RotoGraphs June Consensus Ranks: Shortstop

Whoo boy. What a turd of a position.

Sure, in the shallower leagues, you’re okay. There’s about 5-10 shortstops that I want to have and another seven or so that look okay to me. If you waited and picked Dee Gordon (or got him off waivers), congrats. Alexei Ramirez was another great late pick. Jimmy Rollins is resurgent. It looks like a good Alcides Escobar year — not a bad one at least.

But if you spent an early pick on anyone not named Troy Tulowitzki, you’re hurting a bit. Hanley Ramirez seems to be waiving .300 goodbye, and injuries seem like they’ll be a problem going forward. I’ve continued to believe in Jean Segura all along, all through those terrible-looking at-bats, and he’s turning it around some (but doesn’t look like early 2013 Segura). Ian Desmond… it turned out he *was* a risk. Everth Cabrera returned to his pre-Biogenisis contact rate, perhaps.

And the young crowd hasn’t quite established themselves yet. Xander Bogaerts is showing some signs of life. Chris Owings hit a homer and looks like he might be cromulent. Andrelton Simmons is making contact like nobody. Brad Miller may have survived the onslaught on his job, things have looked up a bit recently. None is ready to be an elite shortstop right now.

Who’d you end up with?

Again, this is for 5×5 roto, and though Jeff Zimmerman mostly uses the rest of season projections, it’s not just a computer ranking. We’ve left off the color coding in favor of a simple up or down arrow — those arrows are only next to big movers. The table is designed to be sortable in case you prefer one of the rankings.

RG name Jeff Zach Mike Eno
1 Troy Tulowitzki 1 1 1 1
2 Hanley Ramirez 5 2 2 3
3 Jean Segura 3 3 4 2
4 Ian Desmond 2 4 3 4
5 Jose Reyes 6 6 6 5
6 Elvis Andrus 4 11 5 6
7 Alexei Ramirez 7 5 11 7
8 Everth Cabrera 9 7 8 8
9 Starlin Castro 8 8 10 10
10 Dee Gordon 15 12 9 9
11 Xander Bogaerts 13 10 13 11
12 Jimmy Rollins 12 15 14 14
13 Ben Zobrist 20 16 7 13
14 Alcides Escobar 18 9 21 12
15 J.J. Hardy 16 14 12 19
16 Erick Aybar 11 13 19 21
17 Jed Lowrie 22 17 15 17
18 Jonathan Villar 10 23 16 23
19 Asdrubal Cabrera 17 22 18 16
20 Andrelton Simmons 21 21 17 15
21 Chris Owings 19 19 23 18
22 Jhonny Peralta 23 18 22 22
23 Brad Miller 14 32 20 20
24 Stephen Drew 36 20 16 24
25 Yunel Escobar 26 26 25 25
26 Derek Jeter 31 27 24 27
27 Brandon Crawford 30 24 29 26
28 Zack Cozart 24 29 26 33
29 Mike Aviles 25 25 35 34
30 Jordy Mercer 32 33 27 28
31 Adeiny Hechavarria 27 28 32 35
32 Josh Rutledge 28 41 34 29
33 Eduardo Escobar 29 30 39 36
34 Eric Sogard 34 41 30 30
35 Alexi Amarista 35 41 38 31
36 Andrew Romine 33 41 31 41
37 Ruben Tejada 41 36 37 32
38 Logan Forsythe 41 41 28 38
39 Ryan Flaherty 38 41 33 41
40 Pedro Florimon 39 41 36 41
41 Eduardo Nunez 40 41 41 37

Ranked by one analyst: Didi Gregorius, Daniel Descalso, Chris Taylor, Addison Russell, Cliff Pennington, Pedro Ciriaco, and Francisco Lindor.




Print This Post

Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


32 Responses to “RotoGraphs June Consensus Ranks: Shortstop”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. yosoyfiesta says:

    Xander is surely a top 10 SS RoS. He’s got power and he’ll hit for average, BP comps to Tulo are looking less and less far-fetched. Segura has less pop, worse average, but he runs. Cabrera is a poor man’s Segura because the production numbers just won’t be there. Dee Gordon is a one trick pony, and though it’s a good trick, that BABIP regression doesn’t lie. Andrus is still fooling people into thinking he’s decent? Xander is the man and Tulo apparently rules Mount Olympus.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • ErnestoSalvaderi says:

      Segura and Andrus are the same player except Andrus walks more and Segura may have very slightly more power.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Jack says:

    Eno,
    I know this is the SS post but I wanted you to look at this before you post 1B.

    Loved you piece on “Happy” Micahel Morse so much that I’m thinking about trading for him in my 10-team H2H league using OBP. The key assumption to my trade is that Pujols is only slightly better than Morse. According to Heatmaps, Morse average flyball=320 ft (4th highest in MLB and 35’ more than last year) with a high angle whereas Pujols=278 (trending down even during this year) with medium angle. Morse has a better ISO, LD and IFFB rate though Pujols does hit a few more flyballs.

    My trade is my Pujols and Donaldson for his Cargo, Harper and Morse. I think Cargo and Harper are both back in a month performing normally. My team is strong enough to survive the month and easily make the playoffs where, if my assumptions are correct, I’ll have easily the best team on paper.

    Your thoughts?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • centerfield ballhawk says:

      I’m not Eno… but why in the world would you trade Josh Donaldson away for an oft – injured CarGo, a currently injured Harper and Morse? Donaldson is arguably the best third baseman in baseball right now. Why not just deal away Pujols and get Morse and a nice starting pitcher in return? Just my two cents.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • mymaus says:

        Thanks for your response. The important assumptions for me are:

        Cargo and Harper return to “normal” healthy production AND

        Pujols is not much more valuable than Morse ROS

        Another factor is that my H2H league counts errors and having R. Zimmerman and Donaldson both playing is going to hurt. I’d like to trade Zim, but I don’t think I’ll get any value for at least 3-4 weeks. In the meantime, by my theory, Pujols value will continue to drop.

        I have the best pitching staff in the league so I don’t need pitching.

        I think IF you buy into my assumptions, this trade definitely improves my team.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • cs3 says:

        lol at your “assumptions”.
        Trade away the best fantasy 3B to date for 2 guys are currently on the DL with no real timtable to return yet, and another who will inevitably be on the DL at some point in the future?

        This is a great trade – for the other guy.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • mymaus says:

        Good points but my assumptions (which are not outlandish) are that they are back in a month. It was announced in the last couple of days that they expect Harper back by 7/1 (sooner than a month). Cargo has a jammed finger (not like the ligament damage he had last year). I’d be surprised if he needs more than a month.

        Eno’s interview with Morse says he feels injury free for the first time in a long time and I’d definitely take his health as compared to Pujols.

        The other thing (that I didn’t mention) is that I’m in a H2H DAILY league, so if either Cargo or Harper is out, I can fill in with a player off my bench. I think I have built a strong enough team to get in the playoffs even if they only play 1/2 the time. Where this trade would win or lose for me is really the last 3 weeks of the regular season.

        To top it all off…Morse just hit his 13th HR just now.

        I know it’s a risk but unless you’re in a league with managers who don’t know what they are doing, every trade is to one degree or another.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Brian says:

    Any ranking that has Jean Segura ahead of Hanley Ramirez ROS is absolutely nuts.

    Segura is hitting .272/.302/.352 with 11 sb and 2hr. He hit barely better last year, and never hit better than that above A in the minors. He might start running again, but his 3.1% BB rate isn’t good.

    Hanley is hitting .257/.338/.463 with 9 hr and 5 sb, so you’re getting the same category juice with better slash lines. Hanley hits at the top of a great lineup, and even if you don’t believe the best is yet to come with him (although I do) his long track record demonstrates, even in down years, better performance than Segura’s best.

    ZiPS and Steamer also agree, Hanley way ahead of Segura. I never understood the Segura love. I probably have him behind Bogaerts, Desmond and Reyes too.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      I only looked at AVG, the rest of the line doesn’t matter at all.

      Using ROS numbers. AVG is a push. RBI+Runs = +12 for Hanley

      HR + SB (both have the same value) = +21 for Segura.

      If you don’t believe HR and SB are equal look at the mixed LABR league:

      http://www.rtsports.com/baseball/standings.php?LID=503843&UID=fantasybaseball

      and I am wrong. Each stolen base is worth significanly more more than one home run. 1.6 HR = 1 SB.

      Stolen bases are getting scarce and anyone projected for 35 more SB is huge.

      In real life Hanley is a better play. In the fantasy world, it is Segura IMO.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Emcee Peepants says:

        Jeff – why to high on Villar? He is a guy I liked in the preseason as a sleeper, but he has eaten a dick this year, to put it lightly, and does not have a particularly strong MiLB track record to suggest he can turn it around. Is it the valuation of SBs and moderate power, similar to your Segura explanation above?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jeff Zimmerman says:

        As Eno said, I use mainly projections and mainly only adjust for playing time issues. His AVG should improve and his HR and SB have been and project to be better than Jed Lowrie (who each other writer ranked higher).

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Brian says:

        In a 5×5, it’s closer, not that anybody plays 5×5 anymore.

        Regardless, Hanley is a .295/.358/.526 hitter as a Dodger with 61 R+RBI this year. Segura has 46 R+RBI.

        That’s +15 for Hanley, and on the HR+SB measure, Hanley is +1 also. Go ahead, ding him for SB being more valuable, and it’s basically a push there.

        Hanley has done all this while underperforming so far. Segura, this is about all we can expect from him. Even in 5×5 I go with Hanley, plus cheap steals are easy for a good owner to find (Leonys Martin, Dee Gordon) while HR are impossible to add off the wire.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jeff Zimmerman says:

        Which one of these numbers looks out of place:
        .243
        .257
        .345
        .253

        I just don’t see his AVG talent level being at .295.

        We can just agree to disagree.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Brian says:

        Funny that you would choose to start that list when you did…

        .332
        .301
        .342
        .300
        .243
        .257
        .345
        .253

        Now which ones look out of place? Well… frankly… all of them.

        Split the baby and you get his career average of .299, or his last 5 year average of .279, or his last 3 year average of .280. It’s awfully gamey to just say his .345 is an outlier.

        Good talk!

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Eno Sarris says:

        Projections systems generally don’t go back more than four years for a reason.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jason B says:

        To be fair, there’s nothing magic about a 4-season based projection; likely could be three or five just as easily and be as predictive.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Eno Sarris says:

        You can include the fifth year, but the weighting on it, compared to the last year or two will be tiny. marcel goes 5/3/2 so you’d be looking at weighting the fifth year .5/12.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Not Ed Wade says:

        I think there is a slight flaw in the SB projection, which seems to be at the crux of his helium ranking.

        1. SB’s are at some level linked to OBP. You have to be on to steal. Segura has demonstrated a barely average ability to get on base for the sum of his major league career.

        2. Segura has usage risk as well. How long is a major league team going to use a guy with a sub-300 OBP in the leadoff spot. If he’s dropped past the 5 hole, you have to pull back his counting stats, owing to the reduction in PAs. A particularly negative feedback loop results.

        But ok, let’s say that we regress the walk rate along with his BABIP and, poof, the OBP inflates by 20 points.

        3. When on, you have to be given the green light. Segura is 11 for 17 (65%), which suggests that there is some risk that he doesn’t get the opportunity to freelance on the basepaths as much. I guess the counter is that the Brewers are among the worst in SB% so far, yet remain in the top third for chances taken.

        Idk, I get that this is probably much closer than it looks on the surface and, indeed this is what buy low looks like, but man, gun to my head, I’d rather lay down with someone who at least has owned the OBP skill in the past. Great things can happen when you’re on base.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • ErnestoSalvaderi says:

        I’m having a harder time seeing how Segura is tangibly better than Elvis Andrus. Their numbers over the last calender year are nearly identical.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • hebrew says:

      Gotta agree here. I’m a Segura owner in a 20-team OBP/SLG keeper league. he’s a 12th round keeper next year, which is his only source of value.

      I’m seriously considering sending him off in a deal to acquire Nelson Cruz and replacing him with Asdrubal. All i’d lose is 10-15 steals over the course of the year and all the other stats are comparable. How could Cabrera be 15 spots behind Segura?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Andrew says:

    How long have these charts been sortable by ranker? I just noticed, and it’s pretty fantastic.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Roger says:

    For a dynasty 5×5, who do you like better as a long-term fantasy SS, Xander Bogaerts or Addison Russell?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. J!m Future says:

    I get the feeling Owings could rapidly climb these rankings RoS, if only Gibson would stop looking for reasons to sit him/bat him in the bottom third.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Emcee Peepants says:

    I was going through Desmond’s stats looking for signs of progress (which are there, drop in K rate, increase in BB rate and ISO in May) and noticed this quirk:

    April BABIP – .301 April AVG – .232
    May BABIP – .242 May AVG – .229

    I just thought it was interesting and wasn’t sure what to make of it (other than it likely being a result of 6 of his 22 hits being HR in May).

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. coco krispie says:

    Xander or Bogaerts rest of season in an OBP league?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. coco krispie says:

    Sorry, I mean Xander or Oscar Taveras ROS OBP league and next few years?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Spa City says:

      Xander is (slightly) younger and has been producing at an All Star level in the majors since September. Oscar has been an inferior player in the minors. Xander qualifies at SS and 3B, while Oscar is an OFer. Unless CFers are treated differently than corner OFers in your league, Taveras is easier to replace than Xander.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. samyoung says:

    Where would Solarte rank if eligible? Teens?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. Anonymous says:

    How about Danny Santana? He qualifies at SS in my league.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>