2014 Top 10 Prospects: Chicago Cubs

The system is strong although it’s somewhat top heavy. The Top 10 list starts to taper offer after No. 8 but I’d consider the overall depth to be above average. The Cubs feature one of the most enviable one-through-four group of prospects in the game.

 

#1 Javier Baez | 70/AA (SS)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
20 577 146 34 37 40 147 20 .282 .341 .578 .409

The Year in Review: Baez displayed unreal power in 2013 with 37 combined home runs between High-A and Double-A. On top of that, he stole 20 bases in 24 attempts. On the down side, he walked just 40 times with 147 strikeouts in 130 games.

The Scouting Report: As you might guess, Baez’s calling card is his plus power generated by lightning quick bat speed. He doesn’t handle breaking balls overly well, though, and he’s too aggressive. He needs to learn to work the count better if he’s going to consistently hit for average as a big leaguer. Despite his 20 steals, Baez is just an average base runner. Defensively, the Puerto Rico native has a plus arm with solid range but he makes youthful mistakes and rushes too much.

The Year Ahead: Baez, 21, should open the 2014 season in Triple-A unless he falls flat on his face in spring training. He could really make things interesting in the second half of the year in Chicago, especially if fellow middle infield prospect Arismendy Alcantara is also ready for the The Show.

The Career Outlook: The young infielder has all the ingredients necessary to be an all-star for the Cubs, regardless of where he ends up — shortstop, third base or even the outfield.

 

#2 Kris Bryant | 70/A+ (3B)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 238 71 22 15 25 58 4 .346 .416 .702 .494

The Year in Review: Bryant was selected second overall in the 2013 draft (and I personally considered him the top talent). He was a busy man after turning pro and played at three levels during the regular season, topping out in High-A ball. In total, he hit .339 with nine home runs and a 1.078 OPS in 36 games. He also appeared in the Arizona Fall League where he hit .364 with another six homers in 20 games.

The Scouting Report: The Las Vegas native has plus power potential and he showed it off during his brief pro debut in 2013. He’ll have to keep his strikeouts at bay if he’s going to continue to hit for a high average as a pro but he has good plate coverage and improving pitch recognition. Bryant’s defence at third base needs more work than his offence, although he should develop into an average third baseman, at worst. He has a strong arm, decent range and improving actions.

The Year Ahead: If Bryant has a strong spring, that along with his outstanding AFL performance, could convince the Cubs to let him open the 2014 season in Double-A. Even if he starts back in High-A ball, though, Bryant should be at Double-A by June. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that the third baseman could reach the Majors by year’s end.

The Career Outlook: Like Baez, Bryant projects to develop into a power-hitting, all-star-caliber infielder on the left side of the infield.

 

#3 Albert Almora | 65/A+ (OF)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
19 351 105 23 4 21 39 4 .324 .369 .469 .381

The Year in Review: Almora’s season was shortened by injury and he appeared in just 61 games during the regular season. He still managed to post an .842 OPS with a batting average of more than .300. He made up for lost development time with a trip to the Arizona Fall League where he once again hit more than .300 and showed a solid approach at the plate while playing stellar defence.

The Scouting Report: The sixth overall selection from the 2012 draft, Almora’s best tool is his center-field defence based on outstanding range, instincts and plus arm strength. At the plate, he has a chance to hit for a high average because he uses the whole field and makes outstanding contact. Almora’s power potential is average at best. He’s not a base stealing threat but is an average runner.

The Year Ahead: A healthy Almora should move up to High-A ball. The key is for him to stay healthy for a full season but, if he continues to hit well, he might taste some Double-A action before the end of the season.

The Career Outlook: Almora could probably get to the Majors on the quality of his outfield glove alone but he’s also turning into a solid hitter, which could make him a future all-star.

 

#4 Jorge Soler | 60/A+ (OF)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 326 82 19 9 26 59 5 .278 .334 .441 .354

The Year in Review: Soler had an eventful year with two separate suspensions and a broken leg. He showed flashes of brilliance with the bat in 2013 but needs to be more consistent. After playing just 55 games during the regular season, the Cuba native appeared in another 20 games in the Arizona Fall League with pedestrian results.

The Scouting Report: Signed out of Cuba the same year as Yasiel Puig, Soler’s game needs further refinement but he could be well worth the wait. The real key for the young outfielder is to keep his head in the game and remain focused. He has plus power potential and makes good contact but he gets too aggressive at times and needs to further refine his pitch recognition. Defensively, he has a plus arm and average skills for right field.

The Year Ahead: Soler could return to High-A ball to get his feet wet in 2014 but expect him to spend the bulk of the year in Double-A, if healthy. The new-found millionaire is still young and learning a new culture so he’s expected to suffer through some rough patches.

The Career Outlook: It sounds like a broken record but, like the three players ahead of him, Soler has all-star potential if he can add the necessary polish and maturity.

 

#5 Arismendy Alcantara | 60/AA (2B/SS)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 571 134 36 15 62 125 31 .271 .352 .451 .365

The Year in Review: Alcantara’s value continued to climb in 2013 thanks to an excellent season in Double-A that saw him steal more than 30 bases with 55 extra base hits and an OPS above .800. He also flashed above-average defensive skills.

The Scouting Report: The Cubs have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to young infielders and Alcantara, 22, appears determined to make the front office face some tough decisions. He’s just 5-10 but he generates good pop thanks to solid bat speed and strong wrists/forearms. The switch-hitter strikes out a lot but offsets that with a solid walk rate. He has above-average speed and could steal 20-30 bases in a big league season. Defensively, he could handle shortstop in the Majors thanks to good range and a plus arm but he could perhaps be a plus-plus defender at second base.

The Year Ahead: Alcantara will likely open the 2014 season in Triple-A and is currently stuck behind Starlin Castro and Javier Baez at shortstop. Both third base and second base project to be manned by fringe-average regulars so one or both could provide an opportunity for the young Dominican during the upcoming year.

The Career Outlook: He has a chance to be a strong contributor on both offence and defence and Alcantara could eventually help send the under-performing Castro packing.

 

#6 Pierce Johnson | 55/A+ (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
22 23 21 118.1 109 5 9.43 3.27 2.74 2.97

The Year in Review: The 43rd overall pick in the 2012 draft, Johnson enjoyed his first full season in pro ball by splitting the year between both A-ball levels. In total, he struck out 124 batters in 118.1 innings and allowed just five balls to leave the yard.

The Scouting Report: The 22-year-old hurler has a four-pitch repertoire that includes a low-90s fastball that can touch the mid-90s, solid curveball, slider and developing changeup. His control is solid but he still needs to polish his command — especially with the inside fastball to left-handed hitters. His delivery is solid and he has a good pitcher’s frame so he be able to provide a healthy number of innings.

The Year Ahead: After pitching just 48.2 innings in High-A ball in 2013, Johnson may head back to that level to open the ’14 season. He should, though, spend the majority of the season pitching in Double-A ball. Expect him to see big league action in 2015.

The Career Outlook: Johnson has the ceiling of a No. 3 starter.

 

#7 C.J. Edwards | 55/A+ (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
21 24 24 116.1 76 1 11.99 3.17 1.86 1.78

The Year in Review: Edwards had an excellent season between two A-ball affiliates. His combined ERA sat at 1.86 and he allowed just 76 hits in 116.1 innings. As well, he overpowered A-ball hitters with 155 strikeouts and an above-average ground-ball rate. He allowed just one home run.

The Scouting Report: A former 48th-round draft pick of the Rangers, Edwards has made good on his opportunities in a relatively short period of time. His jaw-dropping numbers had a lot of people buzzing about him in 2013 but there are concerns around his durability thanks to a slender frame that doesn’t offer much room, if any, for projection. He has a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a promising curveball but his changeup needs further refinement. Deception in his delivery helps his stuff play up.

The Year Ahead: Edwards likely won’t need much time in High-A ball in 2014 and should spend much of the season getting challenged by more advanced Double-A hitters.

The Career Outlook: Edwards, 22, has the ceiling of a No. 3 starter if he can show enough durability to stick in the starting rotation. If not, he could become an intriguing high-leverage reliever for the Cubs.

 

#8 Dan Vogelbach | 55/A+ (1B/DH)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
20 566 137 23 19 73 89 5 .284 .375 .449 .377

The Year in Review: The Florida native spent his first full pro season in Low-A ball but also received a late-season promotion (17 games) to High-A ball. In total, Vogelbach slugged 17 home runs and walked 73 times compared to 89 strikeouts in 131 games.

The Scouting Report: Vogelbach, 21, has left-handed power to all fields and he could eventually hit 25+ home runs per season for the Cubs. He comes to the plate with an idea, which helps him produce strong on-base percentages and keeps the strikeouts to respectable levels. He works hard and takes pride in his defence at first base and should become an average fielder, although he’ll need to rely on positioning to compensate for a lack of range.

The Year Ahead: Vogelbach is relatively advanced for his age so he probably won’t need a full season at High-A ball in 2014. He’ll likely ascend to Double-A in the second half of the year and might be ready for a taste of big league action in 2015.

