First Base 2024 Fantasy Rankings

No, Freddie Freeman is unlikely to score 130 runs again and I’m not even sure hitting directly behind Shohei Ohtani will benefit him, as the bases will be cleared a bit more often than in the past, hampering his RBI opps. But still, he’s a lock for a .300+ batting average, plus, he’s suddenly a basestealer!

It was a career year for Matt Olson, with personal bests in multiple metrics, but it’ll be a challenge to post close to 266 RBI + R again. His batting average will be key to his ROI this season, as his career best BABIP was driven by a significant improvement in IFFB%, which could prove to be a one year fluke or be sustained. Is your crystal ball clear enough to determine where that BABIP falls?

Since his monster 2021, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has trended in the wrong direction. But, he did significantly underperform his xwOBA this past season, suggesting there was at least some poor fortune. He continues to record the elite maxEV that reminds us his mammoth power is still in that bat, but needs to ensure his FB% remains up to actually take advantage.

Aside from a career low FB%, Bryce Harper was in vintage form in his return from Tommy John surgery. A fully healthy season could earn him first tier value, but that has become a rarity.

Pete Alonso is essentially a poor man’s Olson, but Statcast suggests he deserved better than a weak .205 BABIP and .217 batting average. Still, with all those fly balls and below average LD%, don’t go expecting a significant rebound there. 40 homers, though, appears to be a lock.

Paul Goldschmidt‘s 2022 career year — his best wOBA yet — proved to be too difficult to repeat, or even come close to, perhaps due to his 35 years of age. Still, with strong all-around contributions, a higher xwOBA than actually posted, and no clear signs of imminent decline, he should continue to deliver.

Guess who’s back, back again, Cody Bellinger‘s back. After two disastrous offensive seasons, he rebounded so dramatically that it’s easy to forget his 2021 and 2022 seasons even happened. Behind the turnaround was a significant improvement in strikeout rate to a career best, along with a career high BABIP. While it’s understandable to believe his struggles are officially behind him, don’t gloss over the fact that he overperformed his xwOBA by a meaningful 0.039 points. He’s never come anywhere close to such overperformance, so it’s safe to say that his performance was aided by some pretty good fortune. Having resigned with the Cubs, his value doesn’t change any as the park is slightly negative for left-handed home runs.

It seems like former prospect Christian Walker is finally blooming, but he’s actually already 32 and will be 33 by the time the 2024 season begins! What’s driven the back-to-back 30-homer seasons ia FB% that has surged into the mid-40% range, along with a nice sub-20% strikeout rate, which is pretty solid for a power hitter. I wouldn’t bet on double digit steals again, but 30 homers is in the bag.

A massive FB% has kept Anthony Santander‘s homer total afloat, even as his HR/FB rate hit a career low this past season. I can’t imagine any further downside there given the healthy maxEV and Barrel%. However, current risks include a career worst strikeout rate and some xwOBA overperformance.

Nolan Jones hit the jackpot when he was traded to the Rockies toward the end of 2022. He was actually so good with the Rockies, he didn’t even need Coors Field’s offense-inflating magic, as his wOBA splits were almost identical at both home and on the road! Obviously, he’s not going to BABIP .401 again, but he’s had a history of skyhigh BABIP marks in the minors. His HR/FB rate is also fully backed up by his superb maxEV and Barrel%. Assuming the Rockies don’t play games here, he should play every day (almost even platoon splits) and contribute like a mini-Bellinger.

Having missed the entire 2023 season after tearing his ACL just before the season started, Rhys Hoskins‘ 2024 forecast is a big question mark. The move to Milwaukee shouldn’t have a material impact on his performance given park factors that are similar to his former Philly home. When healthy, he’s essentially Walker and Santander as a tier 3 contributor. So, his ultimate health during spring training could push him up or down the board.

This is what Yandy Díaz‘s sizeable forearms had always suggested he was capable of, right?! Unfortunately, I’m not a big fan here as a big chunk of his value is tied to his batting average, which in 2023, was fueled by a career high BABIP. His HR/FB rate has been up and down his whole career, so it’s nearly impossible to predict what each season will bring. Since he has never posted a FB% above 32%, that HR/FB rate is vitally important, as at least one of those two rates needs to remain high to give him a chance at even 20 dingers. With no speed and a Rays team that could chop his playing time during any signs of a slump, I’m not paying for anything close to a repeat.

While it’s hard to envision Josh Naylor repeating that .326 BABIP and batting over .300 again, his maxEV suggests ample room for upside to his low-teen HR/FB rate. A healthy season could yield career best counting stats, though his painfully low runs scored total due to weak baserunning will continue to limit his fantasy potential.

A torn labrum in his right shoulder ended Vinnie Pasquantino‘s season early, which adds significant risk to his 2024 outlook. However, with an impressive strikeout rate for a power hitter and a flyball tendency, the skills are there to become a fantasy force. Dare I say that his skill set reminds me of some future Hall of Famer you may have heard of, the great…Albert Pujols?!

It was a very solid first full season for Triston Casas and an especially valuable one in OBP formats. With nothing standing out as flukey, we could expect more playing time will result in greater counting stats.

After the majority of his fantasy owners likely gave up on him, Spencer Torkelson‘s power exploded beginning in June, as he posted a 19.1% HR/FB rate, driving a .255 ISO from that month forward. Unfortunately, a heavy flyball tendency, too many pop-ups, and not enough line drives resulted in a low BABIP, and his short minor league history doesn’t give us much hope for any better. The low batting average is what separates him from a lot of seemingly similar names. Of course, it’s not hard to imagine that full season HR/FB rate jumping and also boosting his batting average, suddenly leaving us with nearly an Alonso clone.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand enjoyed a decent half season debut, but with the team’s signing of Candelario, his playing time is now up in the air. He gets lumped here given his big-time power potential, as it’s prudent to draft him instead of a fungible replacement level guy with limited upside. Update: Noelvi Marte’s suspension significantly alleviates infield logjam and nearly gaurantees an everyday starting job.

With his microscopic strikeout rate, skyhigh LD%, and few popups, Luis Arraez is perhaps the lockiest lock for an elite batting average. But it comes at a cost, as he contributes little in the counting stats, constantly making his fantasy owners feel like they need an upgrade. Personally, I’m not a fan of investing in hitters that earn a vast majority of their fantasy value from batting average, even if their projected stats value him a bit higher than here. Any sort of BABIP drop is going to wipe out his appeal.

It’s been three seasons so far and Andrew Vaughn hasn’t made much progress with the bat. There’s nothing here in the stat trends that suggest a breakout is imminent, so ya just gotta have blind faith that the former top prospect might suddenly figure it all out at age 26.

Jake Burger took full advantage of his sudden every day lineup slot with the White Sox, before being shuttled off to the Marlins at the trade deadline. He posted an elite maxEV and Barrel%, driving a career best HR/FB rate. The power probably isn’t going to play as well in Miami and his HR/FB rate was already cut in half with his new team. He also swings and misses quite frequently and doesn’t walk enough to offset all those strikeouts. Hopefully the regression isn’t severe enough to lose him significant playing time.

Spencer Steer enjoyed a nice little fantasy breakout during his first full season in 2023, contributing across the board. However, he overperformed his xwOBA rather meaningfully, and a slipup in offensive output could lose him significant playing time, given the Reds’ overabundence of talent. While he played all over the diamond last season, he posted a negative UZR/150 at every spot, so he’ll need to keep hitting to maintain an everyday lineup spot. More confidence in his playing time would push him up a tier. Update: Noelvi Marte’s suspension significantly alleviates Reds’ talent logjam as the team is now down to just one reserve outfielder who figures to battle for significant playing time, resulting in more job security for Steer.

After a mini breakout in 2022, Nathaniel Lowe took a step back this past season, almost replicating his 2021 performance. His HR/FB rate slipped to a career low, as he suddenly lost a chunk of his barrels. I expect a rebound there, but the home run upside is limited given the low FB%. Update: Lowe suffered an oblique strain which could cost him the first week or two of the season.

Injuries have torpedoed Kris Bryant‘s time with the Rockies and he was massively disappointing with the bat when he wasn’t on the IL this past season. There’s not a whole lot to point to that suggests a big rebound, so we have to just remember his peak years, pair it with playing half his games at one of the league’s best hitter’s parks, and cross our fingers. For what promises to be a heavily discounted price tag, he’ll likely be a good speculative fantasy buy.

Was Josh Bell‘s 20%+ HR/FB rates posted from 2019-2021 his peak or does he make another run at that level again? It’ll be more difficult to get back there now playing half his games at a bottom 10 home run park. With no speed to offset the ho-hum counting stats for a first baseman, he’s the type of guy you get stuck with at the end because you decided to pay for top middle infielders instead.

After a breakout 2023, are you surprised to see Isaac Paredes ranked this low? Perhaps his significant xwOBA overperformance, likely driven by a HR/FB rate that finished far higher than you’d expect given his underwhelming maxEV and Barrel%, is enough to remove such a reaction. The major concern here is that given the Rays’ love of mixing and matching, regression here, especially of the power kind, could result in a huge loss of playing time.

Slow and steady wins the race is almost certainly what Alec Bohm fans are telling themselves watching his offensive progress. Still to hit 27 years old this year, it’s possible he has a power spike in him, but that Barrel% needs some juice. He could also use a higher FB%, and then it would be fair to dream of a 30-homer season.

The changes at Oriole Park in 2022 had a massively negative effect on Ryan Mountcastle‘s power, as his home HR/FB rate slid from 23.3% to just 13.6% and ISO from .261 to .174 from 2020-2021 to 2022-2023. Now his overall HR/FB rate looks lower than you would expect given his maxEV and Barrel% combination, but unfortunately there’s nothing he could do about his home park’s new dimensions. With Ryan O’Hearn still in the mix at first, his playing time outlook might remain cloudy for some time.

It’s highly unlikely that you would start Salvador Perez at first base instead of catcher, but if you did, this ranking is based solely on his value at this position. Now two years removed from his mid-20% HR/FB rates in 2020 and 2021, it looks more and more like a peak that won’t be repeated. Still, he should be a bit better on the home run front coming off his lowest HR/FB rate since 2016

Brandon Drury not only maintained his power spike from 2022, but actually increased both his HR/FB rate and ISO marks further. After so many years of failing to reach a double digit Barrel%, I’m still not totally confident this is his new level. With no speed, he’ll need to keep the power going to keep fantasy owners interested.

Where’d Ty France‘s power go?! Both his maxEV and Barrel% remained stable (actually the former was a career best), but his HR/FB rate was nearly cut in half. Figure a rebound here with a decent batting average, but with no speed, he still toes the line between startable and replacement level.

In 2022, José Abreu‘s power collapsed, but a career best strikeout rate and inflated BABIP kept his wOBA in line with his career average. This past season, his power failed to rebound, but this time, his BABIP fell to a career worst, while his strikeout rate reverted right back to where it had been. I think there’s decent rebound potential for his power and hitting in the middle of a strong lineup will help his runs scored and RBI totals. Even during his age 37 season, he might make for a cheap rebound speculation, even if that rebound still falls well short of his peak.

I’m not sure why the Reds felt the need to sign Jeimer Candelario to play first base when they already had a top prospect ready to fill the role. That said, it’s quite the boost going to a park that was most home run friendly last season. Unfortunately, the park boost might be offset by natural regression, as he overperformed his xwOBA and significantly overperformed his xSLG. Furthermore, after swiping just seven bases over his entire career previously, can we now count on a high single digit total, or was that mostly a fluke?

From surprise half season breakout to 2023 disappointment, Joey Meneses BABIP and HR/FB both collapsed during his first full season at age 31. Perhaps it was a knee injury that he apparently played through all season, or just regression for a hitter who spent 11 seasons in the minors before his debut last year. If the injury is partly to blame, expect better this year, but 2022 ain’t happening again.

Anthony Rizzo‘s stat trends are scary, but his RBI potential gets a boost with the addition of Juan Soto to the lineup slotting ahead of him. He batted third or fourth all season despite the disappointing offense, so I’m still happy to roster a hitter locked into the middle of the order on a good offense.

Like Perez above, you’re probably going to be starting Yainer Diaz at catcher. However, his offense might be good enough that you shouldn’t be embarrassed if you were forced to play him at first base, given his power and batting average expectations. The playing time just won’t be as plentiful as the majority of your alternatives.

Despite underwhelming maxEV and Barrel% marks, Alex Kirilloff still managed a career best HR/FB rate over half a season’s worth of ABs. Unfortunately, he continues to struggle to hit fly balls at even a league average clip, limiting his home run potential. He’ll likely be on the strong side of a platoon, and is coming off shoulder surgery, both of which adds risk.

After signing with the Blue Jays, Justin Turner makes his triumphant arrival to the tiers. He’s in a slightly better spot for home runs, but worse for BABIP. That said, his worst Barrel% since 2015, lowest walk rate since 2016, and highest strikeout rate since 2014 are concerning for a hitter entering his age 39 season.

Jake Cronenworth looks to rebound off a disappointing fantasy season, hoping to contribute a touch of both power and speed. He’s slated to hit in a pretty good spot as the second hitter in the Padres lineup, and isn’t too old to feel like a return to his 2021 level is still a possibility. Still, he lacks the excitement of some of the sexier, and younger names.

LaMonte Wade Jr.’s platoon status eats into his value, but he’s got some power and excellent plate patience, which should keep him in the middle of the Giants’ batting order. His maxEV jumped last year and suggests upside past a low double digit HR/FB rate.

After being selected 11th overall during the 2023 draft, Nolan Schanuel shot through the minors, making his MLB debut with the Angels just over a month later. Over 132 PAs, he showed his “pure hitter” chops, walking more often than striking out, but showing almost zero power. Whether and when even league average power materializes will determine his fantasy potential. For now, he’s just a dart throw with some potential that’s a bit more exciting than the other names you might be debating between at his likely price.