It wasn’t too long ago that Edwin Jackson was considered a bit of a bust after failing to produce with the Los Angeles Dodgers and his early career with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Through his first five minor league seasons, Jackson made 46 starts between both teams in question, mostly in a 2007 season marked by a 5-15 record and a 5.76 ERA. Although Jackson’s peripheral stats indicate that he pitched much better than his basic stats show, his 4.90 FIP still didn’t suggest the major league ace that some had claimed Jackson could become.

When the Devil Rays changed their name, their fortunes changed. So did Edwin Jackson’s. Despite a nearly identical K/BB rate and HR/9 rate, Jackson turned his brutal 2007 into a respectable 14-11 and 4.42 ERA season, apparently making him worth enough to be traded for highly regarded Tigers farmhand Matt Joyce.

Jackson’s basic stats saw even more improvement in 2009, as he went 13-9 with a 3.62 ERA for Detroit and held a sub-3.00 ERA for much of the season. But this year, we did actually see improvement in his peripherals, as his K rate landed between his ‘07 and ‘08 marks while his BB rate continued its downward march.

That’s a very encouraging trend for a pitcher who will be 26 for most of the upcoming season. With a K rate below 7, however, it is unlikely that Jackson will emerge as an ace. Even with the encouraging control he showed in 2009, Jackson’s FIP still was a modest 4.28. That’s above average, and for a pitcher that’s under team control, that makes him a very solid asset. However, Jackson’s likely to be overvalued in this market due to his ability to throw a 94 mile an hour average fastball and his great ERA.

That isn’t to say that teams should avoid trading for him, or that the Tigers should unload him at the first half-decent offer. At his age, it’s still possible that we see the improvement that turns him into a sub-4.00 FIP pitcher. Still, most projection systems will likely peg Jackson for a FIP around 4.40. We can’t say that Jackson is an elite pitcher based on what we’ve seen from him, and he shouldn’t be treated as such by major league front offices.

The Reds have entered the offseason looking to trim payroll, according to multiple sources. The Reds have multiple contracts which could offer immediate relief if unloaded, specifically those of Bronson Arroyo ($14.25M guaranteed through 2011), Aaron Harang ($14.5M guaranteed through 2011) and Francisco Cordero ($25.25M through 2012).

In order to unload these contracts, the Reds will probably have to include somebody who is more likely to provide surplus value to a club. Joey Votto fits that bill perfectly, as a pre-arb all-star caliber player. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, when asked if Votto could be included in a trade this offseason, Reds GM Walt Jocketty replied “Oh God, no!”

And for good reason. In Votto, the Reds have a threat with the bat and a stopper with the glove. Votto improved on his stellar rookie season of 2008 by 45 points of wOBA, posting an incredible .418 mark. His UZR fell below average, but he has a career UZR/150 of +4 runs. The Fan’s Scouting Report also rated Votto as a slightly above-average overall fielder. Overall, in roughly two years of MLB service, Votto has put up 8.2 wins. A 4 win season basically defines all-star, and that’s exactly what Votto has done in his short career.

A .418 wOBA again might be too much to expect of the young Votto. His BABIP in 2009 was an unsustainable .373, even higher than his 2008 mark of .330. Votto does have a well above average LD rate, which dropped to a still excellent 21.7% in 2009, making his 2009 BABIP seem even odder. Still, a BB% increase from 10.3% to 13.0% is a great sign for the Reds, and at the least, Votto seems capable of maintaining a wOBA between his .373 mark of 2008 and his 2009 mark of .418.

Even at the bottom ends of his production, a .373 wOBA and merely average fielding, Votto is roughly a 3 win player. Votto will enter his age 27 season in 2010, and the Reds will hold him through his age 30 season in 2013. The Reds will be paying only about $500K for his services in 2010, and his OBP-heavy hitting skillset is likely to be undervalued in arbitration. He likely will not receive the awards that Ryan Howard ($10M, $15M, $19M) received, nor what Prince Fielder ($7.5M, $11.5M including signing bonus first two years) received in arbitration. With Votto producing as he has through his career, he is one of the best assets in the MLB. Jocketty’s response was right on the money.

As we inch closer and closer to the impending free agent signing period, rumors are picking up over some of the big name free agents. On the hitting side, we have guys like Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. On the mound, the closest thing to a superstar we have is John Lackey.

Recently, reports have come out linking Lackey to teams like the Brewers, Mariners, and Rangers, not to mention the obvious links to both New York teams, Boston, and a possible return to the Angels. Of course, unsubstantiated claims will abound until Lackey actually picks a team. What kind of value will Lackey be bringing to the table in 2010 and beyond?

A quick look at Lackey’s career shows arguably three or four all-star caliber seasons, despite the fact that he only made one all-star game, in 2007, when his 3.01 ERA led the league. Indeed, 2007 was an excellent season for Lackey, but so were 2005, 2006, and 2009, all seasons where Lackey posted 175+ IP and an FIP under 3.75. He suffered in 2008 due to an abnormally high HR/FB of 15.3% but still maintained an excellent 3.25 K/BB ratio.

There just isn’t a whole lot not to like about Lackey’s performance. His K/9 hasn’t dropped below 7.00 since 2005, and his BB/9 hasn’t been above 3.00 in that same time frame. Even in 2008 and 2009, seasons in which he suffered injuries, he managed to pitch over 160 innings and make at least 24 starts, much more than can be said about such injury-prone pitchers as Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, and Ben Sheets, who will be competing against him on the SP free agent market.

That being said, Lackey is 31. Although he’s averaged over 4 wins above replacement the last four seasons, expecting that out of a pitcher from his age 31 through age 35 or 36 seasons is irresponsible, and he has suffered injuries twice in the last two years. Lackey is likely looking for a four or five year deal. Over four years, a contract that expects 4 WAR worth of performance is worth roughly 18 million dollars. With the slight discount we usually see on long term contracts, that comes out to a 4 year/64 million dollar deal, or maybe a 5 year/80 million dollar deal.

That’s an awfully substantial risk for a team in any market. We know that Lackey can be a great pitcher, but for any team willing to sign him, they have to be ready to absorb the risks that are incurred with a 4 year commitment to any pitcher, much less one in his mid-30s.

In a market with such injury prone aces as Rich Harden and Erik Bedard available to teams this offseason, it can be easy to forget about one ace who missed all of 2009 on the shelf. That would be Ben Sheets, the former ace of the Milwaukee Brewers, who spent the entire season recovering from an elbow injury suffered at the end of the 2008 season, and whose elbow injury negated a two-year contract he had signed with Texas.

As a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers last season, I really missed Ben Sheets, as the Brewers starting pitching staff combined for a miserable 13.1 runs above replacement. Still, it had been nearly as disappointing watching, year after year, as Sheets missed more and more time due to injury. From 2005-2008, Sheets only averaged 150 innings per season. He missed significant time each season, only making more than 30 starts once, in 2008, before his season-ending injury which caused him to miss all of 2009.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that Sheets doesn’t bring value to a team. He has legitimate ace stuff. He has a career K/BB ratio of 3.85 and a career FIP of 3.56. His fastball and curveball combo is deadly, as both pitches have been worth nearly +.60 runs above average per 100 pitches over his career.

Much like with J.D. Drew, we have an example of a very talented player who just can’t seem to play a full season. Still, Sheets has potential provide value at the level of a John Lackey type pitcher. Since 2002, Sheets has provided 29.8 WAR, or 3.8 per season (excluding 2009). That total WAR mark ties him for 16th of the win value era with Tim Hudson, who has thrown 200 more innings over that time frame. It’s 1.5 more wins than Carlos Zambrano has in 350 fewer innings.

The thing with Sheets is that the best predictor of future injury is past injury. Because of this, it would be irresponsible of any team to expect more than 150 innings out of the former Milwaukee ace. However, unless this latest injury took all the life out of Sheets’s arm, it’s a good bet that they’ll be excellent innings, and I would expect that major league teams understand this. The question is which one is willing to take the biggest chance.

It’s the winter now, and for MLB fans and front offices alike that means speculation abounds on various roster shuffles and mix-ups. From now until April, we will be seeing endless fantastical roster constructions from every team from media sources ranging from blogs to the mainstream media to everybody’s new favorite hangout, Twitter. For many teams heading into the market, the question of who will lead off is one of great concern. Not every team has an Ichiro Suzuki or a Grady Sizemore to set the table. What kind of player should these other teams look for?

Here is a simple list of qualities that the ideal leadoff hitter possesses:

1. Productive hitter

That’s the easiest way to put it. It certainly is better, if you have two similarly talented (in terms of overall production) hitters, to leverage the leadoff spot with a player with a higher OBP. Still, what I think is often forgotten by managers (and GMs, to a certain extent), is that the leadoff hitter bats the most times through the order. To best leverage the spot, you want somebody that first of all is a productive hitter, and second of all is an on-base threat.

Does it really matter, though? As analysts and students of the game, this is the exact sort of thing we like to know. Delving deeper, from The Book we see the leadoff hitter receives roughly 4.80 PAs per game and the 5th hitter only receives 4.34. Over 150 games, that means that the leadoff hitter receives roughly 70 more plate appