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Triple to HR ratio

(5 posts)
  1. Zachary Klaas
    Member

    I was wondering whether anyone had ever written something sabermetric-ish about the career ratio of triples to home runs for selected players.

    The person who posted a while back about Sam Crawford got me thinking about this...since Crawford was (and still remains) the all-time career leader in triples.

    Crawford had 309 triples in his career, which is way under the 762 home runs Barry Bonds has...which might superficially lead one to the bizarre statistical conclusion that it's harder to hit a triple than a home run, despite the fact that home runs are so much more useful in terms of winning ball games. (Home runs are about par with doubles, as Tris Speaker has the record with 792, and singles are much easier, with Pete Rose having 3215 of those.)

    Of course, we're all aware that there were eras in baseball history where home runs were harder to hit, and where legging out a triple became much more of a valued activity. The deadball era from baseball's founding to the end of the 1910s were the highwater mark for this sort of thing. Teams ran more (stolen bases were through the roof) and the power hitters on the team tended to hit more triples than home runs.

    What I'm wondering is, has anyone written up something that might use the ratio of triples to home runs characteristic for an era (say, 1900-1919) as a way of projecting how many home runs that player might have hit in another era?

    Something along these lines...suppose we had an era where people normally hit 3 triples for every 1 homer. But Joe Player from that era hit 2 triples for every 1 homer. That suggests that Joe Player was heavier on the homers than he should have been for that era, and thus would have hit somewhat more homers than would be normal for a live ball era as well. But Bob Player hit 4 triples for every 1 homer. That was even more triple-happy than was normal for the era, so in a live ball era, it would be expected that this player would still be more focused on triples than the long ball, even if he started to hit a few more homers because of the new liveness to the ball.

    (Gary Player would still be playing golf and would not be relevant to the example, of course.)

    I think that would be an interesting thing to look at, because the big triple hitters in history were disproportionately from the dead ball era, but there were a couple who were not. Stan Musial and Roberto Clemente, for example, played in the live ball era, but hit a number of triples characteristic of players who relied upon triples much more heavily. Both Musial and Clemente hit more home runs than they did triples, but their ratio of triples to homers even so would be much more weighted towards triples than is normal for their homer-happy eras. So perhaps if they played in the age of Wahoo Sam, they might have racked up somewhere in his neighborhood of triples?

    Probably some people would like to take this sort of projection the other way, though...to ask how many homers Wahoo Sam or some of the other dead ball era types might have had.

    Posted 3 months ago #
  2. Zachary Klaas
    Member

    I actually looked at this kind of stat...it was one of those things that provided some interesting information about the players, but also lots of information about the insufficient nature of this kind of stat.

    On the one hand, using a player triple-to-HR or HR-to-triple conversion based on what was a normal triple-to-HR or HR-to-triple ratio for MLB suggests that, for example, a Ty Cobb might have hit 20 homers under modern conditions, or that a Roger Maris might have hit 20 homers under dead-ball era conditions.

    On the other hand, the stat gets really freaky when one considers the case of a player with a very low triple-to-HR ratio (such as Babe Ruth in 1927...8 triples to 60 homers) for a year where the MLB ratio was high (in 1927, 1150 triples to 922 homers). Since the Babe hit vastly more homers in comparison with triples than was normal for 1927, a conversion to modern times, where triples are very rare and homers plentiful, will make it seem like the Babe could have hit 200 homers...which is clearly absurdly high.

    It's really only the Babe that this is a major problem for, because triples were still a normal part of the game in the 1920s for everyone except Ruth and a handful of others. It's like the dead ball era did not end in 1919, except for a handful of sluggers, who were starting to play the game very differently.

    The other conversions I did tended to produce plausible results for this reason.

    Posted 3 months ago #
  3. lee
    Member

    Using Sam Crawford as an exemplar, a noted contact hitter very hard to K, we have the following dynamics affecting triples/home run ratios, dramatically:

    -in 1901 and 1902 Sam Crawford played for Cincinatti with the home field being "the Palace of the Fans," with these basic dimensions:

    LF: 368'
    CF: 426'
    RF: 450' ......... imagine the feast of a contact lefty in a dead ball era, a guy hitting with some suthority

    Going to Detroit, Crawford played at home in Navin Field:

    While not all A.L. parks were not cavernous to extremes, a dead ball had little chance to "get out" in such parks as:

    Hilltop Park [NY]: 365', 542', 400'
    Griffith Stadium 407', 421', 328'
    Sportsman's Park 368', 426', 335'

    Columbia Park: 290', 515', 340'

    League Park II: 385', 505', 290' [with 45' high chicken wire fencing to right-center], which was deeper

    Comiskey Park: 363', 420', 363'

    That Crawford averaged @ 7 HRs before 1911-12 shows he had some power, because it didn't take much more than that to lead the league. Although the live ball was introduced @ 1912, very few batters hiked up HR numbers [Cravath was one who did] until Ruth broke it wide open after Crawford's career had ended.

    With contact + hitting the ball where it was pitched being the primary commandments for hitters, pull hitting and 37 degree upward cuts were not the rule. The atmosphere was ripe for triples, not HRs.

    Posted 3 months ago #
  4. lee
    Member

    P.S. The reference above to Navin Field is actually in error. The same plot of real estate was first called Bennett Park or Bennett Field. Dimensions are estimated based on photographs; and the dimensions are estimated to have been:

    LF: 373', 392', 345'

    ... then a stint at Navin Field:

    345', 467', 370' [when it appears owners bought up adjoining real estate and expamded the park and its capacity. Still later - Briggs Stadium; but Crawford was gone by then.

    Posted 3 months ago #
  5. Zachary Klaas
    Member

    Yeah, those dimensions do have to be taken into consideration, for sure. A while back I had found an animation on the net (I'll have to look around for it when I have more time) showing how Ebbetts Field was changed over the years of its existence...basically it was a continuing progression of building bleachers and walls to eat up the massive amount of space in the outfield. The early Ebbetts Field was similarly cavernous, but the later version was a cozy little park.

    Posted 3 months ago #

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