Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	102.0	9	2	32.1%	3.3%	2.29	2.11	3.8	3.8	46.5	73.6	202.0	17	6	30.9%	4.1%	2.50	2.42	6.9	6.7	86.3	133.0
2	Garrett Crochet	109.1	7	4	31.3%	7.2%	2.06	2.52	3.4	4.3	50.2	74.2	192.1	13	8	31.3%	7.4%	2.43	2.66	5.8	6.6	81.3	120.5
3	Max Fried	108.0	10	2	24.5%	4.9%	1.92	2.74	3.0	3.9	51.4	72.5	203.0	17	6	23.8%	5.6%	2.53	3.11	5.0	5.9	80.9	112.3
4	Hunter Brown	91.0	8	3	31.6%	8.1%	1.88	2.84	2.5	4.0	45.4	62.2	181.0	14	8	28.9%	8.2%	2.69	3.24	4.4	5.7	71.3	96.7
5	Jacob deGrom	95.1	8	2	25.9%	5.5%	2.08	3.02	2.4	4.0	43.1	58.7	170.1	13	5	27.4%	5.4%	2.59	3.11	4.4	5.6	67.4	93.7
6	Framber Valdez	103.0	8	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.88	3.04	2.5	3.2	36.7	53.4	202.0	15	9	23.7%	8.6%	3.12	3.31	4.4	5.2	65.6	92.2
7	Kris Bubic	91.0	6	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.18	2.52	2.9	3.3	39.1	59.1	176.0	11	9	25.0%	7.6%	2.86	3.04	4.4	4.7	61.1	89.7
8	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	154.1	9	7	25.2%	5.0%	2.74	3.06	3.8	4.5	54.8	79.4
9	Carlos Rodón	101.2	9	5	29.7%	8.5%	2.92	3.49	1.9	2.5	38.7	50.2	190.2	15	10	28.6%	8.3%	3.40	3.67	3.5	3.6	60.4	78.0
10	Joe Ryan	91.1	8	3	29.1%	5.6%	2.86	3.20	2.1	2.7	35.1	48.2	176.1	14	8	28.1%	5.7%	3.27	3.48	3.9	4.1	58.0	78.0

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	102.0	9	2	32.1%	3.3%	2.29	2.11	3.8	3.8	46.5	73.6	202.0	17	6	30.9%	4.1%	2.50	2.42	6.9	6.7	86.3	133.0
2	Garrett Crochet	109.1	7	4	31.3%	7.2%	2.06	2.52	3.4	4.3	50.2	74.2	192.1	13	8	31.3%	7.4%	2.43	2.66	5.8	6.6	81.3	120.5
3	Max Fried	108.0	10	2	24.5%	4.9%	1.92	2.74	3.0	3.9	51.4	72.5	203.0	17	6	23.8%	5.6%	2.53	3.11	5.0	5.9	80.9	112.3
4	Hunter Brown	91.0	8	3	31.6%	8.1%	1.88	2.84	2.5	4.0	45.4	62.2	181.0	14	8	28.9%	8.2%	2.69	3.24	4.4	5.7	71.3	96.7
5	Jacob deGrom	95.1	8	2	25.9%	5.5%	2.08	3.02	2.4	4.0	43.1	58.7	170.1	13	5	27.4%	5.4%	2.59	3.11	4.4	5.6	67.4	93.7
6	Framber Valdez	103.0	8	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.88	3.04	2.5	3.2	36.7	53.4	202.0	15	9	23.7%	8.6%	3.12	3.31	4.4	5.2	65.6	92.2
7	Kris Bubic	91.0	6	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.18	2.52	2.9	3.3	39.1	59.1	176.0	11	9	25.0%	7.6%	2.86	3.04	4.4	4.7	61.1	89.7
8	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	154.1	9	7	25.2%	5.0%	2.74	3.06	3.8	4.5	54.8	79.4
9	Carlos Rodón	101.2	9	5	29.7%	8.5%	2.92	3.49	1.9	2.5	38.7	50.2	190.2	15	10	28.6%	8.3%	3.40	3.67	3.5	3.6	60.4	78.0
10	Joe Ryan	91.1	8	3	29.1%	5.6%	2.86	3.20	2.1	2.7	35.1	48.2	176.1	14	8	28.1%	5.7%	3.27	3.48	3.9	4.1	58.0	78.0

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	107.1	7	5	27.7%	5.3%	2.52	2.23	3.4	3.2	42.7	69.7	209.1	14	10	25.1%	5.4%	2.84	2.64	5.7	5.4	74.2	117.5
2	Paul Skenes	106.0	4	7	26.9%	7.1%	2.12	2.49	3.4	4.2	43.0	66.7	194.0	10	11	27.6%	7.2%	2.55	2.78	5.8	6.6	73.2	110.3
3	Zack Wheeler	99.0	7	3	32.9%	6.5%	2.55	2.66	3.0	3.6	41.1	61.3	201.0	14	7	30.2%	6.5%	2.87	3.00	5.7	6.1	74.5	107.9
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	89.2	7	6	28.4%	8.7%	2.61	3.23	2.0	2.8	35.9	48.6	174.2	14	10	27.4%	7.8%	3.04	3.32	3.9	4.4	61.5	84.4
5	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.65	2.5	3.0	36.1	54.5	147.1	9	6	30.5%	6.9%	2.75	2.86	4.0	4.6	56.2	83.0
6	MacKenzie Gore	99.0	3	8	31.8%	7.4%	3.09	2.91	2.8	2.9	31.4	48.9	184.0	8	13	29.6%	7.9%	3.33	3.27	4.5	4.4	54.6	79.8
7	Cristopher Sánchez	87.2	6	2	25.3%	7.7%	2.87	3.14	2.0	2.7	31.0	44.3	177.2	12	6	23.7%	7.2%	3.19	3.40	3.7	4.4	55.3	77.1
8	Spencer Schwellenbach	103.2	6	4	23.5%	4.2%	3.21	3.40	1.8	2.1	30.4	43.1	197.2	12	8	23.6%	4.6%	3.41	3.50	3.6	3.9	54.6	76.7
9	Robbie Ray	92.1	8	2	27.6%	9.5%	2.83	3.26	1.7	2.5	35.6	48.3	174.1	13	7	27.0%	8.9%	3.25	3.57	2.8	3.6	56.7	74.6
10	Ranger Suárez	65.0	6	2	23.0%	6.3%	2.08	2.84	1.9	2.8	29.4	41.4	152.0	12	6	22.2%	6.8%	2.90	3.27	3.6	4.4	52.8	73.7

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	107.1	7	5	27.7%	5.3%	2.52	2.23	3.4	3.2	42.7	69.7	209.1	14	10	25.1%	5.4%	2.84	2.64	5.7	5.4	74.2	117.5
2	Paul Skenes	106.0	4	7	26.9%	7.1%	2.12	2.49	3.4	4.2	43.0	66.7	194.0	10	11	27.6%	7.2%	2.55	2.78	5.8	6.6	73.2	110.3
3	Zack Wheeler	99.0	7	3	32.9%	6.5%	2.55	2.66	3.0	3.6	41.1	61.3	201.0	14	7	30.2%	6.5%	2.87	3.00	5.7	6.1	74.5	107.9
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	89.2	7	6	28.4%	8.7%	2.61	3.23	2.0	2.8	35.9	48.6	174.2	14	10	27.4%	7.8%	3.04	3.32	3.9	4.4	61.5	84.4
5	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.65	2.5	3.0	36.1	54.5	147.1	9	6	30.5%	6.9%	2.75	2.86	4.0	4.6	56.2	83.0
6	MacKenzie Gore	99.0	3	8	31.8%	7.4%	3.09	2.91	2.8	2.9	31.4	48.9	184.0	8	13	29.6%	7.9%	3.33	3.27	4.5	4.4	54.6	79.8
7	Cristopher Sánchez	87.2	6	2	25.3%	7.7%	2.87	3.14	2.0	2.7	31.0	44.3	177.2	12	6	23.7%	7.2%	3.19	3.40	3.7	4.4	55.3	77.1
8	Spencer Schwellenbach	103.2	6	4	23.5%	4.2%	3.21	3.40	1.8	2.1	30.4	43.1	197.2	12	8	23.6%	4.6%	3.41	3.50	3.6	3.9	54.6	76.7
9	Robbie Ray	92.1	8	2	27.6%	9.5%	2.83	3.26	1.7	2.5	35.6	48.3	174.1	13	7	27.0%	8.9%	3.25	3.57	2.8	3.6	56.7	74.6
10	Ranger Suárez	65.0	6	2	23.0%	6.3%	2.08	2.84	1.9	2.8	29.4	41.4	152.0	12	6	22.2%	6.8%	2.90	3.27	3.6	4.4	52.8	73.7

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG