Porcello’s Inning Count
As the Tigers continue to move towards their probable playoff birth they have to start thinking about their playoff rotation. Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson form a strong top two. After that Jarrod Washburn has, not unexpectedly, seen his performance come back to earth and will have his next start skipped in hopes of alleviating some knee pain. Still you have to pencil him in to the rotation. In a four-man playoff rotation they have little choice but to go with Rick Porcello as the fourth pitcher. The alternatives, Nate Robertson and Armando Galarraga, just inspire too little confidence.
Porcello is having a circa-2007 Chien-Ming Wang type season. Very poor K/9, mediocre K/BB but lots of grounders. The end result is an ok performance, no doubt aided by Detroit’s excellent infield defense. The problem is that Porcello is just 20 and has already thrown ten more innings than last year, if he takes 4 or 5 more turns through the rotation in the regular season he would be up to at least 30 innings more than last year. The Verducci effect suggests that pitching 30 or more innings more than the year before drastically increases the chance of injury to a young pitcher. The Tigers would, of course, ease those guidelines for playoff innings, but it would be nice if they could limit Porcello’s regular season innings, as the Yankees are doing with Joba Chamberlain.
Unfortunately the Tigers’s rotation is not healthy, or deep, enough to do that in the thick of a still not totally settled AL Central race. Nate Robertson came off a AAA rehab stint to enter the rotation in place of Armando Galarraga who was out with elbow inflammation. Now Galarraga has to come straight back to the majors rather than make a scheduled start in AAA to take Washburn’s spot. So there is not much opportunity to skip Porcello’s starts at the moment.
Hopefully the Tigers can wrap up the division soon or get Robertson, Galarraga and Washburn simultaneously healthy, so they can limit Porcello’s innings down the stretch. If not they could, if they go on a deep playoff run, put a dangerous number of innings on Procello’s young arm.
Dave Allen's other baseball work can be found at Baseball Analysts.
The Verducci effect is a farce. The only reason an increased inning workload can add to the likeliness of injury is a result of flawed mechanics increasing the stress on the body. Ubaldo Jiminez and Lincecum have great mechanics, while players like Hamel’s don’t, so it’s no surprise how their seasons have gone so far.
I seem to remember a post on fangraphs around the start of the season that really tore into the Verducci effect.
He certainly has not examined his effect in a scientific way.
So by your analysis, unless Porcello’s mechanics are flawless, the Tigers would be smart to assume Verducci’s effect is not a farce. How certain are we (and more to the point, how certain are they) that Porcello is flawless enough to evade the effect, farcical or not?
Irrelevent to what i said. And no, i did not say flawless mechanincs, obviously by flawed i meant Kerry Wood and Chris Carpenter flawed. The “effect” has been proven time and time again to only apply to those who learned the wrong way to pitch.
And if Porcello does have bad mechanics, he will get hurt eventually, probably soon, but how many innings he pitches this year won’t change that.
Hey Joe, when was the V effect been “proven time and again to apply only to those who learned the wrong way to pitch.” Are you referencing a study of some kind? If so, do you have a link handy? It sounds interesting.
Hamels doesn’t have an apostrophe in his name.
He’s also exactly the same pitcher he was last year except for BABIP, so he’s really an exception to the Verducci affect, not the rule.
Umm, injured. nuff said.
Hamels hasn’t missed a start this season and his velocity is essentially the same as last year. I really have no idea what you’re talking about.
Don,
Look at this article here and the list in here.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/tom_verducci/04/07/yearafter.effect/index.html
Almost everyone, except Dana Eveland, are identical from last year if you measure pitcher performance by FIP, and practically none has hit the DL.
So, it would seem that the almost whole of 2009 is an exception to the Verducci rule. At which point it doesn’t remain a rule, really.
We really should all do a better job of watching our apostrophe usage.
You must have missed the constant nagging injuries and the offseason shoulder woes.
Did you just praise Lincecum’s mechanics?
Umm, give me a reason not to. Effecient, fluid, timing is proper, throws with his entire body…
How are Hamels’ mechanics so much worse than Lincecum’s? By the way, Hamels is not injured. He threw a two hitter in his last start, in case you’re scoring at home.
It doesn’t take a genius to notice how awkward Hamel’s delivery is, or his bad timing.