Organizational Rankings: #17

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins

#17: Chicago White Sox

Ownership: B

Jerry Reinsdorf has a reputation for being a lot of things, but most of those are leftover from his more aggressive days in the 1990s. Of late, he’s settled into more of a bankroll position, handing the White Sox enough cash to be an upper echelon team in payroll over the last five years. While they built the worst of the new stadiums, it still generates a solid amount of revenue, and the White Sox shouldn’t have too many problems maintaining a high level of payroll for the foreseeable future.

Front Office: B-

What can you say about Kenny Williams. He gets into public feuds with his manager, former players, media members, scouts… let’s just say he’s a challenge to work with. And, early in his career as a GM, he did some really dumb things. But he’s grown, he’s adapted, and now he’s more like that obsessive fantasy league owner who won’t stop trading until he has a good team again. He stole Carlos Quentin from the D’Backs and John Danks from the Rangers. He built a bullpen out of waiver claims like Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton. He got bargains with veteran sluggers Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye (the first contract, not the second one). He’s always making moves to try and make the club better, and while he misses some, he’s shown a knack for snagging talent at the right time and putting together consistently good squads. Plus, he’s stayed somewhat sane while dealing with Ozzie Guillen on a daily basis, so he gets a few extra credit points.

Major League Talent: C+

Are they contending with an aging core (Thome, Dye, Konerko, Pierzynski, Contreras, Colon, even Buehrle to an extent) or rebuilding with a youth movement (Ramirez, Fields, Quentin, Danks, and Floyd)? Leave it to Kenny Williams to try both simultaneously. There’s some good young players in place, but the teams fortunes are still heavily tied to the aging stars of yesterday. On the positive side, most of those players are still contributors, and the White Sox should have enough firepower to keep up in the AL Central this year, providing they can fix their two gaping holes – center field and second base. With competent major league players in those spots, they’ll be a quality team this year, and the future salary obligations take a huge dive after the year ends, which should allow Williams to surround the young talent with some more productive high paid players.

Minor League Talent: C

Gordon Beckham’s move to second base gives him a quick path to the major leagues, and the offense is there for him to be an all-star caliber player at the keystone for years to come. Aaron Poreda is actually one of the more underrated arms in the minors, I think – his secondary stuff needs work, but his combination of velocity, sink, and command can get him through while his slider catches up to his fastball. After those two, it gets a little more tricky – Brandon Allen and Dayan Viciedo both offer intriguing power bats, but neither of them are much defensively, so where they fit into a future line-up is in question. Tyler Flowers was a nice pickup in the Javier Vazquez trade, and Jordan Danks and John Shelby provide some position player depth. It’s not a great system, but it’s not nearly as bad as most people think.

Overall: C+

Hard to believe that Jerry Reinsdorf is the strength of the organization, but there you go. The team has enough resources to consistently compete for high salaried players, and Kenny Williams has shown an aptitude for picking up enough good, cheap role players to surround his core and make consistent runs at playoff spots. The roster is in transition, but they should be able to avoid a total rebuild and win while reloading. They make some strange moves, but overall, the package mostly works. It could improved upon, but it’s not a bad time to be a White Sox fan.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

47 Comments
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Logger
15 years ago

Let the Mariner bashing and accusations of Mariner bias commence…

Wally
15 years ago
Reply to  Logger

I haven’t been meaning to Mariner bash, it just seems rather suspicious how much weight Dave is giving to the projection of how Zduriencik will do as a GM.

Anyway, I still had the White Sox below the M’s in my personal ranking another poster put up his remaining list in the last part so let continue it:

16 mariners
15 rangers
14 orioles
13 brewers
12 dbacks
11 angels
10 dodgers
9 phillies
8 athletics
7 mets
6 cubs
5 rays
4 yankees
3 braves
2 Indians
1 red sox

It was pretty hard for me to arrange the order from the Brewers to the Cubs. Balancing a team as a heavy favorite to win the division this year, with poor other aspects was difficult. Ultimately I gave more weight to teams more likely to win this year, sense that is easier to predict than 2-4 years down the road. Hence the Cubs are ahead of the A’s, for example.

Todd
15 years ago
Reply to  Wally

I wonder if this is where you have some philosophical discord with these rankings. I don’t think you could/should take a “let’s wait and see” approach to evaluating a GM. I think that you can make a pretty good evaluation of a GM and his (or her, somebody hire Kim Ng already) transactions even before that team takes the field. The Ms have had a *very* good off season, and this reflects well on Jack Z and his philosophy. I don’t think Dave is evaluating him just on a “projection” (although we can tell what sort of moves he will make in the future based on what moves he makes now).

ESW
15 years ago
Reply to  Wally

I would expect the Angels to actually be one of the next couple teams. They’re still the favorites in 2009, but not by much at all, and I think all 3 other teams in the division are in significantly better shape past that.

Wally
15 years ago
Reply to  Wally

You got my “wait and see” approach wrong. I’m not waiting for his team to win, I’m waiting for more than 3 months of a body of work as a GM to make a strong conclusion about his abilities. That first trade of Putz was great, but that was kind of a no-brainer right? A team like the Mariners has no business keeping an overvalued closer. That he recognizes that is great, but there’s a lot more to being a GM. Other than that trade I don’t see much information to go off of. The Griffey signing was questionable, but its not for much money. So basically, his history is pretty good, but its not long enough to make a strong conclusion.

Wally
15 years ago
Reply to  Wally

ESW, yes I debated putting the Angels lower, but their chance to win the division this year takes them past the O’s and Rangers, who are pretty far off.

ThundaPC
15 years ago
Reply to  Wally

Eh, don’t take this the wrong way Wally, but your criteria reads more like a glorified PECOTA/CHONE projection than something that provides insight on where organizations around the league stack up. This is the kind of analysis that allows people to miss the boat on the possibility that the Devil Rays will eventually be good. Keep in mind, the Rays revamped Ownership/Front Office has been around since late 2005.

I think people are getting too worked up over teams being not being ranked where they expect them to be ranked. This feature should be used for people to educate themselves further about what’s going on with other organizations around baseball and how likely they are to build and/or maintain a World Series caliber team.

vivaelpujols
15 years ago
Reply to  Wally

You can’t take Dave’s rankings as gospel. Often educated fans of a certain team, have a better idea of how their team is set up for the future, than Dave, who is going broad spectrum (I’m not meaning to imply that he isn’t thorough, but he just doesn’t pay attention to teams equally)

Double06
15 years ago
Reply to  Wally

VEP — agreed. Dave has said before on USSM that it’s physically impossible for a national writer, no matter how good he is, to cover one ballclub as well as a blogger who is devoted to writing for one team. This series is some of Dave’s most fascinating work and it’s too bad that people put unrealistic expectations that he’s not covering their team as well as the team’s bloggers can.

I can’t believe how many times this needs to be repeated: This isn’t objective writing. People need to stop treating it like it’s definitive analysis and take it for what it’s worth.

Wally
15 years ago
Reply to  Wally

Thunda, I’m not sure how I would take that the wrong way, it is what it is. So to answer your criticism: Yes I did look at the projections for this year, but I also looked at the farm rankings, and used what I knew about ownership/FO tendencies. For example, the Rangers are out of it this year, but they have one of the best farm systems in the game right now. However, I see a GM that has a dubious trade history, and appears to have major problems signing good pitching. Add it up, and despite their farm system, I’m not terribly optimistic about their chances going forward.

Then you comment on the Rays. Well, they have a very good team, but it probably isn’t going to reach the playoffs this year. Second, they have a great farm, so they look good past 2009. However, what happens when all this young talent starts getting expensive? I can’t answer that question, so I have to take them down a peg or two.

Also, ask yourself this question: If this we strictly a PECOTA projection, why are the dodgers so low? Why would I put the favorites in there division behind a team expected to finished 3rd?

Lastly, this wasn’t meant to be terribly insightful all by itself, just the ranking without much explanation can’t tell you much. But it was fun for me to put together, and I figured it would spark some conversation.