Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	163.2	12	6	30.9%	6.5%	2.09	2.62	5.1	6.2	75.9	110.1	190.2	14	7	30.3%	6.7%	2.27	2.78	5.7	6.8	84.4	120.8
2	Dylan Cease	150.1	9	5	36.1%	10.8%	2.33	2.42	5.1	5.3	66.9	101.6	178.1	11	6	35.1%	10.6%	2.47	2.60	5.8	5.9	76.4	114.0
3	Parker Messick	161.0	11	8	25.3%	6.8%	2.46	3.05	4.3	5.7	63.6	89.5	189.0	13	10	25.0%	6.9%	2.67	3.18	4.8	6.2	70.4	98.2
4	Drew Rasmussen	146.1	14	5	26.0%	4.7%	2.95	2.90	4.1	4.5	54.1	80.1	173.1	16	7	25.8%	4.8%	3.01	3.01	4.7	5.1	62.3	90.9
5	Sonny Gray	143.2	16	4	21.8%	6.3%	2.82	3.54	2.7	5.0	55.6	71.0	168.2	18	5	22.1%	6.4%	2.99	3.60	3.2	5.4	61.6	78.5
6	Logan Gilbert	160.1	11	8	26.0%	6.3%	3.42	3.64	2.8	3.7	46.8	62.1	188.1	13	10	26.0%	6.2%	3.44	3.69	3.3	4.1	54.8	71.7
7	Reid Detmers	155.0	4	8	27.8%	7.0%	3.54	3.19	3.8	3.5	37.9	60.4	182.0	6	10	27.5%	7.2%	3.56	3.29	4.2	4.0	45.3	69.8
8	Jacob deGrom	137.1	10	9	29.8%	6.6%	4.00	3.07	3.7	2.6	34.4	56.2	163.1	12	10	29.8%	6.5%	3.86	3.11	4.3	3.2	43.5	68.7
9	Payton Tolle	131.0	8	6	27.7%	7.0%	3.23	3.27	3.3	3.5	41.2	59.1	156.0	10	7	27.3%	7.1%	3.29	3.38	3.7	4.0	48.3	67.7
10	José Soriano	151.1	11	7	23.7%	10.6%	3.45	3.77	2.4	3.3	43.6	55.9	178.1	13	9	23.4%	10.6%	3.48	3.79	2.9	3.8	50.7	64.8

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	163.2	12	6	30.9%	6.5%	2.09	2.62	5.1	6.2	75.9	110.1	190.2	14	7	30.3%	6.7%	2.27	2.78	5.7	6.8	84.4	120.8
2	Dylan Cease	150.1	9	5	36.1%	10.8%	2.33	2.42	5.1	5.3	66.9	101.6	178.1	11	6	35.1%	10.6%	2.47	2.60	5.8	5.9	76.4	114.0
3	Parker Messick	161.0	11	8	25.3%	6.8%	2.46	3.05	4.3	5.7	63.6	89.5	189.0	13	10	25.0%	6.9%	2.67	3.18	4.8	6.2	70.4	98.2
4	Drew Rasmussen	146.1	14	5	26.0%	4.7%	2.95	2.90	4.1	4.5	54.1	80.1	173.1	16	7	25.8%	4.8%	3.01	3.01	4.7	5.1	62.3	90.9
5	Sonny Gray	143.2	16	4	21.8%	6.3%	2.82	3.54	2.7	5.0	55.6	71.0	168.2	18	5	22.1%	6.4%	2.99	3.60	3.2	5.4	61.6	78.5
6	Logan Gilbert	160.1	11	8	26.0%	6.3%	3.42	3.64	2.8	3.7	46.8	62.1	188.1	13	10	26.0%	6.2%	3.44	3.69	3.3	4.1	54.8	71.7
7	Reid Detmers	155.0	4	8	27.8%	7.0%	3.54	3.19	3.8	3.5	37.9	60.4	182.0	6	10	27.5%	7.2%	3.56	3.29	4.2	4.0	45.3	69.8
8	Jacob deGrom	137.1	10	9	29.8%	6.6%	4.00	3.07	3.7	2.6	34.4	56.2	163.1	12	10	29.8%	6.5%	3.86	3.11	4.3	3.2	43.5	68.7
9	Payton Tolle	131.0	8	6	27.7%	7.0%	3.23	3.27	3.3	3.5	41.2	59.1	156.0	10	7	27.3%	7.1%	3.29	3.38	3.7	4.0	48.3	67.7
10	José Soriano	151.1	11	7	23.7%	10.6%	3.45	3.77	2.4	3.3	43.6	55.9	178.1	13	9	23.4%	10.6%	3.48	3.79	2.9	3.8	50.7	64.8

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	151.0	14	5	38.9%	6.1%	1.73	2.14	5.7	6.3	82.7	122.3	178.0	16	6	37.6%	6.6%	1.97	2.36	6.4	7.0	91.7	134.0
2	Cristopher Sánchez	175.1	16	4	27.8%	5.4%	2.52	2.57	5.7	6.1	74.9	112.4	204.1	18	5	27.5%	5.4%	2.60	2.64	6.6	6.9	84.5	126.8
3	Chris Sale	144.0	13	9	30.7%	4.9%	2.06	2.18	5.3	5.7	69.7	106.8	170.0	15	10	30.6%	5.0%	2.22	2.36	6.1	6.4	78.9	119.2
4	Jesús Luzardo	163.0	12	5	30.3%	7.5%	3.09	2.80	4.9	4.2	57.8	88.7	191.0	14	6	30.0%	7.5%	3.11	2.90	5.6	4.9	67.1	101.0
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	158.0	12	8	25.2%	5.9%	2.56	3.26	4.1	5.8	61.3	83.0	186.0	14	9	25.2%	6.1%	2.66	3.33	4.7	6.4	70.2	94.4
6	Chase Burns	145.1	15	3	28.9%	8.4%	2.79	3.13	4.2	4.5	59.8	82.0	164.1	16	4	28.8%	8.4%	2.90	3.25	4.7	4.9	64.5	87.3
7	Cade Cavalli	152.2	12	5	27.7%	7.2%	3.12	3.37	3.3	3.3	53.0	72.2	175.2	13	6	27.2%	7.3%	3.18	3.41	3.8	3.7	58.9	80.1
8	Eduardo Rodriguez	162.0	14	4	18.0%	7.9%	2.50	3.70	2.9	5.7	61.9	76.3	188.0	15	6	18.1%	7.9%	2.78	3.88	3.2	5.9	65.0	78.0
9	Paul Skenes	145.0	9	11	29.5%	6.9%	3.79	2.96	4.1	2.4	38.0	62.8	171.0	11	12	29.5%	6.8%	3.68	2.95	4.9	3.0	47.2	76.7
10	Nolan McLean	155.2	10	8	26.7%	9.5%	3.06	3.59	3.0	3.1	52.0	67.7	181.2	12	9	26.4%	9.4%	3.12	3.69	3.4	3.6	59.7	76.2

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	151.0	14	5	38.9%	6.1%	1.73	2.14	5.7	6.3	82.7	122.3	178.0	16	6	37.6%	6.6%	1.97	2.36	6.4	7.0	91.7	134.0
2	Cristopher Sánchez	175.1	16	4	27.8%	5.4%	2.52	2.57	5.7	6.1	74.9	112.4	204.1	18	5	27.5%	5.4%	2.60	2.64	6.6	6.9	84.5	126.8
3	Chris Sale	144.0	13	9	30.7%	4.9%	2.06	2.18	5.3	5.7	69.7	106.8	170.0	15	10	30.6%	5.0%	2.22	2.36	6.1	6.4	78.9	119.2
4	Jesús Luzardo	163.0	12	5	30.3%	7.5%	3.09	2.80	4.9	4.2	57.8	88.7	191.0	14	6	30.0%	7.5%	3.11	2.90	5.6	4.9	67.1	101.0
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	158.0	12	8	25.2%	5.9%	2.56	3.26	4.1	5.8	61.3	83.0	186.0	14	9	25.2%	6.1%	2.66	3.33	4.7	6.4	70.2	94.4
6	Chase Burns	145.1	15	3	28.9%	8.4%	2.79	3.13	4.2	4.5	59.8	82.0	164.1	16	4	28.8%	8.4%	2.90	3.25	4.7	4.9	64.5	87.3
7	Cade Cavalli	152.2	12	5	27.7%	7.2%	3.12	3.37	3.3	3.3	53.0	72.2	175.2	13	6	27.2%	7.3%	3.18	3.41	3.8	3.7	58.9	80.1
8	Eduardo Rodriguez	162.0	14	4	18.0%	7.9%	2.50	3.70	2.9	5.7	61.9	76.3	188.0	15	6	18.1%	7.9%	2.78	3.88	3.2	5.9	65.0	78.0
9	Paul Skenes	145.0	9	11	29.5%	6.9%	3.79	2.96	4.1	2.4	38.0	62.8	171.0	11	12	29.5%	6.8%	3.68	2.95	4.9	3.0	47.2	76.7
10	Nolan McLean	155.2	10	8	26.7%	9.5%	3.06	3.59	3.0	3.1	52.0	67.7	181.2	12	9	26.4%	9.4%	3.12	3.69	3.4	3.6	59.7	76.2

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG