The Diamondbacks Closer Dilemma

Take a peek at the Diamondbacks reliever depth chart. Archie Bradley sits atop the pecking order. We project 22 saves. Free agent acquisition Brad Boxberger is penciled in for seven saves. Yoshihisa Hirano doesn’t have a player page yet and therefore is not listed. He’s definitely in the battle. The Diamondbacks will have more than 29 saves. Perhaps consider the rest as belonging to Hirano.

By NFBC ADP, fantasy owners believe Bradley will close. His 186 ADP is sandwiched directly between undisputed closers Brandon Morrow (185 ADP) and Blake Treinen (186 ADP). At this price, Morrow is the heist equivalent of successfully robbing Fort Knox, but that’s a subject for another day. Boxberger has a 321 ADP. Hirano is floating at a 395 ADP.

In The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (#TGFBI aka Justin Mason’s baby), Bradley has a 177 ADP. Boxberger has only been picked in two of 13 leagues (295 ADP). Hirano has found love in three leagues (298 ADP). A lot of people play NFBC. Mason’s baby is comprised of 195 self-styled fantasy baseball experts. There seems to be a resounding consensus that Bradley will close.

I wonder if he’s even the front runner to win the job. There are three problems with Archie Bradley the Closer in 2018.

1. He has actual, legitimate competition for the job

It’s not a stretch to suggest that Boxberger and Hirano may be roughly equivalent talents. Due to injuries, Boxberger is a confusing player to evaluate. Hirano is a bit of an unknown quantity.

Recall, the Diamondbacks didn’t punt Fernando Rodney from the role when he looked lost in early April. Maybe they would have if the same slump occurred in July, after Bradley had developed more of a track record. Maybe they know to be patient with good-not-great closers. And, maybe they really don’t want to pay Bradley that bonus arbitration money. Who knows.

Boxberger had a mixed 2017 performance. On the surface, a 3.38 ERA (3.43 FIP, 3.36 xFIP), 12.27 K/9, and 3.38 BB/9 looks passable for a closer. Bradley, by comparison, posted a superior 1.73 ERA (2.61 FIP, 3.21 xFIP), 9.74 K/9, and 2.59 K/9. Boxberger suffered from a career worst hard contact rate. That can be read as a warning or a small sample fluke. He has a high-whiff fastball that induces weak contact. His changeup is fine. He’s never really figured out a breaking ball. His slider was hammered. It’s not a perfect closer profile, but Boxberger can work in a pinch.

For Hirano, all we really have to go off are scouting reports. He throws three pitches, a 91 mph fastball, a devastating-looking splitter, and a loopy slider with some potential. Here’s a video showing all three pitches. Check out that splitter at the 48 second mark. Again at 1:09. I worry a bit about his fastball in the majors. It might work, it might not. Koji Uehara was a very good closer with a comparable splitter and less fastball.

This profile could work in the ninth inning. It did in Japan. In fact, I’m betting on Hirano as the current front runner for the job. I’m laying 50/50 odds he’s named the Opening Day closer. I suspect Boxberger is already at or below a 10 percent chance due to some early-spring soreness. His recent injury history is extensive.

2. The Diamondbacks need starting pitchers

Bradley was used as a multi-inning reliever last year. After trading Anthony Banda, the only spot starters on the roster are Braden Shipley and uh… Jorge de la Rosa? Maybe the frozen corpse of Kris Medlen thaws? Shelby Miller might have a chance to return in August or September. Arizona has a superb five-man rotation. Once somebody hits the disabled list, well, things gonna fall apart.

By keeping Bradley in a multi-inning role, he’ll be better prepared to make spot starts as needed. They can also continue to leverage him in the biggest spots. Even if the rotation is miraculously injury-free this year, Patrick Corbin is set to walk in free agency. Bradley is the only obvious internal fit to fill his spot. It’s not like they have near-majors pitching prospects. Once a pitcher slides into the closer role, he rarely successfully transitions back to starting.

There’s an easy fix for this problem. Sign somebody like Trevor Cahill. Boom. Done. There’s a bigger issue…

3. He may not be very good

This ties back to the first sentence of #1. If Boxberger and Hirano are comparable to Bradley, it’s because his 2017 campaign reads as just a tad fluky-lucky. Recall, his 3.21 xFIP was basically on par with Boxberger’s. xFIP, it turns out, predicts future ERA pretty well.

As a reliever, he wisely trimmed his repertoire to fastball and curve ball. The fastball is a good pitch. It played up to 96 mph out of the bullpen after sitting around 92 mph as a starter. The heater induced a barely above average whiff rate for a fastball – a 10.81 percent swinging strike rate. Hitters had some trouble squaring up the offering – .238 average, .362 slug.

The curve needs to take a step forward. He induced a bad 9.93 percent swinging strike rate with the bendy ball. Compare that to Lance McCullers. His curve had a 18.90 percent swinging strike rate. Bradley’s curve did have good fortune on balls in play – .188 average, .275 slug, .229 BABIP. It could continue to induce soft contact.

The good news is that the curve was better in 2016 when he was a starter. The bad news is that his change, sinker, and cutter don’t appear to be viable pitches. Without a McCullers quality curve, I don’t know how he could ever start. Sounds like a point in favor of using him as a closer, right? Get it over with already.

I did call this a dilemma. Who do you expect to close for the Diamondbacks?

Who will be the Diamondbacks Opening Day closer?

— Brad Johnson (@BaseballATeam) March 8, 2018