The 2012 Trade Value List, in Retrospect

Next week, I’m rolling out the latest version of our annual trade value series. Before we get into this year’s list, though, I think it’s instructive to look back at where players were ranked a year ago, and see if there are any lessons to be learned from the placement of various players. I would rather learn from history than repeat it.

Let’s just start with the list itself.

Ranking	Player	Position	Team
1	Mike Trout	OF	Angels
2	Bryce Harper	OF	Nationals
3	Andrew McCutchen	OF	Pirates
4	Evan Longoria	3B	Rays
5	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	Marlins
6	Ryan Braun	OF	Brewers
7	Matt Kemp	OF	Dodgers
8	Stephen Strasburg	SP	Nationals
9	Jason Heyward	OF	Braves
10	Jose Bautista	OF	Blue Jays
11	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	Rockies
12	Buster Posey	C	Giants
13	Jered Weaver	SP	Angels
14	Justin Verlander	SP	Tigers
15	Brett Lawrie	3B	Blue Jays
16	Clayton Kershaw	SP	Dodgers
17	Felix Hernandez	SP	Mariners
18	Miguel Cabrera	3B	Tigers
19	Madison Bumgarner	SP	Giants
20	David Price	SP	Rays
21	Gio Gonzalez	SP	Nationals
22	Mike Moustakas	3B	Royals
23	Justin Upton	OF	Diamondbacks
24	Matt Moore	SP	Rays
25	Jason Kipnis	2B	Indians
26	Joey Votto	1B	Reds
27	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	Rockies
28	Jurickson Profar	SS	Rangers
29	Dylan Bundy	SP	Orioles
30	Ian Kinsler	2B	Rangers
31	Chris Sale	SP	White Sox
32	Mark Trumbo	1B/OF	Angels
33	Austin Jackson	OF	Tigers
34	Dustin Pedroia	2B	Red Sox
35	Pablo Sandoval	3B	Giants
36	Jay Bruce	OF	Reds
37	Wil Myers	OF	Royals
38	Matt Wieters	C	Orioles
39	Alex Gordon	OF	Royals
40	Johnny Cueto	SP	Reds
41	Starlin Castro	SS	Cubs
42	Yu Darvish	SP	Rangers
43	Adam Jones	OF	Orioles
44	Matt Holliday	OF	Cardinals
45	Ben Zobrist	2B/OF	Rays
46	Robinson Cano	2B	Yankees
47	Alcides Escobar	SS	Royals
48	Matt Cain	SP	Giants
49	Yovani Gallardo	SP	Brewers
50	Elvis Andrus	SS	Rangers

Players Whose Stock Has Fallen Significantly

Braun (#6), Kemp (#7), Weaver (#13), Lawrie (#15), Moustakas (#22), Upton (#23), Bundy (#29), Kinsler (#30), Trumbo (#32), Wieters (#38), Cueto (#40), Castro (#41), Escobar (#47), Gallardo (#49), Andrus (#50)

There are basically two types of players on that list (with Braun and Kinsler being the notable outliers): pitchers who got injured or have seen their stuff decline and young players who just haven’t hit much since the list was published.

Pitcher injuries are a fact of life, and short of just leaving out every hurler, I’m not sure there’s much to be learned from there. Jered Weaver’s contract probably got too much weight in pushing him ahead of younger pitchers with better stuff, but Weaver had been terrific in the first half of the year, and there’s only so much we can do to forecast future pitcher health.

The young hitters, though, might tell us something. In pretty much each case — Trumbo excepted — they are guys who could be terrific players as long as they hit at even an average level. They played up the middle positions or were terrific corner defenders, and they were almost universally elite prospects who showed real offensive potential in the minors. They were at a point in their aging curve where improvement could be expected, and they were already good players who looked like they could become great ones if the bat took a step forward.

Instead, the bats have either stagnated or gone backwards, and this group is a reminder that young players don’t all improve at the same rates, and a league average hitter in his early 20s is a league average hitter because he’s showing some kind of offensive deficiency, which may or may not improve. There’s a reason that hitters are the hardest things to scout, because there are a lot of things about hitting that aren’t physical, and only become apparent with experience.

This year, I’m probably going to grade players of this type a little more conservatively. The best players in the game are those who can play premium positions while also hitting, but it also can be difficult to look at young players at premium positions and figure out just which ones are indeed going to hit.

Players Whose Stock Has Risen Significantly

Posey (#12), Hernandez (#17), Gonzalez (#27), Sale (#31), Darvish (#42)

This is inherently a much shorter list, because time erodes a player’s trade value by taking away a year of team control — which is often at a well below market salary — and moves the player closer to free agency. Most players on the list are going to lose trade value every season unless they show real improvement over the past year, or sign a new contract that is far enough below the market price that it improves their value as an asset.

Posey and Hernandez both signed long term deals that bought out a bunch of free agent years, and while both extensions were pricey, they’re now elite players under team control for many seasons, with free agency no longer looming as a potential escape route. Sale signed a much cheaper extension, since he wasn’t anywhere near free agency, but also continues to dominate. Gonzalez, at age-27, is having his best season yet, while Darvish has shown better command and has pitched more like the #1 starter Texas expected than he did in the first half of last year.

Beyond that, though, the big jumps come from guys who didn’t make the list last year. We’ll talk more about those guys next week.

Overall Takeaway

While you’ll always look back and wonder why you missed something that seems obvious in retrospect, overall, I’m fairly happy with last year’s list. The most significant change in the evaluation process was to penalize star players on big contracts much less than I had in previous versions — all the money flowing into the game has made these players much more valuable — and in general, I think those guys have held their value pretty well. With most Major League teams now having access to decent sized revenue streams and the rise of the long term extension for elite players, it’s no longer so easy to purchase high quality talent in free agency, so trading for an impact player with long term control — even at high salaries — is more appealing than it used to be.

Of course, guys like Matt Kemp show the downside of this kind of player. A year ago, he looked like one of the game’s very best players, signed to a below market deal that covered most of the seasons which he should be expected to produce at a high level. A year later, he’s costing the Dodgers $20 million per year to play like the replacement level outfielder when he’s not on the DL. Kemp’s value has plunged over the last calendar year, to the point where a guy who almost made the top five last year is on the bubble for this year’s list.

Basically, there is no such thing as as a risk free asset. Everyone gets hurt, and even great players can stop playing like great players with little or no warning. When evaluating a player’s trade value, teams have to make the best bets they can, but the failure rate of even the best assets reminds us how unpredictable baseball really is.