Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 145.1 | 11 | 3 | 33.8% | 3.8% | 2.35 | 2.13 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 64.4 | 102.7 | 190.1 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 4.1% | 2.46 | 2.26 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 82.5 | 129.9 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 152.1 | 13 | 5 | 30.8% | 6.5% | 2.48 | 2.54 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 66.0 | 99.1 | 200.1 | 17 | 6 | 30.6% | 6.6% | 2.70 | 2.69 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 81.8 | 122.1 |
| 3 | Hunter Brown | 143.0 | 10 | 5 | 29.4% | 7.7% | 2.45 | 2.92 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 58.9 | 84.1 | 188.0 | 13 | 7 | 29.0% | 7.9% | 2.78 | 3.10 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 70.6 | 99.9 |
| 4 | Nathan Eovaldi | 116.0 | 10 | 3 | 25.6% | 4.7% | 1.71 | 2.77 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 57.4 | 79.7 | 161.0 | 14 | 5 | 24.8% | 5.2% | 2.29 | 3.14 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 69.1 | 93.4 |
| 5 | Max Fried | 144.0 | 12 | 5 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 2.94 | 3.17 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 50.5 | 71.8 | 191.0 | 16 | 7 | 22.9% | 6.4% | 3.02 | 3.26 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 65.5 | 91.8 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 145.2 | 11 | 5 | 24.4% | 8.2% | 2.97 | 2.97 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 50.3 | 75.1 | 190.2 | 14 | 7 | 24.3% | 8.2% | 3.12 | 3.12 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 62.3 | 91.5 |
| 7 | Joe Ryan | 139.0 | 12 | 5 | 28.2% | 5.0% | 2.72 | 3.23 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 54.8 | 74.5 | 182.0 | 15 | 8 | 27.8% | 5.0% | 2.97 | 3.42 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 66.0 | 87.9 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | 135.1 | 10 | 5 | 27.2% | 5.7% | 2.86 | 3.53 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 49.0 | 63.5 | 172.1 | 13 | 6 | 27.2% | 5.8% | 3.03 | 3.58 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 59.5 | 77.0 |
| 9 | Bryan Woo | 146.0 | 10 | 6 | 25.3% | 4.5% | 3.08 | 3.68 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 47.5 | 60.8 | 191.0 | 13 | 8 | 24.9% | 4.6% | 3.20 | 3.73 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 59.3 | 75.6 |
| 10 | Drew Rasmussen | 117.2 | 10 | 5 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 2.60 | 3.33 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 45.0 | 60.3 | 154.2 | 13 | 7 | 22.2% | 5.6% | 2.85 | 3.44 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 54.8 | 73.1 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 145.1 | 11 | 3 | 33.8% | 3.8% | 2.35 | 2.13 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 64.4 | 102.7 | 190.1 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 4.1% | 2.46 | 2.26 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 82.5 | 129.9 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 152.1 | 13 | 5 | 30.8% | 6.5% | 2.48 | 2.54 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 66.0 | 99.1 | 200.1 | 17 | 6 | 30.6% | 6.6% | 2.70 | 2.69 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 81.8 | 122.1 |
| 3 | Hunter Brown | 143.0 | 10 | 5 | 29.4% | 7.7% | 2.45 | 2.92 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 58.9 | 84.1 | 188.0 | 13 | 7 | 29.0% | 7.9% | 2.78 | 3.10 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 70.6 | 99.9 |
| 4 | Nathan Eovaldi | 116.0 | 10 | 3 | 25.6% | 4.7% | 1.71 | 2.77 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 57.4 | 79.7 | 161.0 | 14 | 5 | 24.8% | 5.2% | 2.29 | 3.14 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 69.1 | 93.4 |
| 5 | Max Fried | 144.0 | 12 | 5 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 2.94 | 3.17 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 50.5 | 71.8 | 191.0 | 16 | 7 | 22.9% | 6.4% | 3.02 | 3.26 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 65.5 | 91.8 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 145.2 | 11 | 5 | 24.4% | 8.2% | 2.97 | 2.97 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 50.3 | 75.1 | 190.2 | 14 | 7 | 24.3% | 8.2% | 3.12 | 3.12 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 62.3 | 91.5 |
| 7 | Joe Ryan | 139.0 | 12 | 5 | 28.2% | 5.0% | 2.72 | 3.23 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 54.8 | 74.5 | 182.0 | 15 | 8 | 27.8% | 5.0% | 2.97 | 3.42 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 66.0 | 87.9 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | 135.1 | 10 | 5 | 27.2% | 5.7% | 2.86 | 3.53 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 49.0 | 63.5 | 172.1 | 13 | 6 | 27.2% | 5.8% | 3.03 | 3.58 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 59.5 | 77.0 |
| 9 | Bryan Woo | 146.0 | 10 | 6 | 25.3% | 4.5% | 3.08 | 3.68 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 47.5 | 60.8 | 191.0 | 13 | 8 | 24.9% | 4.6% | 3.20 | 3.73 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 59.3 | 75.6 |
| 10 | Drew Rasmussen | 117.2 | 10 | 5 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 2.60 | 3.33 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 45.0 | 60.3 | 154.2 | 13 | 7 | 22.2% | 5.6% | 2.85 | 3.44 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 54.8 | 73.1 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Paul Skenes | 148.0 | 7 | 9 | 28.6% | 6.2% | 2.13 | 2.51 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 62.6 | 95.3 | 193.0 | 10 | 11 | 28.4% | 6.3% | 2.38 | 2.66 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 77.2 | 116.6 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 144.2 | 10 | 5 | 33.5% | 5.5% | 2.68 | 2.92 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 58.2 | 83.6 | 198.2 | 14 | 7 | 32.2% | 5.9% | 2.85 | 3.05 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 75.5 | 107.6 |
| 3 | Cristopher Sánchez | 150.2 | 11 | 4 | 25.8% | 5.9% | 2.45 | 2.73 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 61.0 | 90.7 | 194.2 | 14 | 6 | 25.1% | 5.9% | 2.68 | 2.91 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 73.1 | 107.4 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 153.2 | 10 | 9 | 26.2% | 5.5% | 3.34 | 2.62 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 46.6 | 78.8 | 202.2 | 13 | 11 | 25.2% | 5.5% | 3.37 | 2.81 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 59.5 | 97.7 |
| 5 | Matthew Boyd | 135.2 | 11 | 5 | 22.6% | 5.4% | 2.45 | 3.13 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 53.9 | 74.5 | 183.2 | 14 | 8 | 22.7% | 5.7% | 2.79 | 3.35 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 65.5 | 89.0 |
| 6 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 126.2 | 10 | 8 | 28.3% | 8.6% | 2.84 | 3.06 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 47.8 | 68.0 | 171.2 | 14 | 10 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.04 | 3.22 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 61.0 | 85.4 |
| 7 | Nick Pivetta | 141.1 | 12 | 4 | 25.9% | 6.5% | 2.87 | 3.26 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 52.1 | 71.5 | 185.1 | 15 | 6 | 25.8% | 6.5% | 3.21 | 3.55 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 60.7 | 80.1 |
| 8 | Freddy Peralta | 136.2 | 14 | 5 | 26.1% | 8.8% | 2.90 | 3.74 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 53.1 | 64.7 | 182.2 | 17 | 8 | 26.0% | 8.8% | 3.15 | 3.84 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 64.0 | 77.4 |
| 9 | Robbie Ray | 148.0 | 9 | 6 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.98 | 3.73 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 49.2 | 61.9 | 195.0 | 12 | 9 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 3.32 | 3.89 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 57.7 | 70.8 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 135.1 | 11 | 5 | 26.8% | 4.0% | 4.06 | 3.11 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 32.5 | 53.3 | 176.1 | 14 | 8 | 26.6% | 4.6% | 3.98 | 3.24 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 43.4 | 68.0 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Paul Skenes | 148.0 | 7 | 9 | 28.6% | 6.2% | 2.13 | 2.51 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 62.6 | 95.3 | 193.0 | 10 | 11 | 28.4% | 6.3% | 2.38 | 2.66 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 77.2 | 116.6 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 144.2 | 10 | 5 | 33.5% | 5.5% | 2.68 | 2.92 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 58.2 | 83.6 | 198.2 | 14 | 7 | 32.2% | 5.9% | 2.85 | 3.05 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 75.5 | 107.6 |
| 3 | Cristopher Sánchez | 150.2 | 11 | 4 | 25.8% | 5.9% | 2.45 | 2.73 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 61.0 | 90.7 | 194.2 | 14 | 6 | 25.1% | 5.9% | 2.68 | 2.91 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 73.1 | 107.4 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 153.2 | 10 | 9 | 26.2% | 5.5% | 3.34 | 2.62 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 46.6 | 78.8 | 202.2 | 13 | 11 | 25.2% | 5.5% | 3.37 | 2.81 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 59.5 | 97.7 |
| 5 | Matthew Boyd | 135.2 | 11 | 5 | 22.6% | 5.4% | 2.45 | 3.13 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 53.9 | 74.5 | 183.2 | 14 | 8 | 22.7% | 5.7% | 2.79 | 3.35 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 65.5 | 89.0 |
| 6 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 126.2 | 10 | 8 | 28.3% | 8.6% | 2.84 | 3.06 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 47.8 | 68.0 | 171.2 | 14 | 10 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.04 | 3.22 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 61.0 | 85.4 |
| 7 | Nick Pivetta | 141.1 | 12 | 4 | 25.9% | 6.5% | 2.87 | 3.26 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 52.1 | 71.5 | 185.1 | 15 | 6 | 25.8% | 6.5% | 3.21 | 3.55 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 60.7 | 80.1 |
| 8 | Freddy Peralta | 136.2 | 14 | 5 | 26.1% | 8.8% | 2.90 | 3.74 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 53.1 | 64.7 | 182.2 | 17 | 8 | 26.0% | 8.8% | 3.15 | 3.84 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 64.0 | 77.4 |
| 9 | Robbie Ray | 148.0 | 9 | 6 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.98 | 3.73 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 49.2 | 61.9 | 195.0 | 12 | 9 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 3.32 | 3.89 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 57.7 | 70.8 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 135.1 | 11 | 5 | 26.8% | 4.0% | 4.06 | 3.11 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 32.5 | 53.3 | 176.1 | 14 | 8 | 26.6% | 4.6% | 3.98 | 3.24 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 43.4 | 68.0 |
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