Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	171.2	12	6	31.0%	6.2%	2.04	2.62	5.4	6.7	79.8	115.6	196.2	14	7	30.4%	6.4%	2.20	2.78	5.9	7.3	88.0	125.5
2	Dylan Cease	156.1	10	5	35.5%	10.5%	2.25	2.41	5.4	5.7	71.3	107.7	180.1	12	6	34.8%	10.4%	2.40	2.59	6.0	6.2	79.4	117.6
3	Parker Messick	161.0	11	8	25.3%	6.8%	2.46	3.06	4.3	5.8	63.6	89.3	186.0	13	9	24.9%	6.9%	2.66	3.21	4.7	6.2	69.5	96.3
4	Drew Rasmussen	146.1	14	5	26.0%	4.7%	2.95	2.91	4.1	4.5	54.1	79.9	169.1	16	6	25.7%	4.9%	3.03	3.06	4.6	5.0	60.9	88.0
5	Sonny Gray	143.2	16	4	21.8%	6.3%	2.82	3.55	2.7	5.0	55.6	70.8	165.2	17	5	22.1%	6.3%	2.93	3.62	3.2	5.5	60.8	77.0
6	Reid Detmers	162.0	4	8	28.0%	6.8%	3.44	3.10	4.1	3.9	41.2	66.4	187.0	5	9	27.7%	6.9%	3.47	3.20	4.6	4.3	47.4	74.3
7	Gavin Williams	163.0	13	7	33.0%	7.6%	3.81	3.58	2.9	3.0	47.2	63.9	187.0	15	8	32.3%	7.8%	3.80	3.63	3.4	3.4	54.0	72.1
8	Logan Gilbert	160.1	11	8	26.0%	6.3%	3.42	3.65	2.8	3.7	46.8	61.9	185.1	13	9	25.9%	6.2%	3.45	3.66	3.3	4.1	53.9	71.2
9	Jacob deGrom	137.1	10	9	29.8%	6.6%	4.00	3.08	3.7	2.6	34.4	56.0	159.1	12	10	29.8%	6.6%	3.90	3.16	4.3	3.1	42.1	65.8
10	Payton Tolle	131.0	8	6	27.7%	7.0%	3.23	3.28	3.3	3.5	41.2	59.0	153.0	9	7	27.4%	7.1%	3.29	3.40	3.7	4.0	46.5	65.1

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	171.2	12	6	31.0%	6.2%	2.04	2.62	5.4	6.7	79.8	115.6	196.2	14	7	30.4%	6.4%	2.20	2.78	5.9	7.3	88.0	125.5
2	Dylan Cease	156.1	10	5	35.5%	10.5%	2.25	2.41	5.4	5.7	71.3	107.7	180.1	12	6	34.8%	10.4%	2.40	2.59	6.0	6.2	79.4	117.6
3	Parker Messick	161.0	11	8	25.3%	6.8%	2.46	3.06	4.3	5.8	63.6	89.3	186.0	13	9	24.9%	6.9%	2.66	3.21	4.7	6.2	69.5	96.3
4	Drew Rasmussen	146.1	14	5	26.0%	4.7%	2.95	2.91	4.1	4.5	54.1	79.9	169.1	16	6	25.7%	4.9%	3.03	3.06	4.6	5.0	60.9	88.0
5	Sonny Gray	143.2	16	4	21.8%	6.3%	2.82	3.55	2.7	5.0	55.6	70.8	165.2	17	5	22.1%	6.3%	2.93	3.62	3.2	5.5	60.8	77.0
6	Reid Detmers	162.0	4	8	28.0%	6.8%	3.44	3.10	4.1	3.9	41.2	66.4	187.0	5	9	27.7%	6.9%	3.47	3.20	4.6	4.3	47.4	74.3
7	Gavin Williams	163.0	13	7	33.0%	7.6%	3.81	3.58	2.9	3.0	47.2	63.9	187.0	15	8	32.3%	7.8%	3.80	3.63	3.4	3.4	54.0	72.1
8	Logan Gilbert	160.1	11	8	26.0%	6.3%	3.42	3.65	2.8	3.7	46.8	61.9	185.1	13	9	25.9%	6.2%	3.45	3.66	3.3	4.1	53.9	71.2
9	Jacob deGrom	137.1	10	9	29.8%	6.6%	4.00	3.08	3.7	2.6	34.4	56.0	159.1	12	10	29.8%	6.6%	3.90	3.16	4.3	3.1	42.1	65.8
10	Payton Tolle	131.0	8	6	27.7%	7.0%	3.23	3.28	3.3	3.5	41.2	59.0	153.0	9	7	27.4%	7.1%	3.29	3.40	3.7	4.0	46.5	65.1

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	155.0	14	5	38.3%	6.6%	1.97	2.27	5.6	6.0	80.2	118.6	179.0	16	6	37.4%	7.0%	2.11	2.46	6.2	6.6	89.3	129.9
2	Cristopher Sánchez	175.1	16	4	27.8%	5.4%	2.52	2.58	5.7	6.1	74.9	112.2	202.1	18	5	27.5%	5.5%	2.58	2.66	6.5	6.9	84.2	125.5
3	Chris Sale	144.0	13	9	30.7%	4.9%	2.06	2.19	5.3	5.7	69.7	106.6	168.0	15	10	30.8%	5.1%	2.20	2.28	6.0	6.4	78.7	120.1
4	Jesús Luzardo	169.2	13	5	30.0%	7.3%	3.02	2.86	5.0	4.5	61.7	92.6	195.2	15	6	29.8%	7.3%	3.04	2.96	5.7	5.2	70.7	104.2
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	165.0	12	8	25.4%	6.0%	2.67	3.36	4.1	5.8	61.6	82.5	191.0	14	9	25.4%	6.1%	2.78	3.41	4.7	6.5	69.3	92.4
6	Chase Burns	145.1	15	3	28.9%	8.4%	2.79	3.14	4.2	4.5	59.8	81.8	162.1	16	4	28.8%	8.4%	2.88	3.20	4.6	4.9	64.3	87.8
7	Cade Cavalli	152.2	12	5	27.7%	7.2%	3.12	3.38	3.3	3.3	53.0	72.0	173.2	13	6	27.3%	7.3%	3.16	3.42	3.7	3.7	58.7	79.5
8	Eduardo Rodriguez	167.0	14	5	17.8%	8.0%	2.59	3.71	3.0	5.7	61.7	76.3	190.0	15	6	17.9%	8.0%	2.84	3.82	3.2	5.8	64.1	78.4
9	Nolan McLean	155.2	10	8	26.7%	9.5%	3.06	3.60	3.0	3.1	52.0	67.5	178.2	12	9	26.3%	9.4%	3.12	3.64	3.4	3.5	58.9	76.0
10	Paul Skenes	149.2	9	11	28.9%	7.1%	3.97	3.07	4.1	2.2	35.7	59.5	172.2	11	12	28.9%	7.2%	3.86	3.09	4.7	2.9	43.9	71.0

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	155.0	14	5	38.3%	6.6%	1.97	2.27	5.6	6.0	80.2	118.6	179.0	16	6	37.4%	7.0%	2.11	2.46	6.2	6.6	89.3	129.9
2	Cristopher Sánchez	175.1	16	4	27.8%	5.4%	2.52	2.58	5.7	6.1	74.9	112.2	202.1	18	5	27.5%	5.5%	2.58	2.66	6.5	6.9	84.2	125.5
3	Chris Sale	144.0	13	9	30.7%	4.9%	2.06	2.19	5.3	5.7	69.7	106.6	168.0	15	10	30.8%	5.1%	2.20	2.28	6.0	6.4	78.7	120.1
4	Jesús Luzardo	169.2	13	5	30.0%	7.3%	3.02	2.86	5.0	4.5	61.7	92.6	195.2	15	6	29.8%	7.3%	3.04	2.96	5.7	5.2	70.7	104.2
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	165.0	12	8	25.4%	6.0%	2.67	3.36	4.1	5.8	61.6	82.5	191.0	14	9	25.4%	6.1%	2.78	3.41	4.7	6.5	69.3	92.4
6	Chase Burns	145.1	15	3	28.9%	8.4%	2.79	3.14	4.2	4.5	59.8	81.8	162.1	16	4	28.8%	8.4%	2.88	3.20	4.6	4.9	64.3	87.8
7	Cade Cavalli	152.2	12	5	27.7%	7.2%	3.12	3.38	3.3	3.3	53.0	72.0	173.2	13	6	27.3%	7.3%	3.16	3.42	3.7	3.7	58.7	79.5
8	Eduardo Rodriguez	167.0	14	5	17.8%	8.0%	2.59	3.71	3.0	5.7	61.7	76.3	190.0	15	6	17.9%	8.0%	2.84	3.82	3.2	5.8	64.1	78.4
9	Nolan McLean	155.2	10	8	26.7%	9.5%	3.06	3.60	3.0	3.1	52.0	67.5	178.2	12	9	26.3%	9.4%	3.12	3.64	3.4	3.5	58.9	76.0
10	Paul Skenes	149.2	9	11	28.9%	7.1%	3.97	3.07	4.1	2.2	35.7	59.5	172.2	11	12	28.9%	7.2%	3.86	3.09	4.7	2.9	43.9	71.0

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG