Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	163.2	12	6	30.9%	6.5%	2.09	2.63	5.1	6.2	75.9	110.0	191.2	14	7	30.2%	6.8%	2.30	2.79	5.8	6.8	84.0	120.4
2	Dylan Cease	150.1	9	5	36.1%	10.8%	2.33	2.43	5.1	5.3	66.9	101.5	181.1	12	6	35.7%	10.6%	2.48	2.55	6.0	6.1	78.6	117.8
3	Parker Messick	161.0	11	8	25.3%	6.8%	2.46	3.06	4.3	5.7	63.6	89.3	189.0	12	11	24.8%	6.8%	2.62	3.18	5.0	6.3	70.2	97.9
4	Drew Rasmussen	146.1	14	5	26.0%	4.7%	2.95	2.91	4.1	4.5	54.1	79.9	173.1	15	8	25.5%	5.0%	3.06	3.04	4.7	5.1	60.2	88.2
5	Sonny Gray	143.2	16	4	21.8%	6.3%	2.82	3.55	2.7	5.0	55.6	70.9	164.2	18	5	21.9%	6.4%	2.95	3.66	3.1	5.3	61.0	76.3
6	Gavin Williams	163.0	13	7	33.0%	7.6%	3.81	3.58	3.0	3.0	47.2	63.9	192.0	14	10	32.1%	7.8%	3.80	3.66	3.5	3.5	54.0	71.9
7	Logan Gilbert	160.1	11	8	26.0%	6.3%	3.42	3.65	2.8	3.7	46.8	61.9	188.1	13	9	26.1%	6.3%	3.49	3.69	3.5	4.2	53.8	70.7
8	Reid Detmers	155.0	4	8	27.8%	7.0%	3.54	3.20	3.8	3.5	37.9	60.2	183.0	5	10	27.5%	7.1%	3.59	3.35	4.4	3.9	43.9	67.3
9	Jacob deGrom	137.1	10	9	29.8%	6.6%	4.00	3.08	3.7	2.6	34.4	56.1	165.1	12	10	29.0%	6.7%	3.92	3.18	4.3	3.2	42.2	66.4
10	Payton Tolle	131.0	8	6	27.7%	7.0%	3.23	3.28	3.3	3.5	41.2	59.0	152.0	10	7	27.5%	7.2%	3.26	3.42	3.8	4.0	47.9	66.2

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	163.2	12	6	30.9%	6.5%	2.09	2.63	5.1	6.2	75.9	110.0	191.2	14	7	30.2%	6.8%	2.30	2.79	5.8	6.8	84.0	120.4
2	Dylan Cease	150.1	9	5	36.1%	10.8%	2.33	2.43	5.1	5.3	66.9	101.5	181.1	12	6	35.7%	10.6%	2.48	2.55	6.0	6.1	78.6	117.8
3	Parker Messick	161.0	11	8	25.3%	6.8%	2.46	3.06	4.3	5.7	63.6	89.3	189.0	12	11	24.8%	6.8%	2.62	3.18	5.0	6.3	70.2	97.9
4	Drew Rasmussen	146.1	14	5	26.0%	4.7%	2.95	2.91	4.1	4.5	54.1	79.9	173.1	15	8	25.5%	5.0%	3.06	3.04	4.7	5.1	60.2	88.2
5	Sonny Gray	143.2	16	4	21.8%	6.3%	2.82	3.55	2.7	5.0	55.6	70.9	164.2	18	5	21.9%	6.4%	2.95	3.66	3.1	5.3	61.0	76.3
6	Gavin Williams	163.0	13	7	33.0%	7.6%	3.81	3.58	3.0	3.0	47.2	63.9	192.0	14	10	32.1%	7.8%	3.80	3.66	3.5	3.5	54.0	71.9
7	Logan Gilbert	160.1	11	8	26.0%	6.3%	3.42	3.65	2.8	3.7	46.8	61.9	188.1	13	9	26.1%	6.3%	3.49	3.69	3.5	4.2	53.8	70.7
8	Reid Detmers	155.0	4	8	27.8%	7.0%	3.54	3.20	3.8	3.5	37.9	60.2	183.0	5	10	27.5%	7.1%	3.59	3.35	4.4	3.9	43.9	67.3
9	Jacob deGrom	137.1	10	9	29.8%	6.6%	4.00	3.08	3.7	2.6	34.4	56.1	165.1	12	10	29.0%	6.7%	3.92	3.18	4.3	3.2	42.2	66.4
10	Payton Tolle	131.0	8	6	27.7%	7.0%	3.23	3.28	3.3	3.5	41.2	59.0	152.0	10	7	27.5%	7.2%	3.26	3.42	3.8	4.0	47.9	66.2

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	151.0	14	5	38.9%	6.1%	1.73	2.15	5.7	6.3	82.7	122.2	179.0	16	6	38.0%	6.6%	1.96	2.33	6.5	7.1	92.5	135.6
2	Cristopher Sánchez	175.1	16	4	27.8%	5.4%	2.52	2.58	5.7	6.1	74.9	112.3	203.1	18	5	27.3%	5.5%	2.61	2.66	6.5	6.8	83.7	125.2
3	Chris Sale	144.0	13	9	30.7%	4.9%	2.06	2.19	5.3	5.8	69.7	106.7	167.0	15	10	30.4%	5.1%	2.26	2.31	6.0	6.3	76.9	117.4
4	Jesús Luzardo	169.2	13	5	30.0%	7.3%	3.02	2.86	5.0	4.5	61.7	92.7	198.2	15	6	29.6%	7.5%	3.08	2.96	5.8	5.2	70.5	104.4
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	158.0	12	8	25.2%	5.9%	2.56	3.27	4.1	5.8	61.3	82.9	181.0	14	8	25.4%	6.1%	2.64	3.29	4.7	6.4	69.3	93.6
6	Chase Burns	145.1	15	3	28.9%	8.4%	2.79	3.13	4.2	4.5	59.8	81.8	162.1	16	4	28.6%	8.5%	2.88	3.22	4.6	4.8	64.1	87.1
7	Eduardo Rodriguez	167.0	14	5	17.8%	8.0%	2.59	3.71	3.0	5.7	61.7	76.4	190.0	16	6	17.7%	8.0%	2.84	3.85	3.3	5.8	64.9	78.7
8	Cade Cavalli	152.2	12	5	27.7%	7.2%	3.12	3.38	3.3	3.3	53.0	72.0	173.2	13	7	27.1%	7.3%	3.21	3.43	3.7	3.6	57.6	78.2
9	Nolan McLean	155.2	10	8	26.7%	9.5%	3.06	3.60	3.0	3.1	52.0	67.6	178.2	12	9	26.5%	9.5%	3.12	3.62	3.5	3.6	58.9	76.4
10	Paul Skenes	149.2	9	11	28.9%	7.1%	3.97	3.07	4.1	2.2	35.7	59.6	178.2	11	13	28.9%	7.1%	3.83	3.04	5.0	3.1	45.5	74.5

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	151.0	14	5	38.9%	6.1%	1.73	2.15	5.7	6.3	82.7	122.2	179.0	16	6	38.0%	6.6%	1.96	2.33	6.5	7.1	92.5	135.6
2	Cristopher Sánchez	175.1	16	4	27.8%	5.4%	2.52	2.58	5.7	6.1	74.9	112.3	203.1	18	5	27.3%	5.5%	2.61	2.66	6.5	6.8	83.7	125.2
3	Chris Sale	144.0	13	9	30.7%	4.9%	2.06	2.19	5.3	5.8	69.7	106.7	167.0	15	10	30.4%	5.1%	2.26	2.31	6.0	6.3	76.9	117.4
4	Jesús Luzardo	169.2	13	5	30.0%	7.3%	3.02	2.86	5.0	4.5	61.7	92.7	198.2	15	6	29.6%	7.5%	3.08	2.96	5.8	5.2	70.5	104.4
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	158.0	12	8	25.2%	5.9%	2.56	3.27	4.1	5.8	61.3	82.9	181.0	14	8	25.4%	6.1%	2.64	3.29	4.7	6.4	69.3	93.6
6	Chase Burns	145.1	15	3	28.9%	8.4%	2.79	3.13	4.2	4.5	59.8	81.8	162.1	16	4	28.6%	8.5%	2.88	3.22	4.6	4.8	64.1	87.1
7	Eduardo Rodriguez	167.0	14	5	17.8%	8.0%	2.59	3.71	3.0	5.7	61.7	76.4	190.0	16	6	17.7%	8.0%	2.84	3.85	3.3	5.8	64.9	78.7
8	Cade Cavalli	152.2	12	5	27.7%	7.2%	3.12	3.38	3.3	3.3	53.0	72.0	173.2	13	7	27.1%	7.3%	3.21	3.43	3.7	3.6	57.6	78.2
9	Nolan McLean	155.2	10	8	26.7%	9.5%	3.06	3.60	3.0	3.1	52.0	67.6	178.2	12	9	26.5%	9.5%	3.12	3.62	3.5	3.6	58.9	76.4
10	Paul Skenes	149.2	9	11	28.9%	7.1%	3.97	3.07	4.1	2.2	35.7	59.6	178.2	11	13	28.9%	7.1%	3.83	3.04	5.0	3.1	45.5	74.5

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG