Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	178.2	13	6	31.4%	6.0%	2.01	2.61	5.6	7.0	84.3	121.9	195.2	14	7	31.0%	6.2%	2.12	2.73	6.0	7.4	89.7	128.2
2	Dylan Cease	161.1	10	5	35.2%	10.4%	2.40	2.47	5.5	5.4	70.4	106.7	177.1	11	6	34.9%	10.3%	2.49	2.58	5.9	5.8	75.5	113.4
3	Parker Messick	172.1	11	9	26.0%	6.9%	2.51	3.11	4.5	6.0	67.0	93.6	188.1	12	10	25.8%	6.9%	2.63	3.21	4.8	6.3	70.6	97.6
4	Drew Rasmussen	160.1	14	5	25.6%	4.3%	2.81	2.88	4.6	5.2	60.2	89.1	176.1	15	6	25.5%	4.5%	2.86	2.98	4.9	5.5	64.8	94.5
5	Sonny Gray	156.2	17	5	22.0%	6.6%	2.76	3.46	3.2	5.6	61.3	79.5	171.2	18	6	22.2%	6.6%	2.83	3.51	3.5	5.9	65.3	84.3
6	Reid Detmers	168.0	5	8	28.4%	6.7%	3.32	3.03	4.4	4.3	46.1	73.5	185.0	6	9	28.3%	6.9%	3.36	3.12	4.8	4.6	50.5	78.8
7	Gavin Williams	169.0	13	7	33.5%	7.8%	3.78	3.49	3.2	3.1	49.3	68.3	184.0	14	8	33.0%	7.9%	3.77	3.55	3.5	3.3	53.6	72.9
8	Jacob deGrom	149.1	10	9	30.9%	6.3%	3.80	3.03	4.1	3.2	40.3	64.7	164.1	11	10	30.8%	6.3%	3.72	3.08	4.5	3.5	45.6	71.5
9	Payton Tolle	137.0	9	6	28.9%	6.7%	3.15	3.10	3.7	3.8	45.4	66.7	151.0	10	7	28.6%	6.7%	3.22	3.19	4.0	4.1	49.0	70.9
10	Nick Martinez	166.1	14	4	14.8%	3.6%	2.92	3.89	2.8	5.4	53.0	64.2	183.1	15	5	15.0%	3.8%	3.09	4.02	2.9	5.6	54.7	64.5

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	178.2	13	6	31.4%	6.0%	2.01	2.61	5.6	7.0	84.3	121.9	195.2	14	7	31.0%	6.2%	2.12	2.73	6.0	7.4	89.7	128.2
2	Dylan Cease	161.1	10	5	35.2%	10.4%	2.40	2.47	5.5	5.4	70.4	106.7	177.1	11	6	34.9%	10.3%	2.49	2.58	5.9	5.8	75.5	113.4
3	Parker Messick	172.1	11	9	26.0%	6.9%	2.51	3.11	4.5	6.0	67.0	93.6	188.1	12	10	25.8%	6.9%	2.63	3.21	4.8	6.3	70.6	97.6
4	Drew Rasmussen	160.1	14	5	25.6%	4.3%	2.81	2.88	4.6	5.2	60.2	89.1	176.1	15	6	25.5%	4.5%	2.86	2.98	4.9	5.5	64.8	94.5
5	Sonny Gray	156.2	17	5	22.0%	6.6%	2.76	3.46	3.2	5.6	61.3	79.5	171.2	18	6	22.2%	6.6%	2.83	3.51	3.5	5.9	65.3	84.3
6	Reid Detmers	168.0	5	8	28.4%	6.7%	3.32	3.03	4.4	4.3	46.1	73.5	185.0	6	9	28.3%	6.9%	3.36	3.12	4.8	4.6	50.5	78.8
7	Gavin Williams	169.0	13	7	33.5%	7.8%	3.78	3.49	3.2	3.1	49.3	68.3	184.0	14	8	33.0%	7.9%	3.77	3.55	3.5	3.3	53.6	72.9
8	Jacob deGrom	149.1	10	9	30.9%	6.3%	3.80	3.03	4.1	3.2	40.3	64.7	164.1	11	10	30.8%	6.3%	3.72	3.08	4.5	3.5	45.6	71.5
9	Payton Tolle	137.0	9	6	28.9%	6.7%	3.15	3.10	3.7	3.8	45.4	66.7	151.0	10	7	28.6%	6.7%	3.22	3.19	4.0	4.1	49.0	70.9
10	Nick Martinez	166.1	14	4	14.8%	3.6%	2.92	3.89	2.8	5.4	53.0	64.2	183.1	15	5	15.0%	3.8%	3.09	4.02	2.9	5.6	54.7	64.5

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	161.1	14	5	38.3%	6.7%	1.95	2.23	6.0	6.4	83.3	123.9	177.1	15	6	37.6%	6.9%	2.08	2.39	6.4	6.8	88.3	129.9
2	Chris Sale	157.0	14	9	30.3%	4.9%	2.18	2.28	5.6	6.1	73.5	112.1	173.0	15	10	30.3%	5.1%	2.24	2.40	6.1	6.6	79.5	119.8
3	Cristopher Sánchez	187.1	17	5	27.0%	5.4%	2.79	2.72	5.8	6.0	73.7	110.7	204.1	18	6	26.9%	5.4%	2.82	2.75	6.3	6.5	79.0	118.7
4	Jesús Luzardo	178.2	14	5	30.4%	7.2%	2.87	2.78	5.5	5.3	68.4	102.7	190.2	15	6	30.2%	7.2%	2.88	2.82	5.8	5.5	72.8	108.5
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	172.0	13	8	26.0%	5.9%	2.62	3.33	4.3	6.3	66.1	88.4	190.0	14	9	25.9%	6.0%	2.70	3.38	4.7	6.7	71.0	94.7
6	Chase Burns	148.1	15	3	29.2%	8.5%	2.73	3.09	4.4	4.8	61.8	85.0	160.1	16	4	29.2%	8.5%	2.81	3.19	4.7	5.0	65.2	88.5
7	Cade Cavalli	164.2	12	5	28.2%	7.0%	3.12	3.33	3.6	3.7	56.7	78.1	178.2	13	6	27.9%	7.0%	3.12	3.35	3.9	4.0	61.1	84.0
8	Eduardo Rodriguez	173.0	15	5	18.0%	8.0%	2.55	3.75	3.1	6.1	65.3	79.7	189.0	16	6	18.1%	8.1%	2.71	3.83	3.2	6.2	67.6	81.7
9	Nolan McLean	166.2	11	9	26.5%	9.5%	3.24	3.68	3.0	3.1	52.7	68.0	182.2	12	10	26.3%	9.4%	3.25	3.73	3.3	3.4	57.4	73.0
10	Zack Wheeler	143.1	12	5	30.0%	7.8%	3.14	3.54	3.2	4.3	50.9	66.2	160.1	13	6	29.8%	7.8%	3.14	3.57	3.7	4.8	56.3	72.9

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	161.1	14	5	38.3%	6.7%	1.95	2.23	6.0	6.4	83.3	123.9	177.1	15	6	37.6%	6.9%	2.08	2.39	6.4	6.8	88.3	129.9
2	Chris Sale	157.0	14	9	30.3%	4.9%	2.18	2.28	5.6	6.1	73.5	112.1	173.0	15	10	30.3%	5.1%	2.24	2.40	6.1	6.6	79.5	119.8
3	Cristopher Sánchez	187.1	17	5	27.0%	5.4%	2.79	2.72	5.8	6.0	73.7	110.7	204.1	18	6	26.9%	5.4%	2.82	2.75	6.3	6.5	79.0	118.7
4	Jesús Luzardo	178.2	14	5	30.4%	7.2%	2.87	2.78	5.5	5.3	68.4	102.7	190.2	15	6	30.2%	7.2%	2.88	2.82	5.8	5.5	72.8	108.5
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	172.0	13	8	26.0%	5.9%	2.62	3.33	4.3	6.3	66.1	88.4	190.0	14	9	25.9%	6.0%	2.70	3.38	4.7	6.7	71.0	94.7
6	Chase Burns	148.1	15	3	29.2%	8.5%	2.73	3.09	4.4	4.8	61.8	85.0	160.1	16	4	29.2%	8.5%	2.81	3.19	4.7	5.0	65.2	88.5
7	Cade Cavalli	164.2	12	5	28.2%	7.0%	3.12	3.33	3.6	3.7	56.7	78.1	178.2	13	6	27.9%	7.0%	3.12	3.35	3.9	4.0	61.1	84.0
8	Eduardo Rodriguez	173.0	15	5	18.0%	8.0%	2.55	3.75	3.1	6.1	65.3	79.7	189.0	16	6	18.1%	8.1%	2.71	3.83	3.2	6.2	67.6	81.7
9	Nolan McLean	166.2	11	9	26.5%	9.5%	3.24	3.68	3.0	3.1	52.7	68.0	182.2	12	10	26.3%	9.4%	3.25	3.73	3.3	3.4	57.4	73.0
10	Zack Wheeler	143.1	12	5	30.0%	7.8%	3.14	3.54	3.2	4.3	50.9	66.2	160.1	13	6	29.8%	7.8%	3.14	3.57	3.7	4.8	56.3	72.9

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG