This past offseason, I found an xBABIP equation which correlated better than just BABIP when looking at season 1 to season 2 values . By using the the new Inside Edge data and player speed score, I kept the process simple yet accurate. I have tweeted out the results a few times during the season, but it is time for another full updated list.
The Inside Edge data tracks the normal bunts, grounders, fly balls and line drives. In addition to the four groups, they classify the batted ball into weak, medium and hard contract. For the xBABIP equation, I looked at all the line drives and all the hard hit fly balls and grounders. Additionally, speed is a component of getting on base so Bill James’s Speed Score is also added into the calculation.
Here are the xBABIP and BABIP scores as of yesterday. I ranked it by the top xBABIP value.
Thoughts on a few players
Josh Harrison – I am sure people may expect his BABIP and then his AVG to decline, but right now he may be under valued. While he had a .297 AVG in the season’s first half, it has dropped to .211 so far in the second half. With at least 10 games at 2B, 3B and OF, he looks like he may be poor man’s Zobrist. He is a nice bench player in daily lineup leagues and can be plugged in at several positions on other players’ off days.
Didi Gregorius – He has never really been a great hitter. This season he has used some patience and power to almost be a league average hitter (97 RC+). With his xBABIP (.328) being 68 percentage points more than his actual BABIP, he could see his AVG start to creep up.
Matt Holliday – Talk about a sell low candidate. He is already having his worse season since 2005. Looking at his xBABIP (.271) vs BABIP (.304) values, his production could even be worse. Besidesa possible lower AVG, his HR and Flyball distance is at a 6-year low.
2009: 296 ft
2010: 299 ft
2011: 295 ft
2012: 305 ft
2013: 289 ft
2014: 283 ft
You may want to see if someone in your league is looking to buy low on him and move him before his value declines even more.
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