Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	102.0	9	2	32.1%	3.3%	2.29	2.11	3.8	3.8	46.5	73.6	200.0	17	6	31.2%	4.2%	2.43	2.43	6.7	6.9	87.4	133.4
2	Garrett Crochet	109.1	7	4	31.3%	7.2%	2.06	2.52	3.4	4.3	50.2	74.2	188.1	14	8	31.2%	7.3%	2.48	2.77	5.5	6.5	79.7	115.9
3	Max Fried	108.0	10	2	24.5%	4.9%	1.92	2.74	3.0	3.9	51.4	72.5	200.0	17	6	24.4%	5.8%	2.52	3.09	5.0	5.9	80.7	112.0
4	Hunter Brown	91.0	8	3	31.6%	8.1%	1.88	2.84	2.5	4.0	45.4	62.2	179.0	15	7	29.5%	8.2%	2.56	3.15	4.4	5.9	74.6	101.5
5	Framber Valdez	103.0	8	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.88	3.04	2.5	3.2	36.7	53.4	200.0	15	8	24.4%	8.4%	3.11	3.23	4.5	5.2	66.0	94.2
6	Jacob deGrom	95.1	8	2	25.9%	5.5%	2.08	3.02	2.4	4.0	43.1	58.7	167.1	14	6	26.8%	5.9%	2.53	3.26	4.0	5.6	68.1	91.2
7	Kris Bubic	91.0	6	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.18	2.52	2.9	3.3	39.1	59.1	172.0	8	7	24.7%	7.4%	2.98	3.15	4.2	4.3	54.6	80.4
8	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	154.1	10	8	25.1%	5.3%	2.74	3.12	3.8	4.5	55.8	79.4
9	Joe Ryan	91.1	8	3	29.1%	5.6%	2.86	3.20	2.1	2.7	35.1	48.2	175.1	14	8	28.0%	5.7%	3.18	3.54	3.6	4.1	59.3	77.9
10	Carlos Rodón	101.2	9	5	29.7%	8.5%	2.92	3.49	1.9	2.5	38.7	50.2	190.2	15	10	28.3%	8.4%	3.30	3.77	3.3	3.8	62.2	77.6

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	102.0	9	2	32.1%	3.3%	2.29	2.11	3.8	3.8	46.5	73.6	200.0	17	6	31.2%	4.2%	2.43	2.43	6.7	6.9	87.4	133.4
2	Garrett Crochet	109.1	7	4	31.3%	7.2%	2.06	2.52	3.4	4.3	50.2	74.2	188.1	14	8	31.2%	7.3%	2.48	2.77	5.5	6.5	79.7	115.9
3	Max Fried	108.0	10	2	24.5%	4.9%	1.92	2.74	3.0	3.9	51.4	72.5	200.0	17	6	24.4%	5.8%	2.52	3.09	5.0	5.9	80.7	112.0
4	Hunter Brown	91.0	8	3	31.6%	8.1%	1.88	2.84	2.5	4.0	45.4	62.2	179.0	15	7	29.5%	8.2%	2.56	3.15	4.4	5.9	74.6	101.5
5	Framber Valdez	103.0	8	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.88	3.04	2.5	3.2	36.7	53.4	200.0	15	8	24.4%	8.4%	3.11	3.23	4.5	5.2	66.0	94.2
6	Jacob deGrom	95.1	8	2	25.9%	5.5%	2.08	3.02	2.4	4.0	43.1	58.7	167.1	14	6	26.8%	5.9%	2.53	3.26	4.0	5.6	68.1	91.2
7	Kris Bubic	91.0	6	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.18	2.52	2.9	3.3	39.1	59.1	172.0	8	7	24.7%	7.4%	2.98	3.15	4.2	4.3	54.6	80.4
8	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	154.1	10	8	25.1%	5.3%	2.74	3.12	3.8	4.5	55.8	79.4
9	Joe Ryan	91.1	8	3	29.1%	5.6%	2.86	3.20	2.1	2.7	35.1	48.2	175.1	14	8	28.0%	5.7%	3.18	3.54	3.6	4.1	59.3	77.9
10	Carlos Rodón	101.2	9	5	29.7%	8.5%	2.92	3.49	1.9	2.5	38.7	50.2	190.2	15	10	28.3%	8.4%	3.30	3.77	3.3	3.8	62.2	77.6

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	107.1	7	5	27.7%	5.3%	2.52	2.23	3.4	3.2	42.7	69.7	208.1	14	9	25.5%	5.3%	2.85	2.68	5.7	5.3	73.9	116.1
2	Paul Skenes	106.0	4	7	26.9%	7.1%	2.12	2.49	3.4	4.2	43.0	66.7	192.0	11	11	28.0%	7.1%	2.39	2.70	5.8	6.9	77.3	115.7
3	Zack Wheeler	99.0	7	3	32.9%	6.5%	2.55	2.66	3.0	3.6	41.1	61.3	201.0	15	7	30.6%	6.5%	2.78	3.03	5.5	6.3	77.9	110.8
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	89.2	7	6	28.4%	8.7%	2.61	3.23	2.0	2.8	35.9	48.6	174.2	13	10	27.4%	8.3%	2.99	3.41	3.8	4.6	61.5	82.7
5	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.65	2.5	3.0	36.1	54.5	147.1	9	7	30.4%	6.9%	2.81	2.93	3.9	4.3	55.2	80.9
6	Cristopher Sánchez	87.2	6	2	25.3%	7.7%	2.87	3.14	2.0	2.7	31.0	44.3	175.2	13	6	24.3%	7.2%	3.13	3.31	3.9	4.5	57.6	80.9
7	Spencer Schwellenbach	103.2	6	4	23.5%	4.2%	3.21	3.40	1.8	2.1	30.4	43.1	193.2	13	9	23.6%	5.0%	3.35	3.51	3.5	4.0	56.2	77.6
8	Robbie Ray	92.1	8	2	27.6%	9.5%	2.83	3.26	1.7	2.5	35.6	48.3	173.1	14	7	26.9%	9.3%	3.27	3.58	2.8	3.6	57.1	74.7
9	MacKenzie Gore	99.0	3	8	31.8%	7.4%	3.09	2.91	2.8	2.9	31.4	48.9	183.0	9	13	29.2%	7.9%	3.49	3.39	4.3	4.0	51.8	74.4
10	Freddy Peralta	93.0	8	4	25.5%	8.8%	2.90	3.90	1.6	2.8	34.3	40.5	180.0	14	9	26.1%	8.7%	3.20	3.97	3.0	4.5	59.5	70.2

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	107.1	7	5	27.7%	5.3%	2.52	2.23	3.4	3.2	42.7	69.7	208.1	14	9	25.5%	5.3%	2.85	2.68	5.7	5.3	73.9	116.1
2	Paul Skenes	106.0	4	7	26.9%	7.1%	2.12	2.49	3.4	4.2	43.0	66.7	192.0	11	11	28.0%	7.1%	2.39	2.70	5.8	6.9	77.3	115.7
3	Zack Wheeler	99.0	7	3	32.9%	6.5%	2.55	2.66	3.0	3.6	41.1	61.3	201.0	15	7	30.6%	6.5%	2.78	3.03	5.5	6.3	77.9	110.8
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	89.2	7	6	28.4%	8.7%	2.61	3.23	2.0	2.8	35.9	48.6	174.2	13	10	27.4%	8.3%	2.99	3.41	3.8	4.6	61.5	82.7
5	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.65	2.5	3.0	36.1	54.5	147.1	9	7	30.4%	6.9%	2.81	2.93	3.9	4.3	55.2	80.9
6	Cristopher Sánchez	87.2	6	2	25.3%	7.7%	2.87	3.14	2.0	2.7	31.0	44.3	175.2	13	6	24.3%	7.2%	3.13	3.31	3.9	4.5	57.6	80.9
7	Spencer Schwellenbach	103.2	6	4	23.5%	4.2%	3.21	3.40	1.8	2.1	30.4	43.1	193.2	13	9	23.6%	5.0%	3.35	3.51	3.5	4.0	56.2	77.6
8	Robbie Ray	92.1	8	2	27.6%	9.5%	2.83	3.26	1.7	2.5	35.6	48.3	173.1	14	7	26.9%	9.3%	3.27	3.58	2.8	3.6	57.1	74.7
9	MacKenzie Gore	99.0	3	8	31.8%	7.4%	3.09	2.91	2.8	2.9	31.4	48.9	183.0	9	13	29.2%	7.9%	3.49	3.39	4.3	4.0	51.8	74.4
10	Freddy Peralta	93.0	8	4	25.5%	8.8%	2.90	3.90	1.6	2.8	34.3	40.5	180.0	14	9	26.1%	8.7%	3.20	3.97	3.0	4.5	59.5	70.2

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG