The Good and The Bad of ’09: Baltimore
Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Baltimore Orioles club that finished fifth overall in the American League East division with a record of 64-98. As a team, the Orioles posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -9.93, third worst in the Majors.
The Good: Adam Jones, CF
The Baltimore organization has one of the best young outfields in all of baseball with the emergence of Jones and Nolan Reimold in 2009. Further growth from Felix Pie could make things even more interesting as the group joins Nick Markakis. Jones’ WAR actually dropped in ’09 from 2.2 to 1.9 but that was due to a regression in the field. Offensively, with better patience at the plate, Jones’ line improved to .277/.335/.457 with an ISO of .180. He should see even more doubles and homers as he increases his fly-ball rate from 28.1%. What this means for 2010 is that Jones has a very good chance of becoming a 20 HR/15 SB player who will also post a respectable batting average and score some runs.
The Bad: The Pitching Staff
It’s not really fair to single out any one pitcher; most of the hurlers on the staff were disappointing. Collectively, Baltimore pitchers allowed the most hits in the American League, while posting the worst FIP and highest home-run rate in the Majors. Young pitchers Chris Tillman (2.08 HR/9) and David Hernandez (2.40) struggled mightily with the long ball. They also posted FIPs above 6.00. Veteran hurler Jeremy Guthrie posted a homer rate of 1.54 HR/9. Former closer Chris Ray made his return from Tommy John surgery but he posted a walk rate of 4.78 BB/9 and posted a 2.01 WHIP. Japanese import Koji Uehara looked good early but then he got hurt (torn flexor tendon). He’ll enter 2010 at the age of 35.
The good news is that Tillman and Hernandez both experienced common growing pains for young pitchers. Tillman, in particular, looks like a future stud; he just needs better command. Brian Matusz is another promising hurler who made eight starts and will enter 2010 as an early favorite for Rookie of the Year in the American League (Tillman’s eligibility has expired). Both should be keeper-league targets. Neither Ray nor Uehara enter ’10 as fantasy favorites, although Uehara has some value if he’s healthy.
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There is some talk that Uehara may close. The rotation will likely be Guthrie, Bergeson, Matusz, Tillman, and Veteran import. Johnson looked bad as a closer and Koji closed in Japan, so it is a logical fit. So, he would have value as a closer on a competitive team.
I think Uehara will close by default. Johnson, as you said, played his way out of the job last season. We don’t really have anyone else with significant experience in high leverage situations *and* who pitched well last year (which rules out Chris Ray). There’s also an outside chance we bring back Danys Baez or sign a reliever from the market – but we have so many random bullpen pieces lying around (and it’s not like Baez has upside), I doubt that happens.
Jones confuses me. Last year he was a plus defender; this year he was a good hitter. It would be nice if he could combine the two (unless UZR is just being misleading about his fielding this season, which is entirely possible). If he could put up a season with an 800 OPS and, say, +5 UZR/150, that’s like 3-4 WAR.
How is it that Tillman’s rookie eligibility is expired while Matusz’s is not? I remember them being called up at the same time for consecutive first starts. I guess Tillman ended up pitching a few more innings, and that put him over the threshold?
The rookie cutoff is 50 IP. Tillman reached it, but Matusz was shut down a start away from reaching it.