Kendrys Morales: Surprisingly Valuable

Once upon a time (aka 2009), Kendrys Morales was a breakout first base prospect at the age of 26. He popped 34 home runs, drove in 108 runs, and hit for a .306 average in 611 plate appearances. He was on pace to do much the same in 2010 until a home run celebration prematurely ended his season. And the next one.

Since then, Morales has hovered around the periphery of fantasy usefulness. Now 32, he’s on the wrong side of the aging curve. He was useful in 2012 and 2013, but his 2014 campaign was abysmal.

His struggles last year can be linked to the qualifying offer. If there was ever a guy who should have taken the QO, it was Morales. He was coming off a 1.3 WAR season following a 1.5 WAR season. In the past, his offense first profile could have netted him a nice multi-year offer. Front offices are smarter now. As it stood, he was positioned to take home maybe two-years and $26 million without the QO attached. Teams don’t give up early draft picks for below average first basemen.

However, following a dismal negative 1.8 WAR in 2014, the Royals were still comfortable enough to guarantee $17 million over two seasons. Morales was brought in to replace designated hitter Billy Butler (who strangely cost even more on the free agent market). Morales massively outperformed Butler.

According to our rankings, Morales was worth $17. Per Fantasy Pros, he was undrafted in virtually all 12-team leagues. He posted above average numbers in four categories including 81 runs, 106 RBI, 22 home runs, and a .290 average. Sure, he didn’t steal any bases, but this is still a hell of a find for free.

The switch-hitter has fairly substantial platoon splits. He’s much better from the left side of the plate particularly in the power department. He hit 18 of 22 home runs against righties this season, and his career numbers feature similar rates. Against southpaws, he’s a merely average hitter with a .113 ISO (.254 versus righties). Owners in shallow leagues should keep this in mind. A platoon with a guy like Adam Lind would make sense.

While Morales had a good year, history has taught us to tread carefully with him. He benefited greatly from a tenacious Royals offense. The club will probably lose Ben Zobrist and Alex Gordon over the offseason, although I think there’s at least a chance they’ll re-sign Gordon. However, key contributors Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, and Eric Hosmer will remain with the club. That should give Morales a shot at another 100 RBI season.

My biggest concern is his cavernous home park and improving competition in the AL Central. Steamer thinks he’ll hit 20 home runs in 2016, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he dropped down to around 15 bombs. After all, he hit exactly three home runs in each of the first five months of the season. Only a seven homer September pulled him over the 20 home run threshold.

The good news is that Morales is generally a reliable, luck-neutral hitter. In 2014, his .244 BABIP was an outlier. Otherwise, the 296 BABIP he posted in 2010 was the lowest of his career. He generally ranges between a .309 and .329 BABIP. So long as he’s healthy, I think we can expect a solid batting average.

Combined with his RBI opportunities, Morales promises to offer at least two above average categories. I would expect some regression across the board with the 2015 version of Carlos Santana representing a floor.

Steamer calls with a 75/20/82/0/.270 fantasy line. It smells like a fantastic projection to me. A healthy Morales could easily outperform those numbers but injury/decline risk balance the equation. I would target him for roughly $6 to $9 in a standard 12-team auction.