
3
0
0
0
0
10
2010
Orioles
8
12
4.98
30
28
2
0
0
0
0
170.0
746
193
104
94
26
51
4
7
0
3
81
2011
Orioles (AAA)
2
1
1.64
3
3
1
1
0
22.0
88
14
4
4
1
8
0
0
0
0
18
2011
Orioles
2
7
5.70
34
12
1
1
0
0
0
101.0
451
119
73
64
16
32
3
3
2
0
61
2012
Orioles (AAA)
4
3
4.03
22
10
0
0
1
80.1
345
90
42
36
10
23
1
2
1
0
41
2012
Diamondbacks (AAA)
0
0
0.00
1
1
0
0
0
3.2
13
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
3
2012
Diamondbacks
2
1
3.64
19
0
0
0
0
0
1
29.2
121
29
14
12
2
7
0
1
2
0
18
2013
Steamer
2
1
3.92
30
0
0
30.0
129
31
14
13
3
8
1
20
2013
Bill James
2
3
4.50
32
0
0
52.0
58
7
16
2
28
2013
Oliver
7
8
4.29
12
134.0
574
145
69
64
15
41
2
4
71
2013
ZiPS
5
7
5.29
36
15
120.7
138
76
71
18
40
2
6
2
1
67
Total
- - -
19
25
4.61
102
59
4
1
0
0
1
424.0
1837
467
243
217
55
122
11
16
6
3
225
Advanced
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
|
Averages
Season
Team
K/9
BB/9
K/BB
HR/9
K%
BB%
AVG
WHIP
BABIP
LOB%
ERA-
FIP-
FIP
2006
Orioles (A)
5.11
1.04
4.90
0.63
13.2 %
2.7 %
.276
1.24
.307
66.9 %
3.63
2007
Orioles (A)
6.96
1.62
4.29
0.29
19.4 %
4.5 %
.213
0.98
.260
72.8 %
2.83
2007
Orioles (A+)
5.59
1.44
3.89
0.64
13.7 %
3.5 %
.325
1.54
.368
63.4 %
3.73
2008
Orioles (A+)
7.79
3.12
2.50
1.04
20.6 %
8.2 %
.227
1.21
.265
83.3 %
4.18
2008
Orioles (AA)
4.38
1.64
2.67
0.67
11.9 %
4.5 %
.250
1.15
.269
72.3 %
3.80
2009
Orioles (AAA)
7.36
2.45
3.00
0.00
20.0 %
6.7 %
.150
0.82
.194
63.6 %
2.93
2009
Orioles
4.74
2.34
2.03
0.80
12.5 %
6.2 %
.261
1.28
.283
75.2 %
75
91
4.10
2009
Average
6.99
3.46
2.02
1.05
18.0 %
8.9 %
.258
1.39
.295
71.9 %
4.42
2010
Orioles (AAA)
6.14
1.84
3.33
1.23
15.4 %
4.6 %
.274
1.36
.300
75.6 %
4.22
2010
Orioles
4.29
2.70
1.59
1.38
10.9 %
6.8 %
.281
1.44
.287
68.5 %
117
120
5.14
2010
Average
7.13
3.28
2.17
0.96
18.5 %
8.5 %
.253
1.35
.293
72.2 %
4.20
2011
Orioles (AAA)
7.36
3.27
2.25
0.41
20.5 %
9.1 %
.175
1.00
.213
87.4 %
3.25
2011
Orioles
5.44
2.85
1.91
1.43
13.5 %
7.1 %
.286
1.50
.304
61.6 %
136
118
4.92
2011
Average
7.13
3.11
2.30
0.94
18.6 %
8.1 %
.251
1.32
.291
72.5 %
4.12
2012
Orioles (AAA)
4.59
2.58
1.78
1.12
11.9 %
6.7 %
.281
1.41
.297
72.3 %
4.73
2012
Diamondbacks (AAA)
7.36
2.45
3.00
0.00
23.1 %
7.7 %
.083
0.55
.111
100.0 %
2.38
2012
Diamondbacks
5.46
2.12
2.57
0.61
14.9 %
5.8 %
.257
1.21
.290
67.3 %
87
86
3.57
2012
Average
7.56
3.05
2.48
1.02
19.8 %
8.0 %
.250
1.31
.293
72.5 %
4.12
2013
Steamer
6.10
2.49
2.45
0.92
.271
1.32
.306
71.9 %
3.99
2013
Bill James
4.85
2.77
1.75
1.21
.283
1.42
.301
4.74
2013
Oliver
4.76
2.75
1.73
1.01
12.4 %
7.1 %
.274
1.38
.293
70.9 %
4.43
2013
ZiPS
5.00
2.98
1.68
1.34
.288
1.47
.305
66.8 %
5.07
Total
- - -
4.78
2.59
1.84
1.17
12.3 %
6.6 %
.275
1.39
.290
68.6 %
107
109
4.67
Batted Ball
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
GB/FB
LD%
GB%
FB%
IFFB%
HR/FB
IFH%
BUH%
tERA
SIERA
xFIP-
xFIP
2009
Orioles
1.55
17.5 %
50.1 %
32.4 %
6.0 %
8.3 %
6.8 %
16.7 %
4.33
4.51
99
4.36
2010
Orioles
1.33
14.6 %
48.7 %
36.6 %
6.9 %
11.9 %
6.9 %
16.7 %
4.95
4.81
113
4.71
2011
Orioles
1.10
20.6 %
41.7 %
37.7 %
8.2 %
11.9 %
9.5 %
0.0 %
5.45
4.43
112
4.52
2012
Diamondbacks
1.43
26.1 %
43.5 %
30.4 %
7.1 %
7.1 %
5.0 %
0.0 %
5.05
3.93
104
4.08
Total
- - -
1.33
17.6 %
47.1 %
35.3 %
7.0 %
10.7 %
7.3 %
14.3 %
4.90
4.58
108
4.52
More Batted Ball
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
GB
FB
LD
IFFB
IFH
BU
BUH
RS
Balls
Strikes
Pitches
2009
Orioles
206
133
72
8
14
6
1
72
657
1207
1864
2010
Orioles
290
218
87
15
20
12
2
75
941
1669
2610
2011
Orioles
148
134
73
11
14
0
0
45
591
1069
1660
2012
Diamondbacks
40
28
24
2
2
3
0
14
130
282
412
Total
- - -
684
513
256
36
50
21
3
206
2319
4227
6546
Win Probability
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
WPA
-WPA
+WPA
RE24
REW
pLI
inLI
gmLI
exLI
Pulls
WPA/LI
Clutch
SD
MD
2009
Orioles
1.19
-7.96
9.15
15.78
1.47
0.97
0.90
0.88
1.08
18
1.55
-0.32
0
0
2010
Orioles
-0.57
-13.33
12.76
-20.25
-2.18
0.97
0.93
0.83
1.30
27
-2.10
1.50
0
0
2011
Orioles
-1.77
-6.75
4.98
-25.57
-2.38
0.67
0.58
0.48
0.48
30
-1.78
-0.85
1
2
2012
Diamondbacks
-0.28
-1.37
1.09
1.83
0.18
0.56
0.59
0.67
0.74
14
-0.07
-0.42
2
3
Total
- - -
-1.43
-29.41
27.98
-28.21
-2.91
0.87
0.81
0.69
0.89
89
-2.40
0.75
3
5
Pitch Type
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
FB%
SL%
CT%
CB%
CH%
SF%
KN%
XX%
2009
Orioles
67.3% (89.2)
24.0% (81.8)
1.6% (75.4)
7.2% (81.6)
2.0%
2010
Orioles
63.9% (90.0)
23.3% (82.2)
2.2% (78.8)
10.6% (82.5)
2.6%
2011
Orioles
65.1% (91.0)
24.7% (84.6)
0.8% (77.6)
9.4% (84.2)
0.7%
2012
Diamondbacks
62.9% (91.2)
33.7% (84.7)
3.4% (83.5)
Total
- - -
65.1% (90.1)
24.5% (82.9)
1.5% (77.5)
8.9% (82.8)
1.8%
PITCHf/x Pitch Type
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
FA%
FT%
FC%
FS%
FO%
SI%
SL%
CU%
KC%
EP%
CH%
SC%
KN%
UN%
2009
Orioles
41.8 %
19.6 %
21.6 %
3.3 %
13.3 %
0.2 %
2010
Orioles
40.0 %
23.2 %
2.9 %
25.4 %
8.3 %
2011
Orioles
49.8 %
18.9 %
0.1 %
20.2 %
10.3 %
2012
Diamondbacks
32.5 %
30.3 %
34.0 %
3.2 %
Total
- - -
42.5 %
21.5 %
1.2 %
23.6 %
0.9 %
9.9 %
0.1 %
PITCHf/x Pitch Velocity
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
vFA
vFT
vFC
vFS
vFO
vSI
vSL
vCU
vKC
vEP
vCH
vSC
vKN
2009
Orioles
89.3
89.4
81.6
79.5
83.5
2010
Orioles
90.5
89.2
83.8
81.8
82.4
2011
Orioles
90.9
90.3
82.5
83.9
84.2
2012
Diamondbacks
91.0
91.3
84.7
83.6
Total
- - -
90.3
89.7
83.8
82.5
79.5
83.3
Pitch Values
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
wFB
wSL
wCT
wCB
wCH
wSF
wKN
wFB/C
wSL/C
wCT/C
wCB/C
wCH/C
wSF/C
wKN/C
2009
Orioles
3.4
2.0
-1.2
0.6
0.27
0.46
-4.08
0.48
2010
Orioles
-26.8
-0.2
-0.5
-0.6
-1.65
-0.03
-0.92
-0.23
2011
Orioles
-13.3
-6.7
0.0
-1.0
-1.24
-1.64
-0.19
-0.62
2012
Diamondbacks
0.0
2.9
-1.0
0.00
2.06
-6.84
Total
- - -
-36.8
-1.9
-1.7
-1.9
-0.88
-0.12
-1.77
-0.34
PITCHf/x Pitch Values
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
wFA
wFT
wFC
wFS
wFO
wSI
wSL
wCU
wKC
wEP
wCH
wSC
wKN
2009
Orioles
-3.3
2.5
-3.3
0.6
4.0
2010
Orioles
-6.0
-19.9
0.2
-0.9
-1.5
2011
Orioles
-11.5
-3.9
0.0
-2.0
-2.9
2012
Diamondbacks
-1.8
1.8
2.9
-0.9
Total
- - -
-22.7
-19.6
0.2
-3.4
0.6
-1.3
PITCHf/x Pitch Values / 100
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
wFA/C
wFT/C
wFC/C
wFS/C
wFO/C
wSI/C
wSL/C
wCU/C
wKC/C
wEP/C
wCH/C
wSC/C
wKN/C
2009
Orioles
-0.43
0.68
-0.83
0.98
1.63
2010
Orioles
-0.58
-3.30
0.29
-0.14
-0.68
2011
Orioles
-1.40
-1.26
0.73
-0.60
-1.73
2012
Diamondbacks
-1.37
1.46
2.05
-7.07
Total
- - -
-0.82
-1.39
0.30
-0.22
0.98
-0.21
Plate Discipline
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
|
Averages
Season
Team
O-Swing%
Z-Swing%
Swing%
O-Contact%
Z-Contact%
Contact%
Zone%
F-Strike%
SwStr%
2009
Orioles
26.1 %
66.6 %
46.8 %
70.3 %
91.2 %
85.5 %
51.2 %
60.7 %
6.6 %
2009
Average
25.1 %
66.0 %
45.3 %
61.7 %
87.8 %
80.5 %
49.3 %
58.2 %
8.6 %
2010
Orioles
28.9 %
64.9 %
45.7 %
75.7 %
94.6 %
88.3 %
46.7 %
63.4 %
5.1 %
2010
Average
29.3 %
64.4 %
45.6 %
66.5 %
88.1 %
80.7 %
46.5 %
58.8 %
8.5 %
2011
Orioles
28.3 %
67.1 %
47.4 %
78.6 %
90.9 %
87.2 %
49.1 %
65.6 %
6.0 %
2011
Average
30.6 %
65.0 %
46.2 %
68.1 %
87.9 %
80.7 %
45.3 %
59.4 %
8.6 %
2012
Diamondbacks
30.7 %
68.9 %
50.1 %
80.3 %
90.1 %
87.2 %
