Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	163.2	12	6	30.9%	6.5%	2.09	2.62	5.1	6.2	75.9	110.1	191.2	14	7	30.2%	6.7%	2.30	2.79	5.7	6.8	83.9	120.4
2	Dylan Cease	150.1	9	5	36.1%	10.8%	2.33	2.42	5.1	5.3	66.9	101.6	178.1	11	6	35.3%	10.6%	2.52	2.59	5.8	5.8	75.5	113.3
3	Parker Messick	161.0	11	8	25.3%	6.8%	2.46	3.05	4.3	5.7	63.6	89.5	189.0	13	9	24.8%	6.9%	2.67	3.20	4.8	6.2	70.2	97.5
4	Drew Rasmussen	146.1	14	5	26.0%	4.7%	2.95	2.90	4.1	4.5	54.1	80.1	173.1	16	6	25.6%	4.8%	3.01	3.03	4.7	5.1	62.2	90.6
5	Sonny Gray	143.2	16	4	21.8%	6.3%	2.82	3.54	2.7	5.0	55.6	71.0	169.2	18	5	22.3%	6.3%	2.97	3.57	3.2	5.5	62.3	79.8
6	Logan Gilbert	160.1	11	8	26.0%	6.3%	3.42	3.64	2.8	3.7	46.8	62.1	190.1	13	9	26.3%	6.2%	3.45	3.66	3.4	4.2	55.1	72.9
7	Reid Detmers	155.0	4	8	27.8%	7.0%	3.54	3.19	3.8	3.5	37.9	60.4	181.0	5	10	27.6%	7.2%	3.63	3.29	4.2	3.8	42.8	67.1
8	Payton Tolle	125.1	8	6	27.9%	6.9%	3.09	3.20	3.3	3.5	41.8	59.9	150.1	9	7	27.4%	7.1%	3.23	3.32	3.8	4.0	46.9	66.6
9	Gavin Williams	156.0	12	7	32.3%	7.8%	3.98	3.72	2.6	2.6	41.4	55.0	183.0	14	8	31.5%	7.9%	3.93	3.73	3.0	3.1	49.0	64.6
10	José Soriano	151.1	11	7	23.7%	10.6%	3.45	3.76	2.5	3.3	43.6	55.9	179.1	13	9	23.5%	10.5%	3.46	3.84	2.9	3.9	51.3	64.4

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	163.2	12	6	30.9%	6.5%	2.09	2.62	5.1	6.2	75.9	110.1	191.2	14	7	30.2%	6.7%	2.30	2.79	5.7	6.8	83.9	120.4
2	Dylan Cease	150.1	9	5	36.1%	10.8%	2.33	2.42	5.1	5.3	66.9	101.6	178.1	11	6	35.3%	10.6%	2.52	2.59	5.8	5.8	75.5	113.3
3	Parker Messick	161.0	11	8	25.3%	6.8%	2.46	3.05	4.3	5.7	63.6	89.5	189.0	13	9	24.8%	6.9%	2.67	3.20	4.8	6.2	70.2	97.5
4	Drew Rasmussen	146.1	14	5	26.0%	4.7%	2.95	2.90	4.1	4.5	54.1	80.1	173.1	16	6	25.6%	4.8%	3.01	3.03	4.7	5.1	62.2	90.6
5	Sonny Gray	143.2	16	4	21.8%	6.3%	2.82	3.54	2.7	5.0	55.6	71.0	169.2	18	5	22.3%	6.3%	2.97	3.57	3.2	5.5	62.3	79.8
6	Logan Gilbert	160.1	11	8	26.0%	6.3%	3.42	3.64	2.8	3.7	46.8	62.1	190.1	13	9	26.3%	6.2%	3.45	3.66	3.4	4.2	55.1	72.9
7	Reid Detmers	155.0	4	8	27.8%	7.0%	3.54	3.19	3.8	3.5	37.9	60.4	181.0	5	10	27.6%	7.2%	3.63	3.29	4.2	3.8	42.8	67.1
8	Payton Tolle	125.1	8	6	27.9%	6.9%	3.09	3.20	3.3	3.5	41.8	59.9	150.1	9	7	27.4%	7.1%	3.23	3.32	3.8	4.0	46.9	66.6
9	Gavin Williams	156.0	12	7	32.3%	7.8%	3.98	3.72	2.6	2.6	41.4	55.0	183.0	14	8	31.5%	7.9%	3.93	3.73	3.0	3.1	49.0	64.6
10	José Soriano	151.1	11	7	23.7%	10.6%	3.45	3.76	2.5	3.3	43.6	55.9	179.1	13	9	23.5%	10.5%	3.46	3.84	2.9	3.9	51.3	64.4

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	151.0	14	5	38.9%	6.1%	1.73	2.14	5.7	6.3	82.7	122.4	177.0	16	6	37.9%	6.5%	1.93	2.35	6.4	7.0	92.1	134.4
2	Cristopher Sánchez	175.1	16	4	27.8%	5.4%	2.52	2.57	5.7	6.1	74.9	112.5	206.1	18	5	27.4%	5.4%	2.62	2.69	6.6	7.0	84.6	126.0
3	Chris Sale	144.0	13	9	30.7%	4.9%	2.06	2.18	5.3	5.7	69.7	106.8	172.0	15	10	30.7%	5.1%	2.20	2.37	6.1	6.5	80.1	120.9
4	Jesús Luzardo	163.0	12	5	30.3%	7.5%	3.09	2.80	4.9	4.2	57.8	88.7	193.0	14	6	29.9%	7.4%	3.17	2.90	5.7	4.8	66.2	100.6
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	158.0	12	8	25.2%	5.9%	2.56	3.26	4.1	5.8	61.3	83.1	186.0	14	9	25.3%	6.1%	2.66	3.33	4.8	6.4	70.2	94.4
6	Chase Burns	145.1	15	3	28.9%	8.4%	2.79	3.12	4.2	4.5	59.8	82.0	169.1	17	4	28.8%	8.4%	2.92	3.23	4.8	5.0	66.6	90.5
7	Eduardo Rodriguez	162.0	14	4	18.0%	7.9%	2.50	3.70	2.9	5.7	61.9	76.3	188.0	16	5	18.1%	7.9%	2.78	3.81	3.2	5.9	66.0	80.4
8	Paul Skenes	145.0	9	11	29.5%	6.9%	3.79	2.96	4.1	2.4	38.0	62.8	173.0	11	12	29.5%	6.8%	3.64	2.94	5.0	3.3	48.3	78.3
9	Cade Cavalli	152.2	12	5	27.7%	7.2%	3.12	3.37	3.3	3.3	53.0	72.2	177.2	13	6	27.0%	7.2%	3.24	3.50	3.7	3.7	57.9	77.7
10	Nolan McLean	155.2	10	8	26.7%	9.5%	3.06	3.59	3.0	3.1	52.0	67.8	182.2	12	9	26.6%	9.4%	3.15	3.66	3.5	3.6	59.4	76.5

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	151.0	14	5	38.9%	6.1%	1.73	2.14	5.7	6.3	82.7	122.4	177.0	16	6	37.9%	6.5%	1.93	2.35	6.4	7.0	92.1	134.4
2	Cristopher Sánchez	175.1	16	4	27.8%	5.4%	2.52	2.57	5.7	6.1	74.9	112.5	206.1	18	5	27.4%	5.4%	2.62	2.69	6.6	7.0	84.6	126.0
3	Chris Sale	144.0	13	9	30.7%	4.9%	2.06	2.18	5.3	5.7	69.7	106.8	172.0	15	10	30.7%	5.1%	2.20	2.37	6.1	6.5	80.1	120.9
4	Jesús Luzardo	163.0	12	5	30.3%	7.5%	3.09	2.80	4.9	4.2	57.8	88.7	193.0	14	6	29.9%	7.4%	3.17	2.90	5.7	4.8	66.2	100.6
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	158.0	12	8	25.2%	5.9%	2.56	3.26	4.1	5.8	61.3	83.1	186.0	14	9	25.3%	6.1%	2.66	3.33	4.8	6.4	70.2	94.4
6	Chase Burns	145.1	15	3	28.9%	8.4%	2.79	3.12	4.2	4.5	59.8	82.0	169.1	17	4	28.8%	8.4%	2.92	3.23	4.8	5.0	66.6	90.5
7	Eduardo Rodriguez	162.0	14	4	18.0%	7.9%	2.50	3.70	2.9	5.7	61.9	76.3	188.0	16	5	18.1%	7.9%	2.78	3.81	3.2	5.9	66.0	80.4
8	Paul Skenes	145.0	9	11	29.5%	6.9%	3.79	2.96	4.1	2.4	38.0	62.8	173.0	11	12	29.5%	6.8%	3.64	2.94	5.0	3.3	48.3	78.3
9	Cade Cavalli	152.2	12	5	27.7%	7.2%	3.12	3.37	3.3	3.3	53.0	72.2	177.2	13	6	27.0%	7.2%	3.24	3.50	3.7	3.7	57.9	77.7
10	Nolan McLean	155.2	10	8	26.7%	9.5%	3.06	3.59	3.0	3.1	52.0	67.8	182.2	12	9	26.6%	9.4%	3.15	3.66	3.5	3.6	59.4	76.5

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG