FanGraphs Chat – 4/17/13

Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so I’m chatting. Queue is open, and I’ll start answering the questions in about 15 minutes. Regular reminder that I’m not a fantasy guy still applies. Talk to Eno tomorrow if you want advice on whether you should trade/drop/panic.

Comment From Alpha Chris
Do pitchers with less control get more strikes looking? The thought being the hitter knows the pitcher is erratic and takes more.

Dave Cameron: That would seem to be intuitively true, but I’ve never seen it tested. This seems like the kind of thing I should make Sullivan write about.

Comment From Alan
Dave, I’m struggling to see this Justin Upton trade as anything but one-sided. I know he won’t stay on pace for 100 home runs, but do you still think the deal was even?

Dave Cameron: Martin Prado is still a very good player, so yes.

Comment From Hunter
Are the Marlins worse than the Astros? As an Astros fan I really want Rodon at 1.1 in the 2014 draft.

Dave Cameron: It’s hard to say because we haven’t seen a Marlins line-up with a healthy Stanton yet. Without him, yes, they’re worse.

Comment From Eric Wedge
Is my job on the line?

Dave Cameron: Not any more than your bosses. You won’t get the blame if the kids never start hitting. That will be on Jack.

Dave Cameron: But if he goes, everyone goes.

Comment From Moses
Are you buying Vernon Wells’ improved numbers?

Dave Cameron: I think he can be better than he was in LA the last few years, sure. But he’s not the best hitter in baseball, and he’ll cool off.

Comment From Guest
You said last week that prospects with Montero’s skillset are often overrated. Can you give a couple of examples of current prospects that fit that mold?

Dave Cameron: There really aren’t any super highly thought of bat-only prospects right now. Nick Castellanos might be the most similar, but he can play the field.

Comment From Jaack
So I was looking at the fangraphs page for sample size, and it says that both GB rate and GB/FB stabilize for hitters at around 200 PA, while fly ball rate stabilizes around 250 PA? Is there something I’m not getting, or is that not mathematically possible? Here’s the page for reference: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

Dave Cameron: Fly ball rate is not ball in air rate. There are also line drives, and separating out FB from LD can be tricky.

Comment From SMC
How worried should the Rangers be about Moreland?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be worried, I’d just be trying to replace him.

Comment From SMC
I know it’s early, but Dom Brown seems to be exactly the same guy he was last year…

Dave Cameron: Yet another spring training narrative gone bust.

Comment From person
So. Dan Haren looks broken. How much more leash do the Nats give him and who takes his spot when he “develops an injury”

Dave Cameron: His velocity is up a tick from last year, so I wouldn’t assume that he’s permanently broken yet.

Comment From Pete
I understand that it is early and I need to be patient, but is there any reason I shouldn’t swap Montero for Arencibia at my catcher position? Seems like Wedge is benching him at will…

Dave Cameron: Wedge is benching him because he’s bad. He belongs in the minors.

Comment From AJT
What do you think of Tony Cingrani? From what I have heard/read, he is primarily a fastball-curveball guy who mixes a change in every once in awhile. Are there any good comparisons, anyone who can be used to get a general idea of how he should perform?

Dave Cameron: Carson and I talked about this on the podcast on Monday, but most of the comps for Cingrani are relievers. You don’t see too many guys live off their fastball in this way in the rotation.

Comment From Benzedrine
Braves announcer compared Juan Francisco to Andres Galarraga yesterday. is that a fair comparison?

Dave Cameron: Well, they’re both human.

Comment From Phillies
Will Halladay figure out his command and be an above average pitcher again?

Dave Cameron: I would guess yes.

Comment From Preston
Is Evan Gattis a long term answer at C for the Braves?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Keith
Hosmer still looks lost, is sending him back to AAA too drastic?

Dave Cameron: Not if they had a better option.

Comment From Oscar
Will Napoli even get any spot/emergency time at catcher this year, or is he 1B all the way now?

Dave Cameron: He’ll never catch again. His hips are shot.

Comment From Royo
I know it is early and not likely to last, but how common is it for a player like Austin Jackson to so dramatically cut down on their Ks?

Dave Cameron: Article on this coming later today…

Comment From Manny
Can you put the current Lincecum into a nutshell today? Is the pure velocity decline that much of a culprit here?

Dave Cameron: Stuff has declined, which has exposed command problems now that he can’t fool everyone with change-ups on every pitch. Long term future is in the bullpen.

Comment From Brad
Would be interested to hear your thoughts on Jeff Sullivan’s piece concerning umpire mistakes. Thanks as always for the chat.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the game would be less entertaining with more correct calls, personally.

Comment From Jason
Marlins attendance in their new stadium this year is about what it was in their old stadium. How bad does this make the public funding look?

Dave Cameron: Can’t blame the fans. Loria deserves his own special section in hades.

Comment From ZIPS ROS vs. Update
Dave…what’s the difference between ROS and Update?

Dave Cameron: Rest of season is what they’ll do going forward, while update is what their final line will be, including what’s already happened. Update is basically current line + ROS projection.

Comment From Nick
How long does it take before we take breakouts seriously? How long is it before we say player X is Bryan Lahair and player Y is Chase Headley?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how a player is breaking out. If a dude is showing an entirely revamped approach, you can notice it sooner than if its BABIP driven.

Comment From Christian
Should Angels fans be worried or is this just a bump in the road?

Dave Cameron: Some of both. The pitching isn’t very good.

Comment From SF Dave
How bummed should the Dodgers be about their run production with all that payroll?

Dave Cameron: Matt Kemp’s health should be a pretty real concern.

Comment From DLowe
Hey Dave, Slow starts for Butler, Beltre, and Bruce so far this year – just a slow start, or cause for concern for any of them?

Dave Cameron: No reason to be worried, unless you think that this is a bad year to have your last name start with the letter B.

Comment From Clown questions (Broseph)
I noticed that there’s ZiPS and Steamer rest of season updated projections this year…very nice

Dave Cameron: David is sneaky with some of these rollouts. I’d imagine an announcement is forthcoming on Steamer ROS/Update very soon.

Comment From Matt
Has a study ever been done on the likelihood of a hit based on AB length? Whenever I see 8,9,10 pitch ABs I can’t help but think the batter is familiarizing himself with a pitcher’s release and adjusting his swing timing, but I’ve never seen empirical evidence.

Dave Cameron: It’s been studied, and I think the answer is that there’s no obvious benefit to either side.

Comment From Lloyd
Will Ian Kinsler be wearing a 1B glove at this time next year? Maybe even sooner?

Dave Cameron: My guess is yes.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Profar/Olt/Grimm/Gallo/Odor for Stanton: Anyone say no?

Dave Cameron: Marlins probably want more. But that is the kind of package that gets the conversation started, most likely.

Comment From Nick
What is the highest BABIP you would project a player to have. It seems like .400 is reasonable.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think you can reasonably forecast anything above .360.

Comment From Dave
Do major league teams have any influence over minor league stadiums/conditions? I’m thinking especially at AAA, where there are some brutal parks for pitchers.

Dave Cameron: The minor league teams operate independently of the big league club on non-player decisions, except in the few cases the team is owned by the MLB franchise.

Comment From Steve
Have you given up on Ackley, Smoak, and Montero?

Dave Cameron: I gave up on Smoak last summer, and I don’t see Montero being a productive big leaguer in the near future. Ackley will be fine, I think.

Comment From PR
is fielding performance as volatile as hitting performance?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how you define fielding performance. People tend to think of defense as a very stable set of skills, since you’re either fast or you’re not, but the difference between a good and bad fielder is often based on how many 50/50 plays you make. It doesn’t take much to push that one direction or the other.

Comment From Timothy
Do you really think Prado will match Upton in WAR this season?

Dave Cameron: I didn’t say that he would. I think it won’t be too terribly far apart, probably within +1 win, and Prado is both cheaper and not the only thing Arizona got in return.

Comment From Jaack
I often see people spelling the Pirate’s center fielder’s name as McCutcheon, and it always stands out to me as awfully misspelled. Is this a nickname that I just never picked up on or can people just not spell (or both)

Dave Cameron: People can’t spell.

Comment From Guest
So the Nationals through this many games aren’t that awesome

Dave Cameron: Thankfully, we don’t have to use only the data from this many games to evaluate teams.

Comment From person
Matt Carpenter: Made of Awesome, or just starting off the season hot?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Thomas
There isn’t a surefire backup and he does the job defensively, but how long should the Royals give Mike Moustakas to get it together at the plate? Thanks for chatting.

Dave Cameron: They put their eggs in the Moustakas/Hosmer baskets for 2013, and don’t really have any alternatives. But, yeah, if they don’t start hitting, it’s probably time to start considering that they might not start hitting.

Comment From Timmy
Any players currently on the Astros that are valuable trade pieces, or long term building blocks?

Dave Cameron: Bud Norris is a decent trade chip. Altuve is a building block.

Comment From Mike
When someone like Jeremy Hellickson (but not just him specifically) continually supresses BABIP, what’s the first thing that comes to mind to check in terms of periphs, pitchfx, etc. to determine why?

Dave Cameron: Infield fly rate.

Comment From im only one man
Miguel Sano is a bat only guy. But (it appears) he has some understanding of the strike zone.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, and his power is legit, unlike Montero’s.

Comment From Guest
Mike Olt is/was probably a highly touted bat only dude.

Dave Cameron: Mike Olt is actually a pretty good defender.

Comment From Brian
Is there a way to find cumulative bullpen stats at the team level year by year? As a Mets fan I feel like they have not had a good bullpen since 2006. Given that individual bullpen performance seems to be hit or miss year to year i am wondering if any teams consistently outperform with regards to the bullpen.

Dave Cameron: You can do this on FG. Just go to teams, pitching, relievers.

Comment From Ed
Has Jesus Montero already lost his job after two weeks? Seeing a lot more of Shoppach lately.

Dave Cameron: Ryan Divish thinks they’re just giving him a clear-his-head break, but I don’t think he’s going to be the regular catcher for much longer.

Comment From Dan
Austin Jackson now one of the very best players in the game? 7.5% K%, more BB than K, power, speed, defense…

Dave Cameron: If he can keep this contact rate up, yes.

Comment From Eno Saris
Any chance Junichi Tazawa takes the closer job from Baily while Hanrahananan is on the shelf?

Dave Cameron: Uehara.

Comment From jesse
now that the Jackie Bradley hype is died down, and Boston is interesting because they are winning, is it time to admit it was wrong to have him up and send back to AAA?

Dave Cameron: Not sure what harm it did to give him a shot. He didn’t hit, so now he goes back, and the service time issue goes away.

Comment From Whiny Puma
Do you have faith in Jarrod Parker?

Dave Cameron: Not a lot.

Comment From Tim
I watched the Tigers-M’s game as a neutral observer last night, and I just can’t get over the fact that Seattle traded Fister for nothing.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, pretty lousy move.

Comment From Joel
Nick Castellanos was given a 70 grade in power by BA rankings. How many HRs does that translate to? I’m trying to get a deeper understanding of what these numbers mean, is there an article you could point to for that?

Dave Cameron: Mark Smith just did a great series on the 20-80 scale translated to numbers.

Comment From Idaho Fan
Why so many front office changes during Jack Z’s tenure as GM? They started with clear idea of building a team to fit ballpark. What do they have now?

Dave Cameron: A bunch of DHs.

Comment From bradley
Does Montero to the minors mean Zunino gets the callup now?

Dave Cameron: Zunino isn’t ready. I don’t think Montero will go to the minors until Zunino is ready, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Shoppach became the regular catcher pretty soon.

Comment From Mike
Can you explain how pop ups work in the pitching formulas. Are they valued the same as strikeouts? I ask because it still means the hitter made contact, and some pop ups head out of play, just being another foul ball. Has any pitcher ever stated that they know how to pitch for a hitter to hit a pop up?

Dave Cameron: Infield flies are the result of pitching up in the zone, and yes, there’ a decent year to year correlation for IFFBs. In pitcher WAR, we give pitchers credit for IFFBs.

Comment From Guest
Who looks like the best team in the AL in the early going? A’s/Tigers?

Dave Cameron: The Tigers haven’t gotten a bunch of games against the Astros. I think the A’s are solid, but their numbers are inflated.

Comment From Guest
How much of the simultaneous failures of Smoak/Ackley/Montero is (a) they were overrated to begin with, (b) developmental, (c) some combination?

Dave Cameron: C, but more A with Smoak and Montero.

Comment From Jason
Dave, did the “Should FIP incorporate pop-ups?” debate ever get resolved?

Dave Cameron: We left FIP unchanged, but we added IFFBs to the pitcher’s side of the ledger in pitcher WAR.

Comment From Too Many Joes
Are the Red Sox going to make room for Allen Webster in the rotation if he keeps blowing away hitters in AAA?

Dave Cameron: He probably has to throw more strikes first.

Comment From Mitchell Boggs
Should the Cards stick with me in the 9th?

Dave Cameron: I’d give the job to Rosenthal.

Comment From Steve
If John Axford has only given up home runs on his fastball, why would he ever throw his fastball again?

Dave Cameron: If he stopped throwing his fastball, he’d give up home runs on his other pitchers instead.

Comment From Josh
Giants starting pitchers: give it more time or cause for concern?

Dave Cameron: We talked about how their rotation isn’t actually that great in the pre-season. They need another SP.

Comment From Glumbo
Any chance you guys can put more than “Fangraphs Chat” when chatting. I may be nitpicking, but I’m only semi-regular at best, so I don’t know what everyone’s specialties are. I like how Mike Newman’s will say “prospect chat”. Some chatters seem averse to fantasy questions, and while that’s entirely fine, it would probably save us all time and trouble if that’s cleared up in the title.

Dave Cameron: This is the only one that doesn’t have the name of the chatter in the title. I’ve been just running the FanGraphs Chat name for so long that it feels weird to change it.

Comment From Guest
Re BABIP, at what point do we stop attributing Austin Jackson’s BABIP to luck, and start to recognize he is exceeding the typical bounds? He’s put up .396 and .371 in two complete seasons of over 600 PAs, and even in his worst season (2011) he still put up a .340 BABIP. Obviously this year’s .418 BABIP is unsustainable, but isn’t it fair to assume at this point that Jackson’s true talent is better than a .360 BABIP?

Dave Cameron: He might be near .360, but that’s still the upper bound for true talent. You still need to regress to the mean, and not just assume observed = true talent.

Comment From Jaack
On the reasonable BABIP projection thing, Ty Cobb had a BABIP north of .400 4 times out the 16 seasons for which it is listed for him…..

Dave Cameron: The game is different now than it was when Ty Cobb played.

Comment From Sean T.
Are the Braves really this good? Or is this a product of playing the Phillies, Marlins, Cubs, and Royals to start the season (credit given for series against Washington).

Dave Cameron: They’re not going to win 94% of their games, but they’re good.

Comment From Preston
What are your thoughts on Yovani Gallardo the rest of the season?

Dave Cameron: I hope he takes more cabs.

Comment From Guest
Is Matt Harvey the real deal?

Dave Cameron: Yeah.

Comment From Glumbo
How bad does the Pujols deal look today? He can barely get to first base. Would he even get a Hamilton-esque deal if here were in FA right now?

Dave Cameron: Well, he is hitting the crap out of the baseball right now.

Comment From James
When do expect we’ll see Oscar Taveras in the big leagues? Everyone seems to cite a potential injury to Beltran as the precursor to a callup for OT, but it seems to me that Matt Adams would call move to 1B with Craig sliding a full-time OF job.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think Taveras spends most of the year in the minors.

Comment From person hscer
Pineda/Campos-Montero/Noesi will go down as the ______ trade of all time

Dave Cameron: most overrated.

Comment From Sean T.
Do you think that rating closers should somehow be tied to WPA as a way to ‘prove’ that your best relievers should be used in high leverage situations instead of the ninth?

Dave Cameron: The ninth inning often is the most high leverage situation.

Comment From Preston
Do you think catching is part of Montero’s struggles at the plate? He raked in his short period as DH of the Yankees (SSS I know). He’s way out of his element behind the plate and it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t mentally carry his struggles with him in his AB’s.

Dave Cameron: The numbers were the exact opposite last year, as he did far better when catching than DH’ing. I think his problem is that he has a terrible approach at the plate and his power has always been overrated.

Comment From nik
If the Phillies are out of it in July, do Kendrick and Lannan have some trade value?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Anthony
Do you think it’s more important to look at what TYPE of pitcher a pitcher is, over whether or not they’re left handed/right handed when trying to match up hitters?

Dave Cameron: You should look at both.

Comment From Guest
What is the team that you predict to go to the World Series from the National League?

Dave Cameron: Washington.

Comment From Eric
Is there any intellectual value of doing some sort of combination of WPA and WAR or Clutch and WAR, to get some Idea of how well a players production actually ended up contributing to a teams win total. It would not be predictive, but it could be interesting right?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what you’re trying to measure. I like RE24 as a decent substitute for batting value if you’re wanting to include situational performance.

Comment From Clown questions (Broseph)
going back to calling Eno’s chat’s “fantasy” or “rotographs” may help alleviate confusion about chat “topic”

Dave Cameron: Eno chats so much about beer that we don’t want to mislead people.

Comment From Pogotheostrich
Assuming Rosenthal is the Cards best RP wouldn’t he be most vaulable not as the closer but as a shutdown reliver that comes in whenever needed instead of being tied to the 9th inning?

Dave Cameron: If you look at the leverage index of closers versus setup guys, closers almost always have higher LIs.

Comment From Dudareeno
Heard someone say Ryan Zimmerman should be moved to first because he can’t throw? Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: It’s a legitimate concern.

Comment From person hscer
How would you handicap the odds of the NL East winner at this point? 50% ATL, 40% WAS, 10% other?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably flip WAS and ATL.

Comment From Sean T.
Should baseball (and other sports) be doing more with DUIs? You get suspended 50 games for PEDs or pot (which don’t put other people at risk) yet nothing for DUIs?

Dave Cameron: Yes, I’d like to see DUIs heavily penalized. There’s no excuse for millionaires to drive drunk. You’re insanely rich. Call a cab. HIre a limo. Do anything else.

Dave Cameron: (There’s no excuse for non-millionaires to drive drunk either, of course.)

Comment From Gary
You’re the owner of a team in a smaller market with an outdated stadium…the city will give you an extra $500 million dollars to use at your disposal (stadium upgrades, possible cable channel, enhancing the roster, etc), only if you hire Hawk Harrelson as your GM, a la 1985. What do you say; is that even enough money for you to consider?

Dave Cameron: This question is hilarious. Also, I can’t answer without knowing how long I have to keep him for. 1 year? 5 years? 10 years?

Comment From Guest
Hi Dave. Is there a reason that the “under .500” description is stated the way it is? For example, last year the Pirates finished 79-83. Many say they were “4 games under .500.” In my view, they were 2 games under .500, because if they’d won 2 more games they’d have been .500. Is there a reason for this, or am I thinking of something wrong?

Dave Cameron: You’re looking at it retroactively, while everyone else looks at it from a future perspective. If you’re 77-81, you need to win four straight games to get back to .500. Thus, you’re four games under .500.

Comment From Doughie
Is Julio Borbon any good? I see a low power, whiff prone hitter. Maybe the CF glove has value but not sure what is so interesting there.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s a 5th outfielder.

Comment From Andrew
What would Koji Uehara do as a starter?

Dave Cameron: Get hurt.

Comment From Hoozer
seems like a Myers call-up in coming soon. Rays offense is anemic! Thoughts on where in the line-up he bats, and what his production might be?

Dave Cameron: You may be interested in knowing that Myers hasn’t been that good in Durham either.

Comment From James
Salvador Perez has caught EVERY game for the Royals this season. Isn’t that borderline abusive?

Dave Cameron: Wait, that’s true? Seriously?

Comment From Gary
Re: Hawk Harrelson question: 5 years minimum for the funding in the scenario..

Dave Cameron: I’d probably do it. I’d just retain the rights to hire his entire support staff, so I’d surround Hawk with a bunch of smart people who would convince him to not be awful.

Comment From BX
50 game suspension without pay for first DUI. Would you support that or is it too intense?

Dave Cameron: I’d be okay with it.

Comment From im only one man
Myers is hitting .317/.423/.415 in AAA. I’d say that’s pretty good.

Dave Cameron: .419 BABIP, no power, still striking a decent amount.

Comment From Aaron
wow 50 game suspension without pay for a DUI !? These guys already lose a lot of money going through a DUI, this might work at the major league level but minor leaguers couldn’t handle that kind of suspension

Dave Cameron: Then they shouldn’t drink and drive. It’s really not that hard to decide not to do it.

Comment From James
Their backup, George Kottaras hasn’t appeared in a game this season.

Dave Cameron: I think I shall write about this.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to have some lunch. Thanks for hanging out, everyone.