Kearns and Duncan in Cleveland
There is something serendipitous about Austin Kearns being signed to a a minor-league deal by Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro. Both have long been admired for their potential, but both are widely perceived (at least in certain circles) as disappointments. Despite that perception (which is surely at least somewhat grounded in reality), both have had their moments — Cleveland’s 2007 ALCS run, Kearns’ 2002, 2006, and 2007 seasons. By signing Kearns and Shelley Duncan to virtually no-risk, minor-league contracts, is Shapiro showing he’s still capable of smart moves? Let’s see what Kearns and Duncan have to offer.
Austin Kearns is now 30 and and the apparent potential of the early 00s and the “rebound” of 2006-07 are a long way away. But the public emergence of superior defensive metrics shows that he was even more valuable in his good years than originally thought, and not totally worthless even in some of his bad years. Offensively, Kearns isn’t much. CHONE projects Kearns for a context-neutral .237/.338/.375, or 6 runs below average per 150 games. ZiPS is similar, projecting .237/.341/.377, which I translate to about -6/150. My own projection is right there: .247/.346/.376, -4/150.
That’s not good, but it’s also enough to justify a minor-league deal — even with CHONE’s average defensive projection for the corner outfield, that adds up to 0.7 WAR in only 452 PA. But UZR likes Kearns is much more than that, and Jeff Zimmerman projects Kearns’ RF UZR/150 for +10 in 2010. Putting it all together, per 150 games Kearns is probably around a 1.5 WAR player once we account for position. That’s excellent for a minor-league deal.
Shelley Duncan is an ex-Yankee International League superstar who is a pretty bad outfielder — CHONE’s TotalZone has him at -6 (there’s too little major league sample size to use UZR), and is probably more of a 1B/LF/DH type. One might dismiss his CHONE projection — .244/.329/.462, +12/150 — as overly optimistic given its reliance on MLEs, but ZiPS is also impressed with Duncan, projecting him for .252/.328/.460, about +8/150. Even if you don’t regard him as an above-average player as does CHONE, again, he’s a very valuable piece to have on a minor league deal.
Mark Shapiro’s team had a disastrous 2009 after a disappointing 2008. The team has revenue problems, as well. On the field, two spots in the outfield are set, with CF Grady Sizemore likely to be one of the better players in the league again after a inujry-plagued down year in 2009, and Shin-Soo Choo is a likely 3.5-4 WAR impact hitter in right field. But there are other holes that need to be filled and not much money with which to do so. Matt LaPorta is a good young hitter, but he might be needed to fill the hole in 1B (unless Andy Marte works out there). Left field was slated for the likes of Michael Brantley and Trevor Crowe — bench fodder at best. Perhaps they’d work out, but for next to nothing, players like Kearns and Duncan provide likely improvement as well much-needed right-handed bats (Sizemore, Choo, and Travis Hafner are all left-handed hitters) while adding practically nothing to the payroll. Moreover, Duncan can fill in at DH or 1B “just in case” Hafner gets hurt.
This isn’t to say that adding 30-year-old minor league outfielders like Kearns and Duncan makes Cleveland a contender (although it doesn’t take much in a weak AL Central), especially given the pitching situation by the lake. But smart, no-risk moves like this show that Mark Shapiro is paying attention and that he has something left in the tank.
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Since when is Peralta a LH hitter?
This could explain his numbers in 2009.
D’oh. That’s embarrassing… don’t know how I got that into my head. Fixing… Fixed.
moron = me
Not a fan of Brantley? I feel like he’d make an excellent CF with the type of skills he has.
I know he’d most likely fit as 4th OF in Cleveland as long as Grady is around… but if given the chance to have everyday at bats I don’t see why he couldn’t be a useful bat in any lineup.
Brantley is young, and I’ll defer to those more familiar with the him and Cleveland’s system, but from what I understand , there are questions about his defense in center at this point, and I’m don’t think his bat is ready at the moment for a corner spot.
Edit: Nevermind… I must of been looking at someone else when looking at OF numbers.
Brantley is nothing special.
Maybe you should go back and check his age again.
Certainly Brantley’s bat lacks some pop to be desired from a corner OF spot, but he has shown great on-base skills combined with some great instincts on the base paths. As a 22-year old, his numbers warrant a shot at the same corner OF spot that has seen the likes of Ben Francisco, Jason Michaels, Coco Crisp, Matt Lawton, and Marty Cordova since Manny left, er, departed.
Frankly, I expect more from a site like fangraphs, I’m not sure where to start even…
“Matt LaPorta is a good young hitter, but he might be needed to fill the hole in 1B (unless Andy Marte works out there”
- Ummm…might be needed at 1b? Are you suggesting he’s headed back to AAA?
“Left field was slated for the likes of Michael Brantley and Trevor Crowe — bench fodder at best.”
- So Crowe and Brantley are the same players to you?
“much-needed right-handed bats (Sizemore, Choo, Jhonny Peralta, and Travis Hafner are all left-handed hitters)”
- Peralta’s now a LHB?
I’m sorry I didn’t meet your lofty expectations, Tixlist,.com
LaPorta: I don’t suggest he’ll go back to AAA, but rather that I wasn’t clear from my reading whether he’d play 1B (which is what I originally though) or whether he’d play LF with Marte at 1B (which was also suggested to me).
Brantley and Crowe probably have different futures given their respective ages, but from the projections I’ve seen, both look like ~ 1 WAR players in 2010.
see above re: Peralta
Well, LaPorta had hip surgery this off season. He’s expected to be ready to go this spring, but you never know. I see the signing of Kearns and Duncan as organizational depth in case LaPorta can’t go. If any player needs a change of scenery more than Kearns does, name him. I especially like the Kearns signing-maybe they get something from him.
Hey Matt,
I was half joking when I said “expect more from fangraphs.” Sorry to come off as a d-bag, not the intent.
As for the post, I read it as “Left field was slated for the likes of Michael Brantley and Trevor Crowe — bench fodder at best.” Which means only 1B was available for Laporta, which you suggest he “might be needed.” All I’m saying is Laporta, assuming healthy, is getting 550AB’s next year, most likely at 1B. I also wouldn’t be so quick to call Brantley “bench fodder” unless your definition is completely different than mine. For example, is Austin Jackson, Det’s likely CF for 2010 also bench fodder in your mind? The players are very similar, so I think you may be selling Brantley short right now. His combo of plate discipline and speed is attractive. And before anyone suggests he doesn’t have the pop to play LF, what does that say about the Red Sox front office who just made the decision to put a player with similar pop in a corner?
Sorry for the slightly thin-skiined reponse, it’s all good.
Actually, I don’t think Jackson is ready to be a major-league starter at the moment… he might be in a year, and maybe I’m wrong, but like Brantley, he looks like a 1 WAR guy at this point. I don’t know tons about him other than a couple prospect reports and the projections, so I’m willing to cede to others, but if he’s got a future, why rush him in a rebuilding year, especially when you have cheap options like Kearns and Duncan?
LIke I said, originally I thought LaPorta was going to be the full-time 1B< but then I got the impression that I might be jumping the gun on that. Agree that he'll get 500+ PAs fashion.
As for corner positions and power…. well, when it comes down to it, for all outfield positoins, you want a guy whose offense + fielding outstrips the position adjustment, however that works. If Ellsbury is only average deffensively left (just hypothetically), but he's a +10 hitter (my projection, but again that's just an example), it doesn't really matter whether he gets it through power, or just getting on base… he's above average there.
CHONE has Brantley as a -9/150 hitter for 2010, and also has doubts aobut his OF defense (-6 in CF, or -4 position neutral OF) — I think CLE's better off letting him develop more.
Hmmm…. I see that CHONE’s update has Brantley as a -3 hitter now… that changes things a bit. Still seems like he could use some development, and if they seem him as a CF, that position’s taken for the moment.
Whether Brantley should be playing in the OF in 2010 is a different argument, and one that I wouldn’t necessarily disagree with you on. And for a team like CLE, who isn’t likely competing in 2010, it’s probably best to keep him in AAA to start the season. ZIPS has Brantley playing above avg defense with 282/348/360 and 32 SB’s, which isn’t awful for a 22 yo. Looks pretty similar to what Andrus put up last year, although better defense.
I’ve always found this line of criticism disingenuous.
The Kearns signing was probably recommended by Acta, as Kearns was always a favorite of his. Last year, Kearns rededicated himself and the Nats got one good month out of him. The talent was once there but as one commenter suggested earlier, the damage is already done from years of abuse and neglect.
Now if only Shapiro could make Kearns and Duncan into one player… he’d have quite the left fielder. Maybe they’ll try an offense early/defensive later platoon? (or vice versa, depending on how often they have leads or need to play catch-up)
@longgandhi: How good of Keans to re-dedicate himself.
That was my point. Even when he re-focused on his career, there wasn’t anything left in the tank.
Abuse and neglect. What is he, a puppy?
Neglect? He was injured ALL THE TIME. Abuse? Well, maybe that would explain the injuries.
If Kearns shortens his swing a bit like he did for a part of last season, he could do okay for the Indians.
Duncan’s just another in a long line of overhyped Yankees prospects. He’s a fringe MLB player at best.
Still, there is no such thing as a bad minor league signing. Worst case, he can give them passable production as an emergency call-up.
Kearns has been a disappointment. I had such high hopes for him earlier in his career…as did the Reds of course.