Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	145.1	11	3	33.8%	3.8%	2.35	2.13	5.5	5.5	64.4	102.7	195.1	15	5	33.1%	4.1%	2.44	2.33	7.2	7.1	84.5	131.6
2	Garrett Crochet	152.1	13	5	30.8%	6.5%	2.48	2.54	4.9	5.4	66.0	99.1	194.1	16	7	30.9%	6.7%	2.64	2.64	6.1	6.5	80.3	120.4
3	Hunter Brown	143.0	10	5	29.4%	7.7%	2.45	2.92	4.0	5.3	58.9	84.1	191.0	13	8	28.8%	7.8%	2.73	3.08	5.0	6.2	72.3	102.5
4	Framber Valdez	145.2	11	5	24.4%	8.2%	2.97	2.97	3.8	4.3	50.3	75.1	197.2	15	7	24.4%	8.1%	3.05	3.08	4.9	5.4	66.6	97.9
5	Nathan Eovaldi	116.0	10	3	25.6%	4.7%	1.71	2.77	3.3	5.1	57.4	79.7	160.0	13	5	25.2%	5.1%	2.25	3.02	4.2	5.9	68.8	95.2
6	Max Fried	144.0	12	5	22.8%	6.1%	2.94	3.17	3.3	2.9	50.5	71.8	195.0	16	7	22.8%	6.2%	3.05	3.29	4.4	4.0	65.8	91.9
7	Joe Ryan	139.0	12	5	28.2%	5.0%	2.72	3.23	3.4	4.4	54.8	74.5	186.0	15	8	28.0%	5.0%	3.00	3.38	4.4	5.2	66.5	89.7
8	Jacob deGrom	135.1	10	5	27.2%	5.7%	2.86	3.53	2.8	4.2	49.0	63.5	176.1	13	7	27.6%	5.7%	2.96	3.50	3.9	5.2	62.2	81.8
9	Bryan Woo	146.0	10	6	25.3%	4.5%	3.08	3.68	2.6	3.4	47.5	60.8	191.0	13	8	24.9%	4.6%	3.20	3.73	3.4	4.1	59.3	75.6
10	Drew Rasmussen	117.2	10	5	22.5%	5.5%	2.60	3.33	2.7	4.1	45.0	60.3	157.2	13	7	22.6%	5.7%	2.85	3.39	3.5	4.8	55.8	75.3

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	145.1	11	3	33.8%	3.8%	2.35	2.13	5.5	5.5	64.4	102.7	195.1	15	5	33.1%	4.1%	2.44	2.33	7.2	7.1	84.5	131.6
2	Garrett Crochet	152.1	13	5	30.8%	6.5%	2.48	2.54	4.9	5.4	66.0	99.1	194.1	16	7	30.9%	6.7%	2.64	2.64	6.1	6.5	80.3	120.4
3	Hunter Brown	143.0	10	5	29.4%	7.7%	2.45	2.92	4.0	5.3	58.9	84.1	191.0	13	8	28.8%	7.8%	2.73	3.08	5.0	6.2	72.3	102.5
4	Framber Valdez	145.2	11	5	24.4%	8.2%	2.97	2.97	3.8	4.3	50.3	75.1	197.2	15	7	24.4%	8.1%	3.05	3.08	4.9	5.4	66.6	97.9
5	Nathan Eovaldi	116.0	10	3	25.6%	4.7%	1.71	2.77	3.3	5.1	57.4	79.7	160.0	13	5	25.2%	5.1%	2.25	3.02	4.2	5.9	68.8	95.2
6	Max Fried	144.0	12	5	22.8%	6.1%	2.94	3.17	3.3	2.9	50.5	71.8	195.0	16	7	22.8%	6.2%	3.05	3.29	4.4	4.0	65.8	91.9
7	Joe Ryan	139.0	12	5	28.2%	5.0%	2.72	3.23	3.4	4.4	54.8	74.5	186.0	15	8	28.0%	5.0%	3.00	3.38	4.4	5.2	66.5	89.7
8	Jacob deGrom	135.1	10	5	27.2%	5.7%	2.86	3.53	2.8	4.2	49.0	63.5	176.1	13	7	27.6%	5.7%	2.96	3.50	3.9	5.2	62.2	81.8
9	Bryan Woo	146.0	10	6	25.3%	4.5%	3.08	3.68	2.6	3.4	47.5	60.8	191.0	13	8	24.9%	4.6%	3.20	3.73	3.4	4.1	59.3	75.6
10	Drew Rasmussen	117.2	10	5	22.5%	5.5%	2.60	3.33	2.7	4.1	45.0	60.3	157.2	13	7	22.6%	5.7%	2.85	3.39	3.5	4.8	55.8	75.3

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	148.0	7	9	28.6%	6.2%	2.13	2.51	4.7	6.1	62.6	95.3	193.0	10	11	28.8%	6.3%	2.28	2.64	6.1	7.4	79.4	119.2
2	Cristopher Sánchez	150.2	11	4	25.8%	5.9%	2.45	2.73	4.3	5.7	61.0	90.7	201.2	14	6	25.1%	6.0%	2.68	2.95	5.5	6.9	75.3	110.1
3	Zack Wheeler	144.2	10	5	33.5%	5.5%	2.68	2.92	4.0	5.0	58.2	83.6	197.2	14	7	32.3%	5.7%	2.78	3.03	5.3	6.4	76.8	109.0
4	Logan Webb	153.2	10	9	26.2%	5.5%	3.34	2.62	4.0	3.1	46.6	78.8	205.2	13	12	25.2%	5.5%	3.33	2.79	5.2	4.2	61.4	100.6
5	Matthew Boyd	135.2	11	5	22.6%	5.4%	2.45	3.13	3.4	4.5	53.9	74.5	183.2	14	7	22.7%	5.9%	2.79	3.37	4.2	5.3	65.5	88.6
6	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	126.2	10	8	28.3%	8.6%	2.84	3.06	3.4	3.7	47.8	68.0	171.2	14	10	27.9%	8.2%	2.99	3.18	4.5	4.7	62.2	87.3
7	Nick Pivetta	141.1	12	4	25.9%	6.5%	2.87	3.26	3.3	4.0	52.1	71.5	188.1	15	6	26.4%	6.7%	3.11	3.44	4.1	4.7	63.9	86.1
8	Freddy Peralta	136.2	14	5	26.1%	8.8%	2.90	3.74	2.6	4.2	53.1	64.7	182.2	17	7	26.2%	8.9%	3.10	3.83	3.3	5.0	65.1	78.8
9	Robbie Ray	148.0	9	6	25.3%	9.3%	2.98	3.73	2.0	3.9	49.2	61.9	193.0	12	9	25.4%	9.1%	3.22	3.89	2.4	4.5	59.5	72.5
10	Sonny Gray	135.1	11	5	26.8%	4.0%	4.06	3.11	3.2	1.7	32.5	53.3	181.1	14	7	26.5%	4.6%	3.97	3.22	4.1	2.5	44.4	70.2

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	148.0	7	9	28.6%	6.2%	2.13	2.51	4.7	6.1	62.6	95.3	193.0	10	11	28.8%	6.3%	2.28	2.64	6.1	7.4	79.4	119.2
2	Cristopher Sánchez	150.2	11	4	25.8%	5.9%	2.45	2.73	4.3	5.7	61.0	90.7	201.2	14	6	25.1%	6.0%	2.68	2.95	5.5	6.9	75.3	110.1
3	Zack Wheeler	144.2	10	5	33.5%	5.5%	2.68	2.92	4.0	5.0	58.2	83.6	197.2	14	7	32.3%	5.7%	2.78	3.03	5.3	6.4	76.8	109.0
4	Logan Webb	153.2	10	9	26.2%	5.5%	3.34	2.62	4.0	3.1	46.6	78.8	205.2	13	12	25.2%	5.5%	3.33	2.79	5.2	4.2	61.4	100.6
5	Matthew Boyd	135.2	11	5	22.6%	5.4%	2.45	3.13	3.4	4.5	53.9	74.5	183.2	14	7	22.7%	5.9%	2.79	3.37	4.2	5.3	65.5	88.6
6	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	126.2	10	8	28.3%	8.6%	2.84	3.06	3.4	3.7	47.8	68.0	171.2	14	10	27.9%	8.2%	2.99	3.18	4.5	4.7	62.2	87.3
7	Nick Pivetta	141.1	12	4	25.9%	6.5%	2.87	3.26	3.3	4.0	52.1	71.5	188.1	15	6	26.4%	6.7%	3.11	3.44	4.1	4.7	63.9	86.1
8	Freddy Peralta	136.2	14	5	26.1%	8.8%	2.90	3.74	2.6	4.2	53.1	64.7	182.2	17	7	26.2%	8.9%	3.10	3.83	3.3	5.0	65.1	78.8
9	Robbie Ray	148.0	9	6	25.3%	9.3%	2.98	3.73	2.0	3.9	49.2	61.9	193.0	12	9	25.4%	9.1%	3.22	3.89	2.4	4.5	59.5	72.5
10	Sonny Gray	135.1	11	5	26.8%	4.0%	4.06	3.11	3.2	1.7	32.5	53.3	181.1	14	7	26.5%	4.6%	3.97	3.22	4.1	2.5	44.4	70.2

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG