Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	34.2	3	2	28.8%	3.6%	2.34	2.42	1.2	1.3	15.3	23.4	193.2	16	8	29.2%	5.1%	2.60	2.76	5.5	5.7	79.5	117.0
2	Garrett Crochet	44.0	3	2	28.6%	10.3%	2.05	2.63	1.3	1.5	20.0	29.2	174.0	14	9	29.9%	8.4%	2.90	2.97	4.6	4.7	66.1	95.8
3	Hunter Brown	37.0	4	1	29.9%	5.2%	1.22	1.84	1.5	1.9	21.5	32.4	172.0	14	8	27.3%	7.5%	2.88	3.10	4.4	4.6	64.2	91.0
4	Max Fried	37.2	5	0	21.0%	5.7%	1.43	2.97	0.9	1.3	21.1	27.5	178.2	15	7	22.4%	6.7%	3.02	3.46	3.6	3.8	60.9	81.5
5	Framber Valdez	36.0	1	3	20.9%	8.8%	4.00	3.69	0.6	0.6	6.1	9.3	185.0	11	10	23.4%	7.9%	3.45	3.46	3.7	3.4	50.5	71.8
6	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.16	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.5	141.1	9	6	28.3%	5.3%	2.99	3.10	3.2	3.2	48.8	70.7
7	Cole Ragans	30.2	1	1	35.9%	7.0%	4.40	2.75	0.9	0.3	5.9	11.9	175.2	11	9	28.7%	8.5%	3.69	3.43	3.8	3.1	48.1	68.9
8	Pablo López	21.2	2	1	22.5%	4.5%	2.08	2.99	0.6	0.5	9.8	13.5	167.2	12	9	24.5%	5.9%	3.49	3.52	3.3	2.6	47.9	66.2
9	Nathan Eovaldi	36.2	2	2	27.1%	2.1%	2.21	2.64	1.0	1.1	15.1	22.7	175.2	11	10	23.7%	5.7%	3.48	3.58	3.3	3.0	47.8	65.8
10	Drew Rasmussen	25.2	1	1	27.8%	6.2%	2.10	2.30	0.8	1.0	10.5	16.8	145.2	5	4	25.6%	6.5%	3.09	3.16	2.9	2.8	42.9	64.6

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	34.2	3	2	28.8%	3.6%	2.34	2.42	1.2	1.3	15.3	23.4	193.2	16	8	29.2%	5.1%	2.60	2.76	5.5	5.7	79.5	117.0
2	Garrett Crochet	44.0	3	2	28.6%	10.3%	2.05	2.63	1.3	1.5	20.0	29.2	174.0	14	9	29.9%	8.4%	2.90	2.97	4.6	4.7	66.1	95.8
3	Hunter Brown	37.0	4	1	29.9%	5.2%	1.22	1.84	1.5	1.9	21.5	32.4	172.0	14	8	27.3%	7.5%	2.88	3.10	4.4	4.6	64.2	91.0
4	Max Fried	37.2	5	0	21.0%	5.7%	1.43	2.97	0.9	1.3	21.1	27.5	178.2	15	7	22.4%	6.7%	3.02	3.46	3.6	3.8	60.9	81.5
5	Framber Valdez	36.0	1	3	20.9%	8.8%	4.00	3.69	0.6	0.6	6.1	9.3	185.0	11	10	23.4%	7.9%	3.45	3.46	3.7	3.4	50.5	71.8
6	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.16	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.5	141.1	9	6	28.3%	5.3%	2.99	3.10	3.2	3.2	48.8	70.7
7	Cole Ragans	30.2	1	1	35.9%	7.0%	4.40	2.75	0.9	0.3	5.9	11.9	175.2	11	9	28.7%	8.5%	3.69	3.43	3.8	3.1	48.1	68.9
8	Pablo López	21.2	2	1	22.5%	4.5%	2.08	2.99	0.6	0.5	9.8	13.5	167.2	12	9	24.5%	5.9%	3.49	3.52	3.3	2.6	47.9	66.2
9	Nathan Eovaldi	36.2	2	2	27.1%	2.1%	2.21	2.64	1.0	1.1	15.1	22.7	175.2	11	10	23.7%	5.7%	3.48	3.58	3.3	3.0	47.8	65.8
10	Drew Rasmussen	25.2	1	1	27.8%	6.2%	2.10	2.30	0.8	1.0	10.5	16.8	145.2	5	4	25.6%	6.5%	3.09	3.16	2.9	2.8	42.9	64.6

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	37.2	3	2	27.5%	2.8%	2.39	1.75	1.6	1.2	15.7	27.2	179.2	16	8	29.5%	5.7%	2.60	2.54	5.7	5.7	75.1	114.3
2	Logan Webb	41.1	3	2	29.9%	6.6%	2.83	1.77	1.5	1.1	15.7	28.2	203.1	15	9	24.0%	5.6%	3.19	2.86	5.0	4.4	64.9	102.0
3	Zack Wheeler	44.0	2	1	32.8%	5.2%	3.48	3.31	1.0	1.1	12.7	18.5	209.0	14	8	28.5%	6.0%	3.23	3.40	4.6	5.0	67.6	93.1
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	34.0	3	2	32.6%	8.3%	1.06	2.29	1.2	1.6	20.3	28.7	164.0	13	8	28.6%	7.6%	2.69	3.06	4.1	4.5	64.9	91.2
5	Hunter Greene	36.2	3	2	30.1%	4.2%	2.70	3.52	0.8	1.3	14.6	18.6	180.2	14	9	30.2%	7.6%	3.19	3.62	3.8	4.8	62.7	80.4
6	Freddy Peralta	39.1	3	2	25.6%	8.8%	2.52	3.79	0.7	1.4	15.8	18.9	180.1	14	9	27.1%	8.4%	3.24	3.81	3.0	4.2	59.5	73.3
7	Clay Holmes	30.2	3	1	27.5%	9.9%	2.64	2.20	1.0	0.7	12.9	20.8	168.2	8	4	24.4%	9.1%	3.25	3.22	3.3	3.0	49.1	73.1
8	Chris Sale	28.1	1	2	27.3%	6.8%	5.40	3.64	0.5	0.0	1.8	4.5	176.1	12	9	28.3%	6.8%	3.67	3.35	3.6	3.2	49.1	71.6
9	Jesús Luzardo	36.1	3	0	28.3%	6.9%	1.73	2.01	1.4	1.4	18.3	28.3	170.1	9	5	26.6%	7.2%	3.28	3.41	3.7	3.6	51.0	71.5
10	Michael King	33.0	3	1	29.6%	8.1%	2.18	2.93	1.0	1.2	15.5	21.3	178.0	13	9	26.5%	8.2%	3.39	3.64	3.3	3.5	54.6	71.5

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	37.2	3	2	27.5%	2.8%	2.39	1.75	1.6	1.2	15.7	27.2	179.2	16	8	29.5%	5.7%	2.60	2.54	5.7	5.7	75.1	114.3
2	Logan Webb	41.1	3	2	29.9%	6.6%	2.83	1.77	1.5	1.1	15.7	28.2	203.1	15	9	24.0%	5.6%	3.19	2.86	5.0	4.4	64.9	102.0
3	Zack Wheeler	44.0	2	1	32.8%	5.2%	3.48	3.31	1.0	1.1	12.7	18.5	209.0	14	8	28.5%	6.0%	3.23	3.40	4.6	5.0	67.6	93.1
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	34.0	3	2	32.6%	8.3%	1.06	2.29	1.2	1.6	20.3	28.7	164.0	13	8	28.6%	7.6%	2.69	3.06	4.1	4.5	64.9	91.2
5	Hunter Greene	36.2	3	2	30.1%	4.2%	2.70	3.52	0.8	1.3	14.6	18.6	180.2	14	9	30.2%	7.6%	3.19	3.62	3.8	4.8	62.7	80.4
6	Freddy Peralta	39.1	3	2	25.6%	8.8%	2.52	3.79	0.7	1.4	15.8	18.9	180.1	14	9	27.1%	8.4%	3.24	3.81	3.0	4.2	59.5	73.3
7	Clay Holmes	30.2	3	1	27.5%	9.9%	2.64	2.20	1.0	0.7	12.9	20.8	168.2	8	4	24.4%	9.1%	3.25	3.22	3.3	3.0	49.1	73.1
8	Chris Sale	28.1	1	2	27.3%	6.8%	5.40	3.64	0.5	0.0	1.8	4.5	176.1	12	9	28.3%	6.8%	3.67	3.35	3.6	3.2	49.1	71.6
9	Jesús Luzardo	36.1	3	0	28.3%	6.9%	1.73	2.01	1.4	1.4	18.3	28.3	170.1	9	5	26.6%	7.2%	3.28	3.41	3.7	3.6	51.0	71.5
10	Michael King	33.0	3	1	29.6%	8.1%	2.18	2.93	1.0	1.2	15.5	21.3	178.0	13	9	26.5%	8.2%	3.39	3.64	3.3	3.5	54.6	71.5

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG