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Some advanced Sabermetrics questions

0 votes
I'm writing sort of an uber line up analysis and need some help with the stats.

I read about ultimate base running (UBR or BSR) as a way of summing up a batter's baserunning ability excluding base stealing. Does anyone have a chart / estimation regarding a batter's chance to go 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home on a single based on his BSR?

Secondly, I'm wondering how GB% effects double plays for a batter. Does a batter's GB% raise, drop or remain even with a runner at first? Also if anyone here knows about the chances of a double play based on GB% (assuming a runner at first).

Also if there's a site for all those sort of charts (I don't mind paying if the fee is reasnoble) it would be much obliged.
asked Sep 4, 2012 in Sabermetrics by TutGadol (28 points)

1 Answer

+3 votes

I ran a query based off your second question, and these were the results:

Bases Empty 44.9 36.9 18.1 7.8
1-- 43.7 37.5 18.8 7.8
-2- 46.3 35.8 17.8 7.7
12- 44.7 37.2 18 8
--3 45.3 36.9 17.8 8
1-3 44.9 37.2 17.9 7.9
-23 46.1 36.6 17.3 7.9
123 44.2 37.9 17.9 8.5


answered Sep 4, 2012 by James Gentile (2,018 points)
Thanks a lot, +1. And by the way, where did you run this query?

I ran it using a SQL program and the retrosheet files.

Your 1st question is definitely answerable, but it would take a bit of data-collecting. In their Base Running and Misc table, B-ref has an Extra Base Taken % or something similar if you are interested in that, as well as 1st-to-3rd and 2nd-to-home data.

I wrote something for BTB about your question, it may interest you.

Read the article, some interesting points. I think the steady GB% is a result of the batter's effort to lift the ball up balancing the heavier array of sinkers / 2smers down in the zone. While I don't have the stats to back the talk I'm pretty sure that in DP situations the amount of "Ground ball pitches" rise significantly, so I assume the batter's effort not to hit into the dp is what balances the scale.