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Eno Sarris Baseball Chat -- 5/23/13
Daily Notes: Kevin Gausman Preparedness Manual
Yankees Buy Minority Stake In New Major League Soccer Team
Poking Some More at the Effects of Receiving
RotoGraphs
Owning Evan Gattis
Stream, Aim, Fire: Friday and Saturday Streaming Options
NotGraphs
Roy Howell Is Oral Tradition
For Your Brief Amusement: Ross Wolf's Changeup
Community Research
The Ten Lowest BABIPs Since 1945
FanGraphs+
A Special Group of Young Talent
Are the Angels Actually Improved?
2013 Pre-Season Projections
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F - 10th
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F - 10th
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AL East
Yankees
28
18
----
Red Sox
28
19
0.5
Orioles
25
21
3.0
Rays
24
22
4.0
Blue Jays
19
27
9.0
AL Central
Indians
26
19
----
Tigers
25
19
0.5
Royals
21
22
4.0
White Sox
21
24
5.0
Twins
18
25
7.0
AL West
Rangers
30
17
----
Athletics
25
23
5.5
Mariners
20
27
10.0
Angels
19
27
10.5
Astros
14
33
16.0
NL East
Braves
28
18
----
Nationals
24
23
4.5
Phillies
23
24
5.5
Mets
17
27
10.0
Marlins
13
34
15.5
NL Central
Cardinals
30
16
----
Reds
29
18
1.5
Pirates
28
18
2.0
Brewers
18
27
11.5
Cubs
18
27
11.5
NL West
Giants
26
21
----
D-backs
26
21
----
Rockies
26
21
----
Padres
21
25
4.5
Dodgers
19
26
6.0
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Javy Guerra
Birthdate:
10/31/1985
Bats/Throws:
R/R
Height/Weight:
6-1/200
Position:
P
Contract:
Add New Contract
4/30/2013:
The Dodgers recalled Guerra from Triple-A Albuquerque on Tuesday, Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times reports.
2/15/2013
-
LA Dodgers Bullpen: Depth Chart Discussions
by
Colin Zarzycki (RotoGraphs)
2
7/22/2012
-
Bullpen Report: July 22, 2012
by
Colin Zarzycki (RotoGraphs)
2
6/4/2012
-
Bullpen Report: June 4th, 2012
by
Benjamin Pasinkoff (RotoGraphs)
7
5/9/2012
-
The Jump-Step and Other Unrepeatable Deliveries
by
Eno Sarris (FanGraphs)
8
4/25/2012
-
Closers Trending Up: Guerra, Johnson, Marshall
by
Ben Duronio (RotoGraphs)
10
Graphs
All Graphs
Season Stats
Splits
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PITCHf/x
Projections
Batting
Pitching
Standard
Advanced
Batted Ball
Win Probability
Pitch Type
Plate Discipline
Fielding
Value
Dashboard
Customize
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
W
L
SV
G
GS
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BABIP
LOB%
GB%
HR/FB
ERA
FIP
xFIP
WAR
2006
Dodgers (R)
0
1
0
3
3
5.2
9.53
4.76
0.00
.400
63.6 %
6.35
2.67
2006
Dodgers (R)
1
3
0
7
7
28.0
7.07
6.43
0.32
.387
72.2 %
4.82
4.66
2007
Dodgers (A+)
6
9
1
27
24
117.2
9.25
6.12
0.76
.372
61.6 %
6.27
4.64
2008
Dodgers (A+)
5
4
2
31
3
66.1
8.55
5.97
0.00
.330
70.7 %
4.07
3.47
2009
Dodgers (A)
3
1
16
28
0
41.0
12.07
3.29
0.22
.244
85.1 %
1.54
2.00
2009
Dodgers (AA)
3
1
0
23
0
28.1
9.21
5.08
0.64
.366
73.0 %
4.13
3.76
2010
Dodgers (R)
0
1
0
2
0
2.0
13.50
0.00
4.50
.250
100.0 %
4.50
8.20
2010
Desert Dogs (R)
0
0
2
8
0
10.0
8.10
5.40
0.00
.345
87.5 %
1.80
3.20
2010
Dodgers (AA)
2
0
5
28
0
27.0
9.00
7.33
0.33
.311
76.8 %
2.33
4.24
2011
Dodgers (AA)
1
0
3
14
0
17.0
7.94
2.65
0.53
.175
94.8 %
1.06
3.08
2011
Dodgers
2
2
21
47
0
46.2
7.33
3.47
0.39
.261
83.3 %
42.9 %
4.1 %
2.31
3.30
4.07
0.3
2012
Dodgers (A+)
0
0
0
2
2
2.0
4.50
0.00
0.00
.143
0.0 %
4.50
2.20
2012
Dodgers (AAA)
0
0
0
3
0
4.1
6.23
2.08
0.00
.412
50.0 %
8.31
2.51
2012
Dodgers
2
3
8
45
0
45.0
7.40
4.60
0.20
.321
82.6 %
48.4 %
2.6 %
2.60
3.34
4.29
0.3
2013
Steamer
2
1
0
30
0
30.0
7.89
4.18
0.81
.301
72.6 %
3.91
4.02
0.0
2013
Bill James
3
2
0
46
0
47.0
7.66
4.21
0.38
.302
3.26
3.35
2013
Oliver
3
3
51.0
7.40
4.40
0.53
.287
73.4 %
3.52
3.73
2013
ZiPS
2
2
51
0
51.0
7.24
4.41
0.71
.300
72.7 %
3.88
4.09
-0.1
2013
Dodgers (AAA)
0
2
0
4
4
15.2
9.19
4.02
1.72
.326
75.8 %
4.02
4.99
2013
Dodgers
0
0
0
6
0
8.0
9.00
5.63
1.13
.370
64.1 %
46.4 %
16.7 %
6.75
4.91
4.36
-0.1
2013
ZiPS (R)
1
1
33
0
34.0
7.37
4.51
0.74
.304
72.4 %
4.02
4.12
-0.2
2013
ZiPS (U)
1
1
39
0
42.0
7.67
4.72
0.82
.325
70.6 %
4.54
4.27
-0.3
2013
Steamer (R)
1
1
0
32
0
22.0
8.08
4.17
0.79
.290
72.6 %
3.85
3.88
0.0
2013
Steamer (U)
1
1
0
38
0
30.0
8.33
4.56
0.88
.314
68.8 %
4.63
4.15
-0.1
Total
- - -
4
5
29
98
0
99.2
7.49
4.15
0.36
.298
80.8 %
45.7 %
4.3 %
2.80
3.45
4.19
0.5
News
7/23
-
Fantasy: The daily grind: 7-23
by
Brad Johnson
6/4
-
Fantasy: The daily grind 6-4
by
Brad Johnson
5/15
-
Fantasy: Save tonight
by
Paul Singman
5/14
-
Washington Nationals 6-2 Over Los Angeles Dodgers: Jordan Zi»
by
Federal Baseball
5/6
-
Dodgers Week 5 review: Hello & goodbye, Hanley Ramirez
by
True Blue LA
5/5
-
Giants 10, Dodgers 9 (10): Guillermo Quiroz joins the catche»
by
True Blue LA
Standard
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
W
L
ERA
G
GS
CG
ShO
SV
HLD
BS
IP
TBF
H
R
ER
HR
BB
IBB
HBP
WP
BK
SO
2006
Dodgers (R)
0
1
6.35
3
3
0
0
0
5.2
29
8
4
4
0
3
0
0
1
0
6
2006
Dodgers (R)
1
3
4.82
7
7
0
0
0
28.0
140
37
18
15
1
20
0
4
6
0
22
2007
Dodgers (A+)
6
9
6.27
27
24
0
0
1
117.2
572
139
98
82
10
80
0
14
16
0
121
2008
Dodgers (A+)
5
4
4.07
31
3
0
0
2
66.1
317
68
34
30
0
44
0
4
5
0
63
2009
Dodgers (A)
3
1
1.54
28
0
0
0
16
41.0
162
23
7
7
1
15
3
1
8
0
55
2009
Dodgers (AA)
3
1
4.13
23
0
0
0
0
28.1
129
32
15
13
2
16
0
0
2
0
29
2010
Dodgers (R)
0
1
4.50
2
0
0
0
0
2.0
9
2
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
3
2010
Desert Dogs (R)
0
0
1.80
8
0
0
0
2
10.0
44
10
2
2
0
6
0
0
0
1
9
2010
Dodgers (AA)
2
0
2.33
28
0
0
0
5
27.0
125
24
12
7
1
22
2
1
5
0
27
2011
Dodgers (AA)
1
0
1.06
14
0
0
0
3
17.0
61
8
2
2
1
5
0
0
2
0
15
2011
Dodgers
2
2
2.31
47
0
0
0
21
0
2
46.2
195
37
12
12
2
18
1
3
2
0
38
2012
Dodgers (A+)
0
0
4.50
2
2
0
0
0
2.0
8
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2012
Dodgers (AAA)
0
0
8.31
3
0
0
0
0
4.1
21
7
4
4
0
1
0
0
0
0
3
2012
Dodgers
2
3
2.60
45
0
0
0
8
4
5
45.0
196
44
13
13
1
23
5
1
1
0
37
2013
Steamer
2
1
3.91
30
0
0
30.0
131
28
14
13
3
14
1
26
2013
Bill James
3
2
3.26
46
0
0
47.0
42
2
22
1
40
2013
Oliver
3
3
3.52
6
51.0
222
46
22
20
3
25
3
2
42
2013
ZiPS
2
2
3.88
51
0
51.0
48
24
22
4
25
3
2
4
0
41
2013
Dodgers (AAA)
0
2
4.02
4
4
0
0
0
15.2
69
17
9
7
3
7
0
0
2
0
16
2013
Dodgers
0
0
6.75
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
8.0
42
11
7
6
1
5
0
1
0
0
8
2013
ZiPS (R)
1
1
4.02
33
0
34.0
33
17
15
3
17
2
28
2013
ZiPS (U)
1
1
4.54
39
0
42.0
44
23
21
4
22
3
36
2013
Steamer (R)
1
1
3.85
32
0
0
22.0
94
20
10
9
2
10
1
19
2013
Steamer (U)
1
1
4.63
38
0
0
30.0
136
31
17
15
3
15
2
27
Total
- - -
4
5
2.80
98
0
0
0
29
4
7
99.2
433
92
32
31
4
46
6
5
3
0
83
Advanced
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
|
Averages
Season
Team
K/9
BB/9
K/BB
HR/9
K%
BB%
AVG
WHIP
BABIP
LOB%
ERA-
FIP-
FIP
2006
Dodgers (R)
9.53
4.76
2.00
0.00
20.7 %
10.3 %
.308
1.94
.400
63.6 %
2.67
2006
Dodgers (R)
7.07
6.43
1.10
0.32
15.7 %
14.3 %
.319
2.04
.387
72.2 %
4.66
2007
Dodgers (A+)
9.25
6.12
1.51
0.76
21.2 %
14.0 %
.291
1.86
.372
61.6 %
4.64
2008
Dodgers (A+)
8.55
5.97
1.43
0.00
19.9 %
13.9 %
.253
1.69
.330
70.7 %
3.47
2009
Dodgers (A)
12.07
3.29
3.67
0.22
34.0 %
9.3 %
.158
0.93
.244
85.1 %
2.00
2009
Dodgers (AA)
9.21
5.08
1.81
0.64
22.5 %
12.4 %
.283
1.69
.366
73.0 %
3.76
2010
Dodgers (R)
13.50
0.00
3.00
4.50
33.3 %
0.0 %
.250
1.00
.250
100.0 %
8.20
2010
Desert Dogs (R)
8.10
5.40
1.50
0.00
20.5 %
13.6 %
.263
1.60
.345
87.5 %
3.20
2010
Dodgers (AA)
9.00
7.33
1.23
0.33
21.6 %
17.6 %
.235
1.70
.311
76.8 %
4.24
2011
Dodgers (AA)
7.94
2.65
3.00
0.53
24.6 %
8.2 %
.143
0.76
.175
94.8 %
3.08
2011
Dodgers
7.33
3.47
2.11
0.39
19.5 %
9.2 %
.213
1.18
.261
83.3 %
64
90
3.30
2011
Average
7.13
3.11
2.30
0.94
18.6 %
8.1 %
.251
1.32
.291
72.5 %
4.12
2012
Dodgers (A+)
4.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
12.5 %
0.0 %
.125
0.50
.143
0.0 %
2.20
2012
Dodgers (AAA)
6.23
2.08
3.00
0.00
14.3 %
4.8 %
.350
1.85
.412
50.0 %
2.51
2012
Dodgers
7.40
4.60
1.61
0.20
18.9 %
11.7 %
.256
1.49
.321
82.6 %
69
90
3.34
2012
Average
7.56
3.05
2.48
1.02
19.8 %
8.0 %
.250
1.31
.293
72.5 %
4.12
2013
Steamer
7.89
4.18
1.89
0.81
.247
1.39
.301
72.6 %
4.02
2013
Bill James
7.66
4.21
1.82
0.38
.241
1.36
.302
3.35
2013
Oliver
7.40
4.40
1.68
0.53
18.9 %
11.3 %
.236
1.39
.287
73.4 %
3.73
2013
ZiPS
7.24
4.41
1.64
0.71
.250
1.43
.300
72.7 %
4.09
2013
Dodgers (AAA)
9.19
4.02
2.29
1.72
23.2 %
10.1 %
.274
1.53
.326
75.8 %
4.99
2013
Dodgers
9.00
5.63
1.60
1.13
19.1 %
11.9 %
.306
2.00
.370
64.1 %
188
134
4.91
2013
Average
7.62
3.10
2.46
1.03
20.0 %
8.1 %
.248
1.30
.291
73.1 %
4.13
2013
ZiPS (R)
7.37
4.51
1.63
0.74
.253
1.46
.304
72.4 %
4.12
2013
ZiPS (U)
7.67
4.72
1.63
0.82
.269
1.56
.325
70.6 %
4.27
2013
Steamer (R)
8.08
4.17
1.94
0.79
.245
1.38
.290
72.6 %
3.88
2013
Steamer (U)
8.33
4.56
1.83
0.88
.269
1.55
.314
68.8 %
4.15
Total
- - -
7.49
4.15
1.80
0.36
19.2 %
10.6 %
.241
1.38
.298
80.8 %
76
93
3.45
Batted Ball
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
GB/FB
LD%
GB%
FB%
IFFB%
HR/FB
IFH%
BUH%
tERA
SIERA
xFIP-
xFIP
2011
Dodgers
1.16
20.3 %
42.9 %
36.8 %
10.2 %
4.1 %
12.3 %
0.0 %
3.53
3.69
106
4.07
2012
Dodgers
1.63
21.9 %
48.4 %
29.7 %
2.6 %
2.6 %
4.8 %
0.0 %
3.80
4.16
110
4.29
2013
Dodgers
2.17
32.1 %
46.4 %
21.4 %
0.0 %
16.7 %
30.8 %
0.0 %
6.39
4.07
114
4.36
Total
- - -
1.42
22.1 %
45.7 %
32.2 %
6.5 %
4.3 %
10.6 %
0.0 %
3.90
3.95
108
4.19
More Batted Ball
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
GB
FB
LD
IFFB
IFH
BU
BUH
RS
Balls
Strikes
Pitches
2011
Dodgers
57
49
27
5
7
3
0
12
321
494
815
2012
Dodgers
62
38
28
1
3
7
0
15
296
453
749
2013
Dodgers
13
6
9
0
4
0
0
1
65
111
176
Total
- - -
132
93
64
6
14
10
0
28
682
1058
1740
Win Probability
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
WPA
-WPA
+WPA
RE24
REW
pLI
inLI
gmLI
exLI
Pulls
WPA/LI
Clutch
SD
MD
2011
Dodgers
1.24
-3.71
4.95
7.38
0.94
1.37
1.25
1.35
1.14
9
0.37
0.53
20
4
2012
Dodgers
-2.20
-6.48
4.28
0.46
0.08
1.62
1.17
1.43
0.99
28
0.08
-1.44
11
10
2013
Dodgers
-0.40
-0.54
0.14
-4.45
-0.54
0.40
0.40
0.30
2.00
2
-0.31
-0.68
0
1
Total
- - -
-1.36
-10.73
9.37
3.38
0.48
1.39
1.14
1.33
1.07
39
0.14
-1.11
31
15
Pitch Type
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
FB%
SL%
CT%
CB%
CH%
SF%
KN%
XX%
2011
Dodgers
61.5% (94.0)
30.7% (88.7)
5.3% (77.6)
2.5% (85.1)
0.5%
2012
Dodgers
65.0% (93.5)
21.6% (88.2)
10.9% (79.1)
2.5% (84.6)
2.3%
2013
Dodgers
69.9% (92.5)
23.3% (86.8)
4.0% (77.1)
2.8% (84.6)
Total
- - -
63.9% (93.6)
26.1% (88.3)
7.6% (78.5)
2.5% (84.8)
1.2%
PITCHf/x Pitch Type
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
FA%
FT%
FC%
FS%
FO%
SI%
SL%
CU%
KC%
EP%
CH%
SC%
KN%
UN%
2011
Dodgers
56.3 %
5.0 %
31.5 %
4.5 %
2.1 %
2012
Dodgers
59.4 %
4.7 %
23.3 %
8.2 %
2.1 %
2013
Dodgers
69.9 %
24.4 %
3.4 %
2.3 %
Total
- - -
59.0 %
4.4 %
27.3 %
6.0 %
2.1 %
PITCHf/x Pitch Velocity
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
vFA
vFT
vFC
vFS
vFO
vSI
vSL
vCU
vKC
vEP
vCH
vSC
vKN
2011
Dodgers
94.0
93.1
88.4
77.3
85.2
2012
Dodgers
93.4
93.3
87.5
78.1
84.4
2013
Dodgers
92.5
86.5
76.5
83.8
Total
- - -
93.6
93.2
87.9
77.7
84.7
Pitch Values
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
wFB
wSL
wCT
wCB
wCH
wSF
wKN
wFB/C
wSL/C
wCT/C
wCB/C
wCH/C
wSF/C
wKN/C
2011
Dodgers
4.9
1.2
-0.1
-0.3
0.97
0.47
-0.32
-1.60
2012
Dodgers
5.7
-0.3
-0.9
0.3
1.21
-0.18
-1.09
1.79
2013
Dodgers
1.6
-2.1
-1.8
0.0
1.33
-5.14
-25.50
-0.18
Total
- - -
12.2
-1.2
-2.8
0.0
1.11
-0.27
-2.15
-0.01
PITCHf/x Pitch Values
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
wFA
wFT
wFC
wFS
wFO
wSI
wSL
wCU
wKC
wEP
wCH
wSC
wKN
2011
Dodgers
3.1
1.7
1.2
-0.1
-0.2
2012
Dodgers
5.0
0.9
-0.4
-0.4
0.5
2013
Dodgers
1.9
-2.0
-1.7
0.0
Total
- - -
10.0
2.6
-1.2
-2.3
0.4
PITCHf/x Pitch Values / 100
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
wFA/C
wFT/C
wFC/C
wFS/C
wFO/C
wSI/C
wSL/C
wCU/C
wKC/C
wEP/C
wCH/C
wSC/C
wKN/C
2011
Dodgers
0.68
4.11
0.46
-0.31
-0.90
2012
Dodgers
1.13
2.71
-0.25
-0.73
3.23
2013
Dodgers
1.55
-4.56
-28.89
-0.23
Total
- - -
0.98
3.47
-0.25
-2.20
0.96
Plate Discipline
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
|
Averages
Season
Team
O-Swing%
Z-Swing%
Swing%
O-Contact%
Z-Contact%
Contact%
Zone%
F-Strike%
SwStr%
2011
Dodgers
30.0 %
65.9 %
46.2 %
71.3 %
85.8 %
80.6 %
45.0 %
47.2 %
8.6 %
2011
Average
30.6 %
65.0 %
46.2 %
68.1 %
87.9 %
80.7 %
45.3 %
59.4 %
8.6 %
2012
Dodgers
26.7 %
66.6 %
46.0 %
66.7 %
86.6 %
80.6 %
48.3 %
51.0 %
8.5 %
2012
Average
30.8 %
64.7 %
46.0 %
66.8 %
87.2 %
79.7 %
44.9 %
59.8 %
9.1 %
2013
Dodgers
34.1 %
76.5 %
54.4 %
63.3 %
79.0 %
73.9 %
47.9 %
50.0 %
13.6 %
2013
Average
29.6 %
64.9 %
45.8 %
66.2 %
86.6 %
79.4 %
45.9 %
60.2 %
9.2 %
Total
- - -
29.0 %
67.3 %
46.9 %
68.6 %
85.3 %
79.8 %
46.7 %
49.2 %
9.1 %
PITCHf/x Plate Discipline
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
|
Averages
Season
Team
O-Swing%
Z-Swing%
Swing%
O-Contact%
Z-Contact%
Contact%
Zone%
Pace
2011
Dodgers
27.4 %
63.3 %
44.5 %
67.2 %
86.9 %
80.6 %
47.7 %
23.5
2011
Average
28.9 %
62.1 %
45.6 %
64.7 %
88.0 %
80.6 %
50.1 %
21.6
2012
Dodgers
25.6 %
63.3 %
45.2 %
65.6 %
86.3 %
80.6 %
51.9 %
23.7
2012
Average
29.3 %
62.2 %
45.6 %
63.6 %
87.3 %
79.6 %
49.5 %
22.1
2013
Dodgers
26.7 %
76.7 %
52.3 %
60.9 %
78.3 %
73.9 %
51.1 %
23.3
2013
Average
29.0 %
62.2 %
45.3 %
63.1 %
87.2 %
79.3 %
49.1 %
22.5
Total
- - -
26.6 %
64.7 %
45.6 %
65.9 %
85.6 %
79.8 %
49.9 %
23.6
Fielding
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
Pos
G
GS
Inn
PO
A
E
FE
TE
DP
DPS
DPT
DPF
Scp
SB
CS
PB
WP
FP
TZ
2011
Dodgers
P
47
0
46.2
4
7
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
.917
2012
Dodgers
P
45
0
45.0
0
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1.000
2013
Dodgers
P
6
0
8.0
1
2
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
.750
Total
- - -
P
98
0
99.2
5
15
2
0
2
0
1
0
0
1
.909
Advanced Fielding
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
Pos
Inn
rSB
rGDP
rARM
rGFP
rPM
DRS
BIZ
Plays
RZR
OOZ
CPP
RPP
TZL
FSR
ARM
DPR
RngR
ErrR
UZR
UZR/150
2011
Dodgers
P
46.2
1
0
-2
-1
2012
Dodgers
P
45.0
0
0
-1
0
2013
Dodgers
P
8.0
0
0
0
0
Total
- - -
P
99.2
1
0
-3
-1
Value
Projections
|
Minor Leagues
|
Regular Season
Season
Team
RA9-Wins
BIP-Wins
LOB-Wins
FDP-Wins
RAR
WAR
Dollars
Salary
2011
Dodgers
1.3
0.3
0.6
0.9
3.0
0.3
$1.5
2012
Dodgers
1.1
-0.3
1.1
0.8
2.8
0.3
$1.3
2013
Dodgers
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.8
-0.1
($0.4)
Total
- - -
2.1
-0.1
1.8
1.6
5.0
0.5
$2.4
Contracts
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