Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	34.2	3	2	28.8%	3.6%	2.34	2.42	1.2	1.3	15.3	23.4	193.2	14	10	28.4%	5.4%	2.83	2.92	5.3	5.0	71.9	106.0
2	Garrett Crochet	44.0	3	2	28.6%	10.3%	2.05	2.63	1.3	1.5	20.0	29.2	185.0	13	9	30.6%	8.7%	2.87	2.89	5.1	5.1	69.3	102.4
3	Hunter Brown	37.0	4	1	29.9%	5.2%	1.22	1.84	1.5	1.9	21.5	32.4	176.0	13	9	26.2%	7.7%	3.07	3.25	4.2	4.1	59.7	84.2
4	Max Fried	37.2	5	0	21.0%	5.7%	1.43	2.97	0.9	1.3	21.1	27.5	181.2	15	7	22.1%	6.6%	3.02	3.51	3.5	3.7	61.6	81.7
5	Jacob deGrom	33.0	1	1	25.6%	5.4%	2.73	3.78	0.6	1.0	10.8	13.5	155.0	10	7	30.0%	5.3%	3.08	3.18	4.0	3.8	53.1	75.8
6	Cole Ragans	30.2	1	1	35.9%	7.0%	4.40	2.75	0.9	0.3	5.9	11.9	176.2	11	9	29.4%	8.8%	3.57	3.31	4.0	3.3	51.0	74.3
7	Nathan Eovaldi	36.2	2	2	27.1%	2.1%	2.21	2.64	1.0	1.1	15.1	22.7	180.2	11	10	24.1%	5.5%	3.39	3.48	3.5	3.3	51.1	71.6
8	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.16	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.5	139.1	8	7	29.0%	5.5%	3.10	3.09	3.2	2.9	45.9	67.7
9	Pablo López	21.2	2	1	22.5%	4.5%	2.08	2.99	0.6	0.5	9.8	13.5	171.2	11	9	24.6%	5.9%	3.46	3.50	3.4	2.8	48.3	67.4
10	Framber Valdez	36.0	1	3	20.9%	8.8%	4.00	3.69	0.6	0.6	6.1	9.3	187.0	11	11	22.3%	8.2%	3.61	3.60	3.3	3.0	46.8	65.5

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	34.2	3	2	28.8%	3.6%	2.34	2.42	1.2	1.3	15.3	23.4	193.2	14	10	28.4%	5.4%	2.83	2.92	5.3	5.0	71.9	106.0
2	Garrett Crochet	44.0	3	2	28.6%	10.3%	2.05	2.63	1.3	1.5	20.0	29.2	185.0	13	9	30.6%	8.7%	2.87	2.89	5.1	5.1	69.3	102.4
3	Hunter Brown	37.0	4	1	29.9%	5.2%	1.22	1.84	1.5	1.9	21.5	32.4	176.0	13	9	26.2%	7.7%	3.07	3.25	4.2	4.1	59.7	84.2
4	Max Fried	37.2	5	0	21.0%	5.7%	1.43	2.97	0.9	1.3	21.1	27.5	181.2	15	7	22.1%	6.6%	3.02	3.51	3.5	3.7	61.6	81.7
5	Jacob deGrom	33.0	1	1	25.6%	5.4%	2.73	3.78	0.6	1.0	10.8	13.5	155.0	10	7	30.0%	5.3%	3.08	3.18	4.0	3.8	53.1	75.8
6	Cole Ragans	30.2	1	1	35.9%	7.0%	4.40	2.75	0.9	0.3	5.9	11.9	176.2	11	9	29.4%	8.8%	3.57	3.31	4.0	3.3	51.0	74.3
7	Nathan Eovaldi	36.2	2	2	27.1%	2.1%	2.21	2.64	1.0	1.1	15.1	22.7	180.2	11	10	24.1%	5.5%	3.39	3.48	3.5	3.3	51.1	71.6
8	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.16	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.5	139.1	8	7	29.0%	5.5%	3.10	3.09	3.2	2.9	45.9	67.7
9	Pablo López	21.2	2	1	22.5%	4.5%	2.08	2.99	0.6	0.5	9.8	13.5	171.2	11	9	24.6%	5.9%	3.46	3.50	3.4	2.8	48.3	67.4
10	Framber Valdez	36.0	1	3	20.9%	8.8%	4.00	3.69	0.6	0.6	6.1	9.3	187.0	11	11	22.3%	8.2%	3.61	3.60	3.3	3.0	46.8	65.5

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	37.2	3	2	27.5%	2.8%	2.39	1.75	1.6	1.2	15.7	27.2	191.2	14	9	29.9%	6.0%	2.72	2.50	6.3	5.8	74.6	117.3
2	Logan Webb	41.1	3	2	29.9%	6.6%	2.83	1.77	1.5	1.1	15.7	28.2	204.1	13	11	23.3%	5.9%	3.22	2.87	4.7	4.1	61.9	98.8
3	Zack Wheeler	44.0	2	1	32.8%	5.2%	3.48	3.31	1.0	1.1	12.7	18.5	207.0	13	9	28.1%	6.2%	3.35	3.40	4.8	4.8	63.1	88.3
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	34.0	3	2	32.6%	8.3%	1.06	2.29	1.2	1.6	20.3	28.7	165.0	12	8	27.5%	7.3%	2.89	3.15	4.0	4.2	60.0	84.8
5	Chris Sale	28.1	1	2	27.3%	6.8%	5.40	3.64	0.5	0.0	1.8	4.5	177.1	12	9	29.3%	6.7%	3.50	3.12	3.9	3.7	53.3	80.4
6	MacKenzie Gore	41.0	2	3	35.8%	5.5%	3.51	2.52	1.3	0.9	12.4	21.4	184.0	11	11	29.4%	8.0%	3.52	3.41	3.8	3.8	53.3	75.7
7	Sonny Gray	35.0	3	0	23.9%	5.1%	3.60	3.82	0.5	0.8	9.8	12.4	186.0	13	8	25.1%	6.5%	3.48	3.51	3.4	3.7	53.2	73.8
8	Michael King	33.0	3	1	29.6%	8.1%	2.18	2.93	1.0	1.2	15.5	21.3	179.0	12	9	26.5%	8.7%	3.32	3.61	3.6	3.7	55.3	72.9
9	Nick Pivetta	35.1	5	1	29.3%	6.0%	1.78	2.29	1.3	1.6	19.6	28.3	171.1	14	9	27.8%	7.6%	3.36	3.57	3.4	3.7	55.1	72.8
10	Jesús Luzardo	36.1	3	0	28.3%	6.9%	1.73	2.01	1.4	1.4	18.3	28.3	177.1	12	8	25.6%	8.0%	3.40	3.58	3.4	3.5	52.6	70.6

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	37.2	3	2	27.5%	2.8%	2.39	1.75	1.6	1.2	15.7	27.2	191.2	14	9	29.9%	6.0%	2.72	2.50	6.3	5.8	74.6	117.3
2	Logan Webb	41.1	3	2	29.9%	6.6%	2.83	1.77	1.5	1.1	15.7	28.2	204.1	13	11	23.3%	5.9%	3.22	2.87	4.7	4.1	61.9	98.8
3	Zack Wheeler	44.0	2	1	32.8%	5.2%	3.48	3.31	1.0	1.1	12.7	18.5	207.0	13	9	28.1%	6.2%	3.35	3.40	4.8	4.8	63.1	88.3
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	34.0	3	2	32.6%	8.3%	1.06	2.29	1.2	1.6	20.3	28.7	165.0	12	8	27.5%	7.3%	2.89	3.15	4.0	4.2	60.0	84.8
5	Chris Sale	28.1	1	2	27.3%	6.8%	5.40	3.64	0.5	0.0	1.8	4.5	177.1	12	9	29.3%	6.7%	3.50	3.12	3.9	3.7	53.3	80.4
6	MacKenzie Gore	41.0	2	3	35.8%	5.5%	3.51	2.52	1.3	0.9	12.4	21.4	184.0	11	11	29.4%	8.0%	3.52	3.41	3.8	3.8	53.3	75.7
7	Sonny Gray	35.0	3	0	23.9%	5.1%	3.60	3.82	0.5	0.8	9.8	12.4	186.0	13	8	25.1%	6.5%	3.48	3.51	3.4	3.7	53.2	73.8
8	Michael King	33.0	3	1	29.6%	8.1%	2.18	2.93	1.0	1.2	15.5	21.3	179.0	12	9	26.5%	8.7%	3.32	3.61	3.6	3.7	55.3	72.9
9	Nick Pivetta	35.1	5	1	29.3%	6.0%	1.78	2.29	1.3	1.6	19.6	28.3	171.1	14	9	27.8%	7.6%	3.36	3.57	3.4	3.7	55.1	72.8
10	Jesús Luzardo	36.1	3	0	28.3%	6.9%	1.73	2.01	1.4	1.4	18.3	28.3	177.1	12	8	25.6%	8.0%	3.40	3.58	3.4	3.5	52.6	70.6

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG