Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	34.2	3	2	28.8%	3.6%	2.34	2.42	1.2	1.3	15.3	23.4	199.2	15	8	29.4%	5.1%	2.79	2.79	5.9	5.6	76.0	114.1
2	Garrett Crochet	44.0	3	2	28.6%	10.3%	2.05	2.63	1.3	1.5	20.0	29.2	173.0	12	8	31.3%	7.9%	2.91	2.81	4.9	4.6	64.3	96.7
3	Max Fried	37.2	5	0	21.0%	5.7%	1.43	2.97	0.9	1.3	21.1	27.5	183.2	16	7	22.5%	6.7%	3.04	3.40	3.9	4.1	62.9	85.4
4	Hunter Brown	37.0	4	1	29.9%	5.2%	1.22	1.84	1.5	1.9	21.5	32.4	177.0	14	9	26.2%	7.8%	3.20	3.31	4.0	3.9	58.4	81.7
5	Cole Ragans	30.2	1	1	35.9%	7.0%	4.40	2.75	0.9	0.3	5.9	11.9	181.2	11	8	29.1%	8.5%	3.62	3.27	4.1	3.3	50.7	75.5
6	Framber Valdez	36.0	1	3	20.9%	8.8%	4.00	3.69	0.6	0.6	6.1	9.3	191.0	12	10	23.1%	7.7%	3.44	3.45	3.6	3.6	52.7	75.0
7	Jacob deGrom	33.0	1	1	25.6%	5.4%	2.73	3.78	0.6	1.0	10.8	13.5	148.0	8	5	30.7%	5.4%	2.98	3.07	4.0	3.8	50.8	74.3
8	Pablo López	21.2	2	1	22.5%	4.5%	2.08	2.99	0.6	0.5	9.8	13.5	175.2	12	9	25.2%	5.8%	3.54	3.49	3.5	2.6	49.0	68.8
9	Drew Rasmussen	25.2	1	1	27.8%	6.2%	2.10	2.30	0.8	1.0	10.5	16.8	147.2	9	7	24.7%	5.9%	3.17	3.13	2.9	2.8	45.5	68.0
10	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.16	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.5	148.1	8	6	28.2%	5.1%	3.22	3.21	3.2	2.8	45.7	67.0

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	34.2	3	2	28.8%	3.6%	2.34	2.42	1.2	1.3	15.3	23.4	199.2	15	8	29.4%	5.1%	2.79	2.79	5.9	5.6	76.0	114.1
2	Garrett Crochet	44.0	3	2	28.6%	10.3%	2.05	2.63	1.3	1.5	20.0	29.2	173.0	12	8	31.3%	7.9%	2.91	2.81	4.9	4.6	64.3	96.7
3	Max Fried	37.2	5	0	21.0%	5.7%	1.43	2.97	0.9	1.3	21.1	27.5	183.2	16	7	22.5%	6.7%	3.04	3.40	3.9	4.1	62.9	85.4
4	Hunter Brown	37.0	4	1	29.9%	5.2%	1.22	1.84	1.5	1.9	21.5	32.4	177.0	14	9	26.2%	7.8%	3.20	3.31	4.0	3.9	58.4	81.7
5	Cole Ragans	30.2	1	1	35.9%	7.0%	4.40	2.75	0.9	0.3	5.9	11.9	181.2	11	8	29.1%	8.5%	3.62	3.27	4.1	3.3	50.7	75.5
6	Framber Valdez	36.0	1	3	20.9%	8.8%	4.00	3.69	0.6	0.6	6.1	9.3	191.0	12	10	23.1%	7.7%	3.44	3.45	3.6	3.6	52.7	75.0
7	Jacob deGrom	33.0	1	1	25.6%	5.4%	2.73	3.78	0.6	1.0	10.8	13.5	148.0	8	5	30.7%	5.4%	2.98	3.07	4.0	3.8	50.8	74.3
8	Pablo López	21.2	2	1	22.5%	4.5%	2.08	2.99	0.6	0.5	9.8	13.5	175.2	12	9	25.2%	5.8%	3.54	3.49	3.5	2.6	49.0	68.8
9	Drew Rasmussen	25.2	1	1	27.8%	6.2%	2.10	2.30	0.8	1.0	10.5	16.8	147.2	9	7	24.7%	5.9%	3.17	3.13	2.9	2.8	45.5	68.0
10	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.16	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.5	148.1	8	6	28.2%	5.1%	3.22	3.21	3.2	2.8	45.7	67.0

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	37.2	3	2	27.5%	2.8%	2.39	1.75	1.6	1.2	15.7	27.2	186.2	13	8	30.4%	6.0%	2.70	2.49	6.1	5.8	72.7	114.4
2	Logan Webb	41.1	3	2	29.9%	6.6%	2.83	1.77	1.5	1.1	15.7	28.2	212.1	14	11	22.4%	5.7%	3.31	2.96	4.9	4.5	61.7	97.9
3	Zack Wheeler	44.0	2	1	32.8%	5.2%	3.48	3.31	1.0	1.1	12.7	18.5	214.0	14	8	27.9%	6.1%	3.32	3.37	5.0	5.0	65.9	92.8
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	34.0	3	2	32.6%	8.3%	1.06	2.29	1.2	1.6	20.3	28.7	167.0	13	7	27.5%	6.7%	2.91	3.09	4.1	4.2	60.9	87.1
5	Chris Sale	28.1	1	2	27.3%	6.8%	5.40	3.64	0.5	0.0	1.8	4.5	179.1	12	8	29.2%	6.5%	3.51	3.11	4.0	3.7	53.4	81.0
6	Michael King	33.0	3	1	29.6%	8.1%	2.18	2.93	1.0	1.2	15.5	21.3	181.0	13	8	27.0%	8.4%	3.28	3.53	3.7	3.8	57.7	77.2
7	Sonny Gray	35.0	3	0	23.9%	5.1%	3.60	3.82	0.5	0.8	9.8	12.4	187.0	13	8	25.4%	6.5%	3.61	3.47	3.4	3.4	50.9	72.4
8	Spencer Schwellenbach	37.2	1	2	22.0%	4.0%	2.87	3.27	0.7	1.0	11.1	16.3	185.2	12	9	23.4%	5.2%	3.54	3.47	3.3	3.5	49.5	70.7
9	Dylan Cease	29.2	1	2	26.5%	8.8%	5.76	3.18	0.7	-0.3	0.4	4.8	187.2	12	10	28.3%	9.0%	3.88	3.47	3.7	2.4	47.0	68.5
10	Clay Holmes	30.2	3	1	27.5%	9.9%	2.64	2.20	1.0	0.7	12.9	20.8	162.2	12	8	23.1%	9.2%	3.49	3.33	2.9	2.4	46.4	67.5

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	37.2	3	2	27.5%	2.8%	2.39	1.75	1.6	1.2	15.7	27.2	186.2	13	8	30.4%	6.0%	2.70	2.49	6.1	5.8	72.7	114.4
2	Logan Webb	41.1	3	2	29.9%	6.6%	2.83	1.77	1.5	1.1	15.7	28.2	212.1	14	11	22.4%	5.7%	3.31	2.96	4.9	4.5	61.7	97.9
3	Zack Wheeler	44.0	2	1	32.8%	5.2%	3.48	3.31	1.0	1.1	12.7	18.5	214.0	14	8	27.9%	6.1%	3.32	3.37	5.0	5.0	65.9	92.8
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	34.0	3	2	32.6%	8.3%	1.06	2.29	1.2	1.6	20.3	28.7	167.0	13	7	27.5%	6.7%	2.91	3.09	4.1	4.2	60.9	87.1
5	Chris Sale	28.1	1	2	27.3%	6.8%	5.40	3.64	0.5	0.0	1.8	4.5	179.1	12	8	29.2%	6.5%	3.51	3.11	4.0	3.7	53.4	81.0
6	Michael King	33.0	3	1	29.6%	8.1%	2.18	2.93	1.0	1.2	15.5	21.3	181.0	13	8	27.0%	8.4%	3.28	3.53	3.7	3.8	57.7	77.2
7	Sonny Gray	35.0	3	0	23.9%	5.1%	3.60	3.82	0.5	0.8	9.8	12.4	187.0	13	8	25.4%	6.5%	3.61	3.47	3.4	3.4	50.9	72.4
8	Spencer Schwellenbach	37.2	1	2	22.0%	4.0%	2.87	3.27	0.7	1.0	11.1	16.3	185.2	12	9	23.4%	5.2%	3.54	3.47	3.3	3.5	49.5	70.7
9	Dylan Cease	29.2	1	2	26.5%	8.8%	5.76	3.18	0.7	-0.3	0.4	4.8	187.2	12	10	28.3%	9.0%	3.88	3.47	3.7	2.4	47.0	68.5
10	Clay Holmes	30.2	3	1	27.5%	9.9%	2.64	2.20	1.0	0.7	12.9	20.8	162.2	12	8	23.1%	9.2%	3.49	3.33	2.9	2.4	46.4	67.5

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG