Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Cam Schlittler | 163.2 | 12 | 6 | 30.9% | 6.5% | 2.09 | 2.62 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 75.9 | 110.1 | 189.2 | 14 | 7 | 30.4% | 6.6% | 2.28 | 2.78 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 83.8 | 120.2 |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | 150.1 | 9 | 5 | 36.1% | 10.8% | 2.33 | 2.42 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 66.9 | 101.6 | 178.1 | 11 | 6 | 35.2% | 10.6% | 2.47 | 2.60 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 76.4 | 114.0 |
| 3 | Parker Messick | 161.0 | 11 | 8 | 25.3% | 6.8% | 2.46 | 3.05 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 63.6 | 89.5 | 188.0 | 13 | 9 | 24.9% | 6.8% | 2.63 | 3.18 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 70.7 | 98.2 |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | 146.1 | 14 | 5 | 26.0% | 4.7% | 2.95 | 2.90 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 54.1 | 80.1 | 171.1 | 16 | 6 | 25.7% | 4.9% | 3.05 | 3.04 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 61.1 | 88.9 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 143.2 | 16 | 4 | 21.8% | 6.3% | 2.82 | 3.54 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 55.6 | 71.0 | 168.2 | 18 | 5 | 22.2% | 6.4% | 2.99 | 3.60 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 61.6 | 78.5 |
| 6 | Logan Gilbert | 160.1 | 11 | 8 | 26.0% | 6.3% | 3.42 | 3.64 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 46.8 | 62.1 | 188.1 | 13 | 9 | 26.1% | 6.3% | 3.44 | 3.69 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 54.8 | 71.7 |
| 7 | Reid Detmers | 155.0 | 4 | 8 | 27.8% | 7.0% | 3.54 | 3.19 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 37.9 | 60.4 | 181.0 | 5 | 9 | 27.7% | 7.2% | 3.58 | 3.29 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 43.8 | 68.1 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | 137.1 | 10 | 9 | 29.8% | 6.6% | 4.00 | 3.07 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 34.4 | 56.2 | 162.1 | 12 | 10 | 29.5% | 6.5% | 3.88 | 3.12 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 42.8 | 67.7 |
| 9 | Payton Tolle | 131.0 | 8 | 6 | 27.7% | 7.0% | 3.23 | 3.27 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 41.2 | 59.1 | 154.0 | 9 | 7 | 27.4% | 7.0% | 3.33 | 3.38 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 46.2 | 65.4 |
| 10 | José Soriano | 151.1 | 11 | 7 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 3.45 | 3.77 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 43.6 | 55.9 | 178.1 | 13 | 8 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 3.48 | 3.79 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 50.7 | 64.8 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Cam Schlittler | 163.2 | 12 | 6 | 30.9% | 6.5% | 2.09 | 2.62 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 75.9 | 110.1 | 189.2 | 14 | 7 | 30.4% | 6.6% | 2.28 | 2.78 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 83.8 | 120.2 |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | 150.1 | 9 | 5 | 36.1% | 10.8% | 2.33 | 2.42 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 66.9 | 101.6 | 178.1 | 11 | 6 | 35.2% | 10.6% | 2.47 | 2.60 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 76.4 | 114.0 |
| 3 | Parker Messick | 161.0 | 11 | 8 | 25.3% | 6.8% | 2.46 | 3.05 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 63.6 | 89.5 | 188.0 | 13 | 9 | 24.9% | 6.8% | 2.63 | 3.18 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 70.7 | 98.2 |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | 146.1 | 14 | 5 | 26.0% | 4.7% | 2.95 | 2.90 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 54.1 | 80.1 | 171.1 | 16 | 6 | 25.7% | 4.9% | 3.05 | 3.04 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 61.1 | 88.9 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 143.2 | 16 | 4 | 21.8% | 6.3% | 2.82 | 3.54 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 55.6 | 71.0 | 168.2 | 18 | 5 | 22.2% | 6.4% | 2.99 | 3.60 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 61.6 | 78.5 |
| 6 | Logan Gilbert | 160.1 | 11 | 8 | 26.0% | 6.3% | 3.42 | 3.64 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 46.8 | 62.1 | 188.1 | 13 | 9 | 26.1% | 6.3% | 3.44 | 3.69 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 54.8 | 71.7 |
| 7 | Reid Detmers | 155.0 | 4 | 8 | 27.8% | 7.0% | 3.54 | 3.19 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 37.9 | 60.4 | 181.0 | 5 | 9 | 27.7% | 7.2% | 3.58 | 3.29 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 43.8 | 68.1 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | 137.1 | 10 | 9 | 29.8% | 6.6% | 4.00 | 3.07 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 34.4 | 56.2 | 162.1 | 12 | 10 | 29.5% | 6.5% | 3.88 | 3.12 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 42.8 | 67.7 |
| 9 | Payton Tolle | 131.0 | 8 | 6 | 27.7% | 7.0% | 3.23 | 3.27 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 41.2 | 59.1 | 154.0 | 9 | 7 | 27.4% | 7.0% | 3.33 | 3.38 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 46.2 | 65.4 |
| 10 | José Soriano | 151.1 | 11 | 7 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 3.45 | 3.77 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 43.6 | 55.9 | 178.1 | 13 | 8 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 3.48 | 3.79 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 50.7 | 64.8 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | 151.0 | 14 | 5 | 38.9% | 6.1% | 1.73 | 2.14 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 82.7 | 122.3 | 177.0 | 16 | 6 | 37.9% | 6.5% | 1.93 | 2.35 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 92.1 | 134.4 |
| 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | 175.1 | 16 | 4 | 27.8% | 5.4% | 2.52 | 2.57 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 74.9 | 112.4 | 205.1 | 18 | 5 | 27.5% | 5.4% | 2.59 | 2.70 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 85.0 | 126.0 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 144.0 | 13 | 9 | 30.7% | 4.9% | 2.06 | 2.18 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 69.7 | 106.8 | 170.0 | 15 | 10 | 30.7% | 5.0% | 2.17 | 2.29 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 79.9 | 121.7 |
| 4 | Jesús Luzardo | 163.0 | 12 | 5 | 30.3% | 7.5% | 3.09 | 2.80 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 57.8 | 88.7 | 191.0 | 14 | 6 | 30.0% | 7.5% | 3.16 | 2.90 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 66.1 | 100.0 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 158.0 | 12 | 8 | 25.2% | 5.9% | 2.56 | 3.26 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 61.3 | 83.0 | 186.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.3% | 6.0% | 2.66 | 3.31 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 70.2 | 94.7 |
| 6 | Chase Burns | 145.1 | 15 | 3 | 28.9% | 8.4% | 2.79 | 3.13 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 59.8 | 82.0 | 163.1 | 16 | 4 | 28.8% | 8.4% | 2.87 | 3.18 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 64.9 | 88.7 |
| 7 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 162.0 | 14 | 4 | 18.0% | 7.9% | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 61.9 | 76.3 | 187.0 | 16 | 5 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 2.74 | 3.80 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 66.5 | 81.1 |
| 8 | Cade Cavalli | 152.2 | 12 | 5 | 27.7% | 7.2% | 3.12 | 3.37 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 53.0 | 72.2 | 174.2 | 13 | 6 | 27.3% | 7.2% | 3.19 | 3.43 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 58.3 | 79.2 |
| 9 | Paul Skenes | 145.0 | 9 | 11 | 29.5% | 6.9% | 3.79 | 2.96 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 38.0 | 62.8 | 171.0 | 11 | 12 | 29.3% | 6.9% | 3.63 | 2.97 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 48.0 | 77.0 |
| 10 | Nolan McLean | 155.2 | 10 | 8 | 26.7% | 9.5% | 3.06 | 3.59 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 52.0 | 67.7 | 180.2 | 12 | 9 | 26.4% | 9.5% | 3.14 | 3.70 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 59.1 | 75.2 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | 151.0 | 14 | 5 | 38.9% | 6.1% | 1.73 | 2.14 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 82.7 | 122.3 | 177.0 | 16 | 6 | 37.9% | 6.5% | 1.93 | 2.35 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 92.1 | 134.4 |
| 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | 175.1 | 16 | 4 | 27.8% | 5.4% | 2.52 | 2.57 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 74.9 | 112.4 | 205.1 | 18 | 5 | 27.5% | 5.4% | 2.59 | 2.70 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 85.0 | 126.0 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 144.0 | 13 | 9 | 30.7% | 4.9% | 2.06 | 2.18 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 69.7 | 106.8 | 170.0 | 15 | 10 | 30.7% | 5.0% | 2.17 | 2.29 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 79.9 | 121.7 |
| 4 | Jesús Luzardo | 163.0 | 12 | 5 | 30.3% | 7.5% | 3.09 | 2.80 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 57.8 | 88.7 | 191.0 | 14 | 6 | 30.0% | 7.5% | 3.16 | 2.90 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 66.1 | 100.0 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 158.0 | 12 | 8 | 25.2% | 5.9% | 2.56 | 3.26 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 61.3 | 83.0 | 186.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.3% | 6.0% | 2.66 | 3.31 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 70.2 | 94.7 |
| 6 | Chase Burns | 145.1 | 15 | 3 | 28.9% | 8.4% | 2.79 | 3.13 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 59.8 | 82.0 | 163.1 | 16 | 4 | 28.8% | 8.4% | 2.87 | 3.18 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 64.9 | 88.7 |
| 7 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 162.0 | 14 | 4 | 18.0% | 7.9% | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 61.9 | 76.3 | 187.0 | 16 | 5 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 2.74 | 3.80 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 66.5 | 81.1 |
| 8 | Cade Cavalli | 152.2 | 12 | 5 | 27.7% | 7.2% | 3.12 | 3.37 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 53.0 | 72.2 | 174.2 | 13 | 6 | 27.3% | 7.2% | 3.19 | 3.43 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 58.3 | 79.2 |
| 9 | Paul Skenes | 145.0 | 9 | 11 | 29.5% | 6.9% | 3.79 | 2.96 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 38.0 | 62.8 | 171.0 | 11 | 12 | 29.3% | 6.9% | 3.63 | 2.97 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 48.0 | 77.0 |
| 10 | Nolan McLean | 155.2 | 10 | 8 | 26.7% | 9.5% | 3.06 | 3.59 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 52.0 | 67.7 | 180.2 | 12 | 9 | 26.4% | 9.5% | 3.14 | 3.70 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 59.1 | 75.2 |
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