RotoGraphs June Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitcher

Starting pitching is so tough to evaluate. First, you get massive amounts of information every five days, but each of those bursts of information is tied to a single park or team and is so context dependent. Second, there are only five starting slots, and if you’re the sixth-best starting pitcher on your team, you’re outta luck.

That last part is really the reason for the delay on these rankings. Tony Cingrani was a starting pitcher yesterday and we were about to pub the rankings — and then news came out that Mat Latos would take his slot this week. Now Cingrani is suddenly among the prospects — who are impossible to project given their uncertain role — and waiting for Alfredo Simon to pumpkin or Latos to hurt again. That’s not great for his ranking.

At some point you have to pull the plug on all the emails and put the rankings out. There’s going to be news tomorrow about an injury, and you’ll have to move that pitcher down mentally in your head.

And, man, is this a volatile list or what. Danny Salazar dropped 106 spots in the rankings! Trevor Cahill might get his spot back, but in the meantime he dropped 55 places in the rankings! Clay Buchholz is down 64! The biggest previously-ranked risers were Johnny Cueto (34), Corey Kluber (38), Scott Kazmir (35), Garret Richards (53), and Yordano Ventura (37), all guys I own everywhere. Wait, no, I was just pointing out your hot young studs. Wait, no, that sounds bad too.

Pitchers — enjoy them like I do. (Damn.)

Again, this is for rest of season 5×5 roto, and though Jeff Zimmerman mostly uses the rest of season projections, it’s not just a computer ranking. We’ve left off the color coding in favor of a simple up or down arrow — those arrows are only next to big movers from their preseason position. The table is designed to be sortable in case you prefer one of the rankings.

RG Name Jeff Zach Mike Eno
1 Clayton Kershaw 1 1 1 1
2 Felix Hernandez 2 2 4 2
3 Yu Darvish 4 6 2 3
4 Adam Wainwright 9 3 3 4
5 Max Scherzer 3 5 7 8
6 Chris Sale 7 8 5 6
7 Masahiro Tanaka 12 4 8 5
8 Stephen Strasburg 8 9 6 7
9 Madison Bumgarner 5 10 9 9
10 Zack Greinke 10 7 11 10
11 David Price 6 14 10 15
12 Anibal Sanchez 15 12 16 13
13 Johnny Cueto 17 11 28 11
14 Cole Hamels 13 22 21 20
15 Julio Teheran 20 13 38 12
16 Corey Kluber 33 18 12 22
17 Jon Lester 14 17 39 16
18 Michael Wacha 27 19 25 18
19 Hisashi Iwakuma 26 15 23 26
20 Jordan Zimmermann 19 41 15 17
21 James Shields 21 29 20 27
22 Alex Cobb 35 16 22 25
23 Hyun-Jin Ryu 32 20 27 19
24 Jeff Samardzija 23 21 32 23
25 Justin Verlander 11 57 14 24
26 Cliff Lee 16 66 13 14
27 Sonny Gray 37 27 26 21
28 Jered Weaver 28 31 19 34
29 Doug Fister 24 24 34 30
30 Gio Gonzalez 42 25 18 32
31 Ian Kennedy 18 36 42 29
32 Mike Minor 30 23 44 33
33 Scott Kazmir 45 28 24 35
34 C.J. Wilson 25 37 35 39
35 Homer Bailey 34 56 17 31
36 John Lackey 29 33 41 42
37 Matt Cain 40 40 31 40
38 Andrew Cashner 38 38 47 36
39 Gerrit Cole 53 34 50 28
40 Ervin Santana 31 64 36 37
41 Shelby Miller 39 68 43 41
42 Hiroki Kuroda 44 74 29 47
43 Dan Haren 47 44 52 51
44 Lance Lynn 36 77 33 49
45 Tim Hudson 54 45 53 43
46 Kyle Lohse 60 30 56 53
47 Mat Latos 101 17 59 41
48 Dallas Keuchel 105 26 51 38
49 Nathan Eovaldi 86 35 55 48
50 Zack Wheeler 48 55 71 52
51 Marco Estrada 80 43 46 59
52 Chris Archer 52 51 72 54
53 Jaime Garcia 66 48 48 68
54 Francisco Liriano 22 92 49 72
55 Rick Porcello 68 52 58 57
56 Jesse Chavez 81 32 82 45
57 Matt Garza 62 69 40 71
58 Justin Masterson 41 78 54 70
59 Tyson Ross 76 47 60 61
60 Garrett Richards 79 53 68 44
61 R.A. Dickey 51 84 30 81
62 Jose Quintana 61 65 65 55
63 Tim Lincecum 43 80 45 83
64 Phil Hughes 71 49 74 58
65 Drew Hutchison 97 42 67 50
66 Yordano Ventura 85 59 75 46
67 Josh Beckett 95 76 37 62
68 Jason Hammel 73 61 63 74
69 Jon Niese 75 54 73 76
70 Drew Smyly 72 91 66 60
71 Tyler Skaggs 58 94 70 69
72 A.J. Burnett 57 85 79 73
73 Gavin Floyd 87 62 61 86
74 Yovani Gallardo 59 86 59 93
75 Ubaldo Jimenez 49 79 84 95
76 Collin McHugh 135 39 78 56
77 Wily Peralta 116 50 81 65
78 Tommy Milone 63 88 87 84
79 Tanner Roark 84 71 77 91
80 Aaron Harang 83 58 94 89
81 Roenis Elias 103 60 95 67
82 Mike Leake 74 63 121 75
83 Travis Wood 67 87 105 77
84 Wade Miley 55 97 88 99
85 Mark Buehrle 92 46 113 90
86 Bartolo Colon 56 73 103 111
87 Marcus Stroman 89 89 76 98
88 Wei-Yin Chen 64 83 89 117
89 Drew Pomeranz 99 95 97 63
90 Brandon McCarthy 77 135 57 87
91 Tony Cingrani 46 126 101 94
92 Jason Vargas 98 82 110 78
93 Jake Peavy 69 147 62 92
94 Trevor Bauer 151 72 69 79
95 Taijuan Walker 90 70 119 101
96 Chris Tillman 78 102 85 118
97 CC Sabathia 50 111 115 109
98 Henderson Alvarez 104 75 109 104
99 Dillon Gee 132 131 64 66
100 Charlie Morton 100 108 80 110
101 Ryan Vogelsong 115 67 96 122
102 Derek Holland 82 110 128 88
103 Jake Odorizzi 94 119 92 106
104 Kevin Gausman 118 113 91 97
105 Chase Whitley 151 114 90 64
106 Miguel Gonzalez 96 99 106 127
107 Bud Norris 112 98 107 113
108 Edwin Jackson 70 117 118 126
109 Chase Anderson 145 106 100 80
110 Jorge de la Rosa 125 104 83 120
111 Josh Tomlin 120 100 111 114
112 Danny Duffy 133 96 133 85
113 Jenrry Mejia 65 151 151 96
114 Rubby de la Rosa 151 127 93 103
115 Jake Arrieta 108 116 138 112
116 Ricky Nolasco 102 144 86 143
117 Bronson Arroyo 109 123 99 144
118 Josh Collmenter 93 109 151 125
119 David Phelps 140 81 131 132
120 Andrew Heaney 123 105 151 107
121 James Paxton 147 146 112 82
122 Edinson Volquez 128 122 116 124
123 Alex Meyer 91 150 151 100
124 Felix Doubront 114 129 122 128
125 Jacob deGrom 149 134 102 108
126 Robbie Erlin 107 137 151 105
127 Rafael Montero 106 125 151 121
128 Alfredo Simon 131 93 134 146
129 Michael Pineda 146 138 104 116
130 Danny Salazar 101 151 151 102
131 Erik Bedard 138 139 98 131
132 Yusmeiro Petit 88 151 151 119
133 Kyle Kendrick 141 103 123 151
134 Chris Young 151 107 125 137
135 Scott Feldman 129 133 108 150
136 Clay Buchholz 126 151 114 130
137 Zach McAllister 121 132 120 149
138 Eric Stults 119 151 126 129
139 Jordan Lyles 151 90 151 135
140 Colby Lewis 124 142 139 123
141 Juan Nicasio 136 101 140 151
142 Jhoulys Chacin 130 124 130 151
143 Kyle Gibson 151 136 135 115
144 Jarred Cosart 151 115 137 134
145 Brandon Workman 142 120 151 133
146 Jeff Locke 111 151 136 151
147 Bruce Chen 127 151 127 151
148 Trevor Cahill 110 151 151 145
149 Roberto Hernandez 139 151 117 151
150 Tom Koehler 151 112 144 151
151 Jeremy Guthrie 151 118 141 151
152 Noah Syndergaard 151 121 151 139
153 J.A. Happ 137 151 129 151
154 Randy Wolf 134 140 151 151
155 Jimmy Nelson 151 141 151 136
156 Nicholas Martinez 151 130 151 147
157 Brett Anderson 150 128 151 151
158 Archie Bradley 151 149 151 141


Ranked by one analyst: John Danks, Hector Santiago, Brad Peacock, Kevin Correia, Franklin Morales, Carlos Villanueva, Carlos Carrasco, Tim Stauffer, Matt Shoemaker, Jonathan Gray, Matt Wisler, Joe Kelly, Brandon Cumpton, T.J. House, Tyler Chatwood, Eddie Butler, and Allen Webster.



Print This Post

With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Legion of Boom
Guest
Legion of Boom

Mike has Lee-13, Verlander-14,Gio -18,Dickey-30 and Tehran-38? What 5 cats is he using?

Mike Podhorzer
Admin
Member

Rest of season rankings. What a pitcher’s current ERA is means nothing to me when projecting his ERA going forward. I focus on the underlying skills and career history.

I Like Baseball Sports
Guest
I Like Baseball Sports

It seems odd to me that you think Dickey will perform better than Teheran, though. I get that Teheran’s ERA should probably go up, but it doesn’t seem like Dickey has many advantages over Teheran at this point in their respective careers. What did I miss? (not trying to be snarky here, just trying to learn as much as possible from you guys).

wjylaw
Member
wjylaw

That just seems in large part stupid. Doesn’t his past ERA this season make up some of his career history and isn’t it a glimpse of his current skill set to some degree? And please, save the small sample size argument.

I Like Baseball Sports
Guest
I Like Baseball Sports

I wouldn’t say it was stupid (he had an outstanding run for a couple years, after all), but it’s hard to ignore that Teheran’s been fantastic ever since the end of April ’13. He’s still a young, developing pitcher, and has the pedigree to support the steps forward he’s taken since ’12. I mean, Dickey’s rise to success was so striking because of it’s improbability. He had a long history as a mediocre pitcher before riding a circus pitch to an incredible three-year run… and now he’s on the verge of hitting 40 and has seen his control worsen for the 2nd straight year. I just don’t get it. The blossoming 23-yr old former top-prospect seems like the obvious pick here.

Ace2000
Member
Ace2000

Respectfully, I don’t really see the appeal of Dickey. He’s basically been a mediocre fantasy pitcher since arriving in Toronto; his past success came in a very different run scoring environment. (And now he’s 39, too.) He has a 4.20 ERA and 4.55 FIP so far in 2014, after posting a 4.21 ERA and 4.58 FIP last year. I think that’s just the reality of what he is in the AL East.

I Like Baseball Sports
Guest
I Like Baseball Sports

Agreed, Ace.

Matthew Murphy
Member

Teheran has been good, but he has just over 300 career innings with roughly a 3.00 ERA but with a league-average FIP (3.79) and xFIP (3.88). His strikeout rate is just league average, which isn’t a problem in itself, but without the strikeouts to fall back on, you’re really relying on him to continue to outpace his peripherals by a significant margin in order for him to be a top-15-20 pitcher the rest of the season.
Last point – among qualified pitchers, Teheran ranks 45th in FIP, 59th in xFIP, 47th in SIERA, and 41st in K%. Don’t think it’s that crazy to rank him in the 30s.

I Like Baseball Sports
Guest
I Like Baseball Sports

Oh yea, Matthew, I’m not saying Teheran’s placement is crazy, and I didn’t mean to pick on Mike, just didn’t see how he’d be ranked lower than Dickey. Honestly, Mike seems to be right 9/10 times (he’s steered my fantasy team in the right direction many times), so that’s really the only reason I wanted to ask about his thoughts on Dickey over Teheran. I might not have thought much about it if it was anyone else.

But, I mean Dickey had over 400 ‘meh’ innings before he went on a tear with the Mets, no? If the degradation in control of his knuckler continues the trend of the past year and half, there’s lots and lots of data to suggest he doesn’t have the stuff to make up for it. Just wondering what it was that made him think he’d go back to producing like he did in 2012.

I Like Baseball Sports
Guest
I Like Baseball Sports

I might try and trade Teheran for Dickey and change if there’s something there.

wpDiscuz