Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	34.2	3	2	28.8%	3.6%	2.34	2.42	1.2	1.3	15.3	23.4	189.2	14	10	29.3%	5.3%	2.89	2.86	5.8	5.2	70.0	104.7
2	Garrett Crochet	44.0	3	2	28.6%	10.3%	2.05	2.63	1.3	1.5	20.0	29.2	198.0	14	9	28.7%	8.4%	3.32	3.30	4.7	4.0	63.3	89.7
3	Hunter Brown	37.0	4	1	29.9%	5.2%	1.22	1.84	1.5	1.9	21.5	32.4	181.0	14	8	26.3%	7.7%	3.18	3.28	4.4	4.3	59.7	84.3
4	Cole Ragans	30.2	1	1	35.9%	7.0%	4.40	2.75	0.9	0.3	5.9	11.9	182.2	12	8	30.0%	8.8%	3.70	3.36	4.4	3.0	51.1	74.2
5	Max Fried	37.2	5	0	21.0%	5.7%	1.43	2.97	0.9	1.3	21.1	27.5	181.2	15	7	21.5%	7.4%	3.22	3.67	3.3	3.8	57.0	73.7
6	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.16	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.5	141.1	9	7	29.7%	5.3%	3.31	3.27	3.5	3.1	44.4	63.6
7	Joe Ryan	34.0	2	2	29.1%	3.0%	3.18	3.49	0.7	0.9	10.9	14.7	166.0	11	9	27.8%	4.9%	3.69	3.74	3.5	2.9	44.6	58.6
8	Framber Valdez	36.0	1	3	20.9%	8.8%	4.00	3.69	0.6	0.6	6.1	9.3	178.0	11	10	22.6%	8.1%	3.74	3.69	3.2	2.9	42.7	58.6
9	Pablo López	21.2	2	1	22.5%	4.5%	2.08	2.99	0.6	0.5	9.8	13.5	168.2	11	9	23.8%	5.8%	3.79	3.64	3.3	2.3	41.0	57.1
10	Jacob deGrom	33.0	1	1	25.6%	5.4%	2.73	3.78	0.6	1.0	10.8	13.5	149.0	9	7	27.4%	6.4%	3.50	3.66	3.0	3.0	41.9	55.8

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	34.2	3	2	28.8%	3.6%	2.34	2.42	1.2	1.3	15.3	23.4	189.2	14	10	29.3%	5.3%	2.89	2.86	5.8	5.2	70.0	104.7
2	Garrett Crochet	44.0	3	2	28.6%	10.3%	2.05	2.63	1.3	1.5	20.0	29.2	198.0	14	9	28.7%	8.4%	3.32	3.30	4.7	4.0	63.3	89.7
3	Hunter Brown	37.0	4	1	29.9%	5.2%	1.22	1.84	1.5	1.9	21.5	32.4	181.0	14	8	26.3%	7.7%	3.18	3.28	4.4	4.3	59.7	84.3
4	Cole Ragans	30.2	1	1	35.9%	7.0%	4.40	2.75	0.9	0.3	5.9	11.9	182.2	12	8	30.0%	8.8%	3.70	3.36	4.4	3.0	51.1	74.2
5	Max Fried	37.2	5	0	21.0%	5.7%	1.43	2.97	0.9	1.3	21.1	27.5	181.2	15	7	21.5%	7.4%	3.22	3.67	3.3	3.8	57.0	73.7
6	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.16	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.5	141.1	9	7	29.7%	5.3%	3.31	3.27	3.5	3.1	44.4	63.6
7	Joe Ryan	34.0	2	2	29.1%	3.0%	3.18	3.49	0.7	0.9	10.9	14.7	166.0	11	9	27.8%	4.9%	3.69	3.74	3.5	2.9	44.6	58.6
8	Framber Valdez	36.0	1	3	20.9%	8.8%	4.00	3.69	0.6	0.6	6.1	9.3	178.0	11	10	22.6%	8.1%	3.74	3.69	3.2	2.9	42.7	58.6
9	Pablo López	21.2	2	1	22.5%	4.5%	2.08	2.99	0.6	0.5	9.8	13.5	168.2	11	9	23.8%	5.8%	3.79	3.64	3.3	2.3	41.0	57.1
10	Jacob deGrom	33.0	1	1	25.6%	5.4%	2.73	3.78	0.6	1.0	10.8	13.5	149.0	9	7	27.4%	6.4%	3.50	3.66	3.0	3.0	41.9	55.8

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	37.2	3	2	27.5%	2.8%	2.39	1.75	1.6	1.2	15.7	27.2	193.2	14	9	27.7%	6.1%	2.93	2.73	6.1	5.2	69.2	107.3
2	Logan Webb	41.1	3	2	29.9%	6.6%	2.83	1.77	1.5	1.1	15.7	28.2	205.1	15	10	23.6%	5.6%	3.20	2.77	5.9	4.6	64.4	103.9
3	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	34.0	3	2	32.6%	8.3%	1.06	2.29	1.2	1.6	20.3	28.7	163.0	13	8	27.6%	7.0%	2.93	2.89	4.5	4.2	59.7	88.9
4	Zack Wheeler	44.0	2	1	32.8%	5.2%	3.48	3.31	1.0	1.1	12.7	18.5	212.0	14	9	27.9%	6.4%	3.48	3.47	4.9	4.3	61.9	86.1
5	Michael King	33.0	3	1	29.6%	8.1%	2.18	2.93	1.0	1.2	15.5	21.3	182.0	13	9	27.3%	8.1%	3.36	3.46	4.2	3.8	56.5	77.5
6	Freddy Peralta	39.1	3	2	25.6%	8.8%	2.52	3.79	0.7	1.4	15.8	18.9	187.1	13	10	26.9%	8.7%	3.51	3.88	3.4	3.8	54.5	67.3
7	Spencer Schwellenbach	37.2	1	2	22.0%	4.0%	2.87	3.27	0.7	1.0	11.1	16.3	177.2	11	9	23.0%	5.2%	3.60	3.49	3.7	3.0	45.5	65.4
8	MacKenzie Gore	41.0	2	3	35.8%	5.5%	3.51	2.52	1.3	0.9	12.4	21.4	196.0	11	12	28.6%	8.2%	4.04	3.54	4.0	2.5	44.5	65.3
9	Nick Pivetta	35.1	5	1	29.3%	6.0%	1.78	2.29	1.3	1.6	19.6	28.3	171.1	14	9	27.2%	7.2%	3.68	3.72	3.4	3.2	48.7	63.6
10	Chris Sale	28.1	1	2	27.3%	6.8%	5.40	3.64	0.5	0.0	1.8	4.5	185.1	12	9	27.4%	7.0%	4.13	3.46	4.0	2.1	41.3	62.6

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	37.2	3	2	27.5%	2.8%	2.39	1.75	1.6	1.2	15.7	27.2	193.2	14	9	27.7%	6.1%	2.93	2.73	6.1	5.2	69.2	107.3
2	Logan Webb	41.1	3	2	29.9%	6.6%	2.83	1.77	1.5	1.1	15.7	28.2	205.1	15	10	23.6%	5.6%	3.20	2.77	5.9	4.6	64.4	103.9
3	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	34.0	3	2	32.6%	8.3%	1.06	2.29	1.2	1.6	20.3	28.7	163.0	13	8	27.6%	7.0%	2.93	2.89	4.5	4.2	59.7	88.9
4	Zack Wheeler	44.0	2	1	32.8%	5.2%	3.48	3.31	1.0	1.1	12.7	18.5	212.0	14	9	27.9%	6.4%	3.48	3.47	4.9	4.3	61.9	86.1
5	Michael King	33.0	3	1	29.6%	8.1%	2.18	2.93	1.0	1.2	15.5	21.3	182.0	13	9	27.3%	8.1%	3.36	3.46	4.2	3.8	56.5	77.5
6	Freddy Peralta	39.1	3	2	25.6%	8.8%	2.52	3.79	0.7	1.4	15.8	18.9	187.1	13	10	26.9%	8.7%	3.51	3.88	3.4	3.8	54.5	67.3
7	Spencer Schwellenbach	37.2	1	2	22.0%	4.0%	2.87	3.27	0.7	1.0	11.1	16.3	177.2	11	9	23.0%	5.2%	3.60	3.49	3.7	3.0	45.5	65.4
8	MacKenzie Gore	41.0	2	3	35.8%	5.5%	3.51	2.52	1.3	0.9	12.4	21.4	196.0	11	12	28.6%	8.2%	4.04	3.54	4.0	2.5	44.5	65.3
9	Nick Pivetta	35.1	5	1	29.3%	6.0%	1.78	2.29	1.3	1.6	19.6	28.3	171.1	14	9	27.2%	7.2%	3.68	3.72	3.4	3.2	48.7	63.6
10	Chris Sale	28.1	1	2	27.3%	6.8%	5.40	3.64	0.5	0.0	1.8	4.5	185.1	12	9	27.4%	7.0%	4.13	3.46	4.0	2.1	41.3	62.6

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG