Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	34.2	3	2	28.8%	3.6%	2.34	2.42	1.2	1.3	15.3	23.4	194.2	15	9	28.8%	5.0%	2.77	2.69	5.8	5.4	74.7	113.8
2	Garrett Crochet	44.0	3	2	28.6%	10.3%	2.05	2.63	1.3	1.5	20.0	29.2	175.0	13	8	30.3%	8.8%	2.78	2.81	5.1	4.9	68.1	100.9
3	Hunter Brown	37.0	4	1	29.9%	5.2%	1.22	1.84	1.5	1.9	21.5	32.4	174.0	14	8	26.0%	7.6%	3.05	3.17	4.2	4.1	60.4	86.1
4	Max Fried	37.2	5	0	21.0%	5.7%	1.43	2.97	0.9	1.3	21.1	27.5	180.2	15	7	21.9%	6.6%	2.99	3.47	3.6	3.8	61.8	82.5
5	Cole Ragans	30.2	1	1	35.9%	7.0%	4.40	2.75	0.9	0.3	5.9	11.9	173.2	10	8	29.2%	8.5%	3.68	3.30	3.9	3.0	47.0	70.1
6	Drew Rasmussen	25.2	1	1	27.8%	6.2%	2.10	2.30	0.8	1.0	10.5	16.8	142.2	9	6	24.7%	6.2%	3.09	3.12	2.9	2.7	45.6	67.5
7	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.16	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.5	138.1	8	6	28.8%	5.6%	3.12	3.12	3.1	2.9	45.2	66.4
8	Framber Valdez	36.0	1	3	20.9%	8.8%	4.00	3.69	0.6	0.6	6.1	9.3	186.0	12	10	22.1%	8.3%	3.58	3.62	3.1	3.2	48.1	66.2
9	Jacob deGrom	33.0	1	1	25.6%	5.4%	2.73	3.78	0.6	1.0	10.8	13.5	142.0	8	6	29.8%	5.3%	3.17	3.24	3.4	3.3	45.9	65.7
10	Pablo López	21.2	2	1	22.5%	4.5%	2.08	2.99	0.6	0.5	9.8	13.5	168.2	12	9	24.8%	5.9%	3.58	3.49	3.3	2.5	46.6	65.5

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	34.2	3	2	28.8%	3.6%	2.34	2.42	1.2	1.3	15.3	23.4	194.2	15	9	28.8%	5.0%	2.77	2.69	5.8	5.4	74.7	113.8
2	Garrett Crochet	44.0	3	2	28.6%	10.3%	2.05	2.63	1.3	1.5	20.0	29.2	175.0	13	8	30.3%	8.8%	2.78	2.81	5.1	4.9	68.1	100.9
3	Hunter Brown	37.0	4	1	29.9%	5.2%	1.22	1.84	1.5	1.9	21.5	32.4	174.0	14	8	26.0%	7.6%	3.05	3.17	4.2	4.1	60.4	86.1
4	Max Fried	37.2	5	0	21.0%	5.7%	1.43	2.97	0.9	1.3	21.1	27.5	180.2	15	7	21.9%	6.6%	2.99	3.47	3.6	3.8	61.8	82.5
5	Cole Ragans	30.2	1	1	35.9%	7.0%	4.40	2.75	0.9	0.3	5.9	11.9	173.2	10	8	29.2%	8.5%	3.68	3.30	3.9	3.0	47.0	70.1
6	Drew Rasmussen	25.2	1	1	27.8%	6.2%	2.10	2.30	0.8	1.0	10.5	16.8	142.2	9	6	24.7%	6.2%	3.09	3.12	2.9	2.7	45.6	67.5
7	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.16	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.5	138.1	8	6	28.8%	5.6%	3.12	3.12	3.1	2.9	45.2	66.4
8	Framber Valdez	36.0	1	3	20.9%	8.8%	4.00	3.69	0.6	0.6	6.1	9.3	186.0	12	10	22.1%	8.3%	3.58	3.62	3.1	3.2	48.1	66.2
9	Jacob deGrom	33.0	1	1	25.6%	5.4%	2.73	3.78	0.6	1.0	10.8	13.5	142.0	8	6	29.8%	5.3%	3.17	3.24	3.4	3.3	45.9	65.7
10	Pablo López	21.2	2	1	22.5%	4.5%	2.08	2.99	0.6	0.5	9.8	13.5	168.2	12	9	24.8%	5.9%	3.58	3.49	3.3	2.5	46.6	65.5

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	37.2	3	2	27.5%	2.8%	2.39	1.75	1.6	1.2	15.7	27.2	180.2	13	8	29.0%	5.9%	2.84	2.59	5.7	5.1	67.3	105.7
2	Logan Webb	41.1	3	2	29.9%	6.6%	2.83	1.77	1.5	1.1	15.7	28.2	204.1	14	10	23.4%	5.7%	3.13	2.77	5.0	4.5	64.9	104.3
3	Zack Wheeler	44.0	2	1	32.8%	5.2%	3.48	3.31	1.0	1.1	12.7	18.5	210.0	13	8	27.9%	6.1%	3.34	3.33	5.0	4.8	63.7	91.0
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	34.0	3	2	32.6%	8.3%	1.06	2.29	1.2	1.6	20.3	28.7	167.0	13	8	27.7%	6.9%	2.86	3.08	4.2	4.3	62.0	88.4
5	Chris Sale	28.1	1	2	27.3%	6.8%	5.40	3.64	0.5	0.0	1.8	4.5	174.1	12	8	29.1%	6.6%	3.51	3.17	3.8	3.5	52.4	78.2
6	Michael King	33.0	3	1	29.6%	8.1%	2.18	2.93	1.0	1.2	15.5	21.3	178.0	13	8	26.8%	8.6%	3.24	3.51	3.8	4.0	57.9	77.4
7	Clay Holmes	30.2	3	1	27.5%	9.9%	2.64	2.20	1.0	0.7	12.9	20.8	166.2	14	8	23.3%	9.0%	3.29	3.19	3.3	2.8	52.9	77.2
8	Nick Pivetta	35.1	5	1	29.3%	6.0%	1.78	2.29	1.3	1.6	19.6	28.3	171.1	14	9	28.3%	7.2%	3.36	3.49	3.5	3.7	55.3	74.4
9	MacKenzie Gore	41.0	2	3	35.8%	5.5%	3.51	2.52	1.3	0.9	12.4	21.4	179.0	11	11	28.9%	7.8%	3.62	3.36	3.7	3.4	50.0	72.6
10	Spencer Schwellenbach	37.2	1	2	22.0%	4.0%	2.87	3.27	0.7	1.0	11.1	16.3	184.2	11	9	23.0%	5.2%	3.46	3.51	3.3	3.7	49.7	70.1

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	37.2	3	2	27.5%	2.8%	2.39	1.75	1.6	1.2	15.7	27.2	180.2	13	8	29.0%	5.9%	2.84	2.59	5.7	5.1	67.3	105.7
2	Logan Webb	41.1	3	2	29.9%	6.6%	2.83	1.77	1.5	1.1	15.7	28.2	204.1	14	10	23.4%	5.7%	3.13	2.77	5.0	4.5	64.9	104.3
3	Zack Wheeler	44.0	2	1	32.8%	5.2%	3.48	3.31	1.0	1.1	12.7	18.5	210.0	13	8	27.9%	6.1%	3.34	3.33	5.0	4.8	63.7	91.0
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	34.0	3	2	32.6%	8.3%	1.06	2.29	1.2	1.6	20.3	28.7	167.0	13	8	27.7%	6.9%	2.86	3.08	4.2	4.3	62.0	88.4
5	Chris Sale	28.1	1	2	27.3%	6.8%	5.40	3.64	0.5	0.0	1.8	4.5	174.1	12	8	29.1%	6.6%	3.51	3.17	3.8	3.5	52.4	78.2
6	Michael King	33.0	3	1	29.6%	8.1%	2.18	2.93	1.0	1.2	15.5	21.3	178.0	13	8	26.8%	8.6%	3.24	3.51	3.8	4.0	57.9	77.4
7	Clay Holmes	30.2	3	1	27.5%	9.9%	2.64	2.20	1.0	0.7	12.9	20.8	166.2	14	8	23.3%	9.0%	3.29	3.19	3.3	2.8	52.9	77.2
8	Nick Pivetta	35.1	5	1	29.3%	6.0%	1.78	2.29	1.3	1.6	19.6	28.3	171.1	14	9	28.3%	7.2%	3.36	3.49	3.5	3.7	55.3	74.4
9	MacKenzie Gore	41.0	2	3	35.8%	5.5%	3.51	2.52	1.3	0.9	12.4	21.4	179.0	11	11	28.9%	7.8%	3.62	3.36	3.7	3.4	50.0	72.6
10	Spencer Schwellenbach	37.2	1	2	22.0%	4.0%	2.87	3.27	0.7	1.0	11.1	16.3	184.2	11	9	23.0%	5.2%	3.46	3.51	3.3	3.7	49.7	70.1

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG