Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	102.0	9	2	32.1%	3.3%	2.29	2.11	3.8	3.8	46.5	73.6	200.0	16	6	30.7%	4.4%	2.52	2.49	6.6	6.5	84.0	128.7
2	Garrett Crochet	109.1	7	4	31.3%	7.2%	2.06	2.53	3.4	4.3	50.2	74.2	197.1	13	8	31.4%	7.2%	2.46	2.70	5.9	6.7	82.4	121.9
3	Max Fried	108.0	10	2	24.5%	4.9%	1.92	2.74	2.9	3.9	51.4	72.5	203.0	17	7	23.9%	5.6%	2.53	3.09	4.9	5.7	81.1	113.0
4	Hunter Brown	98.0	8	3	32.1%	7.6%	1.74	2.68	2.9	4.6	49.8	69.7	188.0	14	8	29.3%	7.9%	2.59	3.06	4.8	6.2	75.8	105.9
5	Jacob deGrom	95.1	8	2	25.9%	5.5%	2.08	3.02	2.4	4.0	43.1	58.7	176.1	13	6	27.6%	5.3%	2.60	3.04	4.5	5.8	69.3	97.8
6	Framber Valdez	103.0	8	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.88	3.04	2.5	3.2	36.7	53.4	201.0	14	9	23.8%	8.5%	3.18	3.30	4.4	4.9	63.1	89.9
7	Kris Bubic	91.0	6	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.18	2.52	2.9	3.3	39.1	59.1	179.0	11	10	24.8%	7.7%	2.87	3.12	4.4	4.9	61.8	89.2
8	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	156.1	9	8	25.5%	5.1%	2.65	3.05	3.9	4.6	57.2	82.3
9	Carlos Rodón	101.2	9	5	29.7%	8.5%	2.92	3.49	1.9	2.5	38.7	50.2	192.2	15	10	28.8%	8.2%	3.32	3.69	3.5	3.8	62.8	80.2
10	Joe Ryan	91.1	8	3	29.1%	5.6%	2.86	3.21	2.1	2.7	35.1	48.2	176.1	13	8	28.1%	5.6%	3.27	3.45	3.9	4.1	57.1	77.6

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	102.0	9	2	32.1%	3.3%	2.29	2.11	3.8	3.8	46.5	73.6	200.0	16	6	30.7%	4.4%	2.52	2.49	6.6	6.5	84.0	128.7
2	Garrett Crochet	109.1	7	4	31.3%	7.2%	2.06	2.53	3.4	4.3	50.2	74.2	197.1	13	8	31.4%	7.2%	2.46	2.70	5.9	6.7	82.4	121.9
3	Max Fried	108.0	10	2	24.5%	4.9%	1.92	2.74	2.9	3.9	51.4	72.5	203.0	17	7	23.9%	5.6%	2.53	3.09	4.9	5.7	81.1	113.0
4	Hunter Brown	98.0	8	3	32.1%	7.6%	1.74	2.68	2.9	4.6	49.8	69.7	188.0	14	8	29.3%	7.9%	2.59	3.06	4.8	6.2	75.8	105.9
5	Jacob deGrom	95.1	8	2	25.9%	5.5%	2.08	3.02	2.4	4.0	43.1	58.7	176.1	13	6	27.6%	5.3%	2.60	3.04	4.5	5.8	69.3	97.8
6	Framber Valdez	103.0	8	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.88	3.04	2.5	3.2	36.7	53.4	201.0	14	9	23.8%	8.5%	3.18	3.30	4.4	4.9	63.1	89.9
7	Kris Bubic	91.0	6	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.18	2.52	2.9	3.3	39.1	59.1	179.0	11	10	24.8%	7.7%	2.87	3.12	4.4	4.9	61.8	89.2
8	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	156.1	9	8	25.5%	5.1%	2.65	3.05	3.9	4.6	57.2	82.3
9	Carlos Rodón	101.2	9	5	29.7%	8.5%	2.92	3.49	1.9	2.5	38.7	50.2	192.2	15	10	28.8%	8.2%	3.32	3.69	3.5	3.8	62.8	80.2
10	Joe Ryan	91.1	8	3	29.1%	5.6%	2.86	3.21	2.1	2.7	35.1	48.2	176.1	13	8	28.1%	5.6%	3.27	3.45	3.9	4.1	57.1	77.6

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	106.0	4	7	26.9%	7.1%	2.12	2.49	3.4	4.2	43.0	66.7	200.0	10	12	27.9%	7.2%	2.52	2.73	6.1	6.9	76.1	115.4
2	Logan Webb	107.1	7	5	27.7%	5.3%	2.52	2.24	3.4	3.2	42.7	69.7	208.1	13	10	25.2%	5.4%	2.85	2.71	5.5	5.2	72.6	114.1
3	Zack Wheeler	99.0	7	3	32.9%	6.5%	2.55	2.66	3.0	3.6	41.1	61.3	198.0	14	8	30.3%	6.5%	2.82	3.00	5.5	6.0	74.8	107.7
4	Cristopher Sánchez	93.2	6	2	26.6%	7.2%	2.79	2.94	2.4	3.0	34.1	50.4	183.2	12	7	24.9%	7.1%	2.99	3.20	4.3	5.0	61.7	88.3
5	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.65	2.5	3.0	36.1	54.4	146.1	9	7	30.6%	6.8%	2.71	2.85	3.9	4.5	56.6	83.4
6	MacKenzie Gore	99.0	3	8	31.8%	7.4%	3.09	2.91	2.8	2.9	31.4	48.9	187.0	9	13	29.7%	8.0%	3.27	3.28	4.5	4.7	57.4	82.7
7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	89.2	7	6	28.4%	8.7%	2.61	3.23	2.0	2.8	35.9	48.6	172.2	13	10	27.2%	8.0%	3.02	3.37	3.8	4.4	60.4	82.1
8	Spencer Schwellenbach	103.2	6	4	23.5%	4.2%	3.21	3.40	1.8	2.1	30.4	43.1	201.2	12	9	23.4%	4.8%	3.39	3.50	3.6	4.0	55.8	78.3
9	Robbie Ray	92.1	8	2	27.6%	9.5%	2.83	3.26	1.7	2.4	35.6	48.3	177.1	13	7	26.9%	9.0%	3.30	3.57	2.8	3.6	56.5	74.9
10	Ranger Suárez	65.0	6	2	23.0%	6.3%	2.08	2.84	1.9	2.7	29.4	41.4	152.0	12	7	22.5%	6.9%	2.84	3.38	3.5	4.4	53.9	72.9

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	106.0	4	7	26.9%	7.1%	2.12	2.49	3.4	4.2	43.0	66.7	200.0	10	12	27.9%	7.2%	2.52	2.73	6.1	6.9	76.1	115.4
2	Logan Webb	107.1	7	5	27.7%	5.3%	2.52	2.24	3.4	3.2	42.7	69.7	208.1	13	10	25.2%	5.4%	2.85	2.71	5.5	5.2	72.6	114.1
3	Zack Wheeler	99.0	7	3	32.9%	6.5%	2.55	2.66	3.0	3.6	41.1	61.3	198.0	14	8	30.3%	6.5%	2.82	3.00	5.5	6.0	74.8	107.7
4	Cristopher Sánchez	93.2	6	2	26.6%	7.2%	2.79	2.94	2.4	3.0	34.1	50.4	183.2	12	7	24.9%	7.1%	2.99	3.20	4.3	5.0	61.7	88.3
5	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.65	2.5	3.0	36.1	54.4	146.1	9	7	30.6%	6.8%	2.71	2.85	3.9	4.5	56.6	83.4
6	MacKenzie Gore	99.0	3	8	31.8%	7.4%	3.09	2.91	2.8	2.9	31.4	48.9	187.0	9	13	29.7%	8.0%	3.27	3.28	4.5	4.7	57.4	82.7
7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	89.2	7	6	28.4%	8.7%	2.61	3.23	2.0	2.8	35.9	48.6	172.2	13	10	27.2%	8.0%	3.02	3.37	3.8	4.4	60.4	82.1
8	Spencer Schwellenbach	103.2	6	4	23.5%	4.2%	3.21	3.40	1.8	2.1	30.4	43.1	201.2	12	9	23.4%	4.8%	3.39	3.50	3.6	4.0	55.8	78.3
9	Robbie Ray	92.1	8	2	27.6%	9.5%	2.83	3.26	1.7	2.4	35.6	48.3	177.1	13	7	26.9%	9.0%	3.30	3.57	2.8	3.6	56.5	74.9
10	Ranger Suárez	65.0	6	2	23.0%	6.3%	2.08	2.84	1.9	2.7	29.4	41.4	152.0	12	7	22.5%	6.9%	2.84	3.38	3.5	4.4	53.9	72.9

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG