Pudge Pounds Number 300
Ivan Rodriguez hit career homerun number 300 on Sunday, putting himself in a special fraternity of backstops. Entering Sunday, only seven catchers had totaled 300 or more career homeruns while playing at least 3/4ths of their game at the position. They were:
Mike Piazza 427
Johnny Bench 389
Carlton Fisk 376
Yogi Berra 358
Lance Parrish 324
Gary Carter 324
ZiPS’ latest update has Pudge finishing with an additional seven homeruns through the end of the season, putting him about 17 shy of Parrish and Carter. Rodriguez’ placement on that list is pretty amazing when you consider his defensive reputation – well earned, mind you – as perhaps the best ever. Remember, Rodriguez has played the second most games at catcher of anyone in the history of the league, just over 2,300. That’s second to Carlton Fisk at 2,499. Depending on how Rodriguez’ season goes, he could find himself challenging that record at some point next season — assuming he can find a team.
Perhaps equally impressive to Pudge’s feat is Piazza’s. Sure, Piazza had his defensive shortcomings, especially later on, but his offensive totals are still awe-inspiring given the beatings he took behind the plate. Piazza ranks 14th in total games played as a backstop. As for some other catchers and their homerun totals, here’s a look at how ridiculous 300 homeruns really is:
As for other active catchers with a shot at 300, Jorge Posada sits at 226, Jason Varitek at 166, Ramon Hernandez at 138, Bengie Molina at 127, and A.J. Pierzynski at 102. That’s it for catchers over 100. Victor Martinez is the only catcher aged 30 or younger with 90, and the next youngest is Miguel Olio at 76. Brian McCann has 73 and he’s only 25, John Buck has 65 and is 28, Mike Napoli has 52 at age 27, and Joe Mauer has 50 at age 26.
Of course, the wild card in this could be a few weeks away, when Matt Wieters eventually arrives, but a question for discussion: which of the catchers is most likely to hit 300 homeruns? Or will any of them actually stick at catcher long enough to accomplish the feat as a catcher?
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Tough question. McCann is probably the best bet, as he is the youngest and has already established himself as a bigtime home run hitter; however, his defense isn’t very good, and he may not stay at catcher long enough.
I think Mauer has an okay chance; he could scrape out about 15 HR a year if he stays healthy. John Buck could get to 200, which would be quite an accomplishment.
If Mauer averages 15 HR a year for ten years he would have 200 and be 36. He needs to average 25 HR a year to have 300 by the age of 36, which is probably as long as he would be catching for. He is displaying a more power this year, but it’s probably too early to tell if its for real or not.
McCann would need to average 21 HR a year to get to 300 by the age of 36, which is entirely possible.
It’s also worth mentioning that Rodriguez was (almost certainly) a steroid user.
Well, if you’re going to bring up PEDs you can’t leave out Piazza either.
Well, I was looking at it using the “3/4 of games at catcher” thing. So Mauer could DH for several years after turning 36. Sure, he’s a longshot, but I think he’s got the best health chance of getting enough games at catcher. Obviously it’d help if he sustains his power gains so far this season.
I’d say McCann has the best shot, with the caveat I don’t really think any of them get there. I’m not so sure how long Mauer can stay behind the plate either.
What’s the latest on assessing the defensive contributions of catchers? Can we ballpark how many runs Pudge was saving in his prime?
Citizens Bank or Petco?
Methinks, M. Napoli has a good shot. Although, he has been injured for a good part of the last two seasons and is part of a platoon, he has moster power.
McCann probably has one of the best shots. He is amazingly durable and, at 25, is almost a third of the way there.
It depends how much transitioning to DH allows Posada to stick around for his part. Assuming he can maintain a 20-HR/year pace (big assumption, obviously), he’d need one additional year after his contract with the Yanks is up in 2011. Would a thirty-nine year-old Posada be able to play at DH for some team? There’s an outside shot he does it, if he still has the desire to keep playing once his current contract expires.
I am Matt Weiters.
You wish you could be Matt Wieters.
My gut feeling would be that Mauer has the best shot to play long enough and stay at catcher, health willing, but I don’t really see him having the power to get to 300 HR, and his health issues could end up being a major problem. McCann and Posada fit the power profile better, but Posada’s running out of time and I wonder how long McCann will stay a regular catcher, or how well his power will hold up if he does stay there for a long time. Weiters might be the one I would pick if I had to take a stab at someone to do it, but just because I don’t have that much confidence at picking any of the current catchers.
Posada would probably have hit another 20 this year had he not been heart. When he comes off the DL he can hit another ten or so. That gives him 236 at years end. Two more years of 20 after that and he has 276. He can do it.
I don’t see Varitek as having a remotely realistic chance at 300. He’s 37. Even if he played for another 6 years, which is unrealistic, he’d have to hit 22 per year to get there. He hasn’t hit 22 HRs in a season since 2005, and he’s already on the decline.
Ivan has caught 2206 games in his career and Fisk caught 2226 (Bob Boone is at 2225). Ivan should get the record for games caught within a month or so, barring injury. I think you must have looked at their total career games, not just their games at catcher.
This post showed up on Google News when I was doing my daily search for news on Matt Wieters, and there was a little picture box next to the search result, showing a trimmed-down version of the graph above. I was amused.
Nah, Piazza’s feat isn’t impressive. 70%of the time runners succeeded in stealing a base from him. That’s too much. Plus, when he hit, he never used his legs. Everybody else relied on the power of their legs, but not Piazza. He made his numbers in the steroid era.
It isn’t fair to punish everybody except Piazza. Piazza isn’t special, he doesn’t belong with that group.
Funny how this guy didn’t get nailed to the cross for steroids when he is nearly a poster boy for what the drug(s) can do to a body, and career. Just deny deny deny boys, save face. Apparantly that’s all we (the public) need to look the other way.