Updated Catcher Tiers: July 2012
It’s time again to re-visit the catcher tiers as the calendar flips to July. I’ve taken both current and expected performance into account, some thoughts and expectations of my own and a few comments from you, my very own Peanut Gallery. Things are looking a little different than they did back in June, so without further ado…
| U.S. Prime |
| Buster Posey |
He’s in a class by himself right now. Match him up with any other backstop in the game today and you’d be a fool to not say you’d rather have Posey on your fantasy team. He may not have the highest totals right now, but he’s been the total package. Great numbers in the counting stats, his average hovers around the .300 range, his OBP lingers above .360, and both his walk and strikeout rates are better than league average. There’s nothing about his numbers that says he won’t duplicate his first half totals over the next three months. Oh yeah, and he’s done it all after missing almost a full year in 2011 due to one of the more horrific leg injuries we’ve seen in a while. Think your guy is better? Think again.
| U.S. Choice |
| Mike Napoli |
| Joe Mauer |
| Matt Wieters |
| Miguel Montero |
| Yadier Molina |
| Carlos Ruiz |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia |
It was just a matter of time before this group started getting a little crowded. If I’m looking to make a deal to improve my catcher spot, I’m probably looking in this tier. Why not the one above? Can’t afford the price tag. But in this group, as great as all of them are playing right now or as I expect them to play over the next three months, each guy has a flaw or two that helps you negotiate that asking price a little more into your favor. Whether it’s the batting average for Salty, Napoli or Wieters or the injury history of Montero or Mauer’s lack of power or the age concerns of Ruiz and Yaddy, each guy falls just a little bit short of top-tier material. Happy to own any of them….still rather have Posey.
| U.S. Select |
| A.J. Pierzynski |
| Carlos Santana |
| Jesus Montero |
| Brian McCann |
Here’s where some of the tough decisions needed to be made. As great of a year as Pierzynski is having, given his age and annual decline over the last few years, he has a strong chance of pulling a Berkman here and, more or less, disappearing in the second half. His bounce-back has been outstanding, but it’s a tough pace for him to keep up. McCann’s drop-off is a little troubling and with the exception of a mini-surge in May, he looks like a shell of the player we are used to seeing. I still see improvement on the horizon for Montero, but it hasn’t taken flight as quickly as I thought/hoped it would. And Santana’s just driving everyone nuts right now. Between the rash of injuries and overall disappointment at the plate, I don’t care where his OBP is. He’s been a disappointment all around. Maybe he does in the second half what he did last season, maybe he doesn’t. But he’s going to have to prove his worth before he gets ranked any higher.
| U.S. Standard |
| Wilin Rosario |
| J.P. Arencibia |
| Ryan Doumit |
| Alex Avila |
| A.J. Ellis |
| Salvador Perez |
This tier stays the same for the most part but gets the addition of both Rosario and Perez, two catchers definitely on the rise. Given Perez’ minor league totals, this tier might be his ceiling unless he pulls a Yaddy (pulls a Yaddy? Am I even allowed to say that?) and beefs up the power. But Rosario could easily find himself in the tier above if he continues to pull that average up and learns how to hit better against right-handed pitching. Ellis does not get the bump down with a weak month of June, but could if we don’t see improvements in July. There were plenty of questions as to whether or not he was playing over his head and we should get our answer soon enough.
| U.S. Commerical |
| Geovany Soto |
| Jesus Flores |
| Derek Norris |
| Jonathan Lucroy |
Not a whole heck of a lot to see here. There’s hope that Soto turns things around and Norris supposedly steals the job from Kurt Suzuki, but for how long? Flores has been okay in his new full-time role and Lucroy should return to a full-time role once he’s healthy. Adequate backstops in a deep, two-catcher league.
| U.S. Utility |
| Josh Thole |
| John Buck |
| Russell Martin |
| Kurt Suzuki |
| Devin Mesoraco |
| Chris Iannetta |
| Ramon Hernandez |
Now it’s gettin’ ugly. Thole has no power, Buck is steadily dropping out of sight, Martin has been atrocious, and Suzuki may have lost his job. You’ve got Dusty hating on Mesoraco and Mesoraco not doing much to change Dusty’s mind, Iannetta is likely behind Lucroy on the return schedule and Hernandez is likely to be out of a job upon his return. Did we miss anyone?
| U.S. Cutter |
| Ryan Hanigan |
| Miguel Olivo |
| Rod Barajas |
| Jason Castro |
There’s a piece of me that wishes I ranked Barajas in the tier above, but that piece of me isn’t yelling in my ear loud enough. Not sure if there’s really anything to say about the rest.
| U.S. Canner |
| Yorvit Torrealba |
| John Jaso |
| Nick Hundley |
| Wilson Ramos |
So much for that Hundley prediction…
Where would you put Wil Myers when he’s called up? (He still has catcher eligibility in yahoo formats)
If/when the Royals bring up Myers, then I would probably start him off in The U.S. Standard and see where he finishes up from there. Great power potential, good plate discipline. It’s just going to be a matter of whether the Royals trade Frenchy or not. Lorenzo Cain’s return has been slow, but I don;t think the Royals want Myers patrolling center field.
I doubt Myers gets significant playing time this year. The Royals aren’t anywhere near contention, so there’s no hurry. I’m sure he’ll get a first look in the Majors before the end of the year, and he’ll stick around for as long as he performs (provided he gets a chance to do so and isn’t dicked around like the Giants did to Belt), but my guess is it’ll probably be mid August at the earliest before that happens. The less playing time he gets now, the longer they can hold on to him later.
He’s got as good a chance as any prospect to perform when he comes up, and if you’re just looking at his ability and what he has left to prove in the Minors, then he could come up any time, but there’s more to it than that. He’ll get a cup of coffee for sure, but that’s about it.
The Royals are only 5.5 back in the central last time I checked. (Yes that is an uphill battle i’m aware.) And the super 2 deadline already passed so it doesn’t matter whether they start his clock now or not. Myers has proven himself to be ready, and should be worth a win more over having Frenchy patrolling RF in KC.
Yeah, they’re only 5.5 back in AL central, which sounds reasonable, but the AL Central is the weakest division in baseball (Cleveland at #2 is barely over .500, and the White Sox have the worst record of any division leader in the Majors), and it doesn’t make sense to spend this year for what could only be a division title. Save it and spend when your aspirations can rise a little higher.
As for Myers’ clock, I’ll admit I’ve only started to learn about the ins and outs of arbitration, free agency, etc, but my understanding of Anthony Rizzo’s situation this year is that his service time last year had an impact on when he could be brought up this year to maintain an extra year before arbitration.
Obvious question: where does Yasmani rank?
Yeah, my bad. Can;t believe I didn’t place him. Big fan of Grandal, hate his home ballpark. Probably right between Soto and Perez at this point with strong hope and belief that he’ll work his way up a tier.
So what’s separating Napoli and Rosario right now in your rankings? The ‘prove’ it factor? Because otherwise, Rosario’s wRC+ is only 1 bellow Napoli, their R’s and RBI totals are swapped, Rosario has a couple more dongers, a handful of SB, and a higher AVG, and Rosario has .049 more OPS than Napoli (thanks to that wicked SLG%).
Right now I’d rather have Rosario, but would be more than happy with Napoli (and lucky for me have both on my team). Seems to me like Rosario could end up looking like Napoli Jr with all that power, and if he ever learns to walk? Scary stuff.
Napoli appears to be way too high for an udpated ranking. His Babip and HR/FB% are both above career norms, so he’s not just suffering from luck related shenanigans.
Grandal should be listed somewhere.
Yadier Molina turns 30 on July 13 – I have zero “age concerns” with him.
Agreed on Grandal, I think he’s below Rosario’s tier due to no sample size yet but on par with Soto’s tier because his ceiling is so much higher than the rest of that tier and below.
I guess when I say age I’m more referring to the length of time he’s been playing. More or less, eight full seasons behind the plate right now is a decent amount of time given shelf life of a lot of players these days, especially catchers. I should have been more specific here.
I guess you should say its the mileage, not the years for Yadi.
Barajas deserves to be in at least two tiers above but where would you rank his heir apparent in Michael McKenry?
No higher than U.S. Commercial for McKenry
“Pulling a Berkman”? 2nd half 2011: .903 OPS, 2nd half career: .922 OPS
Yes, not as good as his 1st half numbers, but hardly disappearing. (Not to say that I trust AJ P. to not return to his pedestrian norm in the 2nd half.)
And since when is being 30 an age concern for near-future production?
My concern is that his power production drops off significantly. BA stays the same but no significant help in the counting stats. We’re speaking fantasy production here, so I’m going with the basic 5×5 categories when I says “pulling a Berkman”
Howard: I’m here to eat my crow on Mesoraco…not that he isn’t a good player who would move up drastically if given the opportunity, but that, like you predicted, Dusty would not hand over the reigns to him as he should. I still predict, him, Santana, and McCann will move up in these rankings as the year moves on though.
You know I love him too and expect big things from him in the future. I still haven’t activated him off my minors roster in my dynasty league and am just waiting for him to get that playing time before I start the clock on him. It’ll happen soon enough…
Where does Martin Maldonado fit?
For now, I’d leave him in U.S. Commercial and expect him to drop once Lucroy comes back. I just don’t see him getting enough playing time in the second half to be fantasy relevant in most leagues.
I’ll dispute your assertion that “this might be [Perez's] ceiling.” Do you realize he JUST turned 22? In his age 20-21 seasons, across A+ through AAA, he hit .290/.326/.423 w/ 17 HRs. While that isn’t phenomenal, it is certainly very good performance for such a young player in high minor league ball. I don’t see how you can project his ceiling as “standard” at this point, especially with his performance in his first 177 major league ABs across (mostly) last season and this season. .339/.364/.525 with 6 HRs.
Disclosure – desperate Royals fan
Agreed. And a catcher that hits .290 is pretty good to me.
I like Perez a lot and own him in a few leagues. I’m just not sure how his power will actually develop. I see a rock solid average throughout his career but with just modest help in the counting stats. Believe me, given the prices I have him at in two of my keeper leagues, nothing would make me happier than to see him power up.
Disclosure — closet Royals fan
We are in this thing together, then. As a potential positive, he has bulked up 15 pounds since last year, from 230 to 245. While I don’t want to see him gain any more weight – he’s already slow – he is built like a house at 6’3″ 245. The rest of the season should give us some clue as to whether that extra bulk means more long balls, but so far so good. Regardless, he has plenty of time to develop, and I don’t think I’m delusional to think that he could eventually be a 25-30 HR guy. I’d love to see 8-10 more this year.
He’s off to a good start, with three in his first eight games.
I’m all aboard the Norris train. I’m willing to be bet he outplays a few of your “standard” guys ROS, even with some split PT.
In a H2H points league (non-keeper). Do you drop Jesus Montero for Rosario or Grandal? Anyone?
Non-keeper, I might consider dropping Montero if Grandal maintains a decent average. I would not drop Rosario though as I think his power continues and the average climbs a bit more.
Montero on shelf for a bit with concussion. Now you gotta drop him for a Grandal/ Norris, right?
Rank these 3 ROS in H2H points league: J Montero, Grandal, Rosario
see comment just above……
What is McCann’s deal? Is it just BABIP related, or is there something else? His counting stats are basically in line with what he’s done over his career. He’s on pace to score 50 runs, 18 HR, 75 RBI, its just his slash lines are embarrassing. He was a “safe” guy that I got at auction for significantly less than Santana and Napoli. How much longer do you wait? He’s not worth much on the trade market in a redraft league, not with Rosario, Grandal and some of those types hitting well right now.
A lot of these Fantasy articles can’t seem to decide if they care about OB or not. You talk about Posey’s .360+ OB and good walk rate, then apparently ignore Rosario’s abysmal OB. I’ve noticed it in other articles too (although it’s possible that some of what I noticed may have just been from me reading multiple articles in one day).
It’s not that I’m ignoring Rosario’s OBP issues, but for fantasy purposes, so long as he keeps hitting home runs and producing runs, he has, IMO, more value than a guy like Santana right now who may have a decent OBP but offers nothing in the counting stats. Santana stays above him in the tiers based on expected second half performance, but if I had to pick one right now, I’d take Rosario, lousy BA vs RHP and all.
So happy I didn’t touch Napoli, Santana, McCann, etc. I do own Posey in multiple leagues, and have Salty or Perez in others.
Own McCann is a dynasty and it’s seems he’s been having issues the last two years that are mostly mental. Such as feeling he let the team down during the stretch run last year. Now, I have the opportunity in a different league to add him over Cody Ross and use him as trade bait. Not sure if this is a good idea or not though, as the public perception may be changing. Would you cut bait with Ross for a potential trade in McCann if you had a full OF?
I’d love to think that McCann can get it back, but it’s tough to buy in on that hope.
General rule of thumb is that adding a guy off the wire as trade bait isn’t likely to get very much in return, unless you’re willing to wait until they put together a good month of production on the books. If they’re on the wire, that means someone else thought little enough of them to drop them, which means they’re a significant risk, and history or no, few people are willing to trade for that high a risk unless they’re buying really low.
Unfathonable that Napoli is starting the ASG over Mauer!! Just shows the incompetance of the multitudes. There is more to the game than just power. Please change the ASG selection process ASAP and have only people that really know the game make the selections ie players, managers and front office staff.
It’s absurd that Ruiz isn’t in Tier 1.
Last week, I somehow parlayed Ricky Romero and McCann for Posey (the guy has been starting Ruiz all year). Score!
agreed. how does this make sense?
I have Mauer, and just traded McCann away for a nice package, with an eye on grabbing Lucroy. However, someone in my h2h keeper just dropped Miguel Montero. Am I crazy, or was that ridiculous? Because I’m planning on bidding pretty high to get Montero off the wire to replace the absence of McCann. Any thoughts on the matter? Thank you!
I would easily grab Montero over Lucroy, so bid away…
And I can probably get Wieters for Montero. I’d rather have Wieters than both. Any argument?
none whatsoever…
Good. Just checking myself. This is the same guy that fell for my trade: offered him McCann (he’s been bugging me for him), Utley, Capuano, and Hardy for Hanley Ramirez, Michael Young, and Joe Nathan, and he bit fast! Is that not to bad or what? Turns out, he values McCann way over Wieters and likes Soto (who he’s still got) way too much. With three catchers on his roster, he says he’ll probably keep Soto and drop Wieters. So, he’ll trade me Wieters for whomever rather that make me deal with waivers. Am I crazy, or is this almost too good to be true?