Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 123.0 | 11 | 3 | 30.0% | 4.5% | 2.34 | 2.51 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 55.1 | 82.3 | 189.0 | 15 | 6 | 29.6% | 4.9% | 2.62 | 2.63 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 76.7 | 116.1 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 111.0 | 6 | 7 | 35.4% | 5.6% | 3.08 | 2.30 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 39.2 | 66.4 | 168.0 | 10 | 10 | 34.5% | 6.5% | 3.00 | 2.53 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 61.2 | 98.0 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 132.0 | 10 | 4 | 23.0% | 5.7% | 2.45 | 3.47 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 52.1 | 67.2 | 205.0 | 14 | 7 | 23.8% | 6.2% | 2.85 | 3.47 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 71.2 | 94.6 |
| 4 | Seth Lugo | 136.0 | 12 | 4 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 2.38 | 3.22 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 56.2 | 75.6 | 206.0 | 16 | 8 | 21.9% | 5.8% | 2.93 | 3.48 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 70.4 | 93.8 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 139.0 | 6 | 6 | 25.0% | 4.9% | 2.72 | 3.27 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 46.7 | 65.6 | 209.0 | 10 | 9 | 24.5% | 5.2% | 2.97 | 3.40 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 65.5 | 91.1 |
| 6 | George Kirby | 123.1 | 7 | 7 | 24.7% | 2.6% | 3.21 | 2.74 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 36.8 | 60.9 | 191.1 | 12 | 10 | 24.2% | 3.0% | 3.25 | 2.96 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 57.2 | 89.9 |
| 7 | Cole Ragans | 122.1 | 7 | 6 | 29.1% | 8.0% | 3.24 | 2.74 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 38.7 | 62.5 | 190.1 | 11 | 10 | 28.0% | 8.3% | 3.36 | 3.01 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 57.1 | 88.5 |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | 123.0 | 8 | 6 | 22.5% | 5.7% | 2.71 | 2.83 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 43.9 | 66.8 | 186.0 | 12 | 10 | 22.5% | 6.3% | 3.15 | 3.10 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 57.4 | 86.4 |
| 9 | Jack Flaherty | 106.1 | 7 | 5 | 32.0% | 4.6% | 2.97 | 3.10 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 38.4 | 55.0 | 171.1 | 11 | 9 | 29.7% | 5.9% | 3.31 | 3.34 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 54.1 | 76.2 |
| 10 | Luis Castillo | 130.0 | 8 | 10 | 23.7% | 7.0% | 3.39 | 3.63 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 36.7 | 49.2 | 199.0 | 13 | 14 | 24.0% | 7.0% | 3.44 | 3.61 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 56.2 | 75.8 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 123.0 | 11 | 3 | 30.0% | 4.5% | 2.34 | 2.51 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 55.1 | 82.3 | 189.0 | 15 | 6 | 29.6% | 4.9% | 2.62 | 2.63 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 76.7 | 116.1 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 111.0 | 6 | 7 | 35.4% | 5.6% | 3.08 | 2.30 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 39.2 | 66.4 | 168.0 | 10 | 10 | 34.5% | 6.5% | 3.00 | 2.53 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 61.2 | 98.0 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 132.0 | 10 | 4 | 23.0% | 5.7% | 2.45 | 3.47 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 52.1 | 67.2 | 205.0 | 14 | 7 | 23.8% | 6.2% | 2.85 | 3.47 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 71.2 | 94.6 |
| 4 | Seth Lugo | 136.0 | 12 | 4 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 2.38 | 3.22 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 56.2 | 75.6 | 206.0 | 16 | 8 | 21.9% | 5.8% | 2.93 | 3.48 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 70.4 | 93.8 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 139.0 | 6 | 6 | 25.0% | 4.9% | 2.72 | 3.27 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 46.7 | 65.6 | 209.0 | 10 | 9 | 24.5% | 5.2% | 2.97 | 3.40 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 65.5 | 91.1 |
| 6 | George Kirby | 123.1 | 7 | 7 | 24.7% | 2.6% | 3.21 | 2.74 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 36.8 | 60.9 | 191.1 | 12 | 10 | 24.2% | 3.0% | 3.25 | 2.96 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 57.2 | 89.9 |
| 7 | Cole Ragans | 122.1 | 7 | 6 | 29.1% | 8.0% | 3.24 | 2.74 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 38.7 | 62.5 | 190.1 | 11 | 10 | 28.0% | 8.3% | 3.36 | 3.01 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 57.1 | 88.5 |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | 123.0 | 8 | 6 | 22.5% | 5.7% | 2.71 | 2.83 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 43.9 | 66.8 | 186.0 | 12 | 10 | 22.5% | 6.3% | 3.15 | 3.10 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 57.4 | 86.4 |
| 9 | Jack Flaherty | 106.1 | 7 | 5 | 32.0% | 4.6% | 2.97 | 3.10 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 38.4 | 55.0 | 171.1 | 11 | 9 | 29.7% | 5.9% | 3.31 | 3.34 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 54.1 | 76.2 |
| 10 | Luis Castillo | 130.0 | 8 | 10 | 23.7% | 7.0% | 3.39 | 3.63 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 36.7 | 49.2 | 199.0 | 13 | 14 | 24.0% | 7.0% | 3.44 | 3.61 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 56.2 | 75.8 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Chris Sale | 117.0 | 13 | 3 | 32.7% | 5.5% | 2.69 | 2.28 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 51.4 | 80.3 | 183.0 | 18 | 6 | 32.0% | 5.8% | 2.85 | 2.53 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 74.7 | 114.9 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 123.1 | 10 | 4 | 27.0% | 7.5% | 2.56 | 3.22 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 49.9 | 67.5 | 195.1 | 15 | 7 | 26.4% | 7.2% | 2.90 | 3.23 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 70.5 | 98.0 |
| 3 | Dylan Cease | 131.0 | 10 | 8 | 32.5% | 7.7% | 3.50 | 3.03 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 41.3 | 62.7 | 197.0 | 15 | 11 | 31.5% | 8.2% | 3.47 | 3.12 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 62.4 | 92.6 |
| 4 | Tyler Glasnow | 114.0 | 8 | 6 | 33.0% | 7.4% | 3.47 | 2.92 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 35.7 | 55.8 | 174.0 | 13 | 8 | 32.4% | 7.4% | 3.41 | 2.96 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 56.4 | 86.2 |
| 5 | Logan Webb | 135.0 | 7 | 8 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 3.73 | 2.94 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 30.1 | 53.5 | 207.0 | 12 | 11 | 20.6% | 5.9% | 3.61 | 2.98 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 50.4 | 85.4 |
| 6 | Ranger Suárez | 119.0 | 10 | 5 | 24.1% | 5.6% | 2.87 | 2.98 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 43.1 | 63.2 | 184.0 | 14 | 8 | 23.2% | 6.2% | 3.13 | 3.25 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 59.5 | 85.1 |
| 7 | Sonny Gray | 106.1 | 10 | 6 | 30.7% | 5.6% | 3.56 | 2.88 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 34.2 | 53.3 | 175.1 | 15 | 9 | 28.2% | 6.2% | 3.49 | 3.10 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 54.7 | 82.0 |
| 8 | Paul Skenes | 74.1 | 6 | 1 | 34.2% | 4.6% | 1.94 | 2.58 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 36.8 | 52.6 | 136.1 | 9 | 4 | 31.2% | 5.6% | 2.58 | 2.80 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 54.8 | 80.5 |
| 9 | Reynaldo López | 101.1 | 7 | 4 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 2.13 | 3.16 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 43.6 | 58.6 | 163.1 | 11 | 7 | 24.3% | 8.7% | 2.81 | 3.39 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 58.0 | 78.1 |
| 10 | Cristopher Sánchez | 109.0 | 7 | 5 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 2.97 | 2.64 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 34.4 | 56.9 | 170.0 | 11 | 8 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 3.23 | 3.01 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 49.2 | 77.4 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Chris Sale | 117.0 | 13 | 3 | 32.7% | 5.5% | 2.69 | 2.28 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 51.4 | 80.3 | 183.0 | 18 | 6 | 32.0% | 5.8% | 2.85 | 2.53 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 74.7 | 114.9 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 123.1 | 10 | 4 | 27.0% | 7.5% | 2.56 | 3.22 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 49.9 | 67.5 | 195.1 | 15 | 7 | 26.4% | 7.2% | 2.90 | 3.23 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 70.5 | 98.0 |
| 3 | Dylan Cease | 131.0 | 10 | 8 | 32.5% | 7.7% | 3.50 | 3.03 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 41.3 | 62.7 | 197.0 | 15 | 11 | 31.5% | 8.2% | 3.47 | 3.12 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 62.4 | 92.6 |
| 4 | Tyler Glasnow | 114.0 | 8 | 6 | 33.0% | 7.4% | 3.47 | 2.92 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 35.7 | 55.8 | 174.0 | 13 | 8 | 32.4% | 7.4% | 3.41 | 2.96 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 56.4 | 86.2 |
| 5 | Logan Webb | 135.0 | 7 | 8 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 3.73 | 2.94 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 30.1 | 53.5 | 207.0 | 12 | 11 | 20.6% | 5.9% | 3.61 | 2.98 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 50.4 | 85.4 |
| 6 | Ranger Suárez | 119.0 | 10 | 5 | 24.1% | 5.6% | 2.87 | 2.98 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 43.1 | 63.2 | 184.0 | 14 | 8 | 23.2% | 6.2% | 3.13 | 3.25 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 59.5 | 85.1 |
| 7 | Sonny Gray | 106.1 | 10 | 6 | 30.7% | 5.6% | 3.56 | 2.88 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 34.2 | 53.3 | 175.1 | 15 | 9 | 28.2% | 6.2% | 3.49 | 3.10 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 54.7 | 82.0 |
| 8 | Paul Skenes | 74.1 | 6 | 1 | 34.2% | 4.6% | 1.94 | 2.58 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 36.8 | 52.6 | 136.1 | 9 | 4 | 31.2% | 5.6% | 2.58 | 2.80 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 54.8 | 80.5 |
| 9 | Reynaldo López | 101.1 | 7 | 4 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 2.13 | 3.16 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 43.6 | 58.6 | 163.1 | 11 | 7 | 24.3% | 8.7% | 2.81 | 3.39 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 58.0 | 78.1 |
| 10 | Cristopher Sánchez | 109.0 | 7 | 5 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 2.97 | 2.64 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 34.4 | 56.9 | 170.0 | 11 | 8 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 3.23 | 3.01 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 49.2 | 77.4 |
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