Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Cam Schlittler | 178.2 | 13 | 6 | 31.4% | 6.0% | 2.01 | 2.60 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 84.3 | 122.0 | 195.2 | 13 | 6 | 31.1% | 6.2% | 2.16 | 2.72 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 87.8 | 126.5 |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | 161.1 | 10 | 5 | 35.2% | 10.4% | 2.40 | 2.47 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 70.4 | 106.7 | 179.1 | 10 | 5 | 35.2% | 10.3% | 2.46 | 2.56 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 76.0 | 114.6 |
| 3 | Parker Messick | 167.0 | 11 | 9 | 26.1% | 6.8% | 2.53 | 3.12 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 64.8 | 90.5 | 184.0 | 11 | 9 | 25.9% | 6.8% | 2.64 | 3.21 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 68.0 | 94.5 |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | 153.1 | 14 | 5 | 26.1% | 4.5% | 2.88 | 2.91 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 57.3 | 84.3 | 170.1 | 14 | 5 | 26.0% | 4.7% | 2.91 | 3.01 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 61.5 | 89.6 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 150.2 | 17 | 4 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 2.69 | 3.50 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 60.8 | 77.6 | 165.2 | 17 | 4 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 2.82 | 3.58 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 62.7 | 79.7 |
| 6 | Reid Detmers | 168.0 | 5 | 8 | 28.4% | 6.7% | 3.32 | 3.03 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 46.1 | 73.5 | 185.0 | 5 | 8 | 28.3% | 6.7% | 3.36 | 3.11 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 49.5 | 78.1 |
| 7 | Gavin Williams | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 33.5% | 7.8% | 3.78 | 3.49 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 49.3 | 68.3 | 186.0 | 13 | 7 | 33.1% | 8.0% | 3.77 | 3.53 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 52.9 | 72.9 |
| 8 | Payton Tolle | 137.0 | 9 | 6 | 28.9% | 6.7% | 3.15 | 3.10 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 45.4 | 66.7 | 153.0 | 9 | 6 | 28.5% | 6.8% | 3.18 | 3.21 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 49.0 | 70.9 |
| 9 | Louis Varland | 72.1 | 5 | 5 | 31.3% | 7.4% | 1.24 | 1.87 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 40.1 | 61.2 | 77.1 | 5 | 5 | 31.4% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 2.04 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 41.2 | 62.3 |
| 10 | Jacob deGrom | 143.1 | 10 | 9 | 29.9% | 6.5% | 3.96 | 3.19 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 36.1 | 57.0 | 159.1 | 10 | 9 | 29.6% | 6.6% | 3.95 | 3.25 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 38.9 | 61.0 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Cam Schlittler | 178.2 | 13 | 6 | 31.4% | 6.0% | 2.01 | 2.60 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 84.3 | 122.0 | 195.2 | 13 | 6 | 31.1% | 6.2% | 2.16 | 2.72 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 87.8 | 126.5 |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | 161.1 | 10 | 5 | 35.2% | 10.4% | 2.40 | 2.47 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 70.4 | 106.7 | 179.1 | 10 | 5 | 35.2% | 10.3% | 2.46 | 2.56 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 76.0 | 114.6 |
| 3 | Parker Messick | 167.0 | 11 | 9 | 26.1% | 6.8% | 2.53 | 3.12 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 64.8 | 90.5 | 184.0 | 11 | 9 | 25.9% | 6.8% | 2.64 | 3.21 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 68.0 | 94.5 |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | 153.1 | 14 | 5 | 26.1% | 4.5% | 2.88 | 2.91 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 57.3 | 84.3 | 170.1 | 14 | 5 | 26.0% | 4.7% | 2.91 | 3.01 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 61.5 | 89.6 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 150.2 | 17 | 4 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 2.69 | 3.50 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 60.8 | 77.6 | 165.2 | 17 | 4 | 22.1% | 6.5% | 2.82 | 3.58 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 62.7 | 79.7 |
| 6 | Reid Detmers | 168.0 | 5 | 8 | 28.4% | 6.7% | 3.32 | 3.03 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 46.1 | 73.5 | 185.0 | 5 | 8 | 28.3% | 6.7% | 3.36 | 3.11 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 49.5 | 78.1 |
| 7 | Gavin Williams | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 33.5% | 7.8% | 3.78 | 3.49 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 49.3 | 68.3 | 186.0 | 13 | 7 | 33.1% | 8.0% | 3.77 | 3.53 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 52.9 | 72.9 |
| 8 | Payton Tolle | 137.0 | 9 | 6 | 28.9% | 6.7% | 3.15 | 3.10 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 45.4 | 66.7 | 153.0 | 9 | 6 | 28.5% | 6.8% | 3.18 | 3.21 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 49.0 | 70.9 |
| 9 | Louis Varland | 72.1 | 5 | 5 | 31.3% | 7.4% | 1.24 | 1.87 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 40.1 | 61.2 | 77.1 | 5 | 5 | 31.4% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 2.04 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 41.2 | 62.3 |
| 10 | Jacob deGrom | 143.1 | 10 | 9 | 29.9% | 6.5% | 3.96 | 3.19 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 36.1 | 57.0 | 159.1 | 10 | 9 | 29.6% | 6.6% | 3.95 | 3.25 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 38.9 | 61.0 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | 161.1 | 14 | 5 | 38.3% | 6.7% | 1.95 | 2.23 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 83.3 | 124.0 | 178.1 | 14 | 5 | 38.1% | 6.9% | 2.02 | 2.34 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 89.2 | 131.9 |
| 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | 187.1 | 17 | 5 | 27.0% | 5.4% | 2.79 | 2.72 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 73.7 | 110.7 | 204.1 | 17 | 5 | 26.8% | 5.4% | 2.82 | 2.76 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 77.9 | 117.4 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 150.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.6% | 4.8% | 2.10 | 2.26 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 72.4 | 109.7 | 167.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.5% | 5.1% | 2.21 | 2.40 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 77.0 | 116.0 |
| 4 | Jesús Luzardo | 178.2 | 14 | 5 | 30.4% | 7.2% | 2.87 | 2.77 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 68.4 | 102.7 | 196.2 | 14 | 5 | 30.2% | 7.3% | 2.93 | 2.88 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 72.4 | 107.9 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 172.0 | 13 | 8 | 26.0% | 5.9% | 2.62 | 3.33 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 66.1 | 88.5 | 190.0 | 13 | 8 | 26.1% | 6.0% | 2.65 | 3.38 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 71.0 | 94.7 |
| 6 | Chase Burns | 148.1 | 15 | 3 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 2.73 | 3.09 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 61.8 | 85.0 | 159.1 | 15 | 3 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 2.82 | 3.20 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 63.6 | 86.5 |
| 7 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 173.0 | 15 | 5 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 2.55 | 3.75 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 65.3 | 79.7 | 190.0 | 15 | 5 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 2.75 | 3.81 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 66.2 | 80.7 |
| 8 | Cade Cavalli | 158.2 | 12 | 5 | 27.9% | 6.9% | 3.12 | 3.29 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 54.8 | 76.1 | 174.2 | 12 | 5 | 27.7% | 7.0% | 3.19 | 3.37 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 57.5 | 79.5 |
| 9 | Nolan McLean | 161.2 | 11 | 8 | 26.7% | 9.7% | 3.06 | 3.57 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 54.7 | 71.4 | 178.2 | 11 | 8 | 26.5% | 9.7% | 3.12 | 3.64 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 58.0 | 75.0 |
| 10 | Paul Skenes | 155.0 | 10 | 11 | 28.3% | 7.0% | 3.83 | 3.08 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 39.6 | 64.0 | 172.0 | 10 | 11 | 28.2% | 7.0% | 3.77 | 3.08 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 44.0 | 71.1 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | 161.1 | 14 | 5 | 38.3% | 6.7% | 1.95 | 2.23 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 83.3 | 124.0 | 178.1 | 14 | 5 | 38.1% | 6.9% | 2.02 | 2.34 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 89.2 | 131.9 |
| 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | 187.1 | 17 | 5 | 27.0% | 5.4% | 2.79 | 2.72 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 73.7 | 110.7 | 204.1 | 17 | 5 | 26.8% | 5.4% | 2.82 | 2.76 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 77.9 | 117.4 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 150.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.6% | 4.8% | 2.10 | 2.26 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 72.4 | 109.7 | 167.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.5% | 5.1% | 2.21 | 2.40 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 77.0 | 116.0 |
| 4 | Jesús Luzardo | 178.2 | 14 | 5 | 30.4% | 7.2% | 2.87 | 2.77 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 68.4 | 102.7 | 196.2 | 14 | 5 | 30.2% | 7.3% | 2.93 | 2.88 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 72.4 | 107.9 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 172.0 | 13 | 8 | 26.0% | 5.9% | 2.62 | 3.33 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 66.1 | 88.5 | 190.0 | 13 | 8 | 26.1% | 6.0% | 2.65 | 3.38 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 71.0 | 94.7 |
| 6 | Chase Burns | 148.1 | 15 | 3 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 2.73 | 3.09 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 61.8 | 85.0 | 159.1 | 15 | 3 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 2.82 | 3.20 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 63.6 | 86.5 |
| 7 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 173.0 | 15 | 5 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 2.55 | 3.75 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 65.3 | 79.7 | 190.0 | 15 | 5 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 2.75 | 3.81 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 66.2 | 80.7 |
| 8 | Cade Cavalli | 158.2 | 12 | 5 | 27.9% | 6.9% | 3.12 | 3.29 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 54.8 | 76.1 | 174.2 | 12 | 5 | 27.7% | 7.0% | 3.19 | 3.37 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 57.5 | 79.5 |
| 9 | Nolan McLean | 161.2 | 11 | 8 | 26.7% | 9.7% | 3.06 | 3.57 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 54.7 | 71.4 | 178.2 | 11 | 8 | 26.5% | 9.7% | 3.12 | 3.64 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 58.0 | 75.0 |
| 10 | Paul Skenes | 155.0 | 10 | 11 | 28.3% | 7.0% | 3.83 | 3.08 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 39.6 | 64.0 | 172.0 | 10 | 11 | 28.2% | 7.0% | 3.77 | 3.08 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 44.0 | 71.1 |
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