Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

Both sites are very different on this slate because of pricing, but the overall slate is such that there are no truly great aces. Without ownership data, we’ll focus more on matchups to narrow our pool:

TIER ONE: KINDA’ ACES — Peralta and Ohtani

Freddy Peralta is the best pitcher on the slate, but he’s projected at only 75 pitches coming off of the IL. This doesn’t take him out of play if there’s an ownership gap between him and Ohtani that supplies us leverage. If Peralta is rolling — translation: throwing strikes — then, 75 pitches can get us some game depth to compile Ks with his elite K/9. His ceiling is capped at under 30 points, but his median projection might be good enough if we can get 15-to-20 from our SP2, as well.

Read the rest of this entry »

NEW FEATURE ALERT! We have added an upgraded version of RosterResource’s Closer Depth Chart to FanGraphs. Read more about it here.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

The 2021 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News 
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)
Read the rest of this entry »

Read first before freaking out

I started digging into pitch velocities and documented everyone who has changed. Two trends immediately appeared. The overall velocities were down and a few pitchers experienced major drops.

Normally in Spring Training, teams build a pitcher up to their maximum velocity and then start increasing the innings. At this point, all starters should have been ramped up to a full workload with their next start being in the regular season. Many don’t seem ready.

First off, I’m a little suspect of the velocity reading. Back in 2017, MLB installed new pitch-tracking systems and the velocities were high. A new system has been installed (Hawkeye) so something will likely be off. It is the MLB who can’t find a home for a team and decides to expand the playoffs with the season starting … that day. MLB going to MLB.

A second possible cause could the unique ramp up to the 2020 season. Teams have implemented different approaches to keeping their pitchers ready. Some of the velocities are down 5 mph from two separate parks. Maybe the pitchers are still worn down from the long postseason and four-month quarantine. Of the cameras are off. Or both.

Fastball velocities are down for a reason, but the cause(s) remains unknown. Fantasy owners need to remain calm and hopefully, in a few days, the truth will be known.
Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• Sounds like there is a slim chance Jo Adell makes the Opening Day roster.

It seemed in March that Adell’s chances of making the opening day roster were slim. Returning to triple-A to iron out his approach might have been the more prudent move.

After months of speculation, the minor league season officially was canceled Tuesday, so Adell won’t have the luxury of closing gaps in his development in a normal game setting. But the Angels hope the competitions they organize within their player pool provide Adell the opportunity to make strides.

“That’s what we’re hopeful for … There’s some upside to the intrasquad format,” Eppler said. “We’ll just have to keep getting him at-bats. There’s going to be talented pitchers over there for him to face and we’ll go from there.”

Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve completed two 15-team, 50-player draft-and-hold leagues and started two more. While I feel I have a decent understanding of the player pool, after pick 500 I’m unfamiliar with many of the players being drafted. This series will rectify that for me and hopefully other owners can find it useful.

To find the names, I just started working my way down the NFBC ADP list until I said “Who?” As I found out diving into the players, I don’t know may of the young prospects. And backup catchers. And middle relievers. Besides the who players

James Karinchak
CLE
P
476 ADP

I missed those five great major league innings at the season’s end. While he’s always been able to strikeout about 1.5 batters per inning, his walk rate hovers around 6.0 BB/9. There is a chance he could close but I think he needs Brad Hand and Nick Wittgren to get hurt and/or suck. And also probably Oliver Perez and Emmanuel Clase. I’m going to pass.

Read the rest of this entry »

Since I’m starting drafts, I decided I needed projections for seven of the players signing from Asia, either new to the MLB or returning. I could just pull a ranking out of my ass, but I figured I should at least start with a projection before inserting my own biases. For the following projections, I averaged the ZiPS and Clay Davenport projections and then add my own playing time adjustment.

Pitchers

Pierce Johnson
From the NRB
Signed with the Padres

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time to empty my notes and start clean for the new year. A “Mining the News” almost came out before the holiday break, so some notes are dated but still applicable.

• Nomar Mazara owners shouldn’t be counting on fulltime at-bats from him next season since he’ll likely be on the strong side of a platoon.

In 574 plate appearances against southpaws, Mazara features a below pedestrian line of .231/.272/.361 to go with 15 homers, 19 double and 68 RBIs. Manager Rick Renteria expressed hope in getting Mazara going against left-handers, but as it stands now, Mazara could get the bulk of playing time vs. righties with someone such as switching-hitting Leury García facing lefties.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Kyle Gibson spent most of last reason dealing with several long-term illnesses.

Then came E. coli and ulcerative colitis.

“In Spring Training we found the right medication,” Gibson said. “I was feeling strong when the season started. Then, I think whether it was the stress to the season or my diet changes, eating on the road and stuff, about mid-May, it started getting worse and the symptoms started creeping back in.

“The hardest part was just before the All-Star break. I wasn’t sleeping well. I was getting up with a bloated stomach and gas and having to go to the bathroom five or six times a night. Right at the beginning of September, I told our trainers I can’t do this anymore.”

Gibson spent 10 days on the injured list. He was on the Twins postseason roster against the Yankees, but was not given a starting assignment. He reached out to others for help. He spoke with Jake Diekman, the former Rangers reliever who spent much of his adult life dealing with ulcerative colitis until finally having multiple surgeries in 2017.

Gibson is a nice upside play with the health issues taken care of.
Read the rest of this entry »

Some team was going to end up with Anthony Rendon and after missing out on the Gerrit Cole sweepstakes, the Angels ponied up and signed Rendon. It’s a simple signing and here how the various players see their fantasy values change.

Anthony Rendon (down)

From 2016 to 2018, Rendon was about the same hitter with between 20 and 24 home runs, .270 to .308 AVG, and never breaking a 190 Runs+RBI. He just destroyed those numbers last season with 34 homers, a .319 AVG, and 243 Runs+RBIs. With nothing changing in his hitting profile (plate discipline and batted ball stats), the career season can be based on a little luck but mainly the happy fun ball which is back for another season.

The change in scenery factors seem to point to his value going down a bit. The park factors between Washington DC and Orange County are about the same. The division opponents are a mix of competitive and non-competitive teams. The biggest difference will be the lineup quality. Even with a DH, the Angels averaged 4.75 runs per game last season and the Nationals were at 5.4 runs per game. Even though the best player in baseball will be in the Angels lineup, it’s a huge downgrade for Rendon. While the juiced ball will keep his home runs up, the Runs+RBI total should be around 200 to 210 instead of 240.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Rays and Brewers have swapped players with the Rays getting first baseman Jesus Aguilar and the Brewers adding reliever Jake Faria. Here’s my take on who gains the most value from now to end-of-season in redraft leagues.

Travis Shaw/Eric Thames: Not sure what is going on here. The Brewers are left with two left-handed bats for the first base job. I think both become two-thirds time plays with both splitting time at first and Thames playing in the outfield especially with Ryan Braun needing rest Lorenzo Cain getting banged up. Shaw could play around the infield once a week as he did before his demotion.

Read the rest of this entry »