Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• Simply based on the way the schedules lined up, it looks like there are a ton of teams who have a pair of easy opponents next week: the A’s, Cardinals, Marlins, Pirates and Rockies all look like they’ve got easily exploitable matchups. The problem is that those teams don’t have completely trustworthy starting rotations to begin with, which means there are still some risky plays despite the opponents.
• I’d be comfortable starting anyone from the Marlins rotation in their series against the Rockies and A’s and they’ll also need callup fill-ins for two spot starts next week. It probably won’t be Braxton Garrett as he’s still working back from his shoulder injury, but keep an eye on his progress as Miami might activate him off the IL early to make one of those starts next week.
• This is one of the few opportunities to go ahead and start any Rockies starters you might be rostering since they’re on the road playing two weak offenses (but let’s be honest, that’s probably not likely). I actually think Ryan Feltner is a sneaky streaming play since he has a two-start week and has been pretty decent this year.
• On the flip side, the Giants and Mariners have two pretty tough matchups on the docket next week. San Francisco travels to Boston and Philadelphia and Logan Webb seems like the only matchup-proof starter in their rotation (and he has a double-start week too). The Mariners have the harder task of hosting the Braves and then traveling to Houston. Their cadre of aces have been absolutely dominant recently, but it’s a tall ask to face two of the best offenses in baseball.

Year three of the Ottoneu Prestige League is off to a great start and with the new rules for 2024, late April is suddenly a very interesting time. For the first time, OPL is giving managers a chance to re-shape their roster in the middle of a round.

For those new to OPL, it’s a best-ball competition open to any team that finished in the top half of a standard Ottoneu league the year before. One of the unique rules, though, is that your roster for OPL locks at the start of each round – any adds, drops, or trades you make after that don’t impact your OPL roster.

But this morning, at 4 a.m. ET, all OPL rosters were re-set. Any adds, drops and trades processed over the last few weeks since Opening Day will be reflected in your OPL roster. And that has created a bit of a learning opportunity.

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The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As we have done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

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The number of pitching injuries haven’t let up yet and it feels like everyone is looking for starting pitching to help out their rosters. Here’s a trio of pitchers who are rostered in under 10% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be useful pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or two.

Because he’s spent his career pitching in Oakland, Paul Blackburn’s success has gone quietly unnoticed. He’s also dealt with a myriad of injuries and has surpassed 20 starts in a season just twice in his eight-year career. Still, over the past three seasons, he’s compiled a 3.95 FIP with a decent strikeout-to-walk ratio and some excellent contact management. This year, it took him four starts to finally allow his first run of the season. He’s dramatically reduced the usage of his sinker and is now throwing all six of the pitches in his repertoire between 20% and 10% of the time. His cutter is now technically his primary pitch and the effectiveness of that pitch has increased this year thanks to slightly higher velocity and horizontal movement.

In Mitchell Parker’s debut, he held the Dodgers to just two runs in five innings. In his second start in the big leagues, he held the Astros scoreless over seven innings. Those are two of the best lineups in baseball and Parker carved through them. He only throws his fastball in the low-90s, but his over-the-top delivery creates natural carry with the pitch. And when he pairs it with his 12-to-6 curveball, it becomes a deadly pitch pair. He’s also added a splitter to his repertoire recently and his scouting report says he also throws a slider. He’s survived his first two starts with some pretty good batted ball luck and his profile that of an up-and-down back-end starter. With the new splitter and improved command, it’s possible he’s raised his ceiling a bit, but I’d be wary of paying too much to roster him at this point.

Albert Suárez’s story is a fun one. He pitched for the Giants in limited action way back in 2016 and 2017, bounced around in Japan and Korea for five years and finally signed a minor league contract with the Orioles this offseason. He had a great spring training and finally got the call up to make a spot start last Wednesday. He held the Twins scoreless over 5.2 innings in his first big league action in seven years and then held the Angels scoreless over another 5.2 innings in his second start yesterday. His calling card is a mid-90s fastball with plenty of carry that he can command at the top of the zone. Batters have swung and missed on nearly 20% of the heater’s he’s thrown in his two starts so far. That’s a ridiculous whiff rate, especially for a fastball. His repertoire is rounded out with a changeup and cutter, both of which are returning decent results so far. With the Orioles dealing with plenty of injuries in their starting rotation, it’s likely that Suárez will get a long run of starts to prove he can stick in the majors for good.

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Braves and Rays look like they have pretty easy schedules next week. Tampa hosts the Tigers before traveling to face the hapless White Sox next weekend while Atlanta hosts the Marlins and Guardians. The Giants also have six games at home next week which should be a boon to their starting rotation.
• On the other hand, the Reds and Guardians have tough slates next week. Cincinnati hosts the Phillies before heading out to face the Rangers on the road while Cleveland hosts the Red Sox and then travel to Atlanta over the weekend.
• The Astros have a weird week with two off days and just five games including two in Colorado next weekend.
• The Phillies might activate Taijuan Walker from the IL next week. Keep an eye on their rotation to see how they handle his activation while allowing Spencer Turnbull to continue his hot start to the season.
• The Red Sox will need to make a roster move to find a fill in for the injured Garrett Whitlock on Sunday. Right now, Naoyuki Uwasawa is listed on the Probables Grid. In addition, Boston used Cooper Criswell as a bulk reliever behind an opener yesterday. If they continue that pattern next week, make sure he’s in the right SP or RP slot in your lineup depending on how the Sox deploy him.

One of the interesting challenges with a 40-man roster in Ottoneu is figuring out the best way to use that depth. Having 18 bench spots means you can carry a deep roster of MLB talent, a bunch of upside players, or anything in between. Which means that you, almost inevitably, have players on your roster that you just aren’t using.

Ottoneu’s Team Production page is a great way to figure out who you aren’t using and start to make some decisions about how to handle those players.

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The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As Chad Young has done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Read the rest of this entry »

Monday afternoon, Niv Shah announced a new feature on Ottoneu’s Six Picks: The Big Board. This is a super fun feature and it is a good excuse to do something I haven’t done since last April: Write about Six Picks.

When I wrote about Six Picks last year, I noted that it is “free, simple and fun” and that I don’t exactly play to win – I play to have fun. But there is a second reason (and one which the Big Board helps) I play and look at Six Picks daily: I think it makes me a better fantasy player.

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Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »