Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	102.0	9	2	32.1%	3.3%	2.29	2.11	3.8	3.8	46.5	73.6	201.0	17	6	30.6%	4.4%	2.60	2.50	6.7	6.5	83.4	128.1
2	Garrett Crochet	109.1	7	4	31.3%	7.2%	2.06	2.53	3.4	4.3	50.2	74.2	190.1	13	8	31.3%	7.4%	2.55	2.76	5.5	6.3	78.0	114.8
3	Max Fried	108.0	10	2	24.5%	4.9%	1.92	2.74	2.9	3.9	51.4	72.5	204.0	17	6	23.6%	6.0%	2.60	3.15	4.9	5.8	79.4	110.0
4	Hunter Brown	98.0	8	3	32.1%	7.6%	1.74	2.68	2.9	4.6	49.8	69.7	188.0	15	8	29.0%	7.9%	2.63	3.15	4.7	5.9	75.6	103.8
5	Jacob deGrom	95.1	8	2	25.9%	5.5%	2.08	3.02	2.4	4.0	43.1	58.7	171.1	13	5	27.7%	5.6%	2.57	3.12	4.3	5.6	68.1	94.3
6	Framber Valdez	103.0	8	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.88	3.04	2.5	3.2	36.7	53.4	201.0	15	9	24.0%	8.3%	3.13	3.31	4.3	5.1	65.2	91.8
7	Kris Bubic	91.0	6	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.18	2.52	2.9	3.3	39.1	59.1	174.0	11	9	24.5%	7.5%	3.00	3.15	4.2	4.3	57.6	83.7
8	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	157.1	10	7	25.2%	5.1%	2.80	3.16	3.7	4.4	55.5	78.9
9	Joe Ryan	91.1	8	3	29.1%	5.6%	2.86	3.21	2.1	2.7	35.1	48.2	177.1	13	8	28.3%	5.4%	3.30	3.49	3.8	3.9	56.6	76.5
10	Carlos Rodón	101.2	9	5	29.7%	8.5%	2.92	3.49	1.9	2.5	38.7	50.2	191.2	16	11	28.7%	8.5%	3.47	3.82	3.2	3.4	60.0	74.4

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	102.0	9	2	32.1%	3.3%	2.29	2.11	3.8	3.8	46.5	73.6	201.0	17	6	30.6%	4.4%	2.60	2.50	6.7	6.5	83.4	128.1
2	Garrett Crochet	109.1	7	4	31.3%	7.2%	2.06	2.53	3.4	4.3	50.2	74.2	190.1	13	8	31.3%	7.4%	2.55	2.76	5.5	6.3	78.0	114.8
3	Max Fried	108.0	10	2	24.5%	4.9%	1.92	2.74	2.9	3.9	51.4	72.5	204.0	17	6	23.6%	6.0%	2.60	3.15	4.9	5.8	79.4	110.0
4	Hunter Brown	98.0	8	3	32.1%	7.6%	1.74	2.68	2.9	4.6	49.8	69.7	188.0	15	8	29.0%	7.9%	2.63	3.15	4.7	5.9	75.6	103.8
5	Jacob deGrom	95.1	8	2	25.9%	5.5%	2.08	3.02	2.4	4.0	43.1	58.7	171.1	13	5	27.7%	5.6%	2.57	3.12	4.3	5.6	68.1	94.3
6	Framber Valdez	103.0	8	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.88	3.04	2.5	3.2	36.7	53.4	201.0	15	9	24.0%	8.3%	3.13	3.31	4.3	5.1	65.2	91.8
7	Kris Bubic	91.0	6	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.18	2.52	2.9	3.3	39.1	59.1	174.0	11	9	24.5%	7.5%	3.00	3.15	4.2	4.3	57.6	83.7
8	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	157.1	10	7	25.2%	5.1%	2.80	3.16	3.7	4.4	55.5	78.9
9	Joe Ryan	91.1	8	3	29.1%	5.6%	2.86	3.21	2.1	2.7	35.1	48.2	177.1	13	8	28.3%	5.4%	3.30	3.49	3.8	3.9	56.6	76.5
10	Carlos Rodón	101.2	9	5	29.7%	8.5%	2.92	3.49	1.9	2.5	38.7	50.2	191.2	16	11	28.7%	8.5%	3.47	3.82	3.2	3.4	60.0	74.4

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	107.1	7	5	27.7%	5.3%	2.52	2.24	3.4	3.2	42.7	69.7	211.1	14	10	24.7%	5.5%	2.94	2.68	5.7	5.3	71.9	114.5
2	Paul Skenes	106.0	4	7	26.9%	7.1%	2.12	2.49	3.4	4.2	43.0	66.7	197.0	10	11	27.9%	6.9%	2.51	2.71	6.0	6.8	75.1	114.2
3	Zack Wheeler	99.0	7	3	32.9%	6.5%	2.55	2.66	3.0	3.6	41.1	61.3	202.0	14	7	29.9%	6.4%	2.94	3.07	5.5	5.9	72.8	104.8
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	89.2	7	6	28.4%	8.7%	2.61	3.23	2.0	2.8	35.9	48.6	174.2	14	10	27.5%	7.7%	2.94	3.22	4.1	4.6	63.6	88.5
5	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.65	2.5	3.0	36.1	54.4	147.1	9	7	30.3%	6.8%	2.81	2.87	3.9	4.5	55.0	81.7
6	Cristopher Sánchez	93.2	6	2	26.6%	7.2%	2.79	2.94	2.4	3.0	34.1	50.4	180.2	11	6	24.2%	7.0%	3.14	3.26	4.0	4.6	56.4	81.4
7	MacKenzie Gore	99.0	3	8	31.8%	7.4%	3.09	2.91	2.8	2.9	31.4	48.9	186.0	8	13	29.4%	8.1%	3.39	3.30	4.3	4.3	53.6	78.4
8	Spencer Schwellenbach	103.2	6	4	23.5%	4.2%	3.21	3.40	1.8	2.1	30.4	43.1	194.2	12	8	23.6%	4.7%	3.42	3.47	3.5	3.8	53.7	75.9
9	Kodai Senga	73.2	7	3	23.9%	10.6%	1.47	3.18	1.7	3.4	38.8	49.6	138.2	12	6	24.6%	10.4%	2.53	3.54	2.6	4.3	56.3	71.1
10	Freddy Peralta	93.0	8	4	25.5%	8.8%	2.90	3.90	1.6	2.8	34.3	40.5	182.0	14	9	26.5%	8.8%	3.31	3.93	3.1	4.2	57.9	69.4

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	107.1	7	5	27.7%	5.3%	2.52	2.24	3.4	3.2	42.7	69.7	211.1	14	10	24.7%	5.5%	2.94	2.68	5.7	5.3	71.9	114.5
2	Paul Skenes	106.0	4	7	26.9%	7.1%	2.12	2.49	3.4	4.2	43.0	66.7	197.0	10	11	27.9%	6.9%	2.51	2.71	6.0	6.8	75.1	114.2
3	Zack Wheeler	99.0	7	3	32.9%	6.5%	2.55	2.66	3.0	3.6	41.1	61.3	202.0	14	7	29.9%	6.4%	2.94	3.07	5.5	5.9	72.8	104.8
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	89.2	7	6	28.4%	8.7%	2.61	3.23	2.0	2.8	35.9	48.6	174.2	14	10	27.5%	7.7%	2.94	3.22	4.1	4.6	63.6	88.5
5	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.65	2.5	3.0	36.1	54.4	147.1	9	7	30.3%	6.8%	2.81	2.87	3.9	4.5	55.0	81.7
6	Cristopher Sánchez	93.2	6	2	26.6%	7.2%	2.79	2.94	2.4	3.0	34.1	50.4	180.2	11	6	24.2%	7.0%	3.14	3.26	4.0	4.6	56.4	81.4
7	MacKenzie Gore	99.0	3	8	31.8%	7.4%	3.09	2.91	2.8	2.9	31.4	48.9	186.0	8	13	29.4%	8.1%	3.39	3.30	4.3	4.3	53.6	78.4
8	Spencer Schwellenbach	103.2	6	4	23.5%	4.2%	3.21	3.40	1.8	2.1	30.4	43.1	194.2	12	8	23.6%	4.7%	3.42	3.47	3.5	3.8	53.7	75.9
9	Kodai Senga	73.2	7	3	23.9%	10.6%	1.47	3.18	1.7	3.4	38.8	49.6	138.2	12	6	24.6%	10.4%	2.53	3.54	2.6	4.3	56.3	71.1
10	Freddy Peralta	93.0	8	4	25.5%	8.8%	2.90	3.90	1.6	2.8	34.3	40.5	182.0	14	9	26.5%	8.8%	3.31	3.93	3.1	4.2	57.9	69.4

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG