Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	102.0	9	2	32.1%	3.3%	2.29	2.11	3.8	3.8	46.5	73.6	201.0	17	5	30.9%	3.8%	2.46	2.33	7.2	6.8	86.7	135.1
2	Garrett Crochet	109.1	7	4	31.3%	7.2%	2.06	2.52	3.4	4.3	50.2	74.2	187.1	13	7	31.2%	7.4%	2.45	2.61	5.8	6.5	79.2	118.5
3	Max Fried	108.0	10	2	24.5%	4.9%	1.92	2.74	3.0	3.9	51.4	72.5	202.0	17	6	23.7%	5.7%	2.54	3.06	5.1	5.9	80.2	112.5
4	Hunter Brown	91.0	8	3	31.6%	8.1%	1.88	2.84	2.5	4.0	45.4	62.2	179.0	15	7	28.8%	8.2%	2.72	3.19	4.3	5.5	71.1	97.2
5	Framber Valdez	103.0	8	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.88	3.04	2.5	3.2	36.7	53.4	201.0	16	8	23.7%	8.6%	3.04	3.33	4.3	5.3	68.0	94.2
6	Jacob deGrom	95.1	8	2	25.9%	5.5%	2.08	3.02	2.4	4.0	43.1	58.7	164.1	13	4	27.2%	5.5%	2.57	3.10	4.2	5.5	65.5	91.0
7	Kris Bubic	91.0	6	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.18	2.52	2.9	3.3	39.1	59.1	171.0	11	9	25.2%	7.6%	2.84	2.97	4.5	4.7	60.3	89.3
8	Joe Ryan	91.1	8	3	29.1%	5.6%	2.86	3.20	2.1	2.7	35.1	48.2	174.1	14	8	28.3%	5.6%	3.25	3.42	3.9	4.0	57.9	78.8
9	Carlos Rodón	101.2	9	5	29.7%	8.5%	2.92	3.49	1.9	2.5	38.7	50.2	188.2	16	11	28.5%	8.4%	3.43	3.71	3.5	3.4	60.1	76.8
10	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	152.1	9	7	25.2%	4.9%	2.84	3.08	3.8	4.3	52.5	76.5

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	102.0	9	2	32.1%	3.3%	2.29	2.11	3.8	3.8	46.5	73.6	201.0	17	5	30.9%	3.8%	2.46	2.33	7.2	6.8	86.7	135.1
2	Garrett Crochet	109.1	7	4	31.3%	7.2%	2.06	2.52	3.4	4.3	50.2	74.2	187.1	13	7	31.2%	7.4%	2.45	2.61	5.8	6.5	79.2	118.5
3	Max Fried	108.0	10	2	24.5%	4.9%	1.92	2.74	3.0	3.9	51.4	72.5	202.0	17	6	23.7%	5.7%	2.54	3.06	5.1	5.9	80.2	112.5
4	Hunter Brown	91.0	8	3	31.6%	8.1%	1.88	2.84	2.5	4.0	45.4	62.2	179.0	15	7	28.8%	8.2%	2.72	3.19	4.3	5.5	71.1	97.2
5	Framber Valdez	103.0	8	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.88	3.04	2.5	3.2	36.7	53.4	201.0	16	8	23.7%	8.6%	3.04	3.33	4.3	5.3	68.0	94.2
6	Jacob deGrom	95.1	8	2	25.9%	5.5%	2.08	3.02	2.4	4.0	43.1	58.7	164.1	13	4	27.2%	5.5%	2.57	3.10	4.2	5.5	65.5	91.0
7	Kris Bubic	91.0	6	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.18	2.52	2.9	3.3	39.1	59.1	171.0	11	9	25.2%	7.6%	2.84	2.97	4.5	4.7	60.3	89.3
8	Joe Ryan	91.1	8	3	29.1%	5.6%	2.86	3.20	2.1	2.7	35.1	48.2	174.1	14	8	28.3%	5.6%	3.25	3.42	3.9	4.0	57.9	78.8
9	Carlos Rodón	101.2	9	5	29.7%	8.5%	2.92	3.49	1.9	2.5	38.7	50.2	188.2	16	11	28.5%	8.4%	3.43	3.71	3.5	3.4	60.1	76.8
10	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	152.1	9	7	25.2%	4.9%	2.84	3.08	3.8	4.3	52.5	76.5

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	107.1	7	5	27.7%	5.3%	2.52	2.23	3.4	3.2	42.7	69.7	209.1	15	9	25.2%	5.3%	2.75	2.62	6.0	5.8	77.1	120.9
2	Zack Wheeler	99.0	7	3	32.9%	6.5%	2.55	2.66	3.0	3.6	41.1	61.3	200.0	14	7	30.1%	6.5%	2.88	2.93	5.7	5.9	73.9	108.8
3	Paul Skenes	106.0	4	7	26.9%	7.1%	2.12	2.49	3.4	4.2	43.0	66.7	188.0	9	10	27.4%	7.1%	2.59	2.74	5.6	6.3	69.4	106.3
4	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.65	2.5	3.0	36.1	54.5	147.1	10	6	30.6%	6.9%	2.69	2.78	4.0	4.6	58.3	86.4
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	89.2	7	6	28.4%	8.7%	2.61	3.23	2.0	2.8	35.9	48.6	175.2	14	10	27.5%	7.6%	3.02	3.29	4.0	4.4	62.0	85.7
6	MacKenzie Gore	99.0	3	8	31.8%	7.4%	3.09	2.91	2.8	2.9	31.4	48.9	182.0	8	13	29.4%	7.8%	3.41	3.29	4.4	4.2	52.3	76.8
7	Spencer Schwellenbach	103.2	6	4	23.5%	4.2%	3.21	3.40	1.8	2.1	30.4	43.1	193.2	12	8	23.7%	4.4%	3.39	3.48	3.6	3.9	54.2	76.2
8	Ranger Suárez	65.0	6	2	23.0%	6.3%	2.08	2.84	1.9	2.8	29.4	41.4	151.0	13	6	22.2%	6.8%	2.86	3.28	3.6	4.4	54.2	74.7
9	Robbie Ray	92.1	8	2	27.6%	9.5%	2.83	3.26	1.7	2.5	35.6	48.3	171.1	13	6	27.0%	8.9%	3.20	3.59	2.8	3.8	56.8	74.0
10	Kodai Senga	73.2	7	3	23.9%	10.6%	1.47	3.18	1.7	3.4	38.8	49.6	137.2	12	6	24.2%	10.4%	2.42	3.47	2.8	4.5	57.5	73.3

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	107.1	7	5	27.7%	5.3%	2.52	2.23	3.4	3.2	42.7	69.7	209.1	15	9	25.2%	5.3%	2.75	2.62	6.0	5.8	77.1	120.9
2	Zack Wheeler	99.0	7	3	32.9%	6.5%	2.55	2.66	3.0	3.6	41.1	61.3	200.0	14	7	30.1%	6.5%	2.88	2.93	5.7	5.9	73.9	108.8
3	Paul Skenes	106.0	4	7	26.9%	7.1%	2.12	2.49	3.4	4.2	43.0	66.7	188.0	9	10	27.4%	7.1%	2.59	2.74	5.6	6.3	69.4	106.3
4	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.65	2.5	3.0	36.1	54.5	147.1	10	6	30.6%	6.9%	2.69	2.78	4.0	4.6	58.3	86.4
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	89.2	7	6	28.4%	8.7%	2.61	3.23	2.0	2.8	35.9	48.6	175.2	14	10	27.5%	7.6%	3.02	3.29	4.0	4.4	62.0	85.7
6	MacKenzie Gore	99.0	3	8	31.8%	7.4%	3.09	2.91	2.8	2.9	31.4	48.9	182.0	8	13	29.4%	7.8%	3.41	3.29	4.4	4.2	52.3	76.8
7	Spencer Schwellenbach	103.2	6	4	23.5%	4.2%	3.21	3.40	1.8	2.1	30.4	43.1	193.2	12	8	23.7%	4.4%	3.39	3.48	3.6	3.9	54.2	76.2
8	Ranger Suárez	65.0	6	2	23.0%	6.3%	2.08	2.84	1.9	2.8	29.4	41.4	151.0	13	6	22.2%	6.8%	2.86	3.28	3.6	4.4	54.2	74.7
9	Robbie Ray	92.1	8	2	27.6%	9.5%	2.83	3.26	1.7	2.5	35.6	48.3	171.1	13	6	27.0%	8.9%	3.20	3.59	2.8	3.8	56.8	74.0
10	Kodai Senga	73.2	7	3	23.9%	10.6%	1.47	3.18	1.7	3.4	38.8	49.6	137.2	12	6	24.2%	10.4%	2.42	3.47	2.8	4.5	57.5	73.3

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG