FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 1/17/17

3:12

Paul Swydan:

Did you really think Jose Bautista would need to sign a one-year contract?

Yeah he’s super old (25.3% | 48 votes)

I hadn’t really thought about it (18.5% | 35 votes)

No he’s a star this whole thing is weird (28.5% | 54 votes)

Technically the options could make it longer (27.5% | 52 votes)

Total Votes: 189

3:16

Paul Swydan:

Which player w < 25% on BBHoF Tracker most deserves to be elected to the HoF?

Jeff Kent (4.9% | 11 votes)

Fred McGriff (8.5% | 19 votes)

Jorge Posada (3.6% | 8 votes)

Manny Ramirez (32.5% | 72 votes)

Gary Sheffield (8.1% | 18 votes)

Sammy Sosa (4.5% | 10 votes)

Billy Wagner (4.0% | 9 votes)

Larry Walker (33.4% | 74 votes)

Total Votes: 221

3:28

Paul Swydan:

Who was your favorite Avenger from “The Avengers” movie? (2012)

Iron Man (22.7% | 46 votes)

Captain America (6.9% | 14 votes)

The Hulk (16.8% | 34 votes)

Thor (6.4% | 13 votes)

Black Widow (8.4% | 17 votes)

Hawkeye (3.9% | 8 votes)

I didn’t see that movie (29.7% | 60 votes)

How can I choose? (4.9% | 10 votes)

Total Votes: 202

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Guest: If The Avengers were a baseball team, who would play where, what would their WAR be?

9:01	Paul Swydan: Oh my gosh, I’ve thought about writing this up before.

9:02	Paul Swydan: My son has all of them as Legos, so I drew it up once.

9:02	Paul Swydan: I think I remember having Hulk, Iron Man and Thor in the outfield. How would you get a ball past them?

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: On Bautista, I figured at least one of the DH/1B types would get hosed with so many on the market this year. It seems like it could 4-5 who sign team friendly deals.

9:03	Paul Swydan: Hi Jeff!

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi.

9:03	Vogey Train: What’s Vogelbach’s ceiling look like? Does his .400 OBP stick in the majors? 40 HR potential?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Well, hopefully it doesn’t have that popcorn stuff on the ceiling. That stuff is so 1970s.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not high on him, so no

9:04	Paul Swydan: Also, no, I don’t think either of those numbers are his ceiling.

9:05	Guest: If the ASG didn’t determine the HFA this year, would the Cubs have still won?

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Who knows but my gut says yes.

9:05	Paul Swydan: I think so, yeah. The Indians still wouldn’t have had a deep bullpen.

9:06	AKA22: If you were the Reds GM, what would you do to get Phillips to accept a trade? Is there anything possible that makes both sides happy?

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Phillips is just being a butt at this point. I don’t think he will accept a trade even if it was to play SS on a WS caliber team.

9:08	Paul Swydan: That’s a good question. I doubt there is much they could do. Like Jeff said.

9:08	bill: is xander bogaerts a top 5 shortstop in baseball?

9:09	Paul Swydan: In terms of real life, he’s probably in the 6-10 range unless/until he steps up his defense.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I think is around #5, probably a top 3 to 7 shortstop.

9:09	Paul Swydan: In terms of fantasy, absolutely.

9:09	Paul Swydan: As long as it’s a 5×5 league.

9:09	Nick Saban: HELP: Verlander in the 7th, Taillon in the 17th, or forgo Contreras in the 17th and keep both. Other keepers are Giancarlo, Marte and Carpenter at nice #s. Thank you!

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Verlander and Contreras

9:10	Paul Swydan: Agreed

9:10

Twoseaming Action: Dynasty valuations to compare players with different projections, age, growth, years of control and costs etc… I project out their production 5 years and use NPV/DCF. Balanced 35% disc rate, Win now 50% disc rate, Full rebuild 20%. I refer to my values sometimes when talking trade with people. Most of them see a foreign language when I try to explain. Is there anybody with me?

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Huh?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I think that whether people are with you or not, you’re probably better off not discussing the ins and outs of your system when talking trade.

9:12	Biscuit: What kind of impact do you expect Jorge Alfaro to make for the Phils this year? Sounds like the defense is ready but that bat isn’t, and they don’t have a reason to rush him do they?

9:13	Paul Swydan: No, they don’t. I wouldn’t expect him to be up before the Super 2 deadline in June.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: No need to rush him just yet. Take the extra control and cost savings

9:13	Paul Swydan: Man, we have a ton of questions tonight.

9:13	einstein2u: can only keep one: benitendi or dahl?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Benintendi

9:13	Paul Swydan: And I say that as a big Dahl fan.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:14	Rick Hahn: Will I bring up Moncada, Giolito and Lopez by mid-year?

9:14	Paul Swydan: If by mid-year you mean July, then maybe. But they also have no reason to rush any of the three, and they’re going to use the 2B re-conversion as an excuse to give Moncada more MiLB seasoning.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe not Lopez and depends how Giolito pitching.

9:14	Stevil: Who’s most likely to win an arm-wrestling contest among fangraphs’ authors? Who would likely the first one out?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Jeff would probably own us all pretty hard.

9:15	Paul Swydan: I’d have to think Cistulli would be out before we even started.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Brad Johnson and Bradon Warne would give me a fight

9:15	Paul Swydan: True, true. Brandon Warne too.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Carson is definitely an early out

9:16	Jim Lonborg: Do you think knowing public voting is coming might change how people vote this year? E.g., someone might be thinking, lets hurry up and get Bonds in so I don’t have to take a public position next year?

9:16	Paul Swydan: It could have been a factor, but I think the bigger factor was Selig’s election.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Not really. I think Selig getting in helped Bonds the most but the reason is just stupid.

9:17	anonymous: January: Worst month for baseball, worst month for movies, worst weather. Justify January’s existence in 140 characters or less

9:18	Paul Swydan: February is generally colder in my neck of the woods, so at least January has that going for it?

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: I can’t.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Also, this January gave us “Hidden Figures,” so that’s pretty sweet.

9:18	Davey Crocker: Does Bud Norris get a MLB deal?

9:19	Paul Swydan: I can’t see why he would.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I bet a MiLB deal with an invite.

9:19	Paul Swydan: He’s now 2 years into being a swingman, and he wasn’t very good in either of those seasons.

9:19

will: What do you think of a team, say the Rockies, decided one off-season to load up on middle relievers despite having a whole bullpen set in place. While everyone is confused as to what they are doing, they unload their starters for more relievers and now the only types of pitchers they have on their 25 man roster are relievers. Say all of their pitchers are now players with absurdly high K%-BB% numbers and they implement some sort of 7 to 8 man rotation, but in each game they would only have their “starters” throw 3 innings or so. Do you think this can give them a competitive advantage? Or would fatigue wear all of the pitchers down and it’d be the biggest dumpster fire of a rotation in MLB history? Do you think there could be an off-season training plan to increase the endurance of the pitchers?

9:20	Paul Swydan: I mean, the Rockies already tried this, and their starting pitchers essentially mutinied. The players will only agree to do so much.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Fatigue could be a huge issue also. I think this would work if a team had a couple good starters who could go twice through the lineup

9:21	Moe Jaddon: Eno seems to put an awful lot of emphasis on Jameson Taillon’s poor 3rd pitch/changeup. But his #’s look terrific at every level. What’s your take sir?

9:22	Paul Swydan: My take is that if all he has to do to become an elite pitcher is fix one pitch, then I’m happy to ride with him.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: The third pitch is needed to be a top 20 pitcher. No starter near the top has 2 pitches. Tyson Ross is probably the best right now.

9:24	A Tribe Called Kipnis: Given the dire state of AL catchers, do you like McCann in Houston? In AL Only auction with hyper-inflation, where should the bidding stop?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I like McCann in Houston, yes. $20 or so? Hard for me to gauge without knowing your $ limits.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: McCann should do fine in Houston. I am not sure of his costs, but catcher inflation should be insane in AL-only

9:25	Little Nicky Punto : Time for the monthly Twins Talk. Does Robbie Grossman really get 450+ PA for the Twins? Is he worth anything (in OBP leagues)? Who gets the most PA at DH? Thanks, and see you again next month.

9:26	Paul Swydan: It seems like Eddie Rosario could cut into that a little bit, but beyond that they’d have to play someone else out of position or make a trade. I thought the second player in the Dozier deal might end up being an OF.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I think they will bring in another outfielder. I thought Blanco would sign there but that ship just sailed

9:27	Nelson: Would you take Correa or Turner going forward

9:27	Paul Swydan: I think probably Correa, but that’s a tough one.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Correa.

9:29	Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Paul. PAUL. PAAAAUUULLLLL!!!! Never mind. Jeff, any reason why you don’t have a better sign off on these chats. Other Jeff always tells us to have great days. You just say bye like we were a one night chat stand.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Hey, you’re not Jeff’s supervisor!

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: I usually have no idea when Paul is going to end the chat until a timer shows up saying the chat will end. I quickly type something.

9:30	Paul Swydan: I like to keep Jeff in suspense haha.

9:30	GSon: Add Kenny Lofton to your “didn’t get enough love to stay on the ballot” even though he was clearly deserving list

9:31	Paul Swydan: You’re right GSon, but the poll was limited to people on the ballot this year.

9:31	Tommy Tutone: What do you think about M Fulmer? In a dynasty league would you trade Rosario for him?

9:31	Paul Swydan: If we’re talking about the Mets shortstop Rosario, yeah, probably. I don’t trust the Mets to do anything right.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not a huge Fulmer fan but I would take the productive MLB player over the prospect who may be productive in the majors.

9:32	Devil Ray J. Johnson: What are the chances everyone in Boston underperforms except Betts and Sale?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Unfortunately, DRJJ, this is such a specific question that the odds of it happening are very, very low. I’ll say that it won’t happen.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: 0

9:33	Gavin: Do the Dodgers really need that big of a 2b upgrade? Depth Charts has them at #16 there.

9:34	Paul Swydan: “Other teams suck more” is not a good reason to sit on your hands when you have the chance to make your team better.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: They could upgrade and every bit helps.

9:34	Paul Swydan: And Kike Hernandez is not someone who I would want locked into a specific position. I like him better as a utility guy.

9:34

$11 Worth of Taco Bell: Can you explain the Royals? They made some decent individual deals, but they seem puzzling in larger context since they seem to want to compete again in 2017 yet really did not make the team better and refused to spend any money on reasonably priced free agents who could have made team better.

9:35	Paul Swydan: First, that name wins the night.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Nice name

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Inflation says it’s higher than $11

9:35	Paul Swydan: Second, I think it’s likely that they didn’t want a lot of free agents because there simply haven’t been a lot of them worth paying for.

9:36	Paul Swydan: I mean, I would have loved to see them DFA Hosmer and pick up Encarnacion, but the odds on that were really low.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: The moves are riding the line by keeping the team competitive one more year. They have no money to spend and Infante is still getting paid.

9:36	There All Is Athletics: I’m tired of the arguments — Toy Story 2 is the weakest Toy Story by far.

9:37	Paul Swydan: It might be the weakest, but definitely not by far. If you took away the other two movies, and Toy Story 2 stood alone, it would still be an absolute classic.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: You are kind of splitting hairs. They’re all decent

9:38	There All Is Athletics: We have, what, two more days of Hall of Fame nonsense until July, right? Tomorrow’s announcements and then one 24-hour news cycle alternating outrage and congratulations. This year seem particularly bad, right?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I think it’ll be more like a week, at least. There’s a lot to unpack in this vote. Also, if you think this year is bad, wait ’til next year when all the ballots are public. It’s going to ruin your whole January (EVIL LAUGH).

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s always this bad. I’ve gotten better at ignoring it.

9:39	A Tribe Called Kipnis: Is Yan Gomes over?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Nope.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:39	A Tribe Called Kipnis: What are the odds Tyler Naquin ends up back in the minors and Cleveland has to scramble for a real CF mid-season?

9:39	Paul Swydan: 20% ?

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: That sounds about right. I think Naquin’s defense is fine, it will be if he can keep hitting.

9:40	Paul Swydan: That’s not the big worry, I don’t think. The big worry is Naquin turns back into a pumpkin AND Brantley is cooked at the same time. If that happens, Cleveland will probably have to do something.

9:40	Weezy: Think all these front offices getting smarter will change how the players union will negotiate pre-arb/arbitration salaries? The old adage of “getting paid for what you have already done” seems to be breaking

9:40	Paul Swydan: I think this has already happened.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: True and they are really taking defense more and more into account

9:41	old spartan: New member…be kind. Just bought into a Forever 12 team keeper…can keep 3 of these ….Posey (2), Freeman (5), Stanton (8), Desmond (9) & Polanco (14). Already, keeping Arenado (16) & Trea (16). Punting on pitching till draft with Archer (1) & Tanaka (3).

9:42	Paul Swydan: Posey, Freeman and Polanco

9:42	Paul Swydan: Definitely not Desmond

9:42	Paul Swydan: Could be persuaded on Stanton, but I am always wary of his injuries.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Stanton, Desmond and Freeman.

9:42	Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!

9:43	Stevil: Good evening, Paul. Which team in each league do you feel should be in panic-mode now?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Washington feels that way with their bullpen.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Tigers in the AL

9:44	Paul Swydan: Huh. It’s an odd time of year for teams to be panicking, but if I were the Nationals and Giants, I’d be real concerned that I didn’t do anywhere near enough to hang with the Dodgers and Cubs, especially with their windows closing.

9:46	Q-Ball: Well, with contracts that Saunders, Bautista are receiving, and Chris Carter NOT receiving, the agent for Mark Trumbo has to be nervous, right?

9:47	Paul Swydan: I think Trumbo’s agent is probably sleeping a little bit better now that Bautista went back home to Toronto.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: And Napoli’s

9:48	Q-Ball: Has a major league team ever gone an entire year without making a single trade? Rockies are 11 days away from that feat.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Oh snap, now THAT’S a fun piece. I have no idea of the answer.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know

9:48	Paul Swydan: But I’d bet you’re on to something there, Q-Ball.

9:48	Trainman: Hey Paul, i play in an Al only auction and I recently traded Bundy ($2) and sale ($35) for Bradley Jr and Kepler ($10 each) . My other rotation consists of darvish ($6), Pineda ($9), McCullers ($10), cotton, dan Norris ($2). Did I sell sale too short?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I’d have liked to see more of a return for Sale, for sure, but I don’t think you got killed. And your rotation is still pretty good.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so. With pitching so thin in the AL owners need to target the few aces

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I am also not sold on JBJ and Kepler

9:50	mark: dynasty league – should i hold on to austin meadows and benintendi or sell high?

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Keep Beni, sell Meadows

9:51	Paul Swydan: Definitely hold on to Benintendi. As for Meadows, it depends on if you’re all in this season or not. I’m bullish on Meadows, but I’d always trade a prospect if I’m trying to win.

9:51	Trainman: What are your thoughts on dan vogelbach this year? Have him at $2 in my AL only. Over/under .775 OPS

9:51	Paul Swydan: You people are obsessed with Dan Vogelbach.

9:52	Paul Swydan: I’ll take the under.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Same here. Scouts seem down on him.

9:52	Anonymous: I have “mutual options” with Sofia Vergara, but she never seems to pick them up 🙁

9:52	Paul Swydan: Now that’s funny.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: You too?

9:53	Joe: I feel the need to clarify that I don’t particularly like The Hulk, but I really love Mark Ruffalo.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Fair enough. Ruffalo as The Hulk is so good.

9:53	Gern Cranium: Is Jeff Hoffman a fantasy option in the next couple years or is the Coors effect too much?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Ubaldo at his best, Jon Gray right now, these guys are rosterable. But they’re the exceptions. Can Hoffman prove to be another exception? Maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: We’ll see. It is a fine line for any pitcher to throw in Coors. I only really trust the top 15 to throw there.

9:54	westcoastpete: How do projection systems predict playing time and are they good at it?

9:55	Paul Swydan: I don’t know the answer to either of these questions, but Jeff might.

9:55	Paul Swydan: I WOULD like to point out though that if you are dissatisfied with how the projection systems project playing time or how we do it on the depth charts, that you can use the Steamer600 projections:

9:55	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Marcels looks at previous seasons. We use the depth charts to help with it. Using ours (or the fans in the past) where good methods

9:56	Paul Swydan: They project all hitters to 600 PA, all SP to 200 IP and all RP to 65 IP.

9:57	Andrew Friedman: Assuming the Dozier talks fall through, who do you think the Dodgers get to play 2nd base? Out of Kinsler, Forsythe, Odor/Profar, Cesar Hernandez, Chase Utley, etc.

9:57	Paul Swydan: Probably Utley or Forsythe.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Utley but Profar for pitching makes a ton of sense

9:58	anonymous: Hulk’s range is decent, but that arm would play up better at catcher

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Or pitcher

9:58	Paul Swydan: Yeah but Hulk would rob every home run with his jumping ability. Plus I wouldn’t want him so close to the other players. Keep him in the outfield where he can’t punch anybody.

9:59	Ryan: Regarding Avengers– check out Homer Bailey as Loki; the resemblance is uncanny