Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Dylan Cease | 52.1 | 3 | 1 | 34.6% | 9.7% | 2.41 | 1.86 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 22.7 | 38.0 | 180.1 | 12 | 7 | 30.7% | 9.4% | 3.09 | 2.88 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 63.3 | 95.7 |
| 2 | Tarik Skubal | 43.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.1% | 3.6% | 2.70 | 2.11 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 16.2 | 27.7 | 137.1 | 10 | 5 | 29.4% | 4.6% | 2.69 | 2.41 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 53.5 | 85.3 |
| 3 | Cam Schlittler | 53.1 | 5 | 1 | 29.2% | 4.5% | 1.35 | 1.64 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 29.6 | 46.5 | 149.1 | 12 | 6 | 26.2% | 7.0% | 2.83 | 2.90 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 55.5 | 82.0 |
| 4 | José Soriano | 54.1 | 6 | 2 | 28.4% | 9.3% | 1.66 | 3.16 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 29.3 | 37.3 | 184.1 | 14 | 10 | 24.7% | 10.0% | 3.12 | 3.50 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 61.2 | 81.7 |
| 5 | Max Fried | 61.2 | 4 | 3 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 3.21 | 2.72 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 17.8 | 30.0 | 183.2 | 13 | 8 | 21.7% | 7.5% | 3.28 | 3.18 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 54.0 | 81.0 |
| 6 | Jacob deGrom | 44.2 | 3 | 2 | 32.8% | 4.6% | 2.62 | 2.84 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 18.0 | 26.3 | 166.2 | 11 | 8 | 29.7% | 5.4% | 3.19 | 3.18 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 55.1 | 79.6 |
| 7 | George Kirby | 57.0 | 5 | 2 | 20.3% | 6.2% | 2.84 | 3.25 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 20.1 | 28.0 | 187.0 | 14 | 9 | 22.2% | 5.4% | 3.37 | 3.35 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 54.4 | 78.3 |
| 8 | Shane McClanahan | 39.2 | 4 | 2 | 25.8% | 9.4% | 2.27 | 2.50 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 17.9 | 26.7 | 153.2 | 12 | 8 | 26.3% | 8.1% | 3.05 | 3.12 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 53.3 | 76.9 |
| 9 | Bryan Woo | 53.0 | 3 | 2 | 22.3% | 4.7% | 3.91 | 3.48 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 11.2 | 17.2 | 187.0 | 12 | 9 | 23.8% | 5.2% | 3.66 | 3.56 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 47.5 | 67.0 |
| 10 | Parker Messick | 53.2 | 5 | 1 | 28.3% | 6.8% | 2.35 | 2.99 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 23.6 | 32.6 | 162.2 | 11 | 7 | 24.6% | 7.6% | 3.32 | 3.61 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 48.7 | 64.8 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Dylan Cease | 52.1 | 3 | 1 | 34.6% | 9.7% | 2.41 | 1.86 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 22.7 | 38.0 | 180.1 | 12 | 7 | 30.7% | 9.4% | 3.09 | 2.88 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 63.3 | 95.7 |
| 2 | Tarik Skubal | 43.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.1% | 3.6% | 2.70 | 2.11 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 16.2 | 27.7 | 137.1 | 10 | 5 | 29.4% | 4.6% | 2.69 | 2.41 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 53.5 | 85.3 |
| 3 | Cam Schlittler | 53.1 | 5 | 1 | 29.2% | 4.5% | 1.35 | 1.64 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 29.6 | 46.5 | 149.1 | 12 | 6 | 26.2% | 7.0% | 2.83 | 2.90 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 55.5 | 82.0 |
| 4 | José Soriano | 54.1 | 6 | 2 | 28.4% | 9.3% | 1.66 | 3.16 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 29.3 | 37.3 | 184.1 | 14 | 10 | 24.7% | 10.0% | 3.12 | 3.50 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 61.2 | 81.7 |
| 5 | Max Fried | 61.2 | 4 | 3 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 3.21 | 2.72 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 17.8 | 30.0 | 183.2 | 13 | 8 | 21.7% | 7.5% | 3.28 | 3.18 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 54.0 | 81.0 |
| 6 | Jacob deGrom | 44.2 | 3 | 2 | 32.8% | 4.6% | 2.62 | 2.84 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 18.0 | 26.3 | 166.2 | 11 | 8 | 29.7% | 5.4% | 3.19 | 3.18 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 55.1 | 79.6 |
| 7 | George Kirby | 57.0 | 5 | 2 | 20.3% | 6.2% | 2.84 | 3.25 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 20.1 | 28.0 | 187.0 | 14 | 9 | 22.2% | 5.4% | 3.37 | 3.35 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 54.4 | 78.3 |
| 8 | Shane McClanahan | 39.2 | 4 | 2 | 25.8% | 9.4% | 2.27 | 2.50 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 17.9 | 26.7 | 153.2 | 12 | 8 | 26.3% | 8.1% | 3.05 | 3.12 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 53.3 | 76.9 |
| 9 | Bryan Woo | 53.0 | 3 | 2 | 22.3% | 4.7% | 3.91 | 3.48 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 11.2 | 17.2 | 187.0 | 12 | 9 | 23.8% | 5.2% | 3.66 | 3.56 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 47.5 | 67.0 |
| 10 | Parker Messick | 53.2 | 5 | 1 | 28.3% | 6.8% | 2.35 | 2.99 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 23.6 | 32.6 | 162.2 | 11 | 7 | 24.6% | 7.6% | 3.32 | 3.61 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 48.7 | 64.8 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Paul Skenes | 50.0 | 6 | 2 | 30.3% | 3.8% | 1.98 | 2.51 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 25.6 | 36.7 | 187.0 | 16 | 8 | 29.5% | 5.7% | 2.60 | 2.72 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 77.3 | 114.3 |
| 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | 55.1 | 4 | 2 | 28.4% | 5.9% | 2.11 | 2.20 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 25.4 | 39.5 | 202.1 | 14 | 8 | 25.7% | 6.1% | 2.80 | 2.81 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 73.8 | 111.8 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 49.0 | 6 | 2 | 29.3% | 6.3% | 2.20 | 3.45 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 24.1 | 29.8 | 177.0 | 15 | 8 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 2.95 | 3.25 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 66.5 | 91.1 |
| 4 | Jacob Misiorowski | 51.0 | 3 | 2 | 39.6% | 8.4% | 2.12 | 2.28 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 24.5 | 37.1 | 170.0 | 11 | 8 | 32.9% | 9.9% | 3.12 | 3.19 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 60.0 | 84.7 |
| 5 | Shohei Ohtani | 44.0 | 3 | 2 | 29.2% | 6.4% | 0.82 | 2.38 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 26.0 | 36.4 | 140.0 | 10 | 6 | 29.2% | 7.7% | 2.51 | 3.11 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 57.4 | 79.0 |
| 6 | Nolan McLean | 45.1 | 1 | 2 | 32.6% | 6.9% | 2.78 | 2.38 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 15.4 | 26.1 | 168.1 | 9 | 8 | 26.9% | 8.5% | 3.37 | 3.30 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 48.9 | 71.3 |
| 7 | Zack Wheeler | 24.2 | 2 | 0 | 23.2% | 6.3% | 2.55 | 2.70 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 9.5 | 14.5 | 153.2 | 11 | 6 | 25.6% | 6.6% | 3.22 | 3.26 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 48.8 | 70.0 |
| 8 | Shota Imanaga | 54.1 | 4 | 3 | 28.0% | 6.2% | 2.32 | 2.85 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 23.1 | 33.0 | 178.1 | 12 | 9 | 24.6% | 5.8% | 3.38 | 3.65 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 52.0 | 68.9 |
| 9 | Logan Webb | 48.0 | 2 | 4 | 20.2% | 7.2% | 5.06 | 3.56 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 3.2 | 8.2 | 180.0 | 11 | 11 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 3.75 | 3.21 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 42.5 | 68.2 |
| 10 | Braxton Ashcraft | 48.2 | 2 | 2 | 26.7% | 7.3% | 2.77 | 3.00 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 16.4 | 24.5 | 166.2 | 9 | 8 | 23.4% | 7.4% | 3.46 | 3.48 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 44.4 | 63.4 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Paul Skenes | 50.0 | 6 | 2 | 30.3% | 3.8% | 1.98 | 2.51 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 25.6 | 36.7 | 187.0 | 16 | 8 | 29.5% | 5.7% | 2.60 | 2.72 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 77.3 | 114.3 |
| 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | 55.1 | 4 | 2 | 28.4% | 5.9% | 2.11 | 2.20 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 25.4 | 39.5 | 202.1 | 14 | 8 | 25.7% | 6.1% | 2.80 | 2.81 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 73.8 | 111.8 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 49.0 | 6 | 2 | 29.3% | 6.3% | 2.20 | 3.45 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 24.1 | 29.8 | 177.0 | 15 | 8 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 2.95 | 3.25 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 66.5 | 91.1 |
| 4 | Jacob Misiorowski | 51.0 | 3 | 2 | 39.6% | 8.4% | 2.12 | 2.28 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 24.5 | 37.1 | 170.0 | 11 | 8 | 32.9% | 9.9% | 3.12 | 3.19 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 60.0 | 84.7 |
| 5 | Shohei Ohtani | 44.0 | 3 | 2 | 29.2% | 6.4% | 0.82 | 2.38 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 26.0 | 36.4 | 140.0 | 10 | 6 | 29.2% | 7.7% | 2.51 | 3.11 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 57.4 | 79.0 |
| 6 | Nolan McLean | 45.1 | 1 | 2 | 32.6% | 6.9% | 2.78 | 2.38 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 15.4 | 26.1 | 168.1 | 9 | 8 | 26.9% | 8.5% | 3.37 | 3.30 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 48.9 | 71.3 |
| 7 | Zack Wheeler | 24.2 | 2 | 0 | 23.2% | 6.3% | 2.55 | 2.70 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 9.5 | 14.5 | 153.2 | 11 | 6 | 25.6% | 6.6% | 3.22 | 3.26 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 48.8 | 70.0 |
| 8 | Shota Imanaga | 54.1 | 4 | 3 | 28.0% | 6.2% | 2.32 | 2.85 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 23.1 | 33.0 | 178.1 | 12 | 9 | 24.6% | 5.8% | 3.38 | 3.65 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 52.0 | 68.9 |
| 9 | Logan Webb | 48.0 | 2 | 4 | 20.2% | 7.2% | 5.06 | 3.56 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 3.2 | 8.2 | 180.0 | 11 | 11 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 3.75 | 3.21 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 42.5 | 68.2 |
| 10 | Braxton Ashcraft | 48.2 | 2 | 2 | 26.7% | 7.3% | 2.77 | 3.00 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 16.4 | 24.5 | 166.2 | 9 | 8 | 23.4% | 7.4% | 3.46 | 3.48 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 44.4 | 63.4 |
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