The Career Outlook: The young hitter should be ready to assume the Cubs’ starting first base gig in late 2015 or early 2016 — assuming he can wrestle the starting gig away from the enigmatic Anthony Rizzo. Vogelbach should develop into an above-average first baseman albeit it with a shortened prime due to his body type.

 

#9 Arodys Vizcaino | 55/INJ (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
20 17.1 8.83 4.67 35.4 % 4.67 3.54 4.46 -0.1 0.1

The Year in Review: Vizcaino missed a second straight full season while dealing with further elbow injuries. The health issues and missed development time certainly cast doubt over his future but the talent is undeniable.

The Scouting Report: Vizcaino, 23, has a mid-to-upper-90s fastball with a potentially-plus curveball. His changeup was below average prior to the injury and the missed time may have dealt a deathblow to the offering. A shift to the bullpen may be in the cards for this former starter, which would help accelerate his time table and also solve the durability issues.

The Year Ahead: All signs point to a healthy Vizcaino being ready to pitch competitively in April. How he looks in the spring, though, will likely determine if he opens the year in full-season ball or is held back for additional extended spring training. If he can avoid the DL, Vizcaino may finally suit up for the big league Cubs in 2014.

The Career Outlook: Again, it all comes down to health. If he can remain relatively healthy, Vizcaino could become a dominating, high-leverage reliever on the basis of his power fastball and curveball.

 

#10 Kyle Hendricks | 50/AAA (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
23 27 27 166.1 142 5 6.93 1.84 2.00 2.77

The Year in Review: Obtained in the 2012 Ryan Dempster deal with Texas, Hendricks’ numbers during his first full season with the Cubs were eye-popping at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels. In total, he produced a 2.00 ERA in 166.1 innings and opposing hitters struggled to hit the ball into the air against him.

The Scouting Report: Hendricks succeeds by creating a good downward plane on his offerings, which creates well-above-average ground-ball rates. That helps to compensate for the low strikeout rates that are due to the the lack of a consistent out-pitch. He possesses above-average control for his age and solid command.

The Year Ahead: The Dartmouth alum should open the 2013 season in Triple-A but could be one of the first young hurlers promoted from the minors.

The Career Outlook: Hendricks is a cerebral pitcher that projects to develop into an innings-eating No. 4 starter but he could pitch at the level of a No. 3 for a few seasons.

The Next Five:

11. Jeimer Candelario, 3B: I’m not as big on Candelario as some and see a potentially average, but raw, third baseman with a questionable body and questionable effort on the field. That causes me concern over just how likely he is to realize his full potential. On the plus side, he flashes above-average raw power from both sides of the plate and does a nice job of working the count and keeping his strikeouts contained.

12. Christian Villanueva, 3B: Villanueva’s value is significantly tied to his defensive skills, which are well-above-average for the hot corner. At the plate, though, his approach leaves something to be desired due to his aggressive nature — which led to low walk rates and high strikeout rates. Villanueva showed some pop in 2013 with 41 doubles and 19 home runs at the Double-A level.

13. Duane Underwood, RHP: A 2012 second round draft pick, Underwood spend a second season in short-season ball in 2013 while working on his secondary offerings. He throws in the low 90s and generates an above-average number of ground balls but he needs to polish his other offerings if he’s going to see his strikeout rate jump to more reasonable levels.

14. Eloy Jimenez, OF: The 17-year-old top 2013 international signee is already 6-4 and 200 lbs. He’s understandably raw and needs to shorten his stroke to produce a more consistent attack at the plate. He has raw power potential but his swing is currently gear more towards the line drive. Defensively, he should settle in to right field thanks to his strong arm.

15. Neil Ramirez, RHP: Dealt to the Cubs from the Rangers in 2013, Ramirez has spent his pro career in the starting rotation but should settle into the Majors as a reliever. He lacks a reliable third offering to go with his low-to-mid-90s fastball and above-average curveball. The right-hander has dealt with shoulder injuries and health concerns almost prevented him from being included in last year’s trade.



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Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects, depth charts and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Bobby A
Guest
2 years 4 months ago

Light at the end of the tunnel

Royals Fans
Guest
Royals Fans
2 years 4 months ago

It might be further away than you think…

ColKiner
Guest
ColKiner
2 years 4 months ago

Or could be the on-coming train

Bill
Guest
Bill
2 years 4 months ago

What about 3B Mike Olt?
Isn’t he a top 10 prospect?
Thanks.

Marc Hulet
Guest
2 years 4 months ago

Partially, it speaks to the depth in the system but I also have serious concerns over his hit tool.

jdbolick
Member
Member
2 years 4 months ago

No. His z-contact% has always been poor for a prospect and got exposed as he reached higher levels, which I said it would last year when he was still being hyped. A power 3B bat off the bench or short-side platoon still has value, though, and he could always post one of those lucky BABIP-fueled seasons at some point.

I still hold out hope for Matt Szczur, but concede that it will be difficult since his hit tool has developed as much as hoped and he’s competing with Almora for the same future spot.

MikeS
Guest
MikeS
2 years 4 months ago

Javier Baez must be truly special if he is destined to be an all star infielder even in the outfield.

Roger
Guest
Roger
2 years 4 months ago

If Baez can be an all star infielder even in the outfield, that would be impressive indeed. I don’t think he has that kind of range unless he plays really shallow.

Josh
Guest
Josh
2 years 4 months ago

Hi Marc, based on your analysis of the system, are there any potential sleepers out there that you might project to break into the top tier over the next year? Thanks.

Bruce
Guest
Bruce
2 years 4 months ago

You forgot Brett Jackson ahead of Baez

ken
Guest
ken
2 years 4 months ago

I hear Elroy Jimenez’s dog is named Astro.

Rick
Guest
Rick
2 years 4 months ago

“He doesn’t handle breaking balls overly, well, though…”

So you’re saying he doesn’t handle breaking balls “excessively” well…Is there such a thing as handling breaking balls excessively well?

Fangraphs: editing is important.

BB
Guest
BB
2 years 4 months ago

Yeah, I noticed a number of copy errors such as missing words, bad punctuation, etc. I usually don’t say anything, but the number of mistakes made this difficult to read. It seems as if this was rushed.

Rick
Guest
Rick
2 years 4 months ago

Who is Elroy Jimenez?

Why wasn’t this edited?

truth
Guest
truth
2 years 4 months ago

“Elroy” isn’t anyone. “Eloy” was one of the Cubs big-name international signees this year.

Christine Siims
Guest
Christine Siims
2 years 1 month ago

Elroy is George Jetson’s son

Rick
Guest
Rick
2 years 4 months ago

Marc Hulet– how many of these players did you evaluate in person, and on average, how many times would you say you saw each of them?

Marc Hulet
Guest
2 years 4 months ago

Depends on the player. I’ve seen roughly 75% of them in person or video and spoken to people in the game about the rest. Some players I’ve seen once, others up to three times. That’s why I also talk to evaluators.

Eddie
Guest
Eddie
2 years 4 months ago

It’s “Eloy” Jimenez.

LaLoosh
Guest
2 years 4 months ago

who cares…?

coby76
Guest
coby76
2 years 4 months ago

Any cubs prospects without plate discipline problem?

Frank
Guest
Frank
2 years 4 months ago

Yea, it’s a bit worrisome to see that many prospects tied to k rate issues.

Otter
Guest
Otter
2 years 4 months ago

Agree, shouldn’t we be a little more worried/careful with guys with a 25% strike out rate in the minors? This is the Cubs we’re talking about after all.

Shauncore
Member
Shauncore
2 years 4 months ago

Just Vogelbach really

Dan
Guest
Dan
2 years 4 months ago

Actually Baez has a huge problem with Ks. Vogelbach is a well-rounded hitter who can manage a .280 BA or above.

Shauncore
Member
Shauncore
2 years 4 months ago

OP was asking if anyone in the cubs org DOESN’T have plate discipline problems. Vogelbach doesn’t. Baez has either over agression problem or contact problems or the two could be tied

dave23
Guest
2 years 4 months ago

Did you miss Vogelbach?

Vlad the Impaler
Guest
Vlad the Impaler
2 years 4 months ago

No, but apparently you did at #8.

dave23
Guest
2 years 4 months ago

Actually, I was responding to the previous post, but thanks for your input…

Jim in Maine
Guest
Jim in Maine
2 years 4 months ago

I am not a Cub fan but I do follow baseball … surprised 2012 draftee Paul Blackburn is not among the top 15 … was he considered? This system is heavy on good position player prospects and short on quality pitching prospects.

Mike Z
Guest
Mike Z
2 years 4 months ago

Where does the other highly touted international signee Gleybar Torres rank?

joe
Guest
joe
2 years 4 months ago

What is defence and offence?

Vlad the Impaler
Guest
Vlad the Impaler
2 years 4 months ago

The end product of having a Canadian drenched in maple syrup and eating poutine doing the writeups.

whooshies
Guest
whooshies
2 years 4 months ago

Colloquial spelling – You sound silly trying to correct someone who is not incorrect.

E-Dub
Guest
E-Dub
2 years 4 months ago

The usual FG pedanticism is especially OOTO in this comment thread, and it’s even more grating when the urge results in that sort of gaffe from ignorance of Marc’s (dude can’t spell his own name! hoho) Canadian heritage.

Vlad the Impaler
Guest
Vlad the Impaler
2 years 4 months ago

Vogelbach will never play 1B for the Cubs. He is a DH-in-training.

Brian Baker
Member
Brian Baker
2 years 4 months ago

Vizcaino was very good for the Braves in 2011. If he ever returns to full strength he’ll make a great closer.

Charlie
Member
Charlie
2 years 4 months ago

There’s a misconception Baez is overly-aggressive. It’s easy to make this assumption when watching him, but it’s not true. Baez isn’t overly-aggressive. In AA, his swinging strike % was 47.6%, which relative to his peers, is only 0.9% above league average. He’s not swinging at everything out of the pitcher’s hand. Instead, he makes too little contact. This has lead to his high strikeout percentage. He’s not as aggressive as the common assumption says he is, rather, he needs to make more contact to succeed at the MLB level.

Sam
Guest
Sam
2 years 4 months ago

That’s a great point when analyzing K-rate. What is leading to those marks?

For example, Jose Altuve is very aggressive at the plate, swings alot. But his K rate is managed downward by an extreme ability to make contact in the zone.

For the Baez, it is truly troubling to see him struggling to make consistent contact in the minors even when he is being league average selective. It harder to improve physical tools like that than to adjust ones metal approach at the plate.

Good point!!

Willis
Guest
Willis
2 years 4 months ago

Baez should continue to improve his skill-set as a player. A player can be successful at the MLB level with making below average contact as long as limited contact goes far (Stanton). However, these types of players are a rarity (contact % < 70). Baez has to make more contact or he won't make it. Making 66% contact in AA won't cut it.

Dirck
Guest
Dirck
2 years 4 months ago

It seems like Castro to the Mets for one of their young pitchers could be a deal which helps both clubs .

LaLoosh
Guest
2 years 4 months ago

If only the Mets would be willing to part with an arm.

JC
Guest
JC
2 years 4 months ago

Thanks for the info, but for the love of God can you guys do a quick spell check before publishing?

E-Dub
Guest
E-Dub
2 years 4 months ago

The edited pieces are behind the paywall.

Edwin
Guest
Edwin
2 years 4 months ago

Marc,

Why so much higher on Hendricks? Most other scouting reports I’ve read seem to consider him to be an inning eating 5th starter at best, but more likely a swingman/long reliever due to his below average stuff. Can he overcome his weak fastball?

Dan
Guest
Dan
2 years 4 months ago

Nice list, Marc! Always tough to do these. Quick notes. In my opinion Olt is at least top-15. Interesting you put Eloy in there but I like it. Finally, after recently writing my own article on Cubs prospects for cubsprospectwatch.blogspot.com I was alerted by a reader that the Cubs have already stated Bryant will start at Double-A, Baez at Triple-A, and Alcantara at Triple-A as well. Just thought I’d mention it. Nice read!

subtle
Guest
subtle
2 years 4 months ago

Is it possible that Bryant is just in see-ball-hit-ball mode because he hasn’t really been challenged or needed to make adjustments yet?

whooshies
Guest
whooshies
2 years 4 months ago

It seems this way as he started working counts WAY more about halfway through the AFL season. It seemed to me that the Cubs said, “alright we know you’ve got power, try to show us a better approach”. At the levels he’s seen, he can top 1.000 OPS either way. I would like to see Baez try something similar.

Analyst
Guest
Analyst
2 years 4 months ago

So what is the % that S. Castro gets traded during the season?

Christian
Guest
Christian
2 years 4 months ago

What do you make of Dillon Maples at this point?

skmd
Guest
skmd
2 years 4 months ago

many other evaluators rank the Cubs system as top-5 in baseball. You state overall depth is only “above average.” Where would you rank the system among the 30 teams?

TK
Guest
TK
2 years 4 months ago

Is there a calender or time frame where we can expect the remaing teams 2014 top 10 prospect rankings?

Brian McManus
Guest
Brian McManus
2 years 3 months ago

Matt Szcur off radar?????

jerry60555
Member
jerry60555
2 years 2 months ago

????

Christine Siims
Guest
Christine Siims
2 years 1 month ago

Castro to Baez to Rizzo. Sounds good.

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