Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	178.2	13	6	31.4%	6.0%	2.01	2.60	5.7	7.0	84.3	122.0	194.2	14	7	31.1%	6.1%	2.13	2.71	6.0	7.4	89.2	127.9
2	Dylan Cease	161.1	10	5	35.2%	10.4%	2.40	2.47	5.5	5.4	70.4	106.7	178.1	11	6	34.9%	10.4%	2.47	2.59	5.9	5.8	76.1	114.0
3	Parker Messick	167.0	11	9	26.1%	6.8%	2.53	3.12	4.4	5.8	64.8	90.5	182.0	12	10	25.9%	6.9%	2.62	3.23	4.6	6.0	68.8	94.5
4	Drew Rasmussen	153.1	14	5	26.1%	4.5%	2.88	2.91	4.3	4.8	57.3	84.3	169.1	15	6	25.9%	4.5%	2.92	3.02	4.6	5.3	61.8	89.7
5	Sonny Gray	150.2	17	4	22.1%	6.5%	2.69	3.50	3.0	5.5	60.8	77.6	165.2	18	5	22.2%	6.5%	2.77	3.56	3.3	5.8	64.8	82.1
6	Reid Detmers	168.0	5	8	28.4%	6.7%	3.32	3.03	4.4	4.3	46.1	73.5	185.0	6	9	28.3%	6.7%	3.36	3.11	4.8	4.5	50.5	79.1
7	Gavin Williams	169.0	13	7	33.5%	7.8%	3.78	3.49	3.2	3.1	49.3	68.3	185.0	14	8	33.1%	7.9%	3.75	3.54	3.5	3.4	54.2	73.9
8	Jacob deGrom	149.1	10	9	30.9%	6.3%	3.80	3.02	4.1	3.2	40.3	64.8	165.1	11	10	30.7%	6.3%	3.76	3.08	4.5	3.6	45.1	71.1
9	Payton Tolle	137.0	9	6	28.9%	6.7%	3.15	3.10	3.7	3.8	45.4	66.8	151.0	10	7	28.6%	6.7%	3.22	3.21	4.0	4.1	48.9	70.6
10	Nick Martinez	166.1	14	4	14.8%	3.6%	2.92	3.89	2.8	5.4	53.0	64.2	184.1	15	5	14.9%	3.8%	3.03	3.94	3.1	5.6	56.2	67.6

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	178.2	13	6	31.4%	6.0%	2.01	2.60	5.7	7.0	84.3	122.0	194.2	14	7	31.1%	6.1%	2.13	2.71	6.0	7.4	89.2	127.9
2	Dylan Cease	161.1	10	5	35.2%	10.4%	2.40	2.47	5.5	5.4	70.4	106.7	178.1	11	6	34.9%	10.4%	2.47	2.59	5.9	5.8	76.1	114.0
3	Parker Messick	167.0	11	9	26.1%	6.8%	2.53	3.12	4.4	5.8	64.8	90.5	182.0	12	10	25.9%	6.9%	2.62	3.23	4.6	6.0	68.8	94.5
4	Drew Rasmussen	153.1	14	5	26.1%	4.5%	2.88	2.91	4.3	4.8	57.3	84.3	169.1	15	6	25.9%	4.5%	2.92	3.02	4.6	5.3	61.8	89.7
5	Sonny Gray	150.2	17	4	22.1%	6.5%	2.69	3.50	3.0	5.5	60.8	77.6	165.2	18	5	22.2%	6.5%	2.77	3.56	3.3	5.8	64.8	82.1
6	Reid Detmers	168.0	5	8	28.4%	6.7%	3.32	3.03	4.4	4.3	46.1	73.5	185.0	6	9	28.3%	6.7%	3.36	3.11	4.8	4.5	50.5	79.1
7	Gavin Williams	169.0	13	7	33.5%	7.8%	3.78	3.49	3.2	3.1	49.3	68.3	185.0	14	8	33.1%	7.9%	3.75	3.54	3.5	3.4	54.2	73.9
8	Jacob deGrom	149.1	10	9	30.9%	6.3%	3.80	3.02	4.1	3.2	40.3	64.8	165.1	11	10	30.7%	6.3%	3.76	3.08	4.5	3.6	45.1	71.1
9	Payton Tolle	137.0	9	6	28.9%	6.7%	3.15	3.10	3.7	3.8	45.4	66.8	151.0	10	7	28.6%	6.7%	3.22	3.21	4.0	4.1	48.9	70.6
10	Nick Martinez	166.1	14	4	14.8%	3.6%	2.92	3.89	2.8	5.4	53.0	64.2	184.1	15	5	14.9%	3.8%	3.03	3.94	3.1	5.6	56.2	67.6

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	161.1	14	5	38.3%	6.7%	1.95	2.23	6.0	6.4	83.3	124.0	176.1	15	6	38.0%	6.8%	2.04	2.35	6.4	6.7	88.9	130.9
2	Chris Sale	150.0	14	9	30.6%	4.8%	2.10	2.26	5.4	6.0	72.4	109.7	167.0	16	10	30.5%	4.9%	2.16	2.31	5.9	6.5	79.9	120.4
3	Cristopher Sánchez	187.1	17	5	27.0%	5.4%	2.79	2.72	5.8	6.0	73.7	110.8	206.1	18	6	26.8%	5.4%	2.84	2.81	6.3	6.5	79.1	117.9
4	Jesús Luzardo	178.2	14	5	30.4%	7.2%	2.87	2.77	5.5	5.2	68.4	102.7	196.2	15	6	30.3%	7.1%	2.93	2.85	6.0	5.6	73.5	109.6
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	172.0	13	8	26.0%	5.9%	2.62	3.33	4.3	6.3	66.1	88.5	191.0	14	9	26.1%	6.0%	2.69	3.37	4.8	6.7	71.6	95.7
6	Chase Burns	148.1	15	3	29.2%	8.5%	2.73	3.09	4.4	4.8	61.8	85.0	159.1	16	4	29.1%	8.5%	2.82	3.12	4.7	5.0	64.6	89.0
7	Eduardo Rodriguez	173.0	15	5	18.0%	8.0%	2.55	3.75	3.1	6.1	65.3	79.7	189.0	16	6	18.1%	8.1%	2.67	3.83	3.3	6.3	68.6	82.7
8	Cade Cavalli	158.2	12	5	27.9%	6.9%	3.12	3.29	3.6	3.5	54.8	76.1	171.2	13	6	27.7%	7.0%	3.20	3.32	3.8	3.8	57.7	80.3
9	Nolan McLean	161.2	11	8	26.7%	9.7%	3.06	3.57	3.2	3.3	54.7	71.4	177.2	12	9	26.6%	9.6%	3.14	3.64	3.4	3.6	58.4	75.4
10	Paul Skenes	155.0	10	11	28.3%	7.0%	3.83	3.08	4.2	2.6	39.6	64.0	171.0	11	12	28.3%	7.0%	3.74	3.08	4.6	3.0	45.4	72.4

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	161.1	14	5	38.3%	6.7%	1.95	2.23	6.0	6.4	83.3	124.0	176.1	15	6	38.0%	6.8%	2.04	2.35	6.4	6.7	88.9	130.9
2	Chris Sale	150.0	14	9	30.6%	4.8%	2.10	2.26	5.4	6.0	72.4	109.7	167.0	16	10	30.5%	4.9%	2.16	2.31	5.9	6.5	79.9	120.4
3	Cristopher Sánchez	187.1	17	5	27.0%	5.4%	2.79	2.72	5.8	6.0	73.7	110.8	206.1	18	6	26.8%	5.4%	2.84	2.81	6.3	6.5	79.1	117.9
4	Jesús Luzardo	178.2	14	5	30.4%	7.2%	2.87	2.77	5.5	5.2	68.4	102.7	196.2	15	6	30.3%	7.1%	2.93	2.85	6.0	5.6	73.5	109.6
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	172.0	13	8	26.0%	5.9%	2.62	3.33	4.3	6.3	66.1	88.5	191.0	14	9	26.1%	6.0%	2.69	3.37	4.8	6.7	71.6	95.7
6	Chase Burns	148.1	15	3	29.2%	8.5%	2.73	3.09	4.4	4.8	61.8	85.0	159.1	16	4	29.1%	8.5%	2.82	3.12	4.7	5.0	64.6	89.0
7	Eduardo Rodriguez	173.0	15	5	18.0%	8.0%	2.55	3.75	3.1	6.1	65.3	79.7	189.0	16	6	18.1%	8.1%	2.67	3.83	3.3	6.3	68.6	82.7
8	Cade Cavalli	158.2	12	5	27.9%	6.9%	3.12	3.29	3.6	3.5	54.8	76.1	171.2	13	6	27.7%	7.0%	3.20	3.32	3.8	3.8	57.7	80.3
9	Nolan McLean	161.2	11	8	26.7%	9.7%	3.06	3.57	3.2	3.3	54.7	71.4	177.2	12	9	26.6%	9.6%	3.14	3.64	3.4	3.6	58.4	75.4
10	Paul Skenes	155.0	10	11	28.3%	7.0%	3.83	3.08	4.2	2.6	39.6	64.0	171.0	11	12	28.3%	7.0%	3.74	3.08	4.6	3.0	45.4	72.4

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG