Bullpen Report: April 5, 2015

• I had planned on bringing out the Bullpen Report for its nightly debut already today, but the vast majority of my time was involved in massive closer grid updates to cover all of the DLs/demotions of the last few days (sidenote: if you see someone listed on the big league roster below, but throwing meatballs in Triple-A, please leave a comment). But, whoa, A.J. Preller just downloaded his latest copy of Out of the Park Baseball 16 and needed to make some big splashes after importing his already crazy offseason from OOTP15 (more sidenotes: OOTP is like another level of crack if you like this site).

• Craig Kimbrel is packing his bags and heading to San Diego. While he’s far and away the marquee name scrolling across your Twitter feed, his value actually doesn’t change that much (relative to how high up on the trending list he is, at least). In San Diego, the righty phenom will move to a better park with a better team. That’s good. But when you strike out nearly four out of every ten batters you face, park effects aren’t enormous. That said, it is almost impossible to find a negative in this deal for Kimbrel’s value (he’s not facing the Phillies as much?), so those of you who drafted him as baseball’s number one closer are pretty happy about this change of scenery.

For the rest of the Padres bullpen, the trade completely tanks the value of Joaquin Benoit. Drafted him as your second closer? Whoops. Benoit should seamlessly transition from a mid-tier closer to a potentially top-tier holds man, but if your league doesn’t have a category that says “HLDs,” it is little solace for you. Perhaps bigger for super-deep leaguers, both Kevin Quackenbush and Brandon Maurer were optioned to Triple-A. I liked both as sneaky-good peripheral potential 2nd-half closers, but barring Kimbrel’s arm exploding in a ball of fire, that dream is dead.

• So who is going to take over in Atlanta? Well, if you’re in a standard league, I may not burn valuable draftees trying to scoop up Jason Grilli or Jim Johnson, both of whom may see save opportunities for one of baseball’s worst teams (if they aren’t MLB’s punching bag already). Grilli has been a favorite of mine over the last few years, but saw large declines in both his strikeout rate and SwStr% in 2014. His fastball velocity declined less than 0.5 mph, but the heater still dropped nearly a full run in linear weights (per 100 pitches). However, there’s no reason to think he couldn’t be moderately successful if he put up another low 3.00’s SIERA like he did last year (3.28) but he needs to keep age regression at bay.

Johnson also appears a former closer in the land of misfit relievers. After substantially outpitching his peripherals in 2013 and 2014, the wheels came off the wormburning bandwagon after a pre-season trade to Oakland. Johnson’s batted ball line (20%/58%/22%, LD/GB/FB) was remarkably identical last season (compared to 2014), but his free pass rate doubled from 6.2% to 13.3%. Approaching Carlos Marmol territory, his SIERA ballooned to 4.33. The good news for Johnson? Aside from his batted ball profile staying the same, his velocity has only declined slightly, implying that if he can find his control, he might be able to get back half of what he was a few years ago. Both veterans are huge gambles on a team destined to lose a lot of games. If you are in a deep league and are already save hunting, go Grilli first, but feel free to grab Johnson if you have the room. There is no obvious flamethrowing youngster behind them right now (not to say their won’t be), so those in dynasty leagues could at least think about Shae Simmons, but Tommy John surgery in February clouds his future.

• Some late moves: As mentioned above, Quackenbush and Maurer are headed to Triple-A. They would likely be the two best relievers on at least a few major league teams. Casey Janssen formally hit the disabled list in Washington, but he team seems to think he’ll be back in a couple weeks. While I am intrigued by Blake Treinen, Janssen would be the handcuff to Drew Storen if he proves he’s healthy. Sean Marshall hit the 60-day disabled list with a torn labrum. It’s sad, but I think there’s a real chance he’s thrown his last major league pitch. Dominic Leone was demoted to Triple-A on Friday. The righty was a trendy young, high-upside RP pick earlier this spring, but gave up 17 hits and only struck out five in seven innings this spring. He’ll have some time to work through his issues on the farm; perhaps we’ll be talking about him later in the season.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]