50.9 %
66.1 %
6.3 %
2012
Average
30.8 %
64.7 %
46.0 %
66.8 %
87.2 %
79.7 %
44.9 %
59.8 %
9.1 %
Total
- - -
28.1 %
66.2 %
46.7 %
75.4 %
92.3 %
87.1 %
48.9 %
63.4 %
5.8 %
PITCHf/x Plate Discipline
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
|
Averages
Season
Team
O-Swing%
Z-Swing%
Swing%
O-Contact%
Z-Contact%
Contact%
Zone%
Pace
2009
Orioles
28.6 %
62.3 %
46.2 %
75.1 %
91.1 %
86.4 %
52.3 %
18.8
2009
Average
27.6 %
61.4 %
44.5 %
65.5 %
88.0 %
81.0 %
50.1 %
21.4
2010
Orioles
27.3 %
61.4 %
44.7 %
73.6 %
94.5 %
88.2 %
51.1 %
18.4
2010
Average
28.0 %
61.3 %
44.7 %
64.6 %
87.9 %
80.6 %
50.1 %
21.5
2011
Orioles
26.6 %
65.0 %
46.5 %
78.7 %
90.1 %
87.0 %
51.9 %
18.6
2011
Average
28.6 %
62.1 %
45.3 %
64.7 %
88.0 %
80.6 %
49.8 %
21.6
2012
Diamondbacks
28.7 %
67.7 %
49.5 %
81.8 %
87.9 %
86.3 %
53.4 %
20.3
2012
Average
29.0 %
62.2 %
45.3 %
63.6 %
87.3 %
79.6 %
49.2 %
22.1
Total
- - -
27.6 %
63.0 %
45.9 %
75.8 %
91.9 %
87.2 %
51.8 %
18.7
Fielding
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
Pos
G
GS
Inn
PO
A
E
FE
TE
DP
DPS
DPT
DPF
Scp
SB
CS
PB
WP
FP
TZ
2009
Orioles
P
19
19
123.1
13
26
0
0
0
2
1
0
1
1
1.000
2010
Orioles
P
30
28
170.0
11
22
0
0
0
3
1
0
2
9
1.000
2011
Orioles
P
34
12
101.0
4
12
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
4
.889
2012
Diamondbacks
P
19
0
29.2
1
4
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
.833
Total
- - -
P
102
59
424.0
29
64
3
1
2
5
2
0
3
15
.969
Advanced Fielding
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
Pos
Inn
rSB
rGDP
rARM
rGFP
rPM
DRS
BIZ
Plays
RZR
OOZ
CPP
RPP
TZL
FSR
ARM
DPR
RngR
ErrR
UZR
UZR/150
2009
Orioles
P
123.1
1
0
5
6
2010
Orioles
P
170.0
0
0
4
4
2011
Orioles
P
101.0
1
0
1
2
2012
Diamondbacks
P
29.2
0
0
0
0
Total
- - -
P
424.0
2
0
10
12
Value
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
RA9-Wins
BIP-Wins
LOB-Wins
FDP-Wins
RAR
WAR
Dollars
Salary
2009
Orioles
3.1
0.5
0.4
1.0
21.9
2.2
$9.8
2010
Orioles
0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.1
4.4
0.4
$1.7
2011
Orioles
-1.1
-0.3
-0.9
-1.2
1.9
0.2
$0.8
2012
Diamondbacks
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
2.0
0.2
$0.9
Total
- - -
2.5
0.5
-0.9
-0.5
30.1
3.0
$13.3
Contracts
$0.8m / 1 Years (2012)
(
Edit
)
signed by Baltimore Orioles on 2/9/2012 (Avoided Arbitration)
2012:
$0.8M
Source:
espn.go.com
Submitted by Jeff Zimmerman
Add New Contract