KATOH’s Top 100 Prospect List for 2016

Please note that this is not the most recent list. An updated version can be found here.

Last week, I published a 2,000-plus word primer on the KATOH projection system I use to forecast prospects. Most notably, I discussed the improvements I made to the model and also explored how well individual minor league statistics can predict big league success. Today, I’m back with the end result of all of my math: KATOH’s top 100 list.

I know you probably know this, but I’d like to reiterate that you shouldn’t think of this as “Chris Mitchell’s Top 100 List,” and certainly not “FanGraphs’ Top 100 List.” This is simply the output from a flawed statistical model that fails to take into account many of the factors that go into evaluating a prospect. As always, you should never choose between stats and scouting — or beer and tacos — if you don’t have to.

There are players on this list who feel way too high to me, and there are players who feel way too low to me. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Plus, there are fewer of those head-scratchers than there were in previous versions. I consider this to be a good sign, considering my new model takes into account more information. I’ll be going more in-depth on each of these prospects — and many others, as well — as I work my way through the team lists.

I won’t say much else since I know most of you will just skip down to the leaderboard anyway. But first a couple of notes:

  • This list only considers players with at least 300 plate appearances or batters faced in 2015. So most 2015 draftees and players below full-season ball were excluded. I will touch on some of the guys with fewer than 300 PA or BF in the team lists, but left them out here due to the limited amount of data on them.
  • This list only considers 2015 minor league stats. So stats from 2014 and earlier aren’t considered. I realize this this might not be ideal, so I included each player’s 2014 KATOH forecast (using the new model) when applicable (ie. at least 200 PA or BF in 2014). Use that for a bit more context if you wish. I hope to condense things into one tidy number in the future, but don’t want to rush into using an arbitrary weighting system.

Enjoy.

KATOH’s Top 100 Prospects for 2016
Player Team WAR thru 28 2014 WAR thru 28
1 Max Kepler Twins 19.6 0.8
2 J.P. Crawford Phillies 17.5 6.3
3 Corey Seager Dodgers 16.4 9.4
4 Julio Urias Dodgers 15.6 4.5
5 Orlando Arcia Brewers 14.5 4.5
6 Alex Verdugo Dodgers 14.5 3.4
7 Jake Bauers Rays 13.3 3.4
8 Albert Almora Cubs 12.8 3.3
9 Nomar Mazara Rangers 12.7 5.4
10 Ozhaino Albies Braves 12.4 4.0
11 Manuel Margot Padres 12.0 6.2
12 Billy McKinney Cubs 11.2 1.7
13 Jamie Westbrook D-backs 11.2 0.9
14 Gavin Cecchini Mets 11.2 1.9
15 Jacob Nottingham Athletics 11.0 0.1
16 Alex Reyes Cardinals 10.8 1.6
17 Tyler Glasnow Pirates 10.8 5.4
18 Jose Berrios Twins 10.6 4.5
19 Jose Peraza Dodgers 10.6 5.3
20 Willson Contreras Cubs 10.1 0.1
21 A.J. Reed Astros 9.9 1.3
22 Chance Sisco Orioles 9.7 7.1
23 Rafael Devers Red Sox 9.6 2.3
24 Lewis Brinson Rangers 9.2 0.4
25 Ruddy Giron Padres 9.1 #N/A
26 Austin Meadows Pirates 8.7 #N/A
27 Samir Duenez Royals 8.3 2.3
28 Dom Nunez Rockies 8.0 #N/A
29 Lucas Giolito Nationals 7.9 2.5
30 Ramon Flores Brewers 7.7 4.1
31 Trea Turner Nationals 7.6 0.6
32 Willi Castro Indians 7.5 #N/A
33 Josh Bell Pirates 7.5 3.1
34 Juremi Profar Rangers 7.5 0.7
35 Franklin Barreto Athletics 7.4 2.9
36 Jesse Winker Reds 7.4 3.0
37 Sam Travis Red Sox 7.3 1.9
38 Carlos Tocci Phillies 7.3 0.5
39 Renato Nunez Athletics 7.1 2.3
40 Brett Phillips Brewers 6.8 6.2
41 Blake Snell Rays 6.4 0.9
42 Trey Mancini Orioles 6.4 0.5
43 Jeimer Candelario Cubs 6.4 0.8
44 Gleyber Torres Cubs 6.3 3.0
45 Hanser Alberto Rangers 6.2 1.8
46 Reese Mcguire Pirates 6.1 2.7
47 Byron Buxton Twins 6.1 #N/A
48 Mallex Smith Braves 6.1 0.9
49 Jomar Reyes Orioles 6.0 1.1
50 Alex Bregman Astros 5.9 #N/A
51 Tyler Heineman Astros 5.9 1.4
52 Andrew Knapp Phillies 5.7 0.1
53 Dominic Smith Mets 5.6 0.6
54 Boog Powell Mariners 5.5 0.7
55 Ben Gamel Yankees 5.5 0.2
56 Cole Tucker Pirates 5.4 0.5
57 Javier Betancourt Brewers 5.4 1.1
58 Gary Sanchez Yankees 5.3 1.4
59 Nick Williams Phillies 5.3 0.3
60 Edwin Diaz Mariners 5.2 0.9
61 Clayton Blackburn Giants 5.2 4.6
62 Christian Arroyo Giants 5.1 4.6
63 Josh Hader Brewers 5.1 1.5
64 Yairo Munoz Athletics 5.0 2.2
65 Jose De Leon Dodgers 4.8 1.4
66 Austin Barnes Dodgers 4.8 4.8
67 Daniel Robertson Rays 4.8 5.1
68 Rhys Hoskins Phillies 4.7 0.1
69 Brandon Drury D-backs 4.6 3.0
70 Michael Fulmer Tigers 4.6 0.7
71 Zachary Davies Brewers 4.6 2.4
72 Francis Martes Astros 4.4 #N/A
73 Harold Ramirez Pirates 4.4 0.3
74 Jacob Faria Rays 4.4 0.7
75 Ariel Jurado Rangers 4.4 #N/A
76 Tyler White Astros 4.3 1.0
77 Willie Calhoun Dodgers 4.3 #N/A
78 Franmil Reyes Padres 4.3 1.2
79 Dylan Cozens Phillies 4.2 0.2
80 Miguel Almonte Royals 4.2 0.9
81 Kevin Padlo Rockies 4.1 #N/A
82 Nick Gordon Twins 4.1 0.6
83 Jack Flaherty Cardinals 4.1 #N/A
84 Jake Thompson Phillies 4.1 2.6
85 Rowdy Tellez Blue Jays 4.0 1.1
86 Steven Matz Mets 4.0 1.4
87 Carson Kelly Cardinals 4.0 3.7
88 Francelis Montas White Sox 4.0 1.7
89 Jorge Polanco Twins 4.0 1.7
90 Justus Sheffield Indians 3.9 #N/A
91 Victor Reyes D-backs 3.9 0.0
92 Robert Stephenson Reds 3.9 1.1
93 Spencer Adams White Sox 3.9 #N/A
94 Cheslor Cuthbert Royals 3.9 3.1
95 Ryan Castellani Rockies 3.8 #N/A
96 Ronald Torreyes Dodgers 3.8 4.9
97 Zach Lee Dodgers 3.8 1.0
98 Joey Rickard Rays 3.8 0.1
99 Malquin Canelo Phillies 3.7 0.1
100 Brent Honeywell Rays 3.7 #N/A

And so Marlins and Angels fans don’t feel left out…

Marlins’ and Angels’ Top Prospects for 2016, Per KATOH
Player Team WAR thru 28 2014 WAR thru 28
141 Tomas Telis Marlins 2.9 4.0
175 Tyler Deloach Angels 2.5 1.0


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Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.


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Dave
Guest
Dave
5 months 25 days ago

Sorry for my ignorance, could someone explain the “WAR thru 28” and “2014 WAR thru 28” numbers?

Rex Manning Day
Guest
Rex Manning Day
5 months 25 days ago

WAR Thru 28 is the WAR this system projects each player to accumulate by age 28.

2014 WAR Thru 28 is the same statistic calculated using the 2014 version of the system.

JorgeFabregas
Guest
JorgeFabregas
5 months 25 days ago

Nah, it’s using the new system on their 2014 minor league stats.

Yosted
Guest
Yosted
5 months 25 days ago

This list only considers 2015 minor league stats. So stats from 2014 and earlier aren’t considered. I realize this this might not be ideal, so I included each player’s 2014 KATOH forecast (using the new model) when applicable (ie. at least 200 PA or BF in 2014). Use that for a bit more context if you wish. I hope to condense things into one tidy number in the future, but don’t want to rush into using an arbitrary weighting system.

JJ Whats
Guest
JJ Whats
5 months 25 days ago

God, the Dodgers are absolutely stocked.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
5 months 24 days ago

:)

Jim
Guest
Jim
5 months 25 days ago

I know everyone ranks prospects differently and there will be differences of opinion but some of these names really catch me off guard. I’m a Dbacks fan and have barely even heard of Jamie Westbrook and he’s ranked #13 overall. MLB.com doesn’t even rank him in the Dbacks team top 30.

Eric R
Guest
Eric R
5 months 25 days ago

“I hope to condense things into one tidy number in the future, but don’t want to rush into using an arbitrary weighting system.”

If you add the same for, lets say 1 or 2 more years back, then the readers can concoct their own weightign systems in the interim… :)

Eric R
Guest
Eric R
5 months 25 days ago

I took the two years of data and used the linear trendline for those with numbers for both years to estimate the 2014 #N/A’s and then used 67%/33% for a combined number:

3 Corey Seager
2 J.P. Crawford
1 Max Kepler
4 Julio Urias
5 Orlando Arcia
6 Alex Verdugo
9 Nomar Mazara
11 Manuel Margot
7 Jake Bauers
8 Albert Almora


Players who moved the most positions:
+40 Ronald Torreyes
+23 Carson Kelly
+22 Daniel Robertson
+22 Cheslor Cuthbert
+20 Austin Barnes
+19 Clayton Blackburn
+18 Christian Arroyo
-17 Harold Ramirez
-17 Dylan Cozens
-16 Rhys Hoskins
+14 Brett Phillips
-14 Andrew Knapp
-14 Ben Gamel
-12 Nick Williams
-12 Nick Gordon
+11 Brandon Drury
+11 Jake Thompson
-11 Cole Tucker
-11 Jacob Faria
-10 Trey Mancini

brian_msbc
Member
brian_msbc
5 months 25 days ago

So Verdugo is 10 WAR better than Matz?

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
5 months 24 days ago

Through their age-28 seasons, by this projection system which only uses minor league performance data, yeeep.

Jeff P
Guest
Jeff P
5 months 14 days ago

Lol. Matz @ 4 WAR through 28? He might be at 4 WAR by the end of the year.

Tyler
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Tyler
5 months 25 days ago

Interested in how a player like Javier Betancourt makes the list? He hasn’t played above single A, hasn’t done amazing at that level and is not a highly touted talent. I am sure there are more examples of this on the list, but what about these players gets them to be a top 100 talent on this metric?

just a guy
Guest
just a guy
5 months 25 days ago

Precisely. The metric is designed (in part) to ignore the scouting element, and focus on what the stats/data are saying. I don’t know Javier Betancourt at all. I’m assuming he was young for his level, held his own, played a demanding defensive position, is tall, and has a favorable pre-professional background.

The 2000-plus word primer the author hotlinked explains some of the details of the system.

Dave Cameron
Guest
Dave Cameron
5 months 25 days ago

Maybe that’s what people mean when they say don’t scout the stat line.

JacobM
Member
JacobM
5 months 25 days ago

Median age at high A ball is ~23.5. Betancourt turned 20 at the beginning of the season. That, combined with his low K% (Which KATOH weights heavily), position in the middle of the defensive spectrum, and league average batting line make Betancourt an interesting enough prospect to land in the middle of this list. Mostly it’s just the age, though.

Legeisc
Member
Member
Legeisc
5 months 25 days ago

Doesn’t strikeout though going against guys that are much older than him. Lots of these guys make it to the majors as utility guys or fringe starters even though the power numbers aren’t there and there.

cnote66
Member
cnote66
5 months 25 days ago

Yeah, but how does he look in jeans?

Pookie
Guest
Pookie
5 months 25 days ago

No Sean Newcomb? Angels rejoice!

dl80
Guest
dl80
5 months 25 days ago

This may sound silly, but is there a chance everyone was wrong about Buxton? Or not wrong, exactly, but perhaps he’s not going to be the offensive star some once thought.

I’m not basing it just on this projection, but I’m curious what others think.

His .283/.351/.489 line in AA this year looks quite good on the surface, but I’m not sure the .332 BABIP is sustainable in the majors. And the .207 ISO is extremely misleading because of 12 triples. Prorating that to a full season in AA produces about 13 homers, 26 triples, and only 16 doubles. And that’s in AA. There’s no way he’s going to hit 26 triples in the majors in a season. So even if every triple becomes a double, a 13 HR, 13 3B, 29 2B season looks less impressive. Still very good, but that’s assuming his AA numbers carry over completely.

Am I overreacting to a crazy high K/BB rate in the majors and a bad one in a very limited sample in AAA? He’s 22 now, so while he was young for the majors, and maybe AAA, he was likely right on target in AA.

I’m trying to decide where to target him in our dynasty replay draft next year. Defense matters for us, so even that AA line in the majors with plus CF defense would be phenomenal. But I’m worried there’s not as much room for power growth and he was so awful in the majors.

Someone talk me down?

Troll Police
Guest
Troll Police
5 months 25 days ago

jump

mike sixel
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mike sixel
5 months 25 days ago

He was over matched on the breaking ball for sure. But, he seems to be the type that needs an adjustment period at each level. I’ve never been convinced he’ll be a great hitter, but I wouldn’t give up on him just yet.

Jim Carrey, channeling his inner Third Eye Blind
Guest
Jim Carrey, channeling his inner Third Eye Blind
5 months 25 days ago

I wish you would step back from that ledge my friend.

Cat Latos
Guest
Cat Latos
5 months 24 days ago

Mike Trout struggled the same way

the new
Guest
the new
5 months 24 days ago

While Buxton has had a disappointing 2014 and (to a lesser extent) 2015, mostly due to injuries, I really don’t think a .332 BABIP is unsustainable in the majors for someone with 80 grade speed. Indeed, I would bet good money that his BABIP will end up being higher than that in the majors. Buxton’s problem will most likely be Ks, not BABIP, and even that may end up being manageable.

Torncuff Lookout
Guest
Torncuff Lookout
5 months 24 days ago

I never saw Mike Cameron play in the minors, but I’d bet he looked like Buxton. A guy who’s been watching the Southern League (in a professional capacity) said the same thing. He said he didn’t think Cameron was going to be as good as he turned out, but said Buxton chould be better. Cameron hit for more power one year in the minors….especially once he turned 23. Go look up his stats.

Trey Baughn
Member
Member
Trey Baughn
5 months 25 days ago

Thanks for putting this together. Any chance of adding a column to show player’s position?

evo34
Member
evo34
5 months 24 days ago

That, and how much of WAR is due to the player’s position would be very helpful.

Yosted
Guest
Yosted
5 months 25 days ago

Does KATOH have any sort of error bars that it generates for each player? I’d find that just as interesting if available

Mike
Guest
Mike
5 months 25 days ago

In what universe is Tim Anderson not a top 100 prospect?

JorgeFabregas
Guest
JorgeFabregas
5 months 25 days ago

Argh.

“I know you probably know this, but I’d like to reiterate that you shouldn’t think of this as “Chris Mitchell’s Top 100 List,” and certainly not “FanGraphs’ Top 100 List.” This is simply the output from a flawed statistical model that fails to take into account many of the factors that go into evaluating a prospect. As always, you should never choose between stats and scouting — or beer and tacos — if you don’t have to.”

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
5 months 25 days ago

I know these are cornball, but:

In what universe is [my favorite team’s best prospect that isn’t on this list] not a top 100 prospect?

dang
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dang
5 months 25 days ago

As a Phillies fan, it’s encouraging to see that the organization is no longer in shambles and its future bleak. Feels like we’re finally beginning the crawl out of the cellar.

Za
Guest
Za
5 months 24 days ago

As a Mets fan, I want to point out that I’m much more scared of the Phillies moving forward than the Braves – a team in the middle of selling off all its impact talent for middling, risky prospects.

Michael Procton
Guest
5 months 14 days ago

How’s that working out for you now, chief?

JorgeFabregas
Guest
JorgeFabregas
5 months 25 days ago

Any plans to put up a full spreadsheet like last year? Maybe in Fangraphs+?

Trey Baughn
Member
Member
Trey Baughn
5 months 25 days ago

Another request: now that KATOH includes defensive metrics, any chance the WAR totals can be broken out by offense and defense?

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
5 months 24 days ago

It doesn’t, it just considers the player’s defensive position.

Nathaniel Dawson
Guest
Nathaniel Dawson
5 months 24 days ago

You can’t break WAR out into defensive and offensive components. WAR doesn’t work that way, it considers whe whole of a players contributions. What you’re probably looking for is offensive wins above/below average and defensive wins above/below average.

evo34
Member
evo34
5 months 24 days ago

“What you’re probably looking for is offensive wins above/below average and defensive wins above/below average.”

That’s exactly what he asked for…

Adam S
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Adam S
5 months 25 days ago

Awesome work! Do you have the full dataset available to the public similar to last year’s dataset through Google Docs?

Jimmy Butler
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Jimmy Butler
5 months 25 days ago

Just curious how a guy who leads AA in home runs by double digits, RBI by over 20 and won 4 minor league championships in 4 years, never gets any consideration for a Top 100 prospect or WAR consideration. Adam Brett Walker II appears to be an amazing prospect (at least when I’ve watched him), but I never hear about him as a Top tier prospect.

Dave
Guest
Dave
5 months 25 days ago

To me, playing 4 full minor league seasons, from Rookie to AA, without ever being promoted in a season is a flag to me (maybe not red, but definitely yellow). Why has he never been promoted mid season?

Dustin Gray
Guest
Dustin Gray
5 months 25 days ago

He’s 24 in AA, posted a .309OBP and 34.8K%. Long story short, he’s basically going up to the plate and swinging out of his shoes hoping for that rare chance that he makes contact.

Jimmy Butler
Guest
Jimmy Butler
5 months 19 days ago

Is that what is perceived (“swinging out of his shoes”) when you lead the league in home runs and strikeouts? He did lead the league in Total Bases and Extra Base Hits and RBI each of the last 2 seasons as well. He didn’t do all of that damage with just home runs.

Ernie Camacho
Guest
Ernie Camacho
5 months 25 days ago

This is really awesome, Chris. Love the KATOH model changes and excited to see some results. You touched on this in the intro post, but seems like the “through age 28” hammers older prospects beyond what their age-level status might contribute to a projection of future performance level. Would you consider posting a top 100 list that shows WAR through 28 divided by years left through 28 as a way to normalize?

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
5 months 25 days ago

Pretty sure that that last table will not make Angels fans feel better.

Bob
Guest
Bob
5 months 25 days ago

…huh.

Smooth
Guest
Smooth
5 months 24 days ago

Why is Steven Matz so low? It doesn’t really seem right.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan
5 months 24 days ago

I have never heard of Samir Duenez, but seeing him in the top 30 made me do some investigating. He seems to be the kind of prospect that breaks KATOH. Granted he is a 19 year old single A 1B who doesn’t strike out a whole lot, but James Loney would laugh at his triple slash line of .266/.314/.332. It is hard to see what exactly KATOH sees in him that would lead to a projection of 8.3 WAR.

Frag
Guest
Frag
5 months 24 days ago

I’m interested in where Yoan Moncada ranks. Was it the strikeouts and/or his position that lowered his ranking?

JacobM
Member
JacobM
5 months 24 days ago

I’m curious how some numbers changed so much from when you ran your old KATOH projections. For example, when you projected Raul Mondesi Jr. right before the World Series, you had him at 9.1 WAR through age 28 and as the 17th ranked prospect overall, but he’s now no longer on this list, which seems odd given how the changes seemed to focus on properly adjusting for defensive positioning. Either way, I’m thankful that you share these projections and the 2014 KATOH projections appear to be holding up very well. I look forward to seeing how these prospects perform in the coming years.

Brandon
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Brandon
5 months 24 days ago

How did Victor Robles not make it? Didn’t have enough AB’s?

dl80
Guest
dl80
5 months 24 days ago

I’m guessing that low A (where Robles finished last year) was not inlcuded, only A, AA, and AAA. So that’s probably why.

Robles does look like a good prospect, with great strike zone judgement and good speed, but only a small amount of power (so far, at age 18) and an average that’s very reliant on an absurdly high BABIP.

Steve
Guest
Steve
5 months 24 days ago

As a Brewers fan, it is heartening to see them well-represented, but the guy I figured would be second or third on the list for them was strangely absent. For Jorge Lopez, was it basically the lack of one standout area (younger for his level, but not exceptionally young; 8+ Ks per 9 instead of 10; etc.)? Or did the two end-of-the-season big league starts ding him?

dudley
Member
Member
dudley
5 months 24 days ago

thanks–fascinating!!how does jorge soler come out under the new KATOH projection system? how much of an effect do you think player height variable had on the outcomes?

James
Member
James
5 months 24 days ago

The Angels and Marlins addition made me laugh.

I’m not complaining, just trying to understand this better. Does this system tend to reward AVG and SB more than HR? Or is it mainly that it rewards a 19/20 year old for having a high AVG in Double A, and because he is only 19 his power hasn’t really developed yet?

Bad Bill
Guest
Bad Bill
5 months 24 days ago

Interesting that Jack Flaherty figures in this list but Luke Weaver does not, given that they were in the same draft and Weaver has been doing at least as well, if not better, in a higher league. Just an age difference?

Charlotte
Guest
Charlotte
5 months 24 days ago

God I hope KATOH is right about Chance Sisco. I want 20 years of Orioles Superstar Chance Sisco in my life.

On similar lines, can we agree that it should be Maximilian Kepler? German outfielder Maximilian Kepler.

Greg Bird in 2017
Guest
Greg Bird in 2017
5 months 24 days ago

I was skeptical about katoh before last year. I think you have a really interesting system now though. My question… Is there a way to account for your superstars totals to be closer? Barring injuries, Correa and Bryant should dwarf their totals. Anyways, great job!

Lincoln
Guest
Lincoln
5 months 24 days ago

There doesn’t appear to be a very strong correlation between season, as the WAR/28 and 14WAR/28 differ wildly in some cases. Does this give you pause regarding the potential usefulness of such a system? If a guy like Kepler can go from an afterthought to far and away the best guy in the system based solely off of less than 500 ABs, are you forecasting more actual talent or just random noise?

James
Member
James
5 months 24 days ago

It’s weird to me to think that the 100th best prospect is going to have only a 3.7 war when he is 28. I’m not saying it’s wrong at all. It’s just interesting.

bmarkham
Guest
bmarkham
5 months 24 days ago

It’s not saying that. It’s saying on average, the 100th best prospect will generate that amount. The 100th best prospect will be a bust and contribute 0 WAR a significant amount of time.

On that note, it would be nice to see their predicted bust rate alongside the average WAR. Thanks for the list Chris and thanks for hanging out in the comments with us.

Patrick C
Guest
Patrick C
5 months 24 days ago

As someone who is able to watch a lot of minor league baseball on the East Coast, I first want to say that I am pleased to see that Phillies 1st base prospect Rhys Hoskins is FINALLY getting some love form someone! The fact that you have him 68th tells me that my eye test was probably correct on him (at least for this season) when I had a chance to see him in the South Atlantic League. I am also happy to see Trey Mancini on this board as well. It shows that the KATOH meter truly looks at a players ability at the plate. Saying that however, I have to admit that I also have some flaws here (and a part of this may be because I don’t understand the rating fully). I find it quite surprising that players like Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer were left off this list considering they were probably 2 of the better players in the Carolina League. In fact, in my opinion, Zimmer was the best player I had a chance to see last year between 4 different leagues that ranged from low A (New York Penn) to AAA (International League). I also find it odd that this type of meter only ranks a player from their offensive talent and not on their fielding and all around game. I am curious, in your opinion, how much you think your list would change if you take into account the other 3 tools of a player (fielding, throwing, running). I am willing to bet a player like Orioles Chance Sisco drops considerably on this list?

Tacocat
Guest
Tacocat
5 months 24 days ago

I have no content to add. Just wanted to say thanks for making every single one of those names a link.

It’s the little things in life…

Boodes
Guest
Boodes
5 months 24 days ago

Of interest to me as a Brewer fan:

Two of David Stearns’ first trades were for prospects not highly rated on traditional scouting lists, but in KATOH top 100: Ramon Flores (30) and Javier Betancourt (57). Maybe his analytics models indicated some value.

dabayner
Guest
dabayner
5 months 24 days ago

Thanks for posting the 2016 version! Any chance you’d extend the list to 200 like you did last year? I think it’s pretty neat to see how guys like Jose De Leon, Renato Nunez, Orlando Arcia, Frankie Montas, and Brandon Drury jumped from the 101-200 level based on projections from 2014 to the top 100 this time. Of course, KATOH has its limitations, but its face validity looks really solid.

evo34
Member
evo34
5 months 24 days ago

Does your model account for the fact that LHBs are more likely to get platooned, and thus accumulate less playing time and fewer WAR in real life?

Noah Baron
Member
Noah Baron
5 months 24 days ago

I have to ask: does KATOH take into account minor league park factors? Also, does it adjust for each league’s respective run environment?

If it doesn’t do that, than KATOH is pretty much useless. A lot of the guys I’m seeing on this list are just youngish hitters playing in hitter-friendly environments.

Pirates Hurdles
Guest
Pirates Hurdles
5 months 23 days ago

KATOH is useless more so because the premise is faulty: that minor league numbers can be used to predict MLB outcome.

evo34
Member
evo34
5 months 23 days ago

According to his THT article, it accounts for league but not park. I love the amount of work that has been put into this project, but ignoring park effects altogether is a pretty big flaw.

http://minorleaguecentral.com/parkfactors

Mike HC
Guest
Mike HC
5 months 23 days ago

Thanks a ton for this. Absolutely love it. Looked into a whole bunch of different players that weren’t on my radar at all and some I like more now that were on the border for me.

wpDiscuz