Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Cam Schlittler | 178.2 | 13 | 6 | 31.4% | 6.0% | 2.01 | 2.61 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 84.3 | 121.8 | 192.2 | 14 | 7 | 31.1% | 6.1% | 2.10 | 2.73 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 88.9 | 126.9 |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | 161.1 | 10 | 5 | 35.2% | 10.4% | 2.40 | 2.48 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 70.4 | 106.6 | 176.1 | 11 | 6 | 34.9% | 10.4% | 2.45 | 2.52 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 75.8 | 114.5 |
| 3 | Parker Messick | 172.1 | 11 | 9 | 26.0% | 6.9% | 2.51 | 3.12 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 67.0 | 93.5 | 185.1 | 12 | 10 | 25.8% | 6.9% | 2.57 | 3.23 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 70.8 | 97.0 |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | 160.1 | 14 | 5 | 25.6% | 4.3% | 2.81 | 2.88 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 60.2 | 89.0 | 174.1 | 15 | 6 | 25.4% | 4.4% | 2.84 | 2.91 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 64.5 | 95.3 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 156.2 | 17 | 5 | 22.0% | 6.6% | 2.76 | 3.46 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 61.3 | 79.4 | 169.2 | 18 | 6 | 22.1% | 6.6% | 2.86 | 3.54 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 64.1 | 82.3 |
| 6 | Reid Detmers | 168.0 | 5 | 8 | 28.4% | 6.7% | 3.32 | 3.04 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 46.1 | 73.4 | 183.0 | 6 | 9 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.39 | 3.13 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 49.3 | 77.2 |
| 7 | Gavin Williams | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 33.5% | 7.8% | 3.78 | 3.49 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 49.3 | 68.2 | 183.0 | 14 | 8 | 33.1% | 7.9% | 3.74 | 3.54 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 53.9 | 73.3 |
| 8 | Payton Tolle | 137.0 | 9 | 6 | 28.9% | 6.7% | 3.15 | 3.10 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 45.4 | 66.7 | 149.0 | 10 | 7 | 28.7% | 6.7% | 3.20 | 3.20 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 48.7 | 70.3 |
| 9 | Jacob deGrom | 149.1 | 10 | 9 | 30.9% | 6.3% | 3.80 | 3.03 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 40.3 | 64.7 | 163.1 | 11 | 10 | 30.6% | 6.3% | 3.75 | 3.10 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 44.8 | 70.2 |
| 10 | Nick Martinez | 166.1 | 14 | 4 | 14.8% | 3.6% | 2.92 | 3.90 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 53.0 | 64.1 | 182.1 | 15 | 5 | 15.0% | 3.7% | 3.01 | 3.93 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 56.1 | 67.6 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Cam Schlittler | 178.2 | 13 | 6 | 31.4% | 6.0% | 2.01 | 2.61 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 84.3 | 121.8 | 192.2 | 14 | 7 | 31.1% | 6.1% | 2.10 | 2.73 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 88.9 | 126.9 |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | 161.1 | 10 | 5 | 35.2% | 10.4% | 2.40 | 2.48 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 70.4 | 106.6 | 176.1 | 11 | 6 | 34.9% | 10.4% | 2.45 | 2.52 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 75.8 | 114.5 |
| 3 | Parker Messick | 172.1 | 11 | 9 | 26.0% | 6.9% | 2.51 | 3.12 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 67.0 | 93.5 | 185.1 | 12 | 10 | 25.8% | 6.9% | 2.57 | 3.23 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 70.8 | 97.0 |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | 160.1 | 14 | 5 | 25.6% | 4.3% | 2.81 | 2.88 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 60.2 | 89.0 | 174.1 | 15 | 6 | 25.4% | 4.4% | 2.84 | 2.91 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 64.5 | 95.3 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 156.2 | 17 | 5 | 22.0% | 6.6% | 2.76 | 3.46 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 61.3 | 79.4 | 169.2 | 18 | 6 | 22.1% | 6.6% | 2.86 | 3.54 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 64.1 | 82.3 |
| 6 | Reid Detmers | 168.0 | 5 | 8 | 28.4% | 6.7% | 3.32 | 3.04 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 46.1 | 73.4 | 183.0 | 6 | 9 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.39 | 3.13 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 49.3 | 77.2 |
| 7 | Gavin Williams | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 33.5% | 7.8% | 3.78 | 3.49 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 49.3 | 68.2 | 183.0 | 14 | 8 | 33.1% | 7.9% | 3.74 | 3.54 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 53.9 | 73.3 |
| 8 | Payton Tolle | 137.0 | 9 | 6 | 28.9% | 6.7% | 3.15 | 3.10 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 45.4 | 66.7 | 149.0 | 10 | 7 | 28.7% | 6.7% | 3.20 | 3.20 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 48.7 | 70.3 |
| 9 | Jacob deGrom | 149.1 | 10 | 9 | 30.9% | 6.3% | 3.80 | 3.03 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 40.3 | 64.7 | 163.1 | 11 | 10 | 30.6% | 6.3% | 3.75 | 3.10 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 44.8 | 70.2 |
| 10 | Nick Martinez | 166.1 | 14 | 4 | 14.8% | 3.6% | 2.92 | 3.90 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 53.0 | 64.1 | 182.1 | 15 | 5 | 15.0% | 3.7% | 3.01 | 3.93 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 56.1 | 67.6 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | 161.1 | 14 | 5 | 38.3% | 6.7% | 1.95 | 2.24 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 83.3 | 123.9 | 174.1 | 15 | 6 | 38.0% | 6.9% | 2.07 | 2.30 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 87.6 | 130.1 |
| 2 | Chris Sale | 157.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.3% | 4.9% | 2.18 | 2.29 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 73.5 | 112.1 | 172.0 | 15 | 10 | 30.3% | 5.0% | 2.25 | 2.33 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 78.8 | 120.3 |
| 3 | Cristopher Sánchez | 187.1 | 17 | 5 | 27.0% | 5.4% | 2.79 | 2.72 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 73.7 | 110.6 | 203.1 | 18 | 6 | 26.9% | 5.4% | 2.83 | 2.74 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 78.4 | 118.1 |
| 4 | Jesús Luzardo | 178.2 | 14 | 5 | 30.4% | 7.2% | 2.87 | 2.78 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 68.4 | 102.6 | 189.2 | 15 | 6 | 30.3% | 7.1% | 2.94 | 2.80 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 71.3 | 107.2 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 172.0 | 13 | 8 | 26.0% | 5.9% | 2.62 | 3.34 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 66.1 | 88.3 | 189.0 | 14 | 9 | 26.0% | 5.9% | 2.71 | 3.37 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 70.4 | 94.1 |
| 6 | Chase Burns | 148.1 | 15 | 3 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 2.73 | 3.10 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 61.8 | 84.9 | 158.1 | 16 | 4 | 29.2% | 8.4% | 2.79 | 3.12 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 65.0 | 89.3 |
| 7 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 173.0 | 15 | 5 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 2.55 | 3.76 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 65.3 | 79.6 | 187.0 | 16 | 6 | 18.2% | 8.1% | 2.65 | 3.83 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 68.5 | 82.4 |
| 8 | Cade Cavalli | 164.2 | 12 | 5 | 28.2% | 7.0% | 3.12 | 3.33 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 56.7 | 78.1 | 175.2 | 13 | 6 | 28.0% | 7.1% | 3.18 | 3.37 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 59.4 | 81.4 |
| 9 | Zack Wheeler | 143.1 | 12 | 5 | 30.0% | 7.8% | 3.14 | 3.54 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 50.9 | 66.1 | 158.1 | 13 | 6 | 29.7% | 7.7% | 3.18 | 3.58 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 55.1 | 71.3 |
| 10 | Nolan McLean | 166.2 | 11 | 9 | 26.5% | 9.5% | 3.24 | 3.68 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 52.7 | 67.9 | 180.2 | 12 | 10 | 26.4% | 9.5% | 3.29 | 3.76 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 56.2 | 71.1 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | 161.1 | 14 | 5 | 38.3% | 6.7% | 1.95 | 2.24 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 83.3 | 123.9 | 174.1 | 15 | 6 | 38.0% | 6.9% | 2.07 | 2.30 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 87.6 | 130.1 |
| 2 | Chris Sale | 157.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.3% | 4.9% | 2.18 | 2.29 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 73.5 | 112.1 | 172.0 | 15 | 10 | 30.3% | 5.0% | 2.25 | 2.33 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 78.8 | 120.3 |
| 3 | Cristopher Sánchez | 187.1 | 17 | 5 | 27.0% | 5.4% | 2.79 | 2.72 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 73.7 | 110.6 | 203.1 | 18 | 6 | 26.9% | 5.4% | 2.83 | 2.74 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 78.4 | 118.1 |
| 4 | Jesús Luzardo | 178.2 | 14 | 5 | 30.4% | 7.2% | 2.87 | 2.78 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 68.4 | 102.6 | 189.2 | 15 | 6 | 30.3% | 7.1% | 2.94 | 2.80 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 71.3 | 107.2 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 172.0 | 13 | 8 | 26.0% | 5.9% | 2.62 | 3.34 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 66.1 | 88.3 | 189.0 | 14 | 9 | 26.0% | 5.9% | 2.71 | 3.37 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 70.4 | 94.1 |
| 6 | Chase Burns | 148.1 | 15 | 3 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 2.73 | 3.10 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 61.8 | 84.9 | 158.1 | 16 | 4 | 29.2% | 8.4% | 2.79 | 3.12 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 65.0 | 89.3 |
| 7 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 173.0 | 15 | 5 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 2.55 | 3.76 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 65.3 | 79.6 | 187.0 | 16 | 6 | 18.2% | 8.1% | 2.65 | 3.83 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 68.5 | 82.4 |
| 8 | Cade Cavalli | 164.2 | 12 | 5 | 28.2% | 7.0% | 3.12 | 3.33 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 56.7 | 78.1 | 175.2 | 13 | 6 | 28.0% | 7.1% | 3.18 | 3.37 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 59.4 | 81.4 |
| 9 | Zack Wheeler | 143.1 | 12 | 5 | 30.0% | 7.8% | 3.14 | 3.54 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 50.9 | 66.1 | 158.1 | 13 | 6 | 29.7% | 7.7% | 3.18 | 3.58 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 55.1 | 71.3 |
| 10 | Nolan McLean | 166.2 | 11 | 9 | 26.5% | 9.5% | 3.24 | 3.68 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 52.7 | 67.9 | 180.2 | 12 | 10 | 26.4% | 9.5% | 3.29 | 3.76 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 56.2 | 71.1 |
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