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FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 5/21/13
On the Not Literally Venomous Patrick Corbin
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Bullpen Report: May 21, 2013
RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 5/21/13
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The Saddest Greatest Baseball Card I Own
Eno Sarris Pronunciation Guide: Trey Michalczewski
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The Ten Lowest BABIPs Since 1945
FanGraphs+
A Special Group of Young Talent
Are the Angels Actually Improved?
2013 Pre-Season Projections
Marcel
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FANS
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Steamer
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Oliver
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AL Games
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F - 10th
DET (5) @ CLE (1)
Final
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Final
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SEA (0) @ LAA (7)
B - 5th
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B - 10th
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Team Batting Stats
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Team Pitching Stats
2013
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2012
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2008
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2007
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2006
...
AL East
Yankees
28
17
----
Red Sox
27
19
1.5
Orioles
24
21
4.0
Rays
24
21
4.0
Blue Jays
18
27
10.0
AL Central
Indians
26
18
----
Tigers
24
19
1.5
Royals
20
21
4.5
White Sox
21
23
5.0
Twins
18
23
6.5
AL West
Rangers
29
17
----
Athletics
25
22
4.5
Mariners
20
25
8.5
Angels
17
27
11.0
Astros
13
32
15.5
NL East
Braves
26
18
----
Nationals
23
22
3.5
Phillies
22
24
5.0
Mets
17
26
8.5
Marlins
13
33
14.0
NL Central
Cardinals
28
16
----
Reds
28
18
1.0
Pirates
27
18
1.5
Cubs
18
26
10.0
Brewers
18
26
10.0
NL West
D-backs
26
19
----
Giants
25
20
1.0
Rockies
24
21
2.0
Padres
21
23
4.5
Dodgers
18
26
7.5
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Dustin McGowan
Birthdate:
3/24/1982
Bats/Throws:
R/R
Height/Weight:
6-3/220
Position:
P
Contract:
Add New Contract
5/17/2013:
McGowan (shoulder) is moving from Dunedin to Buffalo to continue his rehab assignment, Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com reports.
2/14/2013
-
MASH Report (2/14/13)
by
Jeff Zimmerman (RotoGraphs)
8
8/8/2012
-
Blue Jays Pitchers Injured at Record Pace?
by
Eno Sarris (FanGraphs)
36
6/28/2012
-
Sabathia, Pettitte Latest Victims of ALE Injury Bu»
by
Mike Axisa (FanGraphs)
16
4/2/2012
-
Roto Riteup: April 2nd, 2012
by
Zach Sanders (RotoGraphs)
2
3/27/2012
-
Blue Jays Extend McGowan
by
Chris Cwik (FanGraphs)
40
Graphs
All Graphs
Season Stats
Splits
Game Log
Play Log
Compare
PITCHf/x
Projections
Batting
Pitching
Standard
Advanced
Batted Ball
Win Probability
Pitch Type
Plate Discipline
Fielding
Value
Dashboard
Customize
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
W
L
SV
G
GS
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BABIP
LOB%
GB%
HR/FB
ERA
FIP
xFIP
WAR
2005
Blue Jays
1
3
0
13
7
45.1
6.75
3.38
1.39
.300
61.7 %
44.8 %
13.5 %
6.35
5.12
4.69
0.1
2006
Blue Jays (AAA)
4
5
1
23
13
84.0
9.21
4.18
0.75
.299
67.8 %
4.39
3.74
2006
Blue Jays
1
2
0
16
3
27.1
7.24
8.23
0.66
.359
59.1 %
43.0 %
6.9 %
7.24
5.45
5.99
0.0
2007
Blue Jays (AAA)
0
2
0
5
5
22.0
11.86
3.68
0.00
.314
76.0 %
1.64
1.79
2007
Blue Jays
12
10
0
27
27
169.2
7.64
3.24
0.74
.273
68.1 %
53.0 %
9.2 %
4.08
3.73
3.79
3.5
2008
Blue Jays
6
7
0
19
19
111.1
6.87
3.07
0.73
.315
67.4 %
41.4 %
7.1 %
4.37
3.81
4.27
2.2
2011
Blue Jays (A+)
0
2
0
7
7
15.2
9.77
4.02
0.00
.310
75.0 %
2.87
2.37
2011
Blue Jays (AA)
0
2
0
5
5
19.2
8.24
3.20
0.92
.302
81.1 %
2.75
3.76
2011
Blue Jays
0
2
0
5
4
21.0
8.57
5.57
1.71
.276
66.9 %
50.0 %
19.0 %
6.43
5.60
4.38
-0.1
2013
Steamer
3
2
0
8
8
50.0
7.80
3.61
0.93
.307
70.3 %
4.24
4.02
0.7
2013
Oliver
3
3
55.0
7.04
4.09
0.98
.295
69.8 %
4.42
4.36
2013
ZiPS
4
5
13
13
74.0
6.81
3.89
1.22
.314
68.4 %
5.11
4.80
0.4
2013
Blue Jays (A+)
0
0
0
2
0
2.0
18.00
4.50
0.00
.333
100.0 %
0.00
0.70
2013
Blue Jays (AAA)
0
0
0
1
0
1.0
9.00
0.00
0.00
.000
100.0 %
0.00
1.20
Total
- - -
20
24
0
80
60
374.2
7.33
3.70
0.86
.296
65.9 %
47.5 %
9.4 %
4.80
4.15
4.23
5.8
News
2/11
-
Daisuke Matsuzaka’s wild new contract
by
Scott Spratt
3/9
-
Five questions: Toronto Blue Jays
by
Chris Lund
11/16
-
Offseason Decisions: How far off are the Jays?
by
Chris Lund
5/20
-
Monday Morning Media Mashup: Big White Mother Edition
by
Bluebird Banter
5/19
-
Poll Time: Who will we see with the Blue Jays first?
by
Bluebird Banter
5/19
-
Minor League Recap for Saturday May 18: Dustin McGowan, Aaro»
by
Bluebird Banter
11/13
-
AL East Links: Ibanez, Orioles, Blue Jays, Red Sox
by
Mike Axisa
8/7
-
Pitching Notes: Blue Jays, Lee, Garza, Oswalt
by
Ben Nicholson-Smith
3/26
-
Blue Jays Extend Dustin McGowan
by
Ben Nicholson-Smith
Standard
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
W
L
ERA
G
GS
CG
ShO
SV
HLD
BS
IP
TBF
H
R
ER
HR
BB
IBB
HBP
WP
BK
SO
2005
Blue Jays
1
3
6.35
13
7
0
0
0
1
0
45.1
205
49
34
32
7
17
0
7
7
0
34
2006
Blue Jays (AAA)
4
5
4.39
23
13
0
0
1
84.0
369
77
45
41
7
39
0
3
10
0
86
2006
Blue Jays
1
2
7.24
16
3
0
0
0
1
1
27.1
143
35
27
22
2
25
2
2
3
1
22
2007
Blue Jays (AAA)
0
2
1.64
5
5
0
0
0
22.0
89
16
6
4
0
9
0
0
2
0
29
2007
Blue Jays
12
10
4.08
27
27
2
1
0
0
0
169.2
705
146
80
77
14
61
3
2
13
0
144
2008
Blue Jays
6
7
4.37
19
19
1
0
0
0
0
111.1
474
115
60
54
9
38
1
5
5
0
85
2011
Blue Jays (A+)
0
2
2.87
7
7
0
0
0
15.2
66
13
5
5
0
7
0
0
0
0
17
2011
Blue Jays (AA)
0
2
2.75
5
5
0
0
0
19.2
80
18
7
6
2
7
0
0
0
0
18
2011
Blue Jays
0
2
6.43
5
4
0
0
0
0
0
21.0
96
20
15
15
4
13
0
1
3
0
20
2013
Steamer
3
2
4.24
8
8
0
50.0
216
48
25
24
5
20
2
43
2013
Oliver
3
3
4.42
0
55.0
242
55
30
27
6
25
0
2
43
2013
ZiPS
4
5
5.11
13
13
74.0
80
45
42
10
32
0
4
4
0
56
2013
Blue Jays (A+)
0
0
0.00
2
0
0
0
0
2.0
8
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
4
2013
Blue Jays (AAA)
0
0
0.00
1
0
0
0
0
1.0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
Total
- - -
20
24
4.80
80
60
3
1
0
2
1
374.2
1623
365
216
200
36
154
6
17
31
1
305
Advanced
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
|
Averages
Season
Team
K/9
BB/9
K/BB
HR/9
K%
BB%
AVG
WHIP
BABIP
LOB%
ERA-
FIP-
FIP
2005
Blue Jays
6.75
3.38
2.00
1.39
16.6 %
8.3 %
.271
1.46
.300
61.7 %
142
115
5.12
2005
Average
6.38
3.17
2.02
1.04
16.5 %
8.2 %
.260
1.37
.292
71.6 %
4.47
2006
Blue Jays (AAA)
9.21
4.18
2.21
0.75
23.3 %
10.6 %
.236
1.38
.299
67.8 %
3.74
2006
Blue Jays
7.24
8.23
0.88
0.66
15.4 %
17.5 %
.302
2.20
.359
59.1 %
157
119
5.45
2006
Average
6.59
3.30
2.00
1.12
16.8 %
8.4 %
.265
1.41
.298
70.9 %
4.58
2007
Blue Jays (AAA)
11.86
3.68
3.22
0.00
32.6 %
10.1 %
.200
1.14
.314
76.0 %
1.79
2007
Blue Jays
7.64
3.24
2.36
0.74
20.4 %
8.7 %
.227
1.22
.273
68.1 %
91
85
3.73
2007
Average
6.67
3.33
2.00
1.03
17.1 %
8.5 %
.263
1.41
.299
70.7 %
4.43
2008
Blue Jays
6.87
3.07
2.24
0.73
17.9 %
8.0 %
.267
1.37
.315
67.4 %
101
89
3.81
2008
Average
6.83
3.39
2.01
1.01
17.5 %
8.7 %
.259
1.39
.296
71.4 %
4.39
2011
Blue Jays (A+)
9.77
4.02
2.43
0.00
25.8 %
10.6 %
.220
1.28
.310
75.0 %
2.37
2011
Blue Jays (AA)
8.24
3.20
2.57
0.92
22.5 %
8.8 %
.247
1.27
.302
81.1 %
3.76
2011
Blue Jays
8.57
5.57
1.54
1.71
20.8 %
13.5 %
.244
1.57
.276
66.9 %
156
137
5.60
2011
Average
7.13
3.11
2.30
0.94
18.6 %
8.1 %
.251
1.32
.291
72.5 %
4.12
2013
Steamer
7.80
3.61
2.16
0.93
.256
1.37
.307
70.3 %
4.02
2013
Oliver
7.04
4.09
1.72
0.98
17.8 %
10.3 %
.256
1.45
.295
69.8 %
4.36
2013
ZiPS
6.81
3.89
1.75
1.22
.277
1.51
.314
68.4 %
4.80
2013
Blue Jays (A+)
18.00
4.50
4.00
0.00
50.0 %
12.5 %
.143
1.00
.333
100.0 %
0.70
2013
Blue Jays (AAA)
9.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
33.3 %
0.0 %
.000
0.00
.000
100.0 %
1.20
Total
- - -
7.33
3.70
1.98
0.86
18.8 %
9.5 %
.251
1.39
.296
65.9 %
108
95
4.15
Batted Ball
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
GB/FB
LD%
GB%
FB%
IFFB%
HR/FB
IFH%
BUH%
tERA
SIERA
xFIP-
xFIP
2005
Blue Jays
1.25
19.3 %
44.8 %
35.9 %
5.8 %
13.5 %
9.2 %
100.0 %
5.56
4.27
108
4.69
2006
Blue Jays
1.38
25.8 %
43.0 %
31.2 %
6.9 %
6.9 %
5.0 %
0.0 %
6.38
5.86
132
5.99
2007
Blue Jays
1.71
16.0 %
53.0 %
31.0 %
6.5 %
9.2 %
3.8 %
0.0 %
3.52
3.95
85
3.79
2008
Blue Jays
1.10
21.0 %
41.4 %
37.6 %
11.0 %
7.1 %
6.4 %
37.5 %
4.16
4.29
99
4.27
2011
Blue Jays
1.48
16.1 %
50.0 %
33.9 %
4.8 %
19.0 %
3.2 %
0.0 %
5.57
4.34
108
4.38
Total
- - -
1.41
18.7 %
47.5 %
33.7 %
7.9 %
9.4 %
5.2 %
33.3 %
4.29
4.28
97
4.23
More Batted Ball
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
GB
FB
LD
IFFB
IFH
BU
BUH
RS
Balls
Strikes
Pitches
2005
Blue Jays
65
52
28
3
6
2
2
25
317
449
766
2006
Blue Jays
40
29
24
2
2
1
0
17
252
305
557
2007
Blue Jays
262
153
79
10
10
4
0
92
1044
1658
2702
2008
Blue Jays
140
127
71
14
9
8
3
50
682
1120
1802
2011
Blue Jays
31
21
10
1
1
0
0
7
161
215
376
Total
- - -
538
382
212
30
28
15
5
191
2456
3747
6203
Win Probability
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
WPA
-WPA
+WPA
RE24
REW
pLI
inLI
gmLI
exLI
Pulls
WPA/LI
Clutch
SD
MD
2005
Blue Jays
-0.60
-3.51
2.91
-9.39
-0.98
0.86
0.76
0.77
1.19
11
-0.53
-0.17
2
0
2006
Blue Jays
-0.60
-2.25
1.64
-10.49
-0.99
0.82
0.65
0.78
0.98
13
-0.32
-0.41
2
4
2007
Blue Jays
0.13
-11.89
12.02
7.96
0.89
0.95
0.88
0.87
0.95
25
1.47
-1.34
0
0
2008
Blue Jays
-0.27
-9.54
9.27
-4.36
-0.38
1.15
0.98
0.87
1.32
18
-0.46
0.23
0
0
2011
Blue Jays
-0.38
-1.62
1.25
-3.85
-0.38
0.79
0.69
0.70
0.97
5
-0.04
-0.44
0
0
Total
- - -
-1.71
-28.81
27.10
-20.13
-1.85
0.98
0.86
0.83
1.08
72
0.12
-1.88
4
4
Pitch Type
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
FB%
SL%
CT%
CB%
CH%
SF%
KN%
XX%
2005
Blue Jays
63.3% (93.0)
14.4% (84.3)
0.2% (91.0)
11.0% (76.6)
8.6% (81.1)
2.6% (00.0)
12.9%
2006
Blue Jays
68.5% (94.4)
17.6% (85.1)
5.9% (77.8)
8.0% (85.3)
3.2%
2007
Blue Jays
59.2% (94.7)
19.1% (87.0)
1.4% (92.2)
9.6% (81.0)
10.7% (86.5)
1.6%
2008
Blue Jays
61.0% (94.8)
17.9% (87.9)
0.1% (91.5)
10.3% (81.6)
10.7% (86.9)
1.1%
2011
Blue Jays
64.4% (93.0)
20.5% (86.9)
5.9% (80.2)
9.3% (86.5)
Total
- - -
61.3% (94.4)
18.2% (86.9)
0.7% (92.2)
9.4% (80.3)
10.1% (86.0)
0.3% (00.0)
2.9%
PITCHf/x Pitch Type
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
FA%
FT%
FC%
FS%
FO%
SI%
SL%
CU%
KC%
EP%
CH%
SC%
KN%
UN%
2007
Blue Jays
63.1 %
0.2 %
20.3 %
8.6 %
7.0 %
2008
Blue Jays
63.7 %
0.9 %
18.0 %
9.3 %
7.6 %
2011
Blue Jays
63.0 %
2.1 %
21.0 %
5.9 %
8.0 %
Total
- - -
63.4 %
0.2 %
0.5 %
19.5 %
8.6 %
7.4 %
PITCHf/x Pitch Velocity
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
vFA
vFT
vFC
vFS
vFO
vSI
vSL
vCU
vKC
vEP
vCH
vSC
vKN
2007
Blue Jays
94.7
87.5
87.4
81.6
84.8
2008
Blue Jays
94.3
88.3
87.6
81.2
85.2
2011
Blue Jays
92.9
90.2
86.6
81.4
86.1
Total
- - -
94.4
90.2
88.1
87.4
81.4
85.1
Pitch Values
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
wFB
wSL
wCT
wCB
wCH
wSF
wKN
wFB/C
wSL/C
wCT/C
wCB/C
wCH/C
wSF/C
wKN/C
2005
Blue Jays
-4.3
0.6
0.0
-2.1
0.6
1.3
-1.03
0.60
-3.41
-2.87
1.14
7.93
2006
Blue Jays
-10.1
0.3
0.7
-0.4
-2.75
0.35
2.13
-0.99
2007
Blue Jays
-2.9
13.5
-0.5
4.4
6.8
-0.18
2.67
-1.42
1.73
2.39
2008
Blue Jays
6.3
-3.4
0.0
-1.9
-1.1
0.58
-1.07
0.11
-1.03
-0.59
2011
Blue Jays
-2.1
-0.9
-0.4
-0.4
-0.87
-1.22
-1.83
-1.18
Total
- - -
-13.1
10.1
-0.6
0.7
5.5
1.3
-0.36
0.92
-1.40
0.13
0.90
7.93
PITCHf/x Pitch Values
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
wFA
wFT
wFC
wFS
wFO
wSI
wSL
wCU
wKC
wEP
wCH
wSC
wKN
2007
Blue Jays
-2.1
-0.1
7.5
3.3
-3.6
2008
Blue Jays
-0.7
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
1.4
2011
Blue Jays
-2.2
0.3
-0.6
-0.8
-0.5
Total
- - -
-5.1
0.3
-0.2
5.9
0.5
-2.7
PITCHf/x Pitch Values / 100
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
wFA/C
wFT/C
wFC/C
wFS/C
wFO/C
wSI/C
wSL/C
wCU/C
wKC/C
wEP/C
wCH/C
wSC/C
wKN/C
2007
Blue Jays
-0.19
-3.48
2.09
2.15
-2.87
2008
Blue Jays
-0.08
-0.21
-0.41
-1.52
1.28
2011
Blue Jays
-0.94
3.37
-0.72
-3.44
-1.62
Total
- - -
-0.23
3.37
-1.02
0.85
0.17
-1.03
Plate Discipline
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
|
Averages
Season
Team
O-Swing%
Z-Swing%
Swing%
O-Contact%
Z-Contact%
Contact%
Zone%
F-Strike%
SwStr%
2005
Blue Jays
17.7 %
65.0 %
41.6 %
45.0 %
88.9 %
79.7 %
50.5 %
54.2 %
8.0 %
2005
Average
20.3 %
68.0 %
46.0 %
51.8 %
88.3 %
80.8 %
53.8 %
59.1 %
8.7 %
2006
Blue Jays
22.1 %
67.8 %
41.9 %
57.4 %
90.0 %
80.3 %
43.4 %
44.1 %
8.3 %
2006
Average
23.5 %
66.6 %
46.1 %
57.4 %
88.5 %
81.0 %
52.6 %
58.8 %
8.5 %
2007
Blue Jays
27.1 %
67.0 %
46.0 %
51.7 %
87.2 %
76.1 %
47.2 %
56.9 %
10.7 %
2007
Average
25.0 %
66.6 %
45.9 %
60.8 %
88.2 %
80.8 %
50.3 %
58.7 %
8.6 %
2008
Blue Jays
26.0 %
68.3 %
47.1 %
58.6 %
86.5 %
78.7 %
49.8 %
59.3 %
9.8 %
2008
Average
25.4 %
65.4 %
45.9 %
61.7 %
87.9 %
80.8 %
51.1 %
58.6 %
8.6 %
2011
Blue Jays
29.9 %
63.4 %
42.9 %
61.2 %
92.2 %
79.0 %
38.8 %
51.0 %
8.5 %
2011
Average
30.6 %
65.0 %
46.2 %
68.1 %
87.9 %
80.7 %
45.3 %
59.4 %
8.6 %
Total
- - -
25.5 %
67.1 %
45.2 %
54.4 %
87.6 %
77.8 %
47.5 %
55.8 %
9.8 %
PITCHf/x Plate Discipline
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
|
Averages
Season
Team
O-Swing%
Z-Swing%
Swing%
O-Contact%
Z-Contact%
Contact%
Zone%
Pace
2007
Blue Jays
30.9 %
63.2 %
45.6 %
59.3 %
86.1 %
76.3 %
45.6 %
22.8
2007
Average
28.9 %
62.3 %
45.4 %
66.4 %
87.6 %
80.8 %
49.6 %
21.5
2008
Blue Jays
31.5 %
61.9 %
46.2 %
65.8 %
86.3 %
79.1 %
48.3 %
23.8
2008
Average
28.0 %
62.5 %
45.3 %
65.9 %
88.0 %
81.2 %
50.3 %
21.6
2011
Blue Jays
25.9 %
62.2 %
41.8 %
58.2 %
90.2 %
79.0 %
43.6 %
22.8
2011
Average
28.9 %
62.1 %
45.6 %
64.7 %
88.0 %
80.6 %
50.1 %
21.6
Total
- - -
30.6 %
62.6 %
45.4 %
61.8 %
86.6 %
77.7 %
46.4 %
23.2
Fielding
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
Pos
G
GS
Inn
PO
A
E
FE
TE
DP
DPS
DPT
DPF
Scp
SB
CS
PB
WP
FP
TZ
2005
Blue Jays
P
13
7
45.1
2
5
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
7
.875
2006
Blue Jays
P
16
3
27.1
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1.000
2007
Blue Jays
P
27
27
169.2
17
29
4
2
2
2
1
0
1
29
.920
2008
Blue Jays
P
19
19
111.1
11
11
3
0
3
4
3
0
1
12
.880
2011
Blue Jays
P
5
4
21.0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
1.000
Total
- - -
P
80
60
374.2
35
46
8
2
6
6
4
0
2
55
.910
Advanced Fielding
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
Pos
Inn
rSB
rGDP
rARM
rGFP
rPM
DRS
BIZ
Plays
RZR
OOZ
CPP
RPP
TZL
FSR
ARM
DPR
RngR
ErrR
UZR
UZR/150
2005
Blue Jays
P
45.1
0
0
0
-1
2006
Blue Jays
P
27.1
0
0
-1
-1
2007
Blue Jays
P
169.2
-4
0
4
1
2008
Blue Jays
P
111.1
-1
0
-1
-2
2011
Blue Jays
P
21.0
-1
0
0
-1
Total
- - -
P
374.2
-6
0
2
-4
Value
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
RA9-Wins
BIP-Wins
LOB-Wins
FDP-Wins
RAR
WAR
Dollars
Salary
2005
Blue Jays
-0.3
-0.1
-0.4
-0.5
1.1
0.1
$0.4
2006
Blue Jays
-0.8
-0.4
-0.3
-0.7
-0.5
0.0
($0.2)
2007
Blue Jays
3.3
1.3
-1.5
-0.2
35.5
3.5
$14.5
2008
Blue Jays
1.3
-0.4
-0.6
-1.0
22.2
2.2
$10.1
$0.4
2011
Blue Jays
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-1.0
-0.1
($0.4)
Total
- - -
3.3
0.5
-2.9
-2.5
57.4
5.8
$24.4
$0.4
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