Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 8 of 10
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.
Below are links to ballots for another collection of starting pitchers — in this cases, ones who surnames begin with M through S.
Other Players: Nori Aoki / Brett Anderson / Chad Billingsley / Emilio Bonifacio / A.J. Burnett / Billy Butler / Asdrubal Cabrera / Melky Cabrera / Nelson Cruz / Michael Cuddyer / Gavin Floyd / Jason Hammel / Aaron Harang / Chase Headley / Torii Hunter / Hiroki Kuroda / Adam LaRoche / Jon Lester / Francisco Liriano / Jed Lowrie / Nick Markakis / Russell Martin / Victor Martinez / Justin Masterson / Kendrys Morales / Michael Morse / Aramis Ramirez / Hanley Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Mark Reynolds / Alex Rios / Pablo Sandoval / Ichiro Suzuki / Chris Young (OF)/ Delmon Young.
Brandon McCarthy (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding McCarthy:
- Has averaged 149 IP and 2.2 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 3.0 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 3.0 WAR in 200.0 IP in 2014.
- Is projected to record 2.9 WAR per 200 IP** in 2015.
- Is entering his age-31 season.
- Made $9.0M in 2014, as part of deal signed in December of 2012.
*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for McCarthy.
Brandon Morrow (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Morrow:
- Has averaged 70 IP and 1.0 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 2.7 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 0.4 WAR in 33.1 IP in 2014.
- Is projected to record 1.5 WAR per 200 IP** in 2015.
- Is entering his age-30 season.
- Made $8.0M in 2014, as part of deal signed in January of 2012.
*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for Morrow.
Jake Peavy (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Peavy:
- Has averaged 188 IP and 2.9 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 3.1 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 1.9 WAR in 202.2 IP in 2014.
- Is projected to record 1.3 WAR per 200 IP** in 2015.
- Is entering his age-34 season.
- Made $14.5M in 2014, as part of deal signed in October of 2012.
*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for Peavy.
Ervin Santana (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Santana:
- Has averaged 195 IP and 1.5 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 1.6 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 2.8 WAR in 196.0 IP in 2014.
- Is projected to record 2.3 WAR per 200 IP** in 2015.
- Is entering his age-32 season.
- Made $14.1M in 2014, as part of deal signed in March of 2014.
*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for Santana.
Max Scherzer (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Scherzer:
- Has averaged 207 IP and 5.5 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 5.3 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 5.6 WAR in 220.1 IP in 2014.
- Is projected to record 3.8 WAR per 200 IP** in 2015.
- Is entering his age-30 season.
- Made $15.5M in 2014, as part of deal signed in January of 2014.
*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
McCarthy – 2/24M (admit that could be light)
Morrow – 1/6M (if healthy)
Peavy – 2/24M
Santana – 2/26M (or he accepts QO)
Scherzer – 7/161M
Do you really think that Scherzer will get $20 million less than Verlander even though there have been two years of inflation and he’s on the actual open market? I think he’s getting $200 million easy.
Agree, he’s been a 6 WAR pitcher the last few year, I see him getting close to 30mil annually
I’m inclined to lean a little more in the direction of the OP rather than $30 mil/yr. Scherzer is hitting free agency on the wrong side of 30 and I think teams are a little more cautious about paying aging pitchers than they used to be (is there a long deal for a pitcher over 30 that’s worked out for the team?). He’ll probably get 7 years and will still make stupid money but I think the total package will be closer to $170-ish mil than jumping over the $200+ range.
Personally, I don’t think he’s in the same category as Verlander. Sure, Scherzer ‘s been a 6 WAR pitcher for the last two years, but Verlander was a 7 WAR pitcher for the last four years when he signed. He had a much better career to date, better recent performance, longer period of dominance, was considered a future HOFer, and had a better reputation than Scherzer has.
Not to take anything away from Scherzer because he’s a great pitcher and he’ll make significant coin, but Verlander was a clear step above him. And despite that, it’s looking like Verlander’s deal might be an albatross if this year’s trend continues.
Verlander was significantly better than Scherzer over a longer period of time, but JayT’s points still. Scherzer is on the open market, while Verlander was not. And there has been a large influx of cash into baseball since Verlander signed his extension (mainly through the new national TV deal). These are reasons why it would not be surprising to see Scherzer’s deal eclipse Verlander’s.
It’s easy to say that but who’s going to give it to him? The Yankees spent a lot last winter and the Dodgers already have a lot allocated to their rotation.
That is a good point. I was thinking about Greinke and the fact that he got 25 Mil a year and Scherzer is a tier above him, but the Dodgers and Yankees might not be in on Scherzer. Then again, maybe the Cubs try to make a splash, we’ll see. Astros and Red Sox maybe an option as well. It only takes one GM…
The Red Sox have almost $45 million coming off the books with Lester, Peavy, and Lacky all leaving, and they only have $23 million committed for 2016, so they can very easily afford a big-name pitcher. The Cubs, White Sox, Astros and Mets are all teams that have payroll significantly down from what they’ve spent in the past and they are getting close enough to contention that I could see any one of them pulling the trigger. I think there are more than enough teams out there that will be willing to pay Scherzer.
But the Sox already had an opportunity to extend Lester but clearly didn’t want to pay the full price, so what makes you think they’ll pay it now?
You can forge the Mets of course from spending, not to mention they have pitching depth. And the Astros and White Sox are not ready to push their chips in for what an elite FA costs.
Of course the Yankees are always a possibility even if it seems they added their ace last winter and have two very expensive SPs in their rotation. The only other teams that I could see are the Giants or Phils if they move Hamels. If the Cubs can land Lester, I could see Scherzer land in either SF or Philly, tho that would seem undoable if they sign Tomas…
The Sox not extending Lester doesn’t really have any effect on whether or not they will sign Scherzer though. Maybe they never gave Lester their best possible offer because they preferred Scherzer. I can see a situation where they figured if they can get Lester for a deal, they’d stick with him, but if they have to pay full price they might as well pay a little bit extra and get the guy that’s better and younger.
If someone is giving up a draft pick to sign Santana then they definitely should be locking him up for a minimum of 3 years.
I think Bosox do not have to give up a pick as one of bottom 10 teams in 2014. Cubs, Rangers too.
They would give up their 2nd rounder.