Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 145.1 | 11 | 3 | 33.8% | 3.8% | 2.35 | 2.12 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 64.4 | 102.8 | 195.1 | 15 | 5 | 32.9% | 4.1% | 2.44 | 2.33 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 84.5 | 131.6 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 152.1 | 13 | 5 | 30.8% | 6.5% | 2.48 | 2.53 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 66.0 | 99.2 | 198.1 | 16 | 7 | 30.8% | 6.7% | 2.59 | 2.63 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 82.7 | 123.9 |
| 3 | Hunter Brown | 136.1 | 9 | 5 | 30.1% | 7.5% | 2.51 | 2.89 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 55.2 | 79.5 | 184.1 | 12 | 8 | 29.1% | 7.7% | 2.78 | 3.08 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 68.5 | 97.6 |
| 4 | Nathan Eovaldi | 116.0 | 10 | 3 | 25.6% | 4.7% | 1.71 | 2.76 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 57.4 | 79.8 | 162.0 | 13 | 6 | 25.0% | 5.2% | 2.22 | 3.02 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 69.9 | 96.5 |
| 5 | Framber Valdez | 145.2 | 11 | 5 | 24.4% | 8.2% | 2.97 | 2.96 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 50.3 | 75.2 | 198.2 | 14 | 8 | 24.1% | 8.1% | 3.08 | 3.10 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 64.9 | 95.9 |
| 6 | Max Fried | 144.0 | 12 | 5 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 2.94 | 3.16 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 50.5 | 71.9 | 194.0 | 15 | 7 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 3.06 | 3.31 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 64.2 | 89.9 |
| 7 | Joe Ryan | 132.1 | 11 | 5 | 28.2% | 4.8% | 2.79 | 3.19 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 50.8 | 70.1 | 180.1 | 14 | 8 | 27.9% | 5.0% | 3.04 | 3.35 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 63.2 | 86.2 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | 135.1 | 10 | 5 | 27.2% | 5.7% | 2.86 | 3.53 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 49.0 | 63.6 | 178.1 | 13 | 7 | 27.8% | 5.6% | 2.98 | 3.45 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 62.6 | 83.4 |
| 9 | Bryan Woo | 146.0 | 10 | 6 | 25.3% | 4.5% | 3.08 | 3.67 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 47.5 | 60.9 | 193.0 | 13 | 9 | 24.9% | 4.7% | 3.22 | 3.71 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 59.6 | 76.5 |
| 10 | Carlos Rodón | 146.2 | 12 | 7 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.25 | 3.84 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 48.7 | 59.5 | 194.2 | 15 | 10 | 27.4% | 9.4% | 3.42 | 3.92 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 60.2 | 72.9 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 145.1 | 11 | 3 | 33.8% | 3.8% | 2.35 | 2.12 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 64.4 | 102.8 | 195.1 | 15 | 5 | 32.9% | 4.1% | 2.44 | 2.33 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 84.5 | 131.6 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 152.1 | 13 | 5 | 30.8% | 6.5% | 2.48 | 2.53 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 66.0 | 99.2 | 198.1 | 16 | 7 | 30.8% | 6.7% | 2.59 | 2.63 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 82.7 | 123.9 |
| 3 | Hunter Brown | 136.1 | 9 | 5 | 30.1% | 7.5% | 2.51 | 2.89 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 55.2 | 79.5 | 184.1 | 12 | 8 | 29.1% | 7.7% | 2.78 | 3.08 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 68.5 | 97.6 |
| 4 | Nathan Eovaldi | 116.0 | 10 | 3 | 25.6% | 4.7% | 1.71 | 2.76 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 57.4 | 79.8 | 162.0 | 13 | 6 | 25.0% | 5.2% | 2.22 | 3.02 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 69.9 | 96.5 |
| 5 | Framber Valdez | 145.2 | 11 | 5 | 24.4% | 8.2% | 2.97 | 2.96 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 50.3 | 75.2 | 198.2 | 14 | 8 | 24.1% | 8.1% | 3.08 | 3.10 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 64.9 | 95.9 |
| 6 | Max Fried | 144.0 | 12 | 5 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 2.94 | 3.16 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 50.5 | 71.9 | 194.0 | 15 | 7 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 3.06 | 3.31 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 64.2 | 89.9 |
| 7 | Joe Ryan | 132.1 | 11 | 5 | 28.2% | 4.8% | 2.79 | 3.19 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 50.8 | 70.1 | 180.1 | 14 | 8 | 27.9% | 5.0% | 3.04 | 3.35 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 63.2 | 86.2 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | 135.1 | 10 | 5 | 27.2% | 5.7% | 2.86 | 3.53 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 49.0 | 63.6 | 178.1 | 13 | 7 | 27.8% | 5.6% | 2.98 | 3.45 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 62.6 | 83.4 |
| 9 | Bryan Woo | 146.0 | 10 | 6 | 25.3% | 4.5% | 3.08 | 3.67 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 47.5 | 60.9 | 193.0 | 13 | 9 | 24.9% | 4.7% | 3.22 | 3.71 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 59.6 | 76.5 |
| 10 | Carlos Rodón | 146.2 | 12 | 7 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.25 | 3.84 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 48.7 | 59.5 | 194.2 | 15 | 10 | 27.4% | 9.4% | 3.42 | 3.92 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 60.2 | 72.9 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Paul Skenes | 148.0 | 7 | 9 | 28.6% | 6.2% | 2.13 | 2.50 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 62.6 | 95.4 | 194.0 | 10 | 11 | 28.8% | 6.4% | 2.32 | 2.63 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 79.2 | 119.5 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 144.2 | 10 | 5 | 33.5% | 5.5% | 2.68 | 2.92 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 58.2 | 83.7 | 197.2 | 14 | 7 | 32.1% | 5.6% | 2.78 | 3.03 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 76.8 | 109.0 |
| 3 | Cristopher Sánchez | 144.2 | 11 | 3 | 25.9% | 6.0% | 2.36 | 2.77 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 60.4 | 88.3 | 193.2 | 14 | 5 | 25.1% | 6.1% | 2.60 | 2.93 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 74.6 | 108.4 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 153.2 | 10 | 9 | 26.2% | 5.5% | 3.34 | 2.61 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 46.6 | 78.9 | 205.2 | 13 | 12 | 25.3% | 5.5% | 3.33 | 2.78 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 61.5 | 100.9 |
| 5 | Matthew Boyd | 135.2 | 11 | 5 | 22.6% | 5.4% | 2.45 | 3.13 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 53.9 | 74.6 | 186.2 | 14 | 8 | 22.6% | 5.8% | 2.84 | 3.41 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 65.2 | 87.8 |
| 6 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 126.2 | 10 | 8 | 28.3% | 8.6% | 2.84 | 3.06 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 47.8 | 68.1 | 172.2 | 13 | 10 | 27.7% | 8.3% | 2.97 | 3.20 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 61.7 | 86.7 |
| 7 | Nick Pivetta | 134.2 | 11 | 4 | 26.2% | 6.6% | 2.94 | 3.31 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 48.2 | 66.0 | 182.2 | 14 | 7 | 26.5% | 6.8% | 3.20 | 3.55 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 59.7 | 79.0 |
| 8 | Freddy Peralta | 136.2 | 14 | 5 | 26.1% | 8.8% | 2.90 | 3.73 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 53.1 | 64.8 | 182.2 | 17 | 8 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 3.15 | 3.81 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 64.3 | 78.4 |
| 9 | Robbie Ray | 148.0 | 9 | 6 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.98 | 3.72 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 49.2 | 62.0 | 195.0 | 12 | 9 | 25.3% | 9.0% | 3.23 | 3.79 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 59.8 | 75.2 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 135.1 | 11 | 5 | 26.8% | 4.0% | 4.06 | 3.10 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 32.5 | 53.4 | 181.1 | 14 | 7 | 26.6% | 4.5% | 3.87 | 3.20 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 46.4 | 72.6 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Paul Skenes | 148.0 | 7 | 9 | 28.6% | 6.2% | 2.13 | 2.50 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 62.6 | 95.4 | 194.0 | 10 | 11 | 28.8% | 6.4% | 2.32 | 2.63 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 79.2 | 119.5 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 144.2 | 10 | 5 | 33.5% | 5.5% | 2.68 | 2.92 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 58.2 | 83.7 | 197.2 | 14 | 7 | 32.1% | 5.6% | 2.78 | 3.03 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 76.8 | 109.0 |
| 3 | Cristopher Sánchez | 144.2 | 11 | 3 | 25.9% | 6.0% | 2.36 | 2.77 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 60.4 | 88.3 | 193.2 | 14 | 5 | 25.1% | 6.1% | 2.60 | 2.93 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 74.6 | 108.4 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 153.2 | 10 | 9 | 26.2% | 5.5% | 3.34 | 2.61 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 46.6 | 78.9 | 205.2 | 13 | 12 | 25.3% | 5.5% | 3.33 | 2.78 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 61.5 | 100.9 |
| 5 | Matthew Boyd | 135.2 | 11 | 5 | 22.6% | 5.4% | 2.45 | 3.13 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 53.9 | 74.6 | 186.2 | 14 | 8 | 22.6% | 5.8% | 2.84 | 3.41 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 65.2 | 87.8 |
| 6 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 126.2 | 10 | 8 | 28.3% | 8.6% | 2.84 | 3.06 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 47.8 | 68.1 | 172.2 | 13 | 10 | 27.7% | 8.3% | 2.97 | 3.20 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 61.7 | 86.7 |
| 7 | Nick Pivetta | 134.2 | 11 | 4 | 26.2% | 6.6% | 2.94 | 3.31 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 48.2 | 66.0 | 182.2 | 14 | 7 | 26.5% | 6.8% | 3.20 | 3.55 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 59.7 | 79.0 |
| 8 | Freddy Peralta | 136.2 | 14 | 5 | 26.1% | 8.8% | 2.90 | 3.73 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 53.1 | 64.8 | 182.2 | 17 | 8 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 3.15 | 3.81 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 64.3 | 78.4 |
| 9 | Robbie Ray | 148.0 | 9 | 6 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.98 | 3.72 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 49.2 | 62.0 | 195.0 | 12 | 9 | 25.3% | 9.0% | 3.23 | 3.79 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 59.8 | 75.2 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 135.1 | 11 | 5 | 26.8% | 4.0% | 4.06 | 3.10 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 32.5 | 53.4 | 181.1 | 14 | 7 | 26.6% | 4.5% | 3.87 | 3.20 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 46.4 | 72.6 |
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