Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	145.1	11	3	33.8%	3.8%	2.35	2.13	5.5	5.5	64.4	102.7	193.1	15	5	33.1%	4.2%	2.37	2.33	7.0	7.0	85.4	132.0
2	Garrett Crochet	152.1	13	5	30.8%	6.5%	2.48	2.54	4.9	5.4	66.0	99.1	192.1	16	7	30.8%	6.6%	2.57	2.67	6.0	6.5	81.0	120.1
3	Hunter Brown	143.0	10	5	29.4%	7.7%	2.45	2.92	4.0	5.3	58.9	84.1	189.0	13	7	28.8%	7.8%	2.67	3.09	5.0	6.3	73.2	102.9
4	Framber Valdez	145.2	11	5	24.4%	8.2%	2.97	2.97	3.8	4.3	50.3	75.1	196.2	15	7	24.4%	8.2%	3.07	3.09	5.0	5.5	66.0	97.0
5	Nathan Eovaldi	116.0	10	3	25.6%	4.7%	1.71	2.77	3.3	5.1	57.4	79.7	161.0	13	5	24.9%	5.2%	2.24	3.05	4.2	5.9	69.2	95.2
6	Max Fried	144.0	12	5	22.8%	6.1%	2.94	3.17	3.3	2.9	50.5	71.8	193.0	16	7	23.0%	6.3%	3.03	3.30	4.3	3.9	65.8	91.6
7	Joe Ryan	139.0	12	5	28.2%	5.0%	2.72	3.23	3.4	4.4	54.8	74.5	184.0	15	7	27.8%	5.1%	2.93	3.40	4.3	5.2	67.3	89.8
8	Jacob deGrom	135.1	10	5	27.2%	5.7%	2.86	3.53	2.8	4.2	49.0	63.5	173.1	13	7	27.4%	5.9%	2.91	3.58	3.7	5.2	62.2	80.0
9	Bryan Woo	146.0	10	6	25.3%	4.5%	3.08	3.68	2.6	3.4	47.5	60.8	187.0	13	8	25.3%	4.7%	3.13	3.67	3.3	4.2	60.3	77.5
10	Drew Rasmussen	117.2	10	5	22.5%	5.5%	2.60	3.33	2.7	4.1	45.0	60.3	158.2	11	6	22.9%	5.8%	2.78	3.40	3.5	4.8	55.5	74.9

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	145.1	11	3	33.8%	3.8%	2.35	2.13	5.5	5.5	64.4	102.7	193.1	15	5	33.1%	4.2%	2.37	2.33	7.0	7.0	85.4	132.0
2	Garrett Crochet	152.1	13	5	30.8%	6.5%	2.48	2.54	4.9	5.4	66.0	99.1	192.1	16	7	30.8%	6.6%	2.57	2.67	6.0	6.5	81.0	120.1
3	Hunter Brown	143.0	10	5	29.4%	7.7%	2.45	2.92	4.0	5.3	58.9	84.1	189.0	13	7	28.8%	7.8%	2.67	3.09	5.0	6.3	73.2	102.9
4	Framber Valdez	145.2	11	5	24.4%	8.2%	2.97	2.97	3.8	4.3	50.3	75.1	196.2	15	7	24.4%	8.2%	3.07	3.09	5.0	5.5	66.0	97.0
5	Nathan Eovaldi	116.0	10	3	25.6%	4.7%	1.71	2.77	3.3	5.1	57.4	79.7	161.0	13	5	24.9%	5.2%	2.24	3.05	4.2	5.9	69.2	95.2
6	Max Fried	144.0	12	5	22.8%	6.1%	2.94	3.17	3.3	2.9	50.5	71.8	193.0	16	7	23.0%	6.3%	3.03	3.30	4.3	3.9	65.8	91.6
7	Joe Ryan	139.0	12	5	28.2%	5.0%	2.72	3.23	3.4	4.4	54.8	74.5	184.0	15	7	27.8%	5.1%	2.93	3.40	4.3	5.2	67.3	89.8
8	Jacob deGrom	135.1	10	5	27.2%	5.7%	2.86	3.53	2.8	4.2	49.0	63.5	173.1	13	7	27.4%	5.9%	2.91	3.58	3.7	5.2	62.2	80.0
9	Bryan Woo	146.0	10	6	25.3%	4.5%	3.08	3.68	2.6	3.4	47.5	60.8	187.0	13	8	25.3%	4.7%	3.13	3.67	3.3	4.2	60.3	77.5
10	Drew Rasmussen	117.2	10	5	22.5%	5.5%	2.60	3.33	2.7	4.1	45.0	60.3	158.2	11	6	22.9%	5.8%	2.78	3.40	3.5	4.8	55.5	74.9

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	148.0	7	9	28.6%	6.2%	2.13	2.51	4.7	6.1	62.6	95.3	191.0	11	11	28.7%	6.3%	2.26	2.66	5.9	7.4	80.2	119.3
2	Cristopher Sánchez	150.2	11	4	25.8%	5.9%	2.45	2.73	4.3	5.7	61.0	90.7	198.2	15	6	25.5%	6.1%	2.63	2.87	5.5	6.9	76.9	112.9
3	Zack Wheeler	144.2	10	5	33.5%	5.5%	2.68	2.92	4.0	5.0	58.2	83.6	196.2	14	7	32.4%	5.7%	2.75	3.01	5.3	6.4	77.5	110.0
4	Logan Webb	153.2	10	9	26.2%	5.5%	3.34	2.62	4.0	3.1	46.6	78.8	203.2	14	11	25.5%	5.4%	3.36	2.76	5.1	4.1	61.5	100.9
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	126.2	10	8	28.3%	8.6%	2.84	3.06	3.4	3.7	47.8	68.0	171.2	13	10	28.0%	8.5%	2.94	3.22	4.4	4.7	62.3	86.7
6	Matthew Boyd	135.2	11	5	22.6%	5.4%	2.45	3.13	3.4	4.5	53.9	74.5	179.2	13	7	22.7%	5.8%	2.81	3.39	4.0	5.1	63.2	85.4
7	Nick Pivetta	141.1	12	4	25.9%	6.5%	2.87	3.26	3.3	4.0	52.1	71.5	187.1	15	7	26.0%	6.7%	3.07	3.49	4.1	4.7	64.1	85.2
8	Freddy Peralta	136.2	14	5	26.1%	8.8%	2.90	3.74	2.6	4.2	53.1	64.7	181.2	17	7	26.4%	8.8%	3.02	3.81	3.3	5.1	66.7	80.8
9	Robbie Ray	148.0	9	6	25.3%	9.3%	2.98	3.73	2.0	3.9	49.2	61.9	191.0	12	9	25.2%	9.3%	3.20	3.88	2.5	4.5	59.2	72.4
10	Sonny Gray	135.1	11	5	26.8%	4.0%	4.06	3.11	3.2	1.7	32.5	53.3	182.1	14	7	26.3%	4.6%	3.95	3.23	4.1	2.5	44.8	70.6

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	148.0	7	9	28.6%	6.2%	2.13	2.51	4.7	6.1	62.6	95.3	191.0	11	11	28.7%	6.3%	2.26	2.66	5.9	7.4	80.2	119.3
2	Cristopher Sánchez	150.2	11	4	25.8%	5.9%	2.45	2.73	4.3	5.7	61.0	90.7	198.2	15	6	25.5%	6.1%	2.63	2.87	5.5	6.9	76.9	112.9
3	Zack Wheeler	144.2	10	5	33.5%	5.5%	2.68	2.92	4.0	5.0	58.2	83.6	196.2	14	7	32.4%	5.7%	2.75	3.01	5.3	6.4	77.5	110.0
4	Logan Webb	153.2	10	9	26.2%	5.5%	3.34	2.62	4.0	3.1	46.6	78.8	203.2	14	11	25.5%	5.4%	3.36	2.76	5.1	4.1	61.5	100.9
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	126.2	10	8	28.3%	8.6%	2.84	3.06	3.4	3.7	47.8	68.0	171.2	13	10	28.0%	8.5%	2.94	3.22	4.4	4.7	62.3	86.7
6	Matthew Boyd	135.2	11	5	22.6%	5.4%	2.45	3.13	3.4	4.5	53.9	74.5	179.2	13	7	22.7%	5.8%	2.81	3.39	4.0	5.1	63.2	85.4
7	Nick Pivetta	141.1	12	4	25.9%	6.5%	2.87	3.26	3.3	4.0	52.1	71.5	187.1	15	7	26.0%	6.7%	3.07	3.49	4.1	4.7	64.1	85.2
8	Freddy Peralta	136.2	14	5	26.1%	8.8%	2.90	3.74	2.6	4.2	53.1	64.7	181.2	17	7	26.4%	8.8%	3.02	3.81	3.3	5.1	66.7	80.8
9	Robbie Ray	148.0	9	6	25.3%	9.3%	2.98	3.73	2.0	3.9	49.2	61.9	191.0	12	9	25.2%	9.3%	3.20	3.88	2.5	4.5	59.2	72.4
10	Sonny Gray	135.1	11	5	26.8%	4.0%	4.06	3.11	3.2	1.7	32.5	53.3	182.1	14	7	26.3%	4.6%	3.95	3.23	4.1	2.5	44.8	70.6

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG