Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Cam Schlittler | 171.2 | 12 | 6 | 31.0% | 6.2% | 2.04 | 2.62 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 79.8 | 115.6 | 192.2 | 13 | 7 | 30.6% | 6.4% | 2.20 | 2.73 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 85.7 | 123.7 |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | 156.1 | 10 | 5 | 35.5% | 10.5% | 2.25 | 2.41 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 71.3 | 107.6 | 177.1 | 11 | 6 | 35.0% | 10.3% | 2.39 | 2.52 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 77.5 | 116.5 |
| 3 | Parker Messick | 167.0 | 11 | 9 | 26.1% | 6.8% | 2.53 | 3.11 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 64.8 | 90.5 | 188.0 | 12 | 10 | 25.7% | 6.8% | 2.68 | 3.19 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 69.3 | 96.7 |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | 153.1 | 14 | 5 | 26.1% | 4.5% | 2.88 | 2.91 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 57.3 | 84.3 | 173.1 | 15 | 6 | 25.8% | 4.7% | 2.96 | 3.00 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 62.3 | 91.2 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 150.2 | 17 | 4 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 2.69 | 3.49 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 60.8 | 77.7 | 169.2 | 18 | 5 | 22.3% | 6.5% | 2.81 | 3.52 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 65.2 | 83.6 |
| 6 | Gavin Williams | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 33.5% | 7.8% | 3.78 | 3.49 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 49.3 | 68.3 | 189.0 | 14 | 8 | 32.9% | 8.0% | 3.76 | 3.52 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 54.6 | 75.2 |
| 7 | Payton Tolle | 137.0 | 9 | 6 | 28.9% | 6.7% | 3.15 | 3.10 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 45.4 | 66.8 | 156.0 | 10 | 7 | 28.5% | 6.8% | 3.23 | 3.18 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 49.9 | 72.8 |
| 8 | Reid Detmers | 162.0 | 4 | 8 | 28.0% | 6.8% | 3.44 | 3.10 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 41.2 | 66.4 | 183.0 | 5 | 9 | 27.7% | 6.9% | 3.49 | 3.23 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 46.0 | 71.8 |
| 9 | Jacob deGrom | 143.1 | 10 | 9 | 29.9% | 6.5% | 3.96 | 3.19 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 36.1 | 57.0 | 162.1 | 11 | 10 | 29.8% | 6.5% | 3.88 | 3.18 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 41.9 | 65.6 |
| 10 | Sean Burke | 154.2 | 8 | 6 | 26.3% | 8.5% | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 47.0 | 61.6 | 174.2 | 9 | 7 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 3.35 | 3.79 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 50.0 | 63.7 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Cam Schlittler | 171.2 | 12 | 6 | 31.0% | 6.2% | 2.04 | 2.62 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 79.8 | 115.6 | 192.2 | 13 | 7 | 30.6% | 6.4% | 2.20 | 2.73 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 85.7 | 123.7 |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | 156.1 | 10 | 5 | 35.5% | 10.5% | 2.25 | 2.41 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 71.3 | 107.6 | 177.1 | 11 | 6 | 35.0% | 10.3% | 2.39 | 2.52 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 77.5 | 116.5 |
| 3 | Parker Messick | 167.0 | 11 | 9 | 26.1% | 6.8% | 2.53 | 3.11 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 64.8 | 90.5 | 188.0 | 12 | 10 | 25.7% | 6.8% | 2.68 | 3.19 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 69.3 | 96.7 |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | 153.1 | 14 | 5 | 26.1% | 4.5% | 2.88 | 2.91 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 57.3 | 84.3 | 173.1 | 15 | 6 | 25.8% | 4.7% | 2.96 | 3.00 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 62.3 | 91.2 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 150.2 | 17 | 4 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 2.69 | 3.49 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 60.8 | 77.7 | 169.2 | 18 | 5 | 22.3% | 6.5% | 2.81 | 3.52 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 65.2 | 83.6 |
| 6 | Gavin Williams | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 33.5% | 7.8% | 3.78 | 3.49 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 49.3 | 68.3 | 189.0 | 14 | 8 | 32.9% | 8.0% | 3.76 | 3.52 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 54.6 | 75.2 |
| 7 | Payton Tolle | 137.0 | 9 | 6 | 28.9% | 6.7% | 3.15 | 3.10 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 45.4 | 66.8 | 156.0 | 10 | 7 | 28.5% | 6.8% | 3.23 | 3.18 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 49.9 | 72.8 |
| 8 | Reid Detmers | 162.0 | 4 | 8 | 28.0% | 6.8% | 3.44 | 3.10 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 41.2 | 66.4 | 183.0 | 5 | 9 | 27.7% | 6.9% | 3.49 | 3.23 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 46.0 | 71.8 |
| 9 | Jacob deGrom | 143.1 | 10 | 9 | 29.9% | 6.5% | 3.96 | 3.19 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 36.1 | 57.0 | 162.1 | 11 | 10 | 29.8% | 6.5% | 3.88 | 3.18 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 41.9 | 65.6 |
| 10 | Sean Burke | 154.2 | 8 | 6 | 26.3% | 8.5% | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 47.0 | 61.6 | 174.2 | 9 | 7 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 3.35 | 3.79 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 50.0 | 63.7 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | 155.0 | 14 | 5 | 38.3% | 6.6% | 1.97 | 2.27 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 80.2 | 118.6 | 175.0 | 15 | 6 | 37.5% | 7.0% | 2.11 | 2.41 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 86.8 | 127.5 |
| 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | 181.1 | 16 | 5 | 27.5% | 5.6% | 2.58 | 2.59 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 75.4 | 113.8 | 204.1 | 18 | 6 | 27.3% | 5.7% | 2.64 | 2.68 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 83.3 | 124.5 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 150.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.6% | 4.8% | 2.10 | 2.26 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 72.4 | 109.7 | 171.0 | 15 | 10 | 30.7% | 5.0% | 2.21 | 2.36 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 79.5 | 120.2 |
| 4 | Jesús Luzardo | 169.2 | 13 | 5 | 30.0% | 7.3% | 3.02 | 2.86 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 61.7 | 92.6 | 191.2 | 15 | 6 | 29.8% | 7.4% | 3.05 | 2.98 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 69.3 | 101.6 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 165.0 | 12 | 8 | 25.4% | 6.0% | 2.67 | 3.36 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 61.6 | 82.4 | 187.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.3% | 6.1% | 2.74 | 3.38 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 68.9 | 92.3 |
| 6 | Chase Burns | 145.1 | 15 | 3 | 28.9% | 8.4% | 2.79 | 3.14 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 59.8 | 81.8 | 160.1 | 16 | 4 | 28.8% | 8.4% | 2.86 | 3.22 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 64.0 | 86.8 |
| 7 | Cade Cavalli | 158.2 | 12 | 5 | 27.9% | 6.9% | 3.12 | 3.29 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 54.8 | 76.1 | 176.2 | 13 | 6 | 27.6% | 7.0% | 3.16 | 3.36 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 59.7 | 82.1 |
| 8 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 173.0 | 15 | 5 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 2.55 | 3.75 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 65.3 | 79.7 | 193.0 | 16 | 6 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 2.75 | 3.87 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 67.9 | 81.5 |
| 9 | Nolan McLean | 161.2 | 11 | 8 | 26.7% | 9.7% | 3.06 | 3.57 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 54.7 | 71.4 | 181.2 | 12 | 9 | 26.4% | 9.6% | 3.12 | 3.62 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 59.8 | 77.6 |
| 10 | Paul Skenes | 155.0 | 10 | 11 | 28.3% | 7.0% | 3.83 | 3.08 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 39.6 | 64.0 | 175.0 | 11 | 12 | 28.3% | 7.1% | 3.75 | 3.13 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 45.9 | 72.6 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | 155.0 | 14 | 5 | 38.3% | 6.6% | 1.97 | 2.27 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 80.2 | 118.6 | 175.0 | 15 | 6 | 37.5% | 7.0% | 2.11 | 2.41 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 86.8 | 127.5 |
| 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | 181.1 | 16 | 5 | 27.5% | 5.6% | 2.58 | 2.59 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 75.4 | 113.8 | 204.1 | 18 | 6 | 27.3% | 5.7% | 2.64 | 2.68 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 83.3 | 124.5 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 150.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.6% | 4.8% | 2.10 | 2.26 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 72.4 | 109.7 | 171.0 | 15 | 10 | 30.7% | 5.0% | 2.21 | 2.36 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 79.5 | 120.2 |
| 4 | Jesús Luzardo | 169.2 | 13 | 5 | 30.0% | 7.3% | 3.02 | 2.86 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 61.7 | 92.6 | 191.2 | 15 | 6 | 29.8% | 7.4% | 3.05 | 2.98 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 69.3 | 101.6 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 165.0 | 12 | 8 | 25.4% | 6.0% | 2.67 | 3.36 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 61.6 | 82.4 | 187.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.3% | 6.1% | 2.74 | 3.38 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 68.9 | 92.3 |
| 6 | Chase Burns | 145.1 | 15 | 3 | 28.9% | 8.4% | 2.79 | 3.14 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 59.8 | 81.8 | 160.1 | 16 | 4 | 28.8% | 8.4% | 2.86 | 3.22 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 64.0 | 86.8 |
| 7 | Cade Cavalli | 158.2 | 12 | 5 | 27.9% | 6.9% | 3.12 | 3.29 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 54.8 | 76.1 | 176.2 | 13 | 6 | 27.6% | 7.0% | 3.16 | 3.36 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 59.7 | 82.1 |
| 8 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 173.0 | 15 | 5 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 2.55 | 3.75 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 65.3 | 79.7 | 193.0 | 16 | 6 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 2.75 | 3.87 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 67.9 | 81.5 |
| 9 | Nolan McLean | 161.2 | 11 | 8 | 26.7% | 9.7% | 3.06 | 3.57 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 54.7 | 71.4 | 181.2 | 12 | 9 | 26.4% | 9.6% | 3.12 | 3.62 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 59.8 | 77.6 |
| 10 | Paul Skenes | 155.0 | 10 | 11 | 28.3% | 7.0% | 3.83 | 3.08 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 39.6 | 64.0 | 175.0 | 11 | 12 | 28.3% | 7.1% | 3.75 | 3.13 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 45.9 | 72.6 |
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