Twins Find Another Gem
The Minnesota Twins have been producing quality starting pitchers for years. From front of the rotation aces in Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano to useful innings eaters like Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, Scott Baker, and Boof Bonser, as well as a nifty trade chip in Matt Garza, there is seemingly never a shortage of quality pitchers taking the hill up in Minneapolis. It’s been a strength of the organization and the backbone on which a perennial division contender was built.
Well, it looks like they’ve done it once again. After losing Santana and Silva this winter, they handed a rotation spot to Nick Blackburn, a former 29th round selection in the 2001 draft who turned himself into a prospect through a volume of minor league success. As we can see from the pitch type data available here on FanGraphs, Blackburn’s stuff isn’t overpowering; he throws a 92 MPH fastball, an 88 MPH cut fastball (the pitches labeled as sliders are probably also cut fastballs), and a 75 MPH curveball, along with one or two change-ups per game. None of these pitches are a true knockout pitch, which is part of the reason his strikeout rates aren’t particularly high, and he wasn’t taken seriously as a prospect before 2007.
Through three starts, however, Blackburn is solidifying himself as a legitimate major league starting pitcher. Below are the two graphs that tell the story of his skillset and why it works.
Through his first 17 innings of 2008, Blackburn has shown impeccable command (less than two walks per nine innings) and pounded the zone with sinkers (60% groundball rate). While this isn’t as sexy as blowing hitters away with 96 MPH fastballs or a power curve, the combination of throwing strikes and getting ground balls is a proven winner. This is the Aaron Cook/Jake Westbrook path to success – pound the strike zone with pitches at the knees, don’t put anyone on base without making them swing, and let your infielders do the work.
Blackburn’s minor league data suggests that he probably won’t keep getting groundballs at quite this rate, and he’s unlikely to post an ERA below 4.00 this year, but he’s clearly showing that he’s got enough movement on his sinker and command of three pitches to keep hitters off balance and succeed as a pitch to contact starter. Chalk up another success story for the Twins pitching development machine.
Print This Post
Did the Twins clone Brade Radke?
Brad Radke was the opening day starter the year after Johan’s first Cy Young Award because Gardenhire didn’t want to “fix what isn’t broken” so to speak; Radke had been opening day starter for a few years running.
I watched Blackburn’s first start and he didn’t blow me away but he was definitely a very solid-looking back-end of the rotation guy. In my eyes guys like this are invaluable, especially when they can eat innings.
I might do a study to see how bullpens fare, innings-wise and effectiveness-wise when backing a #1/#2 pitcher as compared to the #3-#5. Generally speaking you would probably expect the top-line guys to stay in longer, offering less of a necessity for the bullpen; the back end guys would likely require more bullpen help.
I bring up Radke because they both have a K/9 around 5-6 with extremely low walk rates. I guess Blackburn is a bit more of a groundball pitcher, which might make him just a tad more successful than Radke.
I wouldn’t exactly call Radke an ace, if that’s what you’re implying. The Twins didn’t have the greatest pitching staff for much of his career.
Radke wasn’t chopped liver, either. In 12 seasons, he had a WARP3 of 73.7, which made him about a six win pitcher.
I’m not sure Radke’s a great comparison due to the different pitch arsenals. Radke had a devastating change-up, which helped keep left-handed batters at bay and gave him a swing-and-a-miss pitch when he needed it. Blackburn doesn’t have anything as good as Radke’s change, and his FB/CT/CB combo isn’t as well equipped to deal with left handed hitters.
The Westbrook comparison is the one that works the best for me, I think. There’s Jason Johnson downside here too, but that’s the kind of pitcher I see Blackburn being.
I think that the Twins made a big mistake in not accepting Boston’s Jacoby Ellsbury in a standalone trade (without pitcher Jon Lester) for Johan Santana. That would have been better than the package of Carlos Gomez plus three pitchers from the Mets, given that Minnesota is already a pitching-heavy team and desperately needs hitting. The only advantage is that the Mets aren’t an American League team, meaning that the Twins wouldn’t have to face Santana, except possibly in a World Series.
Going into tonight’s games, Ellsbury has added .25 WPA to Boston, the same as Santana has for the Mets so far in 2008. Carlos Gomez is a negative factor for Minnesota so far; he’s not really ready to go like Ellsbury. And speaking of World Series experience, Ellsbury has it, was certainly the most valuable rookie, and arguably the most valuable player last fall.
Minnesota didn’t really have Santana because they couldn’t sign him to a long-term contract; they had a piece of him (one year’s worth). On the other hand, Ellsbury would have belonged to them for 6 years. Plus, he’s effectively worth two top players, one in his own right, plus the one that the Twins could hire using the $12.6 million difference in salaries between Santana and him.
“Blackburn doesn’t have anything as good as Radke’s change, and his FB/CT/CB combo isn’t as well equipped to deal with left handed hitters.”
Though I agree with that statement, Blackburn has been more effective against LHB vs. RHB in 2008 thus far. While the sample size is miniscule, left-handed opponents are batting .239/.271/.348 in 48 plate appearances while right-handed opponents are hitting .333/.370/.373 in 55 plate appearances. This was also true in his tenure at double-A and triple-A in 2007 where right-handed batters were hitting better than left-handed ones. For whatever the reason (pitch selection, location, etc) Blackburn has kept left-handed hitters at bay.