Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/30/14

Dave Cameron: The trade deadline is tomorrow, but the guess here is that we see most of the notable action today, as the teams in on Lester, Price, and Hamels will want to have time to pursue a Plan B. So we’ll chat for awhile, and maybe Lester will get moved while we’re talking.

Dave Cameron: The chat will start at noon, but the queue is now open.

Dave Cameron: Going to start a few minutes late.

Dave Cameron: Okay, sorry about that delay folks.

Dave Cameron: We’ll definitely go long to make up for it.

Comment From Sad Jays Fan
FanGraphs teamed up with Sporsnet.ca? Awesome! PS: For those that don’t know Rogers Communications owns Sportsnet as well as the Blue Jays. Hopefully the Blue Jays Front Office actually increases their Analytics staff from only two people now (AA went on record to in a Sportsnet.ca article earlier this season that the Jays have an analytics staff of two guys). Did Sportsnet approach Fangraphs or did Fangraphs approach Sportsnet?

Dave Cameron: I’ve been friends with Ben Nicholson-Smith for a few years, and he reached out to us a month or so ago and said they were interested in working with us. It should be a fun partnership, though I will note that it’s not an original content deal like we have with Fox, so they’ll be running articles that have appeared on FanGraphs.

Comment From American League Hustle
According to Dave Cameron’s crystal ball, for which team will Jon Lester be making his next start?

Dave Cameron: I’ll guess the Dodgers.

Comment From Oren
Jays need to add a pitcher, right?

Dave Cameron: They need to get better. A pitcher, a second baseman, whatever, it doesn’t really matter how they do it.

Comment From MITexan
Have you ever considered leveraging you statistical knowledge to bet on baseball in Vegas?

Dave Cameron: Betting on baseball requires making a very high number of bets, because the margins are very small, and Vegas is very smart.

Comment From Steve
Which team takes the AL East, in your opinion?

Dave Cameron: I’ll go with the Blue Jays.

Comment From Sirras One
I don’t quite understand front office structres. How does a GM differ from the President of Baseball Ops differ from Chief Baseball Officer differ from…etc.?

Dave Cameron: The president of baseball operations will usually be the GMs boss. The trendy new structure is to reward a GM with a job well done by making him the president, then letting his AGM that you want to keep from leaving the organization get promoted to the GM role.

Dave Cameron: For instance, in Chicago, Jed Hoyer is the GM, but Theo Epstein still has final say.

Comment From Guest
is a macbook air a good investment?

Dave Cameron: I like mine, but I’d guess that there’s a probably a Windows version that’s a few hundred dollars cheaper and does most of the same stuff.

Comment From JTR
Cashman has been pretty vocal about wanting to strengthen the Yanks’ offense, what should we expect from him at the trade deadline? Another buy low pick like Headley and McCarthy, or putting a package together for a higher quality asset?

Dave Cameron: I could see them going after Alex Rios.

Comment From Curious George
Will Mookie Betts be starting in the majors come game one of the 2015 season? If so, at what position and will it be for the Red Sox?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think he’ll end up as the regular CF there, with Bradley as his backup.

Comment From My friend is a jerk
Interesting question for you: Would you trade Mookie Betts straight up for Oscar Taveras? I said I would, but it’s a lot closer than I originally thought.

Dave Cameron: I’d rather have Betts.

Comment From The Shovel Knight
Will Kemp get traded? Or is his huge contract / lessened production too much of an obstacle?

Dave Cameron: He’s the kind of guy that’s easy to trade in August, so there’s no real need for the Dodgers to try and do it now. They can clear the decks, and then aggressively sell Kemp next week if they want.

Comment From Greg
If you’re the Pirates, do you think it is worth giving up someone like Josh Bell for 2 months of Lester?

Dave Cameron: Yes, but Josh Bell isn’t my kind of prospect.

Comment From Jack
Burns was called up for Oakland…does he stick around. I don’t see anywhere he can play everyday, so I think he goes back down..but for now will he only be used as a late inning sub?

Dave Cameron: Nothing wrong with having a base stealing option off the bench for the stretch run. He’s not some kind of super prospect who is getting harmed by not playing everyday.

Comment From Jays fan
If you were the Jays would you do Sanchez for Lester (with the assumption Lester signs elsewhere in the offseason)

Dave Cameron: Yes, but I’m on record as thinking Aaron Sanchez is greatly overrated.

Comment From Brad
What is a reasonable return for Hamels? Thanks.

Dave Cameron: One very good prospect and some filler.

Comment From semperty
Khris Davis/Jimmy Nelson/Taylor Jungmann for Lester/Napoli: who says no?

Dave Cameron: Boston doesn’t even respond to that.

Comment From JCACA
I know the Red Sox are looking for a strong return on Lester, but in theory wouldn’t they just need to generate a bigger return then what a QO could get them?

Dave Cameron: They’ll get more than a draft pick. The question is how much more.

Comment From JCA,CA
Rangers are willing to eat money in a Rios trade, Rios must have a decent amount of value at 10 mil a year or so wouldn’t he? don’t see why teams would be scared off

Dave Cameron: The main reason would be that he’s not very good.

Comment From JerryD
If Mets waited until August to trade Colon, waivers wouldn’t be a big deal, right? Nobody would put in a claim to block him with $11M on hook next season.

Dave Cameron: I think someone would probably claim him, but then the Mets could just let him go.

Dave Cameron: So, yeah, he’s another August trade candidate.

Comment From Vince
Will the Tigers just keep overpaying for RP’s, or is there a SS or C move in the offing?

Dave Cameron: There aren’t any shortstops or catchers on the market, really.

Comment From Joe
If Lester gets traded for Seager, do think there is any possibility that he’s then flipped to Miami in the winter for Stanton?

Dave Cameron: If Seager could get Stanton, Stanton would be a Dodger.

Comment From FU Jobu
Where do you think Scherzer ends up? Any chance he gets moved now?

Dave Cameron: I could see him in Baltimore, maybe.

Comment From Zachary, Portland. OR
When you vote for MVP and Cy Young, will you base your decision primarily on WAR?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Comment From Tomas
7 games out of first, I don’t know how Tampa can say to Tavares, Miller and the competitive balance pick if that is on the table.

Dave Cameron: Well, if you think Taveras is overrated as I do, and you’ve watched Miller pitch like a broken pitcher for the last year, the deal maybe isn’t quite as enticing as the name value makes it sound.

Comment From Nats Fan
With the recent news leaked about Ryan Zimmerman, how much does this impact Mike Rizzo’s trade position if people know he’s now dealing from a position of weakness.

Dave Cameron: It doesn’t really matter at all. Leverage is incredibly overrated in negotiations.

Comment From Nick
Hi Dave. With Masterson’s value currently so low (poor year, on the DL), what caliber return could the Indians even expect to get? Do you think it would be worth it for the Tribe? Thanks.

Dave Cameron: I’d probably hang onto him and make him a QO instead. He’s worth a $15 million bet on a one year bounce back, I think.

Comment From A. Lane
How important is debut age for an individual prospect?

Dave Cameron: It’s important if the player has earned the debut. If a team just decides to rush a guy, it matters less.

Comment From Hank G.
I compared Rob Neyer’s chat last Wednesday with yours, quantity only. Rob answered 16 questions in an hour. You answered 83 questions in the first hour and then continued for another 15 minutes. Way to go, Dave!

Dave Cameron: Keep in mind that Rob’s site is still new, and FanGraphs has been around for a while. It’s very likely that I simply get more questions than Rob does.

Comment From ashtray
We keep hearing about how Choo’s ankle has never healed properly. So why, in this lost season, have they not yet put him on the DL?

Dave Cameron: The Rangers can’t just say “Choo isn’t as good as we thought he was”, so they have to say something like this.

Comment From Allejandro
Do you see the Dodgers making a move to find a setup reliever? The Beard has been graying before our eyes, and while another SP would be nice, the bullpen seems to be their real need.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they need relievers more than another starter.

Comment From Marcus A.
I know they get you, at best, a lottery ticket, but what is the point in bad teams keeping relievers with any value?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know.

Comment From Garold
After watching Aaron Sanchez for a few innings, I can’t help but think that with a modest improvement in command he could be an AJ Burnett kind of guy. I know you’re not high on him but what say you to that?

Dave Cameron: Keep in mind that the stuff you’re seeing in one or two inning relief outings won’t be the stuff he’s throwing in six or seven inning starts.

Comment From Guest
do we end up with Pederson for Lester?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it.

Comment From dogbone
In the playoffs, 6th inning, who would be more effective? Your #4,#5 starters or your 3rd,4th best relievers? In general are they better pitchers?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what type of starter it is. If it’s a guy with big platoon splits, he might translate really well to a bullpen role. If he’s just a pitch-to-contact strike thrower, probably less so.

Comment From Billy Beane
What’s it gonna cost me to get Ben Zobrist?

Dave Cameron: More than you have.

Comment From Tim
Regarding your Peralta/UZR post from last week: Andrew McCutchen looks like a great defender in CF, but rates negatively this season. Any thoughts?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think McCutchen actually does look like a great defender in CF. Most of the people I talk to think he’s average or a little above.

Comment From Pat
What are you planning for celebrations of your 4th and 5th annual clean bills of health?

Dave Cameron: Probably nothing too special next year, but we’ll definitely have a big party for the fifth year remission mark. That’s the point at which they tell me that I’m basically cured and the odds of recurrence are low enough that I don’t really need to worry about it, so that’s the time to have a big party.

Dave Cameron: And I guess I should mention for those who don’t follow me on Twitter: I got my three year remission check-up last Friday.

Comment From Julian
Is there a reason elite relievers are almost always strictly one inning? It seems like if elite starters in the game can go 200+ innings a year, elite relievers should be able to do 100+. Maybe current relievers don’t have the stamina but would it be beneficial for an organization to start having their future closers pitch more innings in the minors to get some more value out of them?

Dave Cameron: You can’t compare starters workload with relievers workload. Relievers pitch multiple days in a row at max effort. It’s not the same thing.

Comment From dogbone
Is there any merit to strong “second half starters” like laroche or is it just hogwash?

Dave Cameron: Hogwash.

Comment From semperty
Do you think Price pitching today takes him off the market, or dampens his value in any way?

Dave Cameron: No. It just means that there’s nothing close.

Comment From person hscer
Is InstaGraphs a plot to demonstrate that as much as you already publish, you’ve actually been writing twice as much?

Dave Cameron: Most of us work on several ideas at a time, and a bunch of them ending up not working for longer posts. The hope is that we can publish them as shorter things and still get value out of the work we’re doing, even if the idea wasn’t worth 1,000 words.

Comment From baltic fox
A lot of comments, pro and con, about Jeff Sullivan’s piece today (about why a Lester “rental” for two months in exchange for a Josh Bell and a lesser prospect makes sense). IMHO, Sullivan is correct. What are your thoughts on such a possible trade?

Dave Cameron: The Pirates should go for it.

Comment From Guest
Can we talk about how ridiculous it is that Tanner Roark turned into a 3-win pitcher after being HALF of the return for half a season of Christian Guzman??

Dave Cameron: Pitching. It’s weird.

Comment From Doctor Doom
Dave…I’m a Cleveland fan, please take pity on me and answer my question!! What kind of return do you see Cleveland getting for Asdrubal Cabrera and Masterson?

Dave Cameron: Minimal.

Comment From Julian
Do you see a future crop of statistics that use batted ball data to come up with the probability of an outcome as opposed to an absolute outcome? It doesn’t seem like a weak grounder that beats the shift and a clean single should be treated the same.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, if the StatCast data becomes public, I think we’ll have a whole new system of evaluating things in a few years. That’s still an if, though.

Comment From max
The White Sox had the three highest players on your trade value list of any team. So how long until they are not mediocore?

Dave Cameron: I’d say two years.

Comment From Taylor
Do you think the Nationals make a move bigger than a bullpen piece today? Not much they can really do.

Dave Cameron: They could use an infielder.

Comment From Kyle
Best RH bat available that won’t cost the farm?

Dave Cameron: Probably Josh Willingham, if we’re just talking offense.

Comment From baltic fox
Since you believe that the Dodgers are the favorites to land Lester, will it be Seager or Pederson that is the major prospect piece being relinquished?

Dave Cameron: I think they’re more likely to trade Pederson, but I don’t think they’d put him in a Lester deal.

Comment From Mark
Was I wrong to think there would be WAY more movement at the deadline based on how decimated some teams were by injuries earlier in the year? Could it still get pretty active?

Dave Cameron: There are only ~12 teams that consider themselves sellers, and most of them are sellers because they lack talent. There just isn’t much out there.

Comment From JV
Is Stephen Piscotty enough to get Jon Lester? For a rental i think it is and I don’t know why the Cardinals wouldn’t do this

Dave Cameron: Piscotty isn’t enough by himself, no. Piscotty + something, maybe.

Comment From Catoblepas
You’re not gaining some confidence in JBJ’s ability to hit? 97 wRC+ over the last 30 days, and insane defense.

Dave Cameron: Last 30 day numbers have no predictive value.

Comment From JV
Can Kershaw win the Cy Young if he doesn’t get to 200 innings?

Dave Cameron: Yeah.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Care to throw a dash of cold water on dreams of Taijuan Walker becoming no. 2 or ace?

Dave Cameron: Anything is possible, but that’s a longshot at best.

Comment From CC
Is Jimmy Nelson too much for Milwaukee to give up for Lester?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Josh
Josh Bell, Oscar Taveras, Aaron Sanchez. Who ISN’T a highly rated prospected that’s overrated?

Dave Cameron: Addison Russell.

Comment From Doctor Doom
Under the radar deadline deal that SHOULD happen but probably won’t?

Dave Cameron: Gerardo Parra to the Mariners.

Comment From CBIRD
Is there a chance Kevin Towers isn’t fired after the season?

Dave Cameron: Chance? Sure. But it seems far more likely than not.

Comment From Andrew
Could the Phillies do Hamels and Howard to someone like the Dodgers for nothing? Hamels if a FA would probably be looking at a 6/150 deal so there’s arguably some surplus value at 4/85 with the incremental value of a playoff race season.

Dave Cameron: It’s 4/96, not 4/85, and he might get 6/150, but he wouldn’t get 4/150.

Dave Cameron: You can’t use the total dollar value of a longer deal as a substitute for his value over the shorter term.

Comment From Rube
any suggestions for breaking trade news? I normally use mlbtr.

Dave Cameron: Twitter. Everything breaks on Twitter.

Comment From Josh
Can you expand on your “Josh Bell isn’t my kind of prospect” remark? What do you value that he doesn’t have? Just wondering…

Dave Cameron: I think prospect analysts regularly overrate bat-only players, especially ones who aren’t studs at the plate. A 1B who might or might not hit isn’t that great of a prospect.

Comment From mmarsden
What would your decision be primarily based on for MVP and Cy Young?

Dave Cameron: Which player I thought performed the best that season.

Comment From Skore
Isn’t boston also losing the ability to extend Lester if they trade him now? Should that factor into the kind of return they are looking for?

Dave Cameron: He said it wouldn’t affect his decision.

Comment From Ned
Any truth to the reports that Jack Z is difficult for other GMs to deal with?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Fuselage Inspector
Even though you won’t “base your decision [for MVP/Cy votes] on WAR,” I expect that the kinds of things you will look for in MVPs and Cy Youngs will be in large part incorporated into WAR… right?

Dave Cameron: Correct. The things I value and the things WAR value are very similar, so the results will be similar, but I’m not going to just look at WAR and copy and paste the list.

Comment From TKDC
Ervin Santana get’s a QO and rejects it, right?

Dave Cameron: That would be my guess, yes.

Comment From Joe
I realize just Seager can’t get Stanton. The point was if the Sox get Seager they could then package him with other guys of the Marlins interest. Maybe the Dodgers don’t have anything else to go along with Seager that the Marlins would want. Sorry I wasn’t clear.

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers have three of the top 20 prospects in baseball. The Red Sox do not.

Comment From Guest
why do you favor Polanco over Taveras?

Dave Cameron: Better all around game, doesn’t have the injury history.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Better Twitter feed to follow for breaking trade news today: @Ken_Rosenthal or @mlbtraderumors?

Dave Cameron: Why pick one? Follow both.

Comment From atoms
Is James Jones actually this terrible, or is he just slumping?

Dave Cameron: He’s terrible.

Comment From Please
Can you bring back prospect chats please???

Dave Cameron: Stay tuned.

Comment From Reginald Denton III
I tend to believe in the idea that the HR derby can screw up some guys’ swings, and I think we’re seeing that a little with Stanton, but moreso with guys like Dozier and Frazier, who have been ice cold since the ASB. Your thoughts?

Dave Cameron: There’s zero evidence this is true.

Comment From STiVo
Can you name a prospect that you think is underrated? (I realize that there could be many more overrated prospects than underrated, because they may be overrated as a class.)

Dave Cameron: Pick a good command starter with a plus change-up and average velocity. Those guys never get much love in prospect circles, and regularly turn into good big league starters.

Comment From Guest
Felix or Sale for AL Cy?

Dave Cameron: Felix, and it’s not close. Sale would have a shot if he hadn’t gone to the DL, but he did.

Comment From Tim
Even given your lukewarm feelings on Taveras, the Red Sox should be thrilled to get him for two months of Lester?

Dave Cameron: Correct.

Comment From Yo
the Yankees have a -29 actual run differential and a -26 differential according to BaseRuns, what explains their +5 win overperformance of both Pythag W-L and BaseRuns?

Dave Cameron: Timing. They’ve scored their runs at the right times.

Comment From Bob Loblaw
Is there a question you’re dying to get asked?

Dave Cameron: “How much would you like me to fill in this check for?”

Comment From Paul
What do you think of Tommy La Stella? He seems to be doing exactly what most projected he’d do (no power or speed, walks as much as he strikes out, doesn’t kill you at second, and hits many, many singles). +3 WAR player perhaps?

Dave Cameron: He’s Omar Infante.

Comment From JCA,CA
is kershaw the best pitcher you’ve seen

Dave Cameron: No, and he’s not even in the mix, really. I was lucky enough to get to watch in-their-prime Pedro, Maddux, Johnson, and Clemens. Tough group to crack into.

Comment From Mark
I’d argue against your last 30 days thing but only with this specific Bradley case. He changed his stance and looks completely different at the plate than he used to. Ever since then he’s hit well and really cut his K rate down. I think there’s something to it when mechanical changes happen etc

Dave Cameron: Go read Ben Lindbergh’s article on Grantland from yesterday. You’re exhibiting post hoc fallacy.

Comment From Guest
Will there be a trade deadline chat tomorrow?

Dave Cameron: There will be.

Comment From Mike
Is there any way to see who’s going to be chatting and when on FG?

Dave Cameron: Mon: Szymborski

Dave Cameron: Tue: Sullivan

Dave Cameron: Wed: Cameron and Weinberg

Dave Cameron: Thu: Sarris

Dave Cameron: Friday: Minnix

Comment From Chris
Dave, I’m currently reading Tom Tango’s The Book for the first time and it’s incredibly fascinating. What other books would you recommend for someone trying to learn sabermetrics?

Dave Cameron: When you finish it, read it again. It’s the one to read and really get down pat.

Comment From Mo
if you’re looking for a catch-all offensive stat to use in rating team offense, would you go with wOBA or wRC+?

Dave Cameron: We actually have a catch-all stat called “Offense”, abbreviated OFF, that is batting and baserunning. Use that.

Comment From Mike
Isn’t Rosenthal considered somewhat of a joke in the industry?

Dave Cameron: Not at all.

Comment From Guest
Felix or Kershaw?

Dave Cameron: Felix is amazing, but Kershaw is the best in the game right now.

Comment From Dan
Why hasn’t there been a more recent THE BOOK? Or someone besides Tango writing a version with more recent data?

Dave Cameron: Because you don’t need recent data to confirm the same points.

Comment From Tony
Who would be your number 1 prospect in baseball right now?

Dave Cameron: Kris Bryant.

Comment From Coach
Just looked at “Off”. Noticed that in team WRc+, 20 teams are below 100. If 100 is average, how does this happen?

Dave Cameron: If I have a million dollars, and you and your nine friends each have 1 dollar, the average of our total wealth is still over $100,000 each, even though nine of you aren’t anywhere close to that.

Dave Cameron: Okay, it’s almost 1:30, so I’m going to get out of here, but I’ll be back tomorrow afternoon for our trade deadline chat.

Dave Cameron: Have a fun next 26 hours, everyone.