Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	102.0	9	2	32.1%	3.3%	2.29	2.11	3.8	3.8	46.5	73.6	194.0	16	6	31.3%	4.2%	2.55	2.46	6.7	6.5	81.6	125.6
2	Garrett Crochet	109.1	7	4	31.3%	7.2%	2.06	2.53	3.4	4.3	50.2	74.2	200.1	14	8	30.4%	7.1%	2.70	2.86	5.7	6.1	78.6	115.0
3	Max Fried	108.0	10	2	24.5%	4.9%	1.92	2.74	2.9	3.9	51.4	72.5	203.0	17	6	23.9%	6.1%	2.57	3.16	5.0	6.0	80.0	110.3
4	Hunter Brown	98.0	8	3	32.1%	7.6%	1.74	2.68	2.9	4.6	49.8	69.7	185.0	14	7	29.9%	7.9%	2.63	3.11	4.8	6.1	74.3	102.8
5	Jacob deGrom	95.1	8	2	25.9%	5.5%	2.08	3.02	2.4	4.0	43.1	58.7	169.1	14	6	26.7%	5.9%	2.66	3.31	4.1	5.5	66.3	88.7
6	Framber Valdez	103.0	8	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.88	3.04	2.5	3.2	36.7	53.4	189.0	14	8	24.2%	8.5%	3.24	3.33	4.1	4.7	59.2	83.9
7	Kris Bubic	91.0	6	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.18	2.52	2.9	3.3	39.1	59.1	163.0	11	9	25.3%	7.6%	2.93	3.09	4.3	4.2	56.5	82.1
8	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	155.1	10	7	25.4%	5.6%	2.84	3.28	3.7	4.4	54.5	75.5
9	Joe Ryan	91.1	8	3	29.1%	5.6%	2.86	3.21	2.1	2.7	35.1	48.2	175.1	13	8	28.3%	5.6%	3.34	3.51	3.9	4.0	55.4	74.6
10	Carlos Rodón	101.2	9	5	29.7%	8.5%	2.92	3.49	1.9	2.5	38.7	50.2	194.2	15	10	28.0%	8.6%	3.61	3.91	3.2	3.4	56.5	69.3

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	102.0	9	2	32.1%	3.3%	2.29	2.11	3.8	3.8	46.5	73.6	194.0	16	6	31.3%	4.2%	2.55	2.46	6.7	6.5	81.6	125.6
2	Garrett Crochet	109.1	7	4	31.3%	7.2%	2.06	2.53	3.4	4.3	50.2	74.2	200.1	14	8	30.4%	7.1%	2.70	2.86	5.7	6.1	78.6	115.0
3	Max Fried	108.0	10	2	24.5%	4.9%	1.92	2.74	2.9	3.9	51.4	72.5	203.0	17	6	23.9%	6.1%	2.57	3.16	5.0	6.0	80.0	110.3
4	Hunter Brown	98.0	8	3	32.1%	7.6%	1.74	2.68	2.9	4.6	49.8	69.7	185.0	14	7	29.9%	7.9%	2.63	3.11	4.8	6.1	74.3	102.8
5	Jacob deGrom	95.1	8	2	25.9%	5.5%	2.08	3.02	2.4	4.0	43.1	58.7	169.1	14	6	26.7%	5.9%	2.66	3.31	4.1	5.5	66.3	88.7
6	Framber Valdez	103.0	8	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.88	3.04	2.5	3.2	36.7	53.4	189.0	14	8	24.2%	8.5%	3.24	3.33	4.1	4.7	59.2	83.9
7	Kris Bubic	91.0	6	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.18	2.52	2.9	3.3	39.1	59.1	163.0	11	9	25.3%	7.6%	2.93	3.09	4.3	4.2	56.5	82.1
8	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	155.1	10	7	25.4%	5.6%	2.84	3.28	3.7	4.4	54.5	75.5
9	Joe Ryan	91.1	8	3	29.1%	5.6%	2.86	3.21	2.1	2.7	35.1	48.2	175.1	13	8	28.3%	5.6%	3.34	3.51	3.9	4.0	55.4	74.6
10	Carlos Rodón	101.2	9	5	29.7%	8.5%	2.92	3.49	1.9	2.5	38.7	50.2	194.2	15	10	28.0%	8.6%	3.61	3.91	3.2	3.4	56.5	69.3

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	107.1	7	5	27.7%	5.3%	2.52	2.24	3.4	3.2	42.7	69.7	206.1	14	10	25.1%	5.4%	2.92	2.66	6.0	5.3	71.2	113.3
2	Paul Skenes	106.0	4	7	26.9%	7.1%	2.12	2.49	3.4	4.2	43.0	66.7	195.0	11	11	27.1%	7.0%	2.58	2.73	5.9	6.4	73.4	111.7
3	Zack Wheeler	99.0	7	3	32.9%	6.5%	2.55	2.66	3.0	3.6	41.1	61.3	196.0	14	7	30.6%	6.7%	2.94	3.03	5.5	5.6	71.7	103.7
4	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.65	2.5	3.0	36.1	54.4	151.1	10	6	30.7%	7.1%	2.91	2.83	4.2	4.3	55.8	83.9
5	Cristopher Sánchez	93.2	6	2	26.6%	7.2%	2.79	2.94	2.4	3.0	34.1	50.4	180.2	13	7	24.7%	7.1%	3.24	3.23	4.1	4.4	56.8	82.4
6	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	89.2	7	6	28.4%	8.7%	2.61	3.23	2.0	2.8	35.9	48.6	170.2	14	9	26.9%	7.9%	3.11	3.41	3.8	4.2	58.9	79.6
7	Spencer Schwellenbach	103.2	6	4	23.5%	4.2%	3.21	3.40	1.8	2.1	30.4	43.1	195.2	13	8	23.4%	4.7%	3.45	3.52	3.9	3.7	54.2	75.4
8	MacKenzie Gore	99.0	3	8	31.8%	7.4%	3.09	2.91	2.8	2.9	31.4	48.9	188.0	8	14	29.3%	8.0%	3.59	3.34	4.5	3.9	50.0	74.2
9	Robbie Ray	92.1	8	2	27.6%	9.5%	2.83	3.26	1.7	2.4	35.6	48.3	179.1	13	7	26.9%	9.4%	3.61	3.74	3.0	3.1	50.8	65.9
10	Kodai Senga	73.2	7	3	23.9%	10.6%	1.47	3.18	1.7	3.4	38.8	49.6	136.2	11	6	23.8%	10.5%	2.70	3.71	2.6	4.1	51.7	63.8

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	107.1	7	5	27.7%	5.3%	2.52	2.24	3.4	3.2	42.7	69.7	206.1	14	10	25.1%	5.4%	2.92	2.66	6.0	5.3	71.2	113.3
2	Paul Skenes	106.0	4	7	26.9%	7.1%	2.12	2.49	3.4	4.2	43.0	66.7	195.0	11	11	27.1%	7.0%	2.58	2.73	5.9	6.4	73.4	111.7
3	Zack Wheeler	99.0	7	3	32.9%	6.5%	2.55	2.66	3.0	3.6	41.1	61.3	196.0	14	7	30.6%	6.7%	2.94	3.03	5.5	5.6	71.7	103.7
4	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.65	2.5	3.0	36.1	54.4	151.1	10	6	30.7%	7.1%	2.91	2.83	4.2	4.3	55.8	83.9
5	Cristopher Sánchez	93.2	6	2	26.6%	7.2%	2.79	2.94	2.4	3.0	34.1	50.4	180.2	13	7	24.7%	7.1%	3.24	3.23	4.1	4.4	56.8	82.4
6	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	89.2	7	6	28.4%	8.7%	2.61	3.23	2.0	2.8	35.9	48.6	170.2	14	9	26.9%	7.9%	3.11	3.41	3.8	4.2	58.9	79.6
7	Spencer Schwellenbach	103.2	6	4	23.5%	4.2%	3.21	3.40	1.8	2.1	30.4	43.1	195.2	13	8	23.4%	4.7%	3.45	3.52	3.9	3.7	54.2	75.4
8	MacKenzie Gore	99.0	3	8	31.8%	7.4%	3.09	2.91	2.8	2.9	31.4	48.9	188.0	8	14	29.3%	8.0%	3.59	3.34	4.5	3.9	50.0	74.2
9	Robbie Ray	92.1	8	2	27.6%	9.5%	2.83	3.26	1.7	2.4	35.6	48.3	179.1	13	7	26.9%	9.4%	3.61	3.74	3.0	3.1	50.8	65.9
10	Kodai Senga	73.2	7	3	23.9%	10.6%	1.47	3.18	1.7	3.4	38.8	49.6	136.2	11	6	23.8%	10.5%	2.70	3.71	2.6	4.1	51.7	63.8

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG