Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	163.2	12	6	30.9%	6.5%	2.09	2.63	5.1	6.2	75.9	110.0	187.2	14	7	30.4%	6.6%	2.25	2.78	5.7	6.7	83.7	119.5
2	Dylan Cease	150.1	9	5	36.1%	10.8%	2.33	2.43	5.1	5.3	66.9	101.5	176.1	11	6	35.3%	10.7%	2.50	2.61	5.8	5.8	75.3	112.3
3	Parker Messick	161.0	11	8	25.3%	6.8%	2.46	3.06	4.3	5.7	63.6	89.3	187.0	13	9	25.0%	6.8%	2.65	3.19	4.8	6.3	70.1	97.2
4	Drew Rasmussen	146.1	14	5	26.0%	4.7%	2.95	2.91	4.1	4.5	54.1	79.9	170.1	16	6	25.7%	4.9%	3.01	3.05	4.6	5.0	61.5	89.0
5	Sonny Gray	143.2	16	4	21.8%	6.3%	2.82	3.55	2.7	5.0	55.6	70.9	167.2	18	5	22.2%	6.3%	2.95	3.59	3.2	5.5	62.0	78.9
6	Gavin Williams	163.0	13	7	33.0%	7.6%	3.81	3.58	3.0	3.0	47.2	63.9	189.0	15	8	32.3%	7.8%	3.76	3.62	3.4	3.5	55.2	73.8
7	Logan Gilbert	160.1	11	8	26.0%	6.3%	3.42	3.65	2.8	3.7	46.8	61.9	187.1	13	9	26.1%	6.3%	3.46	3.71	3.3	4.2	54.2	70.7
8	Reid Detmers	155.0	4	8	27.8%	7.0%	3.54	3.20	3.8	3.5	37.9	60.2	180.0	5	9	27.5%	7.1%	3.60	3.30	4.3	3.8	43.1	67.2
9	Jacob deGrom	137.1	10	9	29.8%	6.6%	4.00	3.08	3.7	2.6	34.4	56.1	161.1	12	10	29.6%	6.5%	3.90	3.13	4.3	3.1	42.2	66.7
10	Sean Burke	154.2	8	6	26.3%	8.5%	3.20	3.65	2.9	4.0	47.0	61.7	180.2	9	8	25.9%	8.7%	3.34	3.81	3.2	4.3	51.6	65.5

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	163.2	12	6	30.9%	6.5%	2.09	2.63	5.1	6.2	75.9	110.0	187.2	14	7	30.4%	6.6%	2.25	2.78	5.7	6.7	83.7	119.5
2	Dylan Cease	150.1	9	5	36.1%	10.8%	2.33	2.43	5.1	5.3	66.9	101.5	176.1	11	6	35.3%	10.7%	2.50	2.61	5.8	5.8	75.3	112.3
3	Parker Messick	161.0	11	8	25.3%	6.8%	2.46	3.06	4.3	5.7	63.6	89.3	187.0	13	9	25.0%	6.8%	2.65	3.19	4.8	6.3	70.1	97.2
4	Drew Rasmussen	146.1	14	5	26.0%	4.7%	2.95	2.91	4.1	4.5	54.1	79.9	170.1	16	6	25.7%	4.9%	3.01	3.05	4.6	5.0	61.5	89.0
5	Sonny Gray	143.2	16	4	21.8%	6.3%	2.82	3.55	2.7	5.0	55.6	70.9	167.2	18	5	22.2%	6.3%	2.95	3.59	3.2	5.5	62.0	78.9
6	Gavin Williams	163.0	13	7	33.0%	7.6%	3.81	3.58	3.0	3.0	47.2	63.9	189.0	15	8	32.3%	7.8%	3.76	3.62	3.4	3.5	55.2	73.8
7	Logan Gilbert	160.1	11	8	26.0%	6.3%	3.42	3.65	2.8	3.7	46.8	61.9	187.1	13	9	26.1%	6.3%	3.46	3.71	3.3	4.2	54.2	70.7
8	Reid Detmers	155.0	4	8	27.8%	7.0%	3.54	3.20	3.8	3.5	37.9	60.2	180.0	5	9	27.5%	7.1%	3.60	3.30	4.3	3.8	43.1	67.2
9	Jacob deGrom	137.1	10	9	29.8%	6.6%	4.00	3.08	3.7	2.6	34.4	56.1	161.1	12	10	29.6%	6.5%	3.90	3.13	4.3	3.1	42.2	66.7
10	Sean Burke	154.2	8	6	26.3%	8.5%	3.20	3.65	2.9	4.0	47.0	61.7	180.2	9	8	25.9%	8.7%	3.34	3.81	3.2	4.3	51.6	65.5

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	151.0	14	5	38.9%	6.1%	1.73	2.15	5.7	6.3	82.7	122.2	176.0	16	6	37.9%	6.5%	1.94	2.36	6.3	7.0	91.5	133.4
2	Cristopher Sánchez	175.1	16	4	27.8%	5.4%	2.52	2.58	5.7	6.1	74.9	112.3	204.1	18	5	27.5%	5.5%	2.60	2.65	6.6	6.9	84.4	126.5
3	Chris Sale	144.0	13	9	30.7%	4.9%	2.06	2.19	5.3	5.8	69.7	106.7	169.0	15	10	30.6%	5.0%	2.18	2.31	6.1	6.5	79.2	120.4
4	Jesús Luzardo	169.2	13	5	30.0%	7.3%	3.02	2.86	5.0	4.5	61.7	92.7	196.2	15	6	29.8%	7.3%	3.07	2.94	5.7	5.2	70.4	104.5
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	158.0	12	8	25.2%	5.9%	2.56	3.27	4.1	5.8	61.3	82.9	184.0	14	9	25.3%	6.0%	2.69	3.33	4.7	6.4	69.1	93.1
6	Chase Burns	145.1	15	3	28.9%	8.4%	2.79	3.13	4.2	4.5	59.8	81.8	162.1	16	4	28.8%	8.4%	2.88	3.20	4.7	4.8	64.3	87.8
7	Eduardo Rodriguez	167.0	14	5	17.8%	8.0%	2.59	3.71	3.0	5.7	61.7	76.4	191.0	15	6	18.0%	8.0%	2.78	3.79	3.3	6.0	65.7	80.7
8	Cade Cavalli	152.2	12	5	27.7%	7.2%	3.12	3.38	3.3	3.3	53.0	72.0	173.2	13	6	27.3%	7.3%	3.21	3.44	3.7	3.6	57.7	78.2
9	Nolan McLean	155.2	10	8	26.7%	9.5%	3.06	3.60	3.0	3.1	52.0	67.6	179.2	12	9	26.4%	9.4%	3.16	3.62	3.4	3.5	58.5	76.0
10	Paul Skenes	149.2	9	11	28.9%	7.1%	3.97	3.07	4.1	2.2	35.7	59.6	174.2	11	12	28.9%	7.1%	3.81	3.07	4.8	2.9	45.1	73.0

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	151.0	14	5	38.9%	6.1%	1.73	2.15	5.7	6.3	82.7	122.2	176.0	16	6	37.9%	6.5%	1.94	2.36	6.3	7.0	91.5	133.4
2	Cristopher Sánchez	175.1	16	4	27.8%	5.4%	2.52	2.58	5.7	6.1	74.9	112.3	204.1	18	5	27.5%	5.5%	2.60	2.65	6.6	6.9	84.4	126.5
3	Chris Sale	144.0	13	9	30.7%	4.9%	2.06	2.19	5.3	5.8	69.7	106.7	169.0	15	10	30.6%	5.0%	2.18	2.31	6.1	6.5	79.2	120.4
4	Jesús Luzardo	169.2	13	5	30.0%	7.3%	3.02	2.86	5.0	4.5	61.7	92.7	196.2	15	6	29.8%	7.3%	3.07	2.94	5.7	5.2	70.4	104.5
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	158.0	12	8	25.2%	5.9%	2.56	3.27	4.1	5.8	61.3	82.9	184.0	14	9	25.3%	6.0%	2.69	3.33	4.7	6.4	69.1	93.1
6	Chase Burns	145.1	15	3	28.9%	8.4%	2.79	3.13	4.2	4.5	59.8	81.8	162.1	16	4	28.8%	8.4%	2.88	3.20	4.7	4.8	64.3	87.8
7	Eduardo Rodriguez	167.0	14	5	17.8%	8.0%	2.59	3.71	3.0	5.7	61.7	76.4	191.0	15	6	18.0%	8.0%	2.78	3.79	3.3	6.0	65.7	80.7
8	Cade Cavalli	152.2	12	5	27.7%	7.2%	3.12	3.38	3.3	3.3	53.0	72.0	173.2	13	6	27.3%	7.3%	3.21	3.44	3.7	3.6	57.7	78.2
9	Nolan McLean	155.2	10	8	26.7%	9.5%	3.06	3.60	3.0	3.1	52.0	67.6	179.2	12	9	26.4%	9.4%	3.16	3.62	3.4	3.5	58.5	76.0
10	Paul Skenes	149.2	9	11	28.9%	7.1%	3.97	3.07	4.1	2.2	35.7	59.6	174.2	11	12	28.9%	7.1%	3.81	3.07	4.8	2.9	45.1	73.0

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG