The Fifth Reason
Joe Pawlikowski made his debut here at FanGraphs by listing four reasons why teams are avoiding Jermaine Dye. I’d like to add a fifth.
He’s right-handed. Let me explain.
At this point in his career, Dye is essentially a DH who might be able to fake it at first base, depending on how hard he works at it. He’s not an outfielder anymore, not at 36-years-old and coming off a four year stretch of -20 UZRs. And, because of the physics of throwing across the infield, right-handed 1B/DH types just aren’t all that appealing.
Second baseman, third baseman, and shortstop all have to throw right-handed. It’s just the nature of tossing the ball to first base – left-handed throwers are restricted to first base or the outfield. Because one of the requirements of playing the three non-1B infield spots is throwing right-handed, it follows naturally that most of those infielders also hit right-handed.
There were 71 2B/3B/SS types who accumulated 100 or more games at those infield positions in 2009 – 47 of them bat from the right side. That’s 66 percent. Approximately 2/3 of all non-1B infielders are right-handed batters. And of the 24 guys who can swing it from the left side, a group of them aren’t really offensive threats; we’re talking guys like Geoff Blum, Cesar Izturis, and Kaz Matsui. The list of guys who can provide real offensive ability from the left side while playing 2B, 3B, or SS is pretty short.
What does any of this have to do with Jermaine Dye? Well, if you’re a team that is already stocked with right-handers around the infield, you’re running out of spots to get a really good left-handed hitter to balance out your line-up. Unless you have an MVP caliber center fielder, he’s probably not that guy. You might be able to get a left-handed thumping bat in a corner outfield spot, but those guys are expensive, and a lot of teams are realizing that it’s more cost efficient to put a good defender out there anyway.
This gives rise to a strong preference to fill your 1B/DH jobs with left-handed hitters. Dye is not only trying to convince teams that he can still hit after a miserable second half, but he’s also trying to convince them to forfeit a natural line-up spot that could go to a left-handed bat. For a lot of teams, this is just not worth doing.
Even if Dye can outproduce a comparable left-handed hitter by 5 or 10 percent, managers are going to prefer a balanced line-up, so that opposing managers can’t just shut down their offense with specialist relievers in every close game. And as a right-handed 1B/DH type, Dye threatens every team he may join with a lack of balance in their line-up.
Not only does he need to find a team that is interested in an aging DH, but he needs to find one that doesn’t have too many right-handed infielders on the roster. It should be no surprise that, given how many restrictions there are on teams who may be interested in his services, that there just isn’t much of a market for him.
If you’re a right-handed hitter, you don’t want to end up in the 1B/DH pool. Do whatever you can to sustain your defensive abilities at another position, because once you’re down that far on the defensive spectrum, your career as an everyday player is probably close to being over.
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And yet Kevin Millar received nearly 300 PA last year, often batting 4th.
Thankfully Cito will stop “managing” after 2010.
I enjoyed all those attempted zings on Moneyball by pointing out how Cito Gaston wanted hitters being more aggressive and blah blah (the Jays’ BB% increased in 2009 from 2008, but who needs facts?) and all these magical things that obviously won the Jays the WS, instead of such things as having enough talent that Jeff Kent was 1992 mid season trade bait, or a 1993 end of season lineup that featured such nobodies as Rickey Henderson and Paul Molitor and John Olerud and Robbie Alomar and Joe Carter. Yeah man, what an underdog story, Gaston really had to go above and beyond to win titles in the early 90′s.
What about the fact that Russell Branyan is sooo much better at defense and offense and could even maybe play some 3B?
Serious injury risk, however. He could be healthy the whole season, or he could blow a disk in spring training and never swing a bat in a game. And he wants two years. Once you’re down this far in the free agent barrel, it’s a question of picking your poison — and there aren’t that many teams left doing the picking, so there may be no niche for some of these guys. (At least until the inevitable injuries and in-season desperation kicks in).
Also, I doubt Branyan is a candidate for 3B. The M’s could’ve used him there in many of the games when Beltre was out with his cracked nut, and they never did.
So I guess the fifth reason helps explain why Jason Giambi does have a job right now.
Yeah. And guys like Miguel Cabrera and Derek Lee are a factor too: every RH 1B/DH type further reduces the opportunities for the next one in line.
OTOH, righthanded power is somewhat harder to come by, isnt it…?
(At least I believe this is the conventional wisdom)
FWIW, going by the first page of the leaderboards for the past three years combined in HR, SLG and ISO yields 18 rightes each time, with 14 lefties in the first two and thirteen in the last one. Hardly conclusive, but that would at least suggest that RH power might not be as scarce as CW says.
What about Albert Pujols and his four straight fielding bibles? Wait…sorry, I forgot who we were talking about.
Is there a reason you didn’t include catchers in your 2B/SS/3B listings?
you still need several left-handed bats. so if you’re one of the really lucky teams that has a good hitting left-handed (or switch hitting) catcher, you still need another one or two lefties to balance out the lineup – his argument that 1B/DH is the most likely place to stash them makes sense.
eg. Posada + Teixeira (both switch)
Mauer + Morneau + Kubel (all left)
V-Mart + Ortiz + Youkilis (an exception – but Youkilis is a lot better than Dye, and he is still perfectly capable of playing 3B if needed)
I think he would make a lot of sense for the Rangers as a backup to Chris Davis in case he flames out like last spring. The Rangers have a lot of LH hitters and are trying to decide whether to use their 25th spot on a backup CF or backup 1B/DH type. I’m rooting for CF, but the Rangers FO seems to be ok with rolling Hamilton out there when Borbon sits.
I don’t know if Dye would feel comfortable in a backup role, though he is approaching the age where he’ll have to start reducing his expectations.
I’m always concerned with players who are built like a rock, especially after having worked their way back from a serious injury. Not accusing JD or saying I know something – just pure conjecture. But is it possible that the clubs have a sixth reason?
it probably plays a role, but if does count as a sixth reason, it’s probably the sixth most important one. Jason Giambi got a pretty decent contract last year, as did Eric Gagne after his post-steroid breakdown at Boston.
Diamondbacks need an outfielder lefty. Maybe they could try something with Dye. Besides, Chase Field is a good place to hit fly balls as Dye likes hitting.