Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Cam Schlittler | 178.2 | 13 | 6 | 31.4% | 6.0% | 2.01 | 2.61 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 84.3 | 121.9 | 194.2 | 14 | 7 | 31.0% | 6.1% | 2.13 | 2.72 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 89.1 | 127.5 |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | 161.1 | 10 | 5 | 35.2% | 10.4% | 2.40 | 2.47 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 70.4 | 106.7 | 177.1 | 11 | 6 | 34.9% | 10.3% | 2.49 | 2.58 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 75.5 | 113.4 |
| 3 | Parker Messick | 172.1 | 11 | 9 | 26.0% | 6.9% | 2.51 | 3.11 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 67.0 | 93.6 | 187.1 | 12 | 10 | 25.8% | 7.0% | 2.59 | 3.22 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 71.0 | 97.6 |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | 160.1 | 14 | 5 | 25.6% | 4.3% | 2.81 | 2.88 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 60.2 | 89.1 | 175.1 | 15 | 6 | 25.4% | 4.4% | 2.87 | 2.98 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 64.2 | 93.9 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 156.2 | 17 | 5 | 22.0% | 6.6% | 2.76 | 3.46 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 61.3 | 79.5 | 170.2 | 18 | 6 | 22.1% | 6.6% | 2.85 | 3.52 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 64.7 | 83.3 |
| 6 | Reid Detmers | 168.0 | 5 | 8 | 28.4% | 6.7% | 3.32 | 3.03 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 46.1 | 73.5 | 184.0 | 6 | 9 | 28.3% | 6.8% | 3.38 | 3.12 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 49.9 | 78.1 |
| 7 | Gavin Williams | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 33.5% | 7.8% | 3.78 | 3.49 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 49.3 | 68.3 | 184.0 | 14 | 8 | 33.1% | 7.9% | 3.77 | 3.55 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 53.6 | 72.9 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | 149.1 | 10 | 9 | 30.9% | 6.3% | 3.80 | 3.03 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 40.3 | 64.7 | 164.1 | 11 | 10 | 30.7% | 6.4% | 3.72 | 3.09 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 45.5 | 71.2 |
| 9 | Payton Tolle | 137.0 | 9 | 6 | 28.9% | 6.7% | 3.15 | 3.10 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 45.4 | 66.7 | 151.0 | 10 | 7 | 28.7% | 6.8% | 3.22 | 3.21 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 48.9 | 70.6 |
| 10 | Nick Martinez | 166.1 | 14 | 4 | 14.8% | 3.6% | 2.92 | 3.89 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 53.0 | 64.2 | 183.1 | 15 | 5 | 15.0% | 3.8% | 3.04 | 3.95 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 55.7 | 66.9 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Cam Schlittler | 178.2 | 13 | 6 | 31.4% | 6.0% | 2.01 | 2.61 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 84.3 | 121.9 | 194.2 | 14 | 7 | 31.0% | 6.1% | 2.13 | 2.72 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 89.1 | 127.5 |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | 161.1 | 10 | 5 | 35.2% | 10.4% | 2.40 | 2.47 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 70.4 | 106.7 | 177.1 | 11 | 6 | 34.9% | 10.3% | 2.49 | 2.58 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 75.5 | 113.4 |
| 3 | Parker Messick | 172.1 | 11 | 9 | 26.0% | 6.9% | 2.51 | 3.11 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 67.0 | 93.6 | 187.1 | 12 | 10 | 25.8% | 7.0% | 2.59 | 3.22 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 71.0 | 97.6 |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | 160.1 | 14 | 5 | 25.6% | 4.3% | 2.81 | 2.88 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 60.2 | 89.1 | 175.1 | 15 | 6 | 25.4% | 4.4% | 2.87 | 2.98 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 64.2 | 93.9 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 156.2 | 17 | 5 | 22.0% | 6.6% | 2.76 | 3.46 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 61.3 | 79.5 | 170.2 | 18 | 6 | 22.1% | 6.6% | 2.85 | 3.52 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 64.7 | 83.3 |
| 6 | Reid Detmers | 168.0 | 5 | 8 | 28.4% | 6.7% | 3.32 | 3.03 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 46.1 | 73.5 | 184.0 | 6 | 9 | 28.3% | 6.8% | 3.38 | 3.12 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 49.9 | 78.1 |
| 7 | Gavin Williams | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 33.5% | 7.8% | 3.78 | 3.49 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 49.3 | 68.3 | 184.0 | 14 | 8 | 33.1% | 7.9% | 3.77 | 3.55 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 53.6 | 72.9 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | 149.1 | 10 | 9 | 30.9% | 6.3% | 3.80 | 3.03 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 40.3 | 64.7 | 164.1 | 11 | 10 | 30.7% | 6.4% | 3.72 | 3.09 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 45.5 | 71.2 |
| 9 | Payton Tolle | 137.0 | 9 | 6 | 28.9% | 6.7% | 3.15 | 3.10 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 45.4 | 66.7 | 151.0 | 10 | 7 | 28.7% | 6.8% | 3.22 | 3.21 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 48.9 | 70.6 |
| 10 | Nick Martinez | 166.1 | 14 | 4 | 14.8% | 3.6% | 2.92 | 3.89 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 53.0 | 64.2 | 183.1 | 15 | 5 | 15.0% | 3.8% | 3.04 | 3.95 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 55.7 | 66.9 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | 161.1 | 14 | 5 | 38.3% | 6.7% | 1.95 | 2.23 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 83.3 | 123.9 | 176.1 | 15 | 6 | 37.8% | 6.8% | 2.04 | 2.36 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 88.8 | 130.6 |
| 2 | Chris Sale | 157.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.3% | 4.9% | 2.18 | 2.28 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 73.5 | 112.1 | 173.0 | 15 | 10 | 30.2% | 5.1% | 2.24 | 2.34 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 79.4 | 121.0 |
| 3 | Cristopher Sánchez | 187.1 | 17 | 5 | 27.0% | 5.4% | 2.79 | 2.72 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 73.7 | 110.7 | 204.1 | 18 | 6 | 26.9% | 5.4% | 2.82 | 2.75 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 79.0 | 118.7 |
| 4 | Jesús Luzardo | 178.2 | 14 | 5 | 30.4% | 7.2% | 2.87 | 2.78 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 68.4 | 102.7 | 190.2 | 15 | 6 | 30.3% | 7.2% | 2.93 | 2.80 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 71.9 | 107.8 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 172.0 | 13 | 8 | 26.0% | 5.9% | 2.62 | 3.33 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 66.1 | 88.4 | 190.0 | 14 | 9 | 26.1% | 6.0% | 2.70 | 3.37 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 71.1 | 95.0 |
| 6 | Chase Burns | 148.1 | 15 | 3 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 2.73 | 3.09 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 61.8 | 85.0 | 159.1 | 16 | 4 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 2.77 | 3.12 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 65.6 | 90.0 |
| 7 | Cade Cavalli | 164.2 | 12 | 5 | 28.2% | 7.0% | 3.12 | 3.33 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 56.7 | 78.1 | 177.2 | 13 | 6 | 28.0% | 7.0% | 3.14 | 3.35 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 60.6 | 83.4 |
| 8 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 173.0 | 15 | 5 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 2.55 | 3.75 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 65.3 | 79.7 | 188.0 | 16 | 6 | 18.2% | 8.0% | 2.68 | 3.82 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 68.1 | 82.4 |
| 9 | Zack Wheeler | 143.1 | 12 | 5 | 30.0% | 7.8% | 3.14 | 3.54 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 50.9 | 66.2 | 160.1 | 13 | 6 | 29.8% | 7.8% | 3.14 | 3.57 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 56.3 | 72.9 |
| 10 | Nolan McLean | 166.2 | 11 | 9 | 26.5% | 9.5% | 3.24 | 3.68 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 52.7 | 68.0 | 181.2 | 12 | 10 | 26.3% | 9.5% | 3.27 | 3.75 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 56.8 | 72.1 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | 161.1 | 14 | 5 | 38.3% | 6.7% | 1.95 | 2.23 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 83.3 | 123.9 | 176.1 | 15 | 6 | 37.8% | 6.8% | 2.04 | 2.36 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 88.8 | 130.6 |
| 2 | Chris Sale | 157.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.3% | 4.9% | 2.18 | 2.28 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 73.5 | 112.1 | 173.0 | 15 | 10 | 30.2% | 5.1% | 2.24 | 2.34 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 79.4 | 121.0 |
| 3 | Cristopher Sánchez | 187.1 | 17 | 5 | 27.0% | 5.4% | 2.79 | 2.72 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 73.7 | 110.7 | 204.1 | 18 | 6 | 26.9% | 5.4% | 2.82 | 2.75 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 79.0 | 118.7 |
| 4 | Jesús Luzardo | 178.2 | 14 | 5 | 30.4% | 7.2% | 2.87 | 2.78 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 68.4 | 102.7 | 190.2 | 15 | 6 | 30.3% | 7.2% | 2.93 | 2.80 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 71.9 | 107.8 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 172.0 | 13 | 8 | 26.0% | 5.9% | 2.62 | 3.33 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 66.1 | 88.4 | 190.0 | 14 | 9 | 26.1% | 6.0% | 2.70 | 3.37 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 71.1 | 95.0 |
| 6 | Chase Burns | 148.1 | 15 | 3 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 2.73 | 3.09 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 61.8 | 85.0 | 159.1 | 16 | 4 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 2.77 | 3.12 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 65.6 | 90.0 |
| 7 | Cade Cavalli | 164.2 | 12 | 5 | 28.2% | 7.0% | 3.12 | 3.33 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 56.7 | 78.1 | 177.2 | 13 | 6 | 28.0% | 7.0% | 3.14 | 3.35 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 60.6 | 83.4 |
| 8 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 173.0 | 15 | 5 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 2.55 | 3.75 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 65.3 | 79.7 | 188.0 | 16 | 6 | 18.2% | 8.0% | 2.68 | 3.82 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 68.1 | 82.4 |
| 9 | Zack Wheeler | 143.1 | 12 | 5 | 30.0% | 7.8% | 3.14 | 3.54 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 50.9 | 66.2 | 160.1 | 13 | 6 | 29.8% | 7.8% | 3.14 | 3.57 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 56.3 | 72.9 |
| 10 | Nolan McLean | 166.2 | 11 | 9 | 26.5% | 9.5% | 3.24 | 3.68 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 52.7 | 68.0 | 181.2 | 12 | 10 | 26.3% | 9.5% | 3.27 | 3.75 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 56.8 | 72.1 |
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