Hideki Matsui: More Chameleon than Godzilla
Ken Davidoff penned a piece today looking at potential landing spots for Hideki Matsui. He’s an interesting case given the depressed market for designated hitters last off-season, so let’s look at his potential value.
Matsui’s wOBA is .379 this year, which ranks as his third best offensive season since arriving Stateside.. His BABIP is only .260 – last three years: .320/.392/.312 – and his walk rate is relatively static. His home run per fly ball rate, however, is a career high 18%. This is only challenged by his 2004 rate of 16%, and over the last three seasons his high is 12.8%. That inflation explains his .262 ISO, another career high. He’s 35-years-old and it’s not often you see players flip the power switch this late in their careers which should raise some caution flags on his ability to repeat such an outburst.
Matsui hasn’t played an inning of outfield this season. He also assumed the DH role most of the time for the Yankees last season and his last real exposure to the grass was in 2007 when he posted a -7.6 UZR. Matsui is probably a -10 < x < -15 defender in a corner outfield spot over a full season which all but limits him to DH work.
Combining his limited defensive ability with a season that smells of fluke doesn’t make for an attractive package. Further, Matsui has dealt with some injury issues over the past few years. Knee swelling and eventually draining has been a reappearing issue since Matsui underwent left knee surgery in late 2008.
Matsui offers it all: durability concerns, fielding issues, and a luck inflated offensive season? As last off-season showed us, teams don’t seem overly willing to pay the big bucks for players with his skill set anymore. He figures to average around 2 WAR per season over the last three years when 2009 comes to a wrap, and while that’s valuable, it’s hard to argue that it’s Matsui’s true talent level or expected contribution level heading forward.
A few teams should be interested in Matsui, but there’s no reason he should earn anything close to his annual rates with the Yankees.
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Small typo in his BABIP… you said .392 instead of .292
Not sure I understand this. His BABIP is .260, which actually points to bad luck. I understand the point about HR/FB, and perhaps some correction is due. But he is a pretty useful hitter, all things considered, usually good for a .850 OPS. There could be some team giving him a job at DH (Tigers?).
The point about his salary stands, it should be far lower than the 13 million figure.
Yeah, not sure I am getting why HR/FB should trump BABIP. Even if you take away the HRs that should not be there based on career average it is still pretty easy to see with a career avg babip he would have an obp north of .380.
“Matsui offers it all: durability concerns, fielding issues, and a luck inflated offensive season?”
Sounds like Bradley, but Milton can add “headcase” to his line. Still Hendry was dumb enough to give him 3/30. Will JP do the same for Mortal-Zilla?
Except Bradely’s always been a good fielder, and his season was significantly better than Matsui’s this year.
Bradley might be considered a good fielder, but he wasnt able to play the field 3 days in a row without hurting himself (or feeling compelled to complain about being hurt), negating defensive value.
Also, his season was only arguably better. Sure, his straigh slash line might look amazing, but it was because he just had an unbelievable (as in, “yeah right that will happen again”) line in Texas, like so many before him
Sure,
Bradley .321/.436/.563/.999, 163 OPS+
to
Matsui .271/.361/.530/.891. 130 OPS+
Milton looks better.
but those home/road splits
MB Home .358/.466/.679/1.145
MB Away ..290/.410/.462/.872
and all of a sudden you realize Matsui was much better on neutral ground. Matsui on the other hand has a 1.004 OPS on the road to .798 at home – his overall numbers are destroyed by new Yankee stadium, as apposed to Bradleys being completely created by the Ballpark.
Home road splits are a bad way of valuing hitters. They eliminate half a season of data from each player, which is never a good thing. It could be that Matsui simply had his hot streaks on the road, and Bradeley on home. That wouldn’t be a park affect, it would just be luck.
Park adjusting things is always the right way to go. From Statcorner, Bradley’s park adjusted wOBA was .429 last year vs. a .389 mark for Matsui this year.
Fluke or New Yankee Stadium?
matsui has all of one “just enough” HRs in Yankee stadium
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_3789&type=hitter
.230 BABIP, 11 HR, 215 PA at home
.293 BABIP, 12 HR, 185 PA on the road
And hey guys, cmon I’m a career .307 BABIP hitter! You can point to my knee injury and say i’m slower… but c’mon! I’m not THAT much slower am I? Maybe…
What about my line drive rate on batted balls? Almost 20%, the second highest LD% of my entire career! I must be seeing the ball really well, could that be a reason for my increased HR/FB? More so, I’m hitting nearly 20% line drives yet I’ve only got a BABIP of .260? I should at least be hitting at the same BABIP rates as fellow slow, yet professional, batters like Billy Butler (.328, 18.2% LD), and Jack Cust (.319, 20.7% LD, 16.4% HR/FB).
Love the site guys, but let’s be careful with those “fluke” accusations. As my people would say… “California Roll’
welcome to fangraphs, everything that isn’t easy to explain is “luck”!
a career 124 OPS+ hitter has a 130 OPS+?? INSANE!!
I really do enjoy a lot of what this site puts out there… just gotta defend myself ya know?
P.S R.J, Love the rays but it must suck to be in the toughest division in sports eh? Good thing the yanks are rich (my salary ~ a quarter of your payroll)!
I’m waiting to see Billy Beane snag him for peanuts, watch him put together a huge season, and then collect 2 picks when JP Ricciardi signs him to a 2 year, 18 million deal. O wait, I’m thinking of Frank Thomas.
Or Jason Giambi! D’oh! =D
Only an AL team that wants a DH (never to play the field) should even consider him. Solid hitter, as long as the knees hold up (therein lies the problem).
I see the Seattle Mariners being a possible or even probable destination. Safeco field is a good fit for lefties, they need a bat for their lineup and don’t really have a DH, and have some money to spend. On the other side, Seattle should be an attractive team for Hideki due to the proximity to Japan and the Japanese players on the roster.
I’m usually 100% on board with the analysis here, but this one’s kind of a dud for me. Matsui has an inflated HR/FB% playing in a hitter-friendly environment, and has a .260 BABIP. Normalizing both numbers he looks pretty much exactly the way I think most people view him: a pretty good hitter who’d be a nice 2-3 year sign at a modest salary (say, $7-8 million per) to play DH.
In addition to those warnings, he is hitting at new Yankee stadium, and in a good lineup.