Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 12/12/2017

Christian Yelich: Odds i’m traded? Might see a HR spike away from Marlins Park?

Brad Johnson: Oh, hi there folks, let’s begin

Brad Johnson: Yelich is very likely to be traded by midseason. Given his consistently high HR/FB ratio, I don’t think we’ll see more homers in another venue.

Duncan: Where does Machado end up? And what do the Orioles get in return?

Brad Johnson: A little early to get a clean read on this. I’ll say St. Louis or San Francisco. Package led by Jack Flaherty or Tyler Beede plus another decent but unexceptional prospect. One year of Machado is valuable, but it’s not worth a monster haul.

Kristaps: Francisco Mejia… Will he start 2018 in the Minors or as Cleveland everyday catcher? Trade possibility?

Brad Johnson: The Indians have a deep group at catcher. I’ll bet on Triple-A until he forces the issue.

Matt: ottoneu FGPoints question for you Brad.  Keep $4 Folty and $5 Davies?  Rotation is $40 Scherzer, $25 Greinke, $19 Cole, $18 C-Mart, $15 R. Ray and $14 G. Richards.  How about a $20 Marte?  Thanks!!

Brad Johnson: I’m not a big fan of Starling Marte in FGpts. He’s kind of a $3 OFer. Too much of his fantasy value is tied up in SB and batting average.

Brad Johnson: As for Folty and Davies, they’re decent fliers at those costs, especially Davies. Depends on your budget constraints though, you may be better served hoping to find similar assets for $1.

Zach: How much of a boost does Machado get in your rankings if he plays SS next year?

Brad Johnson: None.

Brad Johnson: Really

Brad Johnson: He does get a small boost in ottoneu since there is a MI but no CI slot,

Brad Johnson: Creates some MI scarcity relative to CIs

Brad Johnson: But a normal league is just as deep at SS, MI, 3B, and CI

Guest: Kiermaier has about a 20/20 projection for next year.  Do you think he can reach that?

Brad Johnson: Smells pretty high. 15/15 is closer to my median expectation.

Skipper: Do you think Aaron Hicks can put up a .350+ wOBA again or will be settle in around .330? Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: I’ll take the middle at .340 wOBA

Carl: Padres have been active – do you see them making more deals or staying put?  Other than Hand, who is most likely to be traded?

Brad Johnson: Seems like they’re trying to put a better product on the field. I don’t think we’ll see too many more trades for them aside from Hand. However, don’t be surprised if they sign someone like Zack Cozart.

Bleh: What are we thinking about Trevor Rosenthal for next season?

Brad Johnson: He’s out.

Jerry: Dynasty league, keep forever, uses Ottoneu’s FGPts scoring. Gerrit Cole or Joey Gallo?

Brad Johnson: Gallo

Skipper: These Winter Meetings have been a snoozefest.

Brad Johnson: Have they? Maybe I’ve just been lulled for so long by this current market, but they’ve felt pretty busy to me

JD Martin: over/under on 35 Matt Olson dongs?

Brad Johnson: Easy under

Brad Johnson: Not to say he can’t get to 35 home runs, but it requires a lot of faith in his ability to stay healthy and adjust to scouting reports.

Rico: If Rosenthal is out in STL, who’s in?

Brad Johnson: They haven’t signed that player yet. A free agent or trade acquisition of some kind

Carl: Was Rendon’s last season a career year, or does he still have another step forward to make?   On a related note, who would you say is 2018’s Rendon? ie, solid player who takes a step forward.

Brad Johnson: That will probably go down as his best season. He could mostly repeat the offensive numbers with some modest regression in OBP. I don’t think another step forward is likely. He already drank Daniel Murphy’s kool aid.

Brad Johnson: He looks maxed out to me.

Guest: Ok, with all of the infield moves for the Yankees…does Gleyber Torres have a clear shot at a starting spot when they break camp?

Brad Johnson: Sure looks like it. We’ll see who else they add over the winter.

Brad Johnson: They are far from done.

ryan: Keep forever league 17 MILB 42 total normal formatting: offering Corey Ray or Tyler O Neill is reasonable  for a backend starter right? Low4 era type pitcher.

Brad Johnson: Smells fine. However, I would wait until the start of the season to make that move. Prospects are basically bonds. At some point in the future, they mature or default. When trading bonds for pitchers, I prefer to dodge Spring Training injuries.

weezy: Curious why the queue opens an hour early if those questions are planning on getting ignored 🙂

Brad Johnson: I’ve actually already answered a third of them. In the winter, the chat queue sometimes hits a lull so I’ll go back and answer a few early ones

Brad Johnson: During the season, I don’t open the queue early because I get way too many questions to answer

Ty: Are the Blue Jays going to become sellers at anytime this offseason?

Ty: Chances of Donaldson getting traded?

Brad Johnson: So, feels like it’s 100% that he’ll get traded

Brad Johnson: hard to imagine the Jays actually contending

Brad Johnson: that said, an offseason trade doesn’t sound very likely. They may jump on one of the Machado losers though

Dan: Who are some under the radar MLB SP to buy for 2018 (dynasty format, 400 MLBers kept)? Thanks!

George Brett’s Pine Tar: What is the deal with Trevor Williams? Does he have the chance to put it together this season?

Brad Johnson: Trevor Williams is one of the under the radar guys I like. Let’s start with him

Brad Johnson: For one, he’s already put it together

Brad Johnson: This is what he is, a back end starter with a low-4s ERA

Brad Johnson: Doesn’t have any of the weapons to exceed that. Small chance he’ll buff his ground ball rate, but that’s the only path to more value

Brad Johnson: Great back end flier or streamer, not a ton of breakout potential

Brad Johnson: Better fit for dynasty where pure volume is useful

Brad Johnson: I like a Jerad Eickhoff rebound – if he’s healthy

Brad Johnson: he wasn’t last season

Brad Johnson: Kevin Gausman’s always worthy of a dice roll. Could solve for X at any time. Like Perdomo, Beede, both Montys, Tyler Anderson, German Marquez, McCarthy, Josh Tomlin, and Eduardo Rodriguez

Brad Johnson: Those are obviously of varying quality. If you believe Steamer, Anderson will be the best value in baseball

Brad Johnson: Chad Kuhl, Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Kyle Gibson, Kendall Graveman, Tyler Chatwood, Jake Junis, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jose Urena, and Adam Conley are probably worth a look too.

Brad Johnson: I’m going to assume trendy pitchers like Luiz Gohara and Luis Castillo are not any kind of available

Brad Johnson: Those are all lotto tickets of some sort

Guest: Morton?

Brad Johnson: Morton is a stud. If anybody is sleeping on him, they’re a fool

Anthony: Who’s your favorite rookie on the season? Torres, Acuña? Want some names…

Brad Johnson: Definitely Acuna followed by Calhoun and Torres. I haven’t hunted much for upcoming rookies yet – I only do one redraft league so all these guys have been owned for years in my formats

Carl: Is there anything wrong with the Sox that a better year from Hanley, a full year from Devers and a better bench can’t solve?  It seems to me that people think they need JD Martinez, but that they really don’t have a place for him.

Brad Johnson: What’s wrong with 1B/DH?

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t count on anything from Hanley, he’s rarely healthy.

Brad Johnson: Let yourself be pleasantly surprised by him rather than counting on him to be a mid-lineup presence

SparkyMcguffy: Could the Sox move Haney for “something” to open up DH/1B? Seems like they are “counting” on him to rebound.. not sure I feel that confident in him for anything, maybe DD doesn’t either.

Brad Johnson: Oh hey.

Brad Johnson: No, I think you keep Hanley on the roster and just juggle it all.

Brad Johnson: Injuries will very quickly “solve” any redundancies

Skipper: Who do you prefer for 2018: Matt Olson or Greg Bird?

Brad Johnson: Oh. That’s the tough one.

Brad Johnson: In both cases, I’m looking at them as sell-high candidates. You want to wait for irrational love to kick in then sell high

Brad Johnson: I think Bird can get you more, but he’s also more likely to completely bomb. He seems to need some very major adjustments.

The old professor: Odds that Gleyber

The old professor: odds that Gleyber is in the opening day lineup now that Headley is

The old professor: gone? I’m thinking  Boone brings him in on day 1 like Torre did w Jeter

Brad Johnson: I’ll set the line at 60%. It really depends on 1. who they sign over the rest of the winter and 2. how he performs this spring.

Carl: Dee Gordon had about 5% of the steals that were rosterable in the NL last year.   How much does his switching leagues cause Hamilton’s value to go up in NL only leagues?

Brad Johnson: Well, let’s see if/where Hamilton is traded. Seems semi-likely

Brad Johnson: Beyond that, if he stays in the NL, I don’t think Gordon leaving really affects his value. On the one hand, it makes it much easier to win the category. On the other hand, every other owner has a path to second place.

Brad Johnson: Why not let one person overpay for 1 category Hamilton and shoot for second or third in the category with better values?

Tommy: Are current baseball economics creating a handful of super teams and everyone else scrambling for a Wild Card? Seems like 8-10 buyers and everyone else ‘rebuilding’.

Brad Johnson: This is a fun one, let’s spend a little time on this. Feel free to interject as I share some thoughts

Brad Johnson: I think what we’re seeing right now is a symptom of a few things that happened about five years ago

Brad Johnson: data quality and analytical resources suddenly took a huge leap forward

Brad Johnson: a few rebuilding first movers – the Astros, Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees were able to fully leverage new data to build super teams. Other franchises are playing catch up, but they’re mostly on the same page now

Brad Johnson: a few clubs like the Marlins notwithstanding

Brad Johnson: Baseball has also become hyper saturated in cash. Even a tiny market club like the Brewers can consider making a play for a top free agent

Brad Johnson: The only thing holding every club back from fielding over a $100MM roster is their own debt burdens (incidentally, that’s why the Marlins are in fire sale mode)

Brad Johnson: This combination of information and resources should help league parity long term. Presently, we do have a handful of super teams. Luckily the 2 wild card format has encouraged most teams to field a competitive roster into the summer months. You never know when you’re going to find a miracle or two

Brad Johnson: Actually, the 2017 Yankees are a pretty good example

Brad Johnson: The Red Sox were much worse than anticipated, and they got more than they could have hoped from breakout performers

Brad Johnson: Of their entire roster, only Bird underperformed projections

Brad Johnson: Maybe Tanaka too, but he was good enough

Hinkie: The Rays got Jose De Leon for Logan Forsythe last winter.  What kind of a return can Cesar Hernandez bring the Phillies this winter ?  What other pieces would be needed for a CeHe for Tyler Skaggs deal ?

Brad Johnson: The Angels are short on pitching depth as it is, so I don’t see this as an effective framework

Brad Johnson: Also worth noting that Hernandez is considerably better than Forsythe

Brad Johnson: He’s just as cheap too

Brad Johnson: Personally, I think the Phillies would be very foolish to trade Hernandez. I know the fans are clamoring to see Scott Kingery, but it’s very unlikely he’s a better player than Hernandez. Just sit on the depth for now.

Brad Johnson: That’s my advice to the Phillies.

Brad Johnson: Hernandez was the 8th best 2B by WAR in 2017

Brad Johnson: His 3.3 WAR was tied with Dee Gordon, .2 WAR behind Jed Lowrie, and just ahead of Robinson Cano and Whit Merrifield.

Brad Johnson: Fair to say they all tied for 6th-10th

Brad Johnson: In 2016 which was a mutant year for 2B, Hernandez had 4.3 WAR, good for 9th best (DJ LeMahieu was 10th – also at 4.3 WAR, another tie).

Tommy: So, more of a first mover advantage into analytics and developing the farm system and not just a payroll/market size issue. Appreciate the input, thanks!

Brad Johnson: The current luxury tax rules act as a much stronger cap than in past iterations

Brad Johnson: So most clubs are going to be living between $100MM and $197MM in payroll. With a few teams occasionally going over. And the Marlins, Rays, and A’s languishing

Brad Johnson: Those aren’t exactly even terms, but it’s close enough for most teams to build a super roster with the right moves

Brad Johnson: Another matter I forgot to mention, replacement level has increased considerably in recent years. Or more specifically, the supply of 0-2 WAR players has increased substantially

Mitch: Would you deal Nomar Mazara for Ian Happ in a dynasty? I know hes young but only 2 of 40 career bombs come against leftys.

Brad Johnson: I think that’s a gamble you can make. Both talented players with flaws and huge breakout potential

Jeff: Where can I find a dynasty league?

Brad Johnson: ottoneu is a good entry level option

Brad Johnson: it’s not as deep as what I consider to be dynasty, but I’ve had people tell me their 10 team, 25 player roster league is a dynasty

Brad Johnson: ottoneu rosters 480 players leaguewide

Brad Johnson: It’s a challenge to find those deep dynasty leagues – and they’re usually quite dysfunctional

Jutch Bones: Luis Castillo or Zach Godley in 2018 and beyond, all else being equal. Nola or Darvish in 2018 only?

Brad Johnson: Darvish

Brad Johnson: I’m going to say Godley. I see him as a higher floor asset with only a slightly lower ceiling

Brad Johnson: As much as I like Castillo, I worry about any young pitcher at Great American Smallpark

Schmegs: How are you valuing Willie Calhoun and his 2B eligibility?

Brad Johnson: Calhoun is not 2B eligible in most formats. Also, as Jeff Z noted, there is no position scarcity in 2018 (except for catcher).

Brad Johnson: Calhoun played exactly zero games at 2B in his MLB stint. It’s possible Yahoo will manually add the eligibility (they do that sometimes), but I can’t predict that

Brad Johnson: I figure it’s unlikely

Brad Johnson: I got distracted by some trade offers 🙂

Brad Johnson: I’ll brb

Brad Johnson: ok

Eldrick Woods: Is David Dahl a breakout candidate this year? Does Ian Dezzymond rebound?

Brad Johnson: Both are good buy low candidates

Brad Johnson: I don’t see Raimel Tapia as a big impediment to playing time for Dahl if he’s healthy and hitting

Brad Johnson: Decent chance Desmond has a dead cat bounce in him

Brad Johnson: don’t pay to find out though

Brad Johnson: If it’s not a $2 flier or less, it’s too much

danny: do you see the yankees getting cole or fulmer?

Brad Johnson: Not really, but I can’t rule it out

Brad Johnson: they have this hopelessly blocked Clint Frazier on their roster

Brad Johnson: He’s enough to acquire either pitcher

Anthony: Tell us about your trade offers!

Brad Johnson: People in this league tend to get grumpy when I write about their offers

Brad Johnson: I can tell you a fresh new tale called:

Brad Johnson: The Disaggregation of Josh Donaldson

Brad Johnson: Once upon a time (i.e. earlier today), a guy owned a Josh Donaldson. He solicited offers from all over the land and ultimately traded his Donaldson for a Nick Williams and Raimel Tapia

Brad Johnson: Donaldson’s new owner brought him home and placed him in his field

Brad Johnson: Then his neighbor brought over a Shane Baz, Alex Jackson, Adrian Morejon, Luis Robert, and Josh Naylor. He left those and stole away Donaldson

Brad Johnson: And that’s the end of the story

Brad Johnson: there’s no moral. He was traded twice today. That’s all.

Dynasty Probz: So we have a pretty sweet dynasty league. 12 team, roto. Keep 5 guys per year with escalating cost based on where they were originally drafted. Can keep 1 MILB from our MILB draft as long as the player is still MILb. We have previously allowed for trading picks and it seems like we have a tanking issue. One player accumulated an insane amount of high round picks last season and basically started punting the season last year at the draft but is loaded this year. Some people want to now limit how many picks you can acquire even if the trades you are making are fair, but others think we should have higher penalty for last place. Thoughts on some ways to challenge this?

Brad Johnson: This is what I was talking about earlier. This is not dynasty league. It’s a slightly complicated keeper format. But let’s plow ahead 🙂

Brad Johnson: To me, when you introduce complicated rules, it acts as a means to exploit the less savvy owners in the league.

Brad Johnson: So if you do have some asymmetry with regard to owner quality, it does make sense to scale back the draft pick trading process with limits (or doing away with it entirely)

Brad Johnson: if your owners are all comparably competent, just let it play out

Brad Johnson: Some people will make ugly mistakes on occasion, but they’ll learn from them

Brad Johnson: long term, it should be fine

Brad Johnson: since you keep so few players, no mistake will have more than a couple years or repercussion

Matt: Justin Bour worth hanging onto after the firesale happens in MIami?

Brad Johnson: Without any other context, sure

Brad Johnson: He’s a solid hitter. If you’re paying a serious amount to keep him, consider $1 alternative like Alonso or LoMo

Dub: How can I stop bad owners from continually making awful trades? The best team in the league continues to give nothing for something with the worst owner in the league. There’s no commish, Scoresheet run public league. Ive been in the league for 7-8 years and don’t want to just walk away from my team but terrible owners make me debate it.

Brad Johnson: Ugh, sounds like you don’t have any recourse

Brad Johnson: Ideally, I would boot the bad owner, sounds like they either don’t care or are actively colluding

Brad Johnson: usually, what looks like collusion is actually laziness

Brad Johnson: since you can’t boot the bad owner, maybe try getting together a cohort of other long standing owners and threaten the guy who’s taking advantage of him

Brad Johnson: Just say he needs to stop exploiting that owner or else you’ll all quit

Brad Johnson: then his league is dead. Could slow him down

Brad Johnson: feels like a bad option, but without a commish, what else can you do?

Pete: Shouldn’t Cleveland be in on Machado?  Seems like a great fit, and the Tribe have the farm to get it done.

Brad Johnson: Probably. Don’t rule them out either. The O’s only started soliciting offers a couple hours ago

Anthony: I love that Donaldson got traded twice in one day, that’s awesome. Thanks for the story…and I understand the sensitivity of the league as well, that’s totally fair!

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Hey Brad, youve helped me a ton before so thanks in advance. Im in a 5×5, keep 5 league (heavy weight on SLUG and OBP). I can keep 5 of Hoskins, Judge, Ramirez (Jose), Bumgarner, Bellinger, JD Martinez, Gary Sanchez, Corey Seager.

Brad Johnson: Let’s see…Judge, Ramirez, and Sanchez are no-brainers

Brad Johnson: I’d probably do JDM and Seager, but wait to see where JDM signs

JOE: Would you trade JDM and Giancarlo for Scherzer and Votto in a dynasty OPS and TB league? Seems like too much power to give up in that format but it’s intriguing to me.

Brad Johnson: Nope

Brad Johnson: Have had a standing offer of Scherzer for JDM since the start of the offseason. I’m not taking it. I may reconsider on April 1 depending on my roster composition

Dub: Re: Bad Owners- This owner doesnt care, or is just bad at fantasy baseball. I guess I just need to work harder to beat them but it drives me nuts, feels like Im up against a stacked deck

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Re: Where would he sign that makes you go “forget it”?

Brad Johnson: San Fran, Pittsburgh, or any offense with a very low run projection

Brad Johnson: None of which are especially likely

Tony P: Since Machado wants to go back to SS, which side says no to Machado+reliever for Schwarber and Russell?

Brad Johnson: From the queue – the Cubs say no to this

Brad Johnson: The Cubs say no to Schwarber OR Russell alone for Machado and an arm

Brad Johnson: If they were getting 2 or more years of Machado, then there might be some traction

Brad Johnson: It’s hard to justify moving that much future value for just one shot at a WS. The more shots, the easier the justification

Angus: What are your thoughts on Tapia and Verdugo for 2018?  Do either of them crack the line-up full time?  400 at bats?

Brad Johnson: I like them both in a general sense. I worry about Tapia’s fantasy profile though

Brad Johnson: He looks like Alcides Escobar as an outfielder at Coors Field with less speed

Brad Johnson: He’s more likely to play a lot this year than Verdugo

Brad Johnson: Verdugo is a much better prospect and well equipped to thrive in the majors. He’s just dealing with a lot of depth ahead of him

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: I love Tapia next year, if cargo gets traded he will play almost everyday right?

Brad Johnson: He’s an aggressive, high whiff rate hitter with no plate discipline, no fly balls, and poor SB success rates in the minors

Brad Johnson: He’ll bat eight while providing almost no fantasy fuel

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Re: well now I dont

mike sixel: You are arguing the Yankees have no advantage, right after they add Stanton? If there was no, no trade clause, how many teams could take that on, and still add more talent?

Brad Johnson: The Yankees have a huge advantage. It’s just smaller than it was during the 90s and 00s.

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: What’s your favorite kind of league? I personally love redrafts just because it’s starting over from scratch every year. Draft day is like a holiday.

Brad Johnson: Considering the vast majority of my leagues can be described as a dynasty, I’ll go with dynasty. Means a lot of different things though

JD Martin: Austin Hays put together a big year in high A & AA before getting promoted in September, is he basically ML ready or does he need more seasoning?  Not sure what to think of him from a dynasty perspective

Brad Johnson: He’s a high value lotto ticket

Brad Johnson: there’s serious risk in the profile, but he could turn into something very impressive

Brad Johnson: I’m always very wary of high whiff rate prospects. Hays falls into that bucket.

Brad Johnson: Ok, I’m going to call it a day. Thanks for playing!