This may seem odd, but Todd Coffey is one of my favorite relievers in baseball. I have this thing for middling, fringe-y relief pitcher -- Casey Fossum has stolen my heart -- and there's just so much of Coffey to love. How can you not love a teddy bear like him, especially considering he's an underrated asset? Read the rest of this entry »While living and teaching in the city of Savannah, Georgia, I found myself needing to keep up with the latest slang terminology to understand students on their level. Having just celebrated our first anniversary back in suburbia, my need to keep up with inner city dialect has dissipated, but one phrase still remains fresh in my mind and brings me to laughter when uttered. This phrase also describes Chicago Cubs Junior Lake's ability to play baseball to a tee. Per the Urban Dictionary, the phrase "hot mess" means, "When ones thoughts or appearance are in a state of disarray, but they maintain an undeniable attractiveness or beauty." When scouting Junior Lake during the Southern League playoffs, his game was part car wreck, but I simply could not help but be enamored with his tools. Rocket arm. Explosive hand speed. Plus runner. Other than the way he actually played baseball, there was nothing not to like. Read the rest of this entry »Baseball sometimes seems as if it is the most unchanging of the major sports. Maybe that is the case now, but as anyone (like me) with even a slight interest in baseball history knows, baseball has made changes in its rules many times over the years. That is part of the reason discussions about potential rule changes are interesting -- they not only stimulate the mind grapes, but also have a basis in the real history of the game. Moreover, some of the ideas are not necessarily new, but involve a hypothetical return to yesteryear. In the wake of the concerns about home run records being "tarnished" by PEDS and, horror of horrors, the designated hitter, it is worth remembering that the home run rules, like almost everything else, have not always been the same. Certain older rules cost some hitters home runs. However, some rules also gave players more home runs. It is the latter I want to discuss today as a possible rule change. What do you think? Would you be in favor of allowing what are not ground rule doubles to be ruled as home runs? Read the rest of this entry »After remaining relatively quiet all off-season, the Cleveland Indians have been busy in recent days. They signed Casey Kotchman to a one-year contract yesterday, and it appears they're working away at locking up their young shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera is a bit of an enigma. It's not that he's a dark and mysterious character -- although this leaves some room for debate -- but that his performance over the past few years makes him a difficult player to project. He had a down year in 2010 after breaking his arm early in the season, but he was a +3 win player in both 2011 and 2009. In both of those years, though, there were some questionable spikes in his stats; his 2009 performance was helped along by an unsustainable .360 BABIP, and his 2011 "breakout" was fueled by a dramatic increase in his homerun rate (13.3% HR/FB). Read the rest of this entry »This edition of the player-profile game is appearing at 11:30am Central Time because the author is an idiot.As announced Wednesday, FanGraphs will once again be offering to the public its fantasy companion guide, The Second Opinion. We'll have more details on the guide -- set to be released on Monday -- very shortly. In the meantime, however, we're playing the player-profile game I intoduced in these pages a couple offseasons ago. The game is easy: one person (me, in this case) offers the text of single player profile, being careful to omit any proper names that might reveal the identity of the player in question. The other person (you, the reader) attempts to identify the player using only the details provided in the profile. First reader to guess correctly (in the comments section below) gets a free copy of this year's Second Opinion -- approximately a $1000 value! Today's entry comes in form of three shorter profiles. To answer correctly, respondents must identify all three players. Because of the difficulty of this round, multiple attempts are allowed. If no one has the correct answer by 1pm ET, we will select the closest answer. Read the rest of this entry » Much like fingerprints, no two off-seasons are exactly alike. Every year develops at its own pace and has its own quirks, and this year is certainly no exception. Multiple Scott Boras clients have signed one-year deals, hoping to get more interest next season. One of the top players on the market didn't sign until late January. The Florida Marlins were one of the high-rollers at the Winter Meetings. And in the wake of Edwin Jackson signing with the Washington Nationals, we're left with another oddity: an over-supply of starting pitchers in February. At the moment, there are at least four pitchers available as a free agent or on the trade block: Roy Oswalt (4.04 SIERA in 2011) John Lannan (4.47 SIERA) Jeff Niemann (3.79 SIERA) / Wade Davis (4.83 SIERA) Kyle McClellan (4.36 SIERA) Oswalt is easily the best free agent starter that has been available as late as February in a few years. John Maine was the best starter signed after February 1st last off-season, and Livan Hernandez and Chien-Ming Wang were the two hot February acquisitions back in 2010. And back in 2009, the list was just as paltry: Adam Eaton, Jorge Vazquez, Livan Hernandez, and Brett Tomko. Come February, the trade market for starting pitchers is also normally bone dry. Dana Eveland was traded in early February of 2010, and the Rays traded away Jason Hammel in April of 2009. Outside of that, the only other significant starting pitchers to get traded this late in the off-season were Johan Santana and Erik Bedard back in 2008. How many teams currently need starting pitching? The Red Sox certainly do, and it appears that the Orioles, Indians, Blue Jays, and Cardinals have all been searching to some degree. The Mets could also use to add a starter, right? But as we get down to the wire, it feels like there are fewer and fewer teams clamoring to add starting pitching, while the market for starters is (relatively speaking) flooded. Of course, the market isn't quite as straightforward as it looks. Oswalt doesn't appear to want to sign with the Red Sox, and the Rays aren't going to be willing to sell low or trade in-division with either Niemann or Davis. Meanwhile, Lannan and McClellan are both average-to-below-average pitchers that will be due a few million each this upcoming season. Will this market end up being more favorable to teams interested in buying or selling starters? It's difficult to say, but based on the recent past, this looks like an unusually strong buyers market. All sizes of FanGraphs T-Shirts are now back in stock! Huge thanks to all those who have already bought them to show their support for the site! If anyone has ideas for what they'd like to see on future FanGraphs T-Shirts, please send us a note via our contact form. There has been a poll up on Joe Posnanski’s blog for quite some time now asking his Brilliant Readers which pitcher they would rather have for four years if they were an MLB owner with $100 million burning a hole in their pocket – Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, or Yu Darvish. The question arose due to the expectation that Yu Darvish would cost whichever team acquired him a number in this range. In the end, the Rangers ended up shelling out $111 million over six years for the Japanese star. Obviously, a poll can only display so much information because it does not allow voters to lay out their arguments for and against each pitcher. Fortunately, we here at FanGraphs can provide that opportunity through our comments section. What follows below will be a brief summary of each pitcher, and then hopefully a spirited debate in the comments. Read the rest of this entry »Last night, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News reported that Josh Hamilton was spotted drinking at a local area bar on Monday evening. According to the report, Ian Kinsler appeared at some point and tried to convince Hamilton to leave. Beyond that, we don't really know much. In fact, including that information, I'd argue that we don't really know much. I'm conflicted about even writing about this, to be honest. Yes, it's news, and we try to provide analysis and commentary about things going on in the news, but what can we really say about Hamilton's battle to remain sober? I have no insight into addiction or what a relapse might mean for a recovering addict. There might be people who can speak about what could be inferred from Hamilton falling off the wagon, but as far as I know, no one on staff is an expert on alcoholism. I'm certainly not, and I don't feel qualified to have any kind of opinion on what this news means for Hamilton's sobriety. I was tempted to write about what this might mean for Hamilton's potential chances for a contract extension, since that's a bit more up our alley, but anything we said would really just be baseless speculation. To actually know how this might affect the Rangers desire to give Hamilton a long term contract, we'd need access to information that only they're privy to - his drug test schedule and results, his resolve to get back on the wagon, and what steps he's willing to take to ensure that this doesn't become a recurring issue. We don't know any of that. In all honestly, we don't really know anything. The only thing I'm comfortable saying about this news is that I hope Josh Hamilton wins his battle with alcohol and that the sport is better when he's playing at a high level. Whether you root for the Rangers or not, Josh Hamilton is worth rooting for. According to Mark Bowman of MLB.com, Tommy Hanson will be ready for spring training. Hanson was on his way to another strong season when a small tear in his rotator cuff was discovered in August. The tear did not require surgery, and the team shut down Hanson for the remainder of the season. Had the Atlanta Braves made the playoffs last season, there was some speculation that Hanson would have rejoined the team after two months of rest. The Braves' collapse down the stretch probably benefitted Hanson, as he's had the entire offseason to rest and rehabilitate his shoulder. If Hanson had pushed himself to pitch in the playoffs before he was ready -- and re-injured his shoulder -- there's a good chance his outlook would be less rosy today. While we won't know how well Hanson is doing until we see him pitch again, this comes as positive news for the Braves, who are also managing past injury issues with Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens. Hudson had back surgery during the offseason but is expected to be ready for spring training, and Jurrjens will be returning from a knee injury that cut his 2011 season short. With Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran nearly ready to contribute -- and Kris Medlen returning from injury -- the Braves are one of the few teams that can get by if one of their pitchers suffer a setback. Having a healthy Hanson would be a substantial gain for the Braves. Considering the team missed out on the playoffs due to injuries, Hanson's recovery is the first sign that the team could be in line for a successful playoff run this season. You probably haven’t heard of him, but Brian “Pete” Peterson is an invaluable member of the Detroit Tigers organization. Working within the realm of sports psychology, and alongside Dr. George Carlo, the 58-year-old Peterson is heading into his 10th season as the team’s Performance Enhancement Instructor. It isn’t a unique role -- a handful of other teams employ someone in a similar capacity -- but thanks to his background and experience, few, if any, are better at helping players gain a mental edge. ------ David Laurila: How would you define your role with the Tigers organization? Brian Peterson: My title is Performance Enhancement Instructor and my job is to help all of the players, in the entire organization, be clear of mind while they’re going about their business. That’s probably the easiest way to describe it. DL: How did you get involved in professional baseball? BP: I was a minor league pitcher for four years. My first year was 1976, in the Northwest League. I came out of the University of Oregon and was with one of the very first independent teams. Later, and before coming to Detroit, I worked for the Florida Marlins. I was a pitching coach for six years -- five in the Midwest League and one in the Eastern League -- and then I was with them for three years in my current role. When the Marlins were sold, I was one of about 25 or 30 minor-league personnel who was let go. In September of 2002, Dave Dombrowski hired me. Prior to that, the Tigers didn’t have anyone in my position. DL: How may teams currently employ Performance Enhancement Instructors, or Sports Psychologists? Read the rest of this entry »Micah Owings has been an interesting character over the years, garnering plenty of attention for his bat -- .349 wOBA with nine homers in 217 career plate appearances -- while leaving much to be deserved when on the mound. The two-way right-hander is closing in on 500 career innings (479.1 to be exact) with a 4.91 ERA to go along with his 4.95 FIP and 4.93 xFIP, so there's no funny business here. He's giving up runs as often as expected. Owings signed a one-year deal worth $1 million with the Padres recently, courtesy of the tireless Ken Rosenthal. Read the rest of this entry » It's no secret that the Indians have been disappointed in Matt LaPorta's production and development, and today they took a step towards replacing him at first base. Jon Heyman reports that Cleveland will sign Casey Kotchman to what I presume is a one- or two-year contract. Update: Paul Hoynes says it's a one-year deal worth $3 million plus incentives. Kotchman has been the butt of many jokes over the last few seasons, which tends to happen when you're first baseman that musters just a .304 wOBA and an 84 wRC+ with a measly .125 ISO in nearly 1,500 plate appearances across a three-year stretch like Kotchman did from 2008-2010. He did give the Rays 563 quality plate appearances last season -- .351 wOBA and a 125 wRC+ -- after coming up in April to replace the suddenly retired Manny Ramirez. That's the Kotchman the Tribe hope they agreed to sign this afternoon. As you can see in the graph below, there has been no significant change in the first baseman's batted ball profile over the last few seasons...  There's nothing outrageous there that would support his .333 BABIP last season compared to the .277 mark he put up from 2004-2010. I don't want to take the easy way out and call it good luck, but it is something to be mindful of going forward. It's possible that many of those ground balls that skirted through the turf infield in Tropicana Field will be slowed down enough by natural grass that fielders will be able to make a play on them, which would do a number on his BABIP and production. For what it's worth, Kotchman had a .250 BABIP on ground balls last year compared to the .237 league average and his .194 career mark. He also had an eye procedure last winter, which is definitely worth mentioning. Kotchman is a very strong gloveman at first base, so he will improve Cleveland's defense. He'll also make their lineup even more left-handed than it already is, with switch-hitters Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera representing the team's only everyday threats from the right side. That can be problematic for a team trying to make a run at a division title, and I can't help but think Derrek Lee might have been a better fit. Assuming the money isn't outrageous -- and there's no reason to think it will be -- the Indians have upgraded their defense and potentially their offense if the 28-year-old made real improvement last season. Yesterday, Jayson Stark wrote a column that was music to my ears. His column was the first serious report I'd read to indicate that Bud Selig's dream of adding a second wild card in each league had hit a logistical snag. Stark is careful to note that it is still possible — "All of this is solvable," says one of Stark's sources — but the drumbeat of inevitability has been momentarily hushed. And that's fantastic, as far as I'm concerned. When the plan to expand the wild card was first announced in late 2010, I wrote two columns against the idea: I want to keep the schedule from expanding further and prevent the slippery slope of an expanded playoff schedule eroding the significance of the regular season. The main objection beyond that is the speciousness of the stated reasoning. Bud Selig has couched the idea of expanding the playoffs in language about “fairness”... Obviously, this plan is predicated on money.
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There isn’t much terribly wrong with this plan, in the abstract: it will make a lot of people richer while helping to increase the hopes of Blue Jays and Orioles fans without much hurting the fans of other teams. Compared to them, my objections are relatively minor. But I wish baseball’s leadership weren’t so disingenuous about it all. I've written a number of columns about the playoffs, and my basic position is simple: more playoffs means that the regular season means less. It cheapens the product. (I'm very sympathetic to the Blue Jays' situation, of course. But I'd prefer to address that by rethinking baseball divisions and getting rid of unbalanced schedules, rather than by continuing to expand the playoff pool every year.) Look, I hate the baseball offseason more than anyone, but I'm relatively unique among American sports fans, who have already turned their attention to football by the time the baseball season reaches its apogee. Baseball World Series ratings have plummeted compared to football over the past two decades, and part of the reason is the interminable season. Stretching the season into November doesn't help matters. It was a minor victory when, in 2011, the World Series actually finished before November, for the first time since 2008. But the playoffs are still incredibly languidly paced. The biggest reason that the playoffs stretch on, of course, is television revenue: Fox and the other networks who bid on playoff baseball want a typical series to have games on nights when they'll get their biggest viewership: Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday. So the off days are scheduled to satisfy almighty Mammon. Since becoming commissioner, Selig has already expanded the playoffs once by adding a single wild card, and he's looking to do it again. It's only a single game this time, but it's hard to feel certain that they'll stop at two wild cards. After all, as I mentioned above, the fundamental argument has always been "fairness." But if 10 playoff teams is "fairer" than eight playoff teams, then 12 playoff teams must be fairer than ten. Using that logic with that limited definition of what's fair means that there's essentially no way to stop adding playoff teams. Moreover, a short-term view of the money — more games equals more dollars, ad infinitum — leads one to the same conclusion. But one look at the decline in Nielsen ratings for playoff baseball over the past two decades suggests that may be an overly simplistic analysis. The reason for the recent snag is just about scheduling: certain dates in the 2012 playoff schedule are already set in stone, and it is difficult to figure out quite how the extra wild card games will fit in. But all sides appear to agree in principle on the concept. Stark writes that Bud Selig is "adamant" to get this done in 2012, but whether or not he is successful, appears like there will be no problem implementing the new playoff schedule in 2013. Selig has presented the new wild card as a corrective to the original wild card, rather than an expansion. If an agreement is reached, then under the new rules, the two wild cards will play one another in a one-game playoff for the right to play in the division series against one of the division winners. The wild card team, it is argued, would therefore be disadvantaged against the slightly better-rested division winner. That's certainly what Richard Justice thinks. Justice writes for MLB.com now, but he's a veteran sportswriter with prior service at the Washington Post, Houston Chronicle, and ESPN. Because he works for the organization that's trying to implement this policy, I doubt that he would have spoken out nearly as strongly if he didn't support the new wild card — but I doubt he would have written something he didn't believe. "To add two additional playoff teams while actually increasing the importance of the regular season is sheer brilliance," Justice writes. "If you worried that baseball was diluting the regular season, your concerns have been addressed." So I may be an outlier even among the purist, old-fogey crowd. But I'm not alone. Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey, and Mark Teixeira have all spoken out in favor of the current system. Still, Selig justifies his current action by recalling how many people who were previously against the Wild Card, all the way back in 1995, are now strongly in favor. In fact, he's brought back one of his favorite icky metaphors. In 2010, he said: If I had defiled motherhood I don't think I could have gotten ripped any more than I did. But now it's fascinating to me. Now they not only like it so much, they want more of it. Then, just a few days ago, he said: You would have thought I had defiled motherhood, the way they talked about how I ruined the game... But look what it’s done. Ew, Bud. Just stop it. Please. Per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, 28-year-old right-hander Edwin Jackson and the Washington Nationals have reached an agreement on a one-year deal worth somewhere in the $8-12 million range. Pending a physical, Jackson joins a rotation that includes Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and recent acquisition (in a trade with Oakland) Gio Gonzalez. What is there to say about Jackson, specifically, that FanGraphs hasn't said already? The market for him has been -- and continued this offseason to be -- underwhelming relative to his production ( link). It's likely to continue to be underwhelming ( link). He (Jackson) has become a journeymen despite possessing youth, physical tools, and an increasingly robust resume ( link). For three consecutive years now, Jackson has been worth between 3.5 and 4.0 WAR -- which suggests that, provided he's healthy, another season in the 3.5-4.0 WAR range wouldn't be shocking. It also suggests that, even were a team to have given him $15 million, that would still probably have been on the low-end of fair market value. The question that's more interesting for the time being is this one: what, precisely, are the Nats hoping to accomplish with the Jackson deal? Let's start first of all by establishing this: the addition of Jackson -- and subtraction, presumably, of either John Lannan or Chien-Ming Wang -- doesn't make the Nats insta-contenders. Per a too-early standings projection conducted last week by the Replacement Level Yankees blog (using Marcels as an input), the Nats finished with 83 wins; the Phillies and Braves, with 90 and 89, respectively. The most recent iteration of OLIVER standings projects the Nats to finish with 81 wins -- a full 10 games behind the would-be first-place Braves. Read the rest of this entry »Boston Red Sox top prospect Bryce Brentz rebounded from a difficult short season debut in 2010 to explode for 30 home runs across two single-A levels during the 2011 season. His outburst has left prospect followers envisioning an answer to the Red Sox right field problem by as early as 2013. In scouting Brentz, the concept of age-versus-level is an important consideration as 22-year old high round college picks are generally expected to devour that level of competition. In Brentz' case, the video game power numbers make it quite difficult to assess his true skill level and if/how his bat will play at the game's highest level. With this being keeper and dynasty league draft season, January/February of each year is really the only time I'll binge on prospect lists to gain an edge come draft time. For the past few weeks, seeing Bryce Brentz listed on Red Sox top-10 lists was certainly not unexpected, but the number of overall top-100 rankings Brentz has achieved is borderline shocking. Is Brentz a "guy"? Sure, but the next contact I speak to who views him as an impact bat will be the first. Read the rest of this entry »The contracts that baseball players sign are some of the longest contracts in business -- not just sports. When handing out nine- or ten-year deals, projecting salary inflation is critical, and yet getting an accurate forecast is nearly impossible. Read the rest of this entry »Among Wednesday's moves, the Seattle Mariners announced the signing of Carlos Guillen to a minor league contract. After a very successful career with the Tigers, Guillen returns to the team he broke into the majors with all the way back in 1998. Unfortunately, it just doesn't appear Guillen has anything left in the tank. Read the rest of this entry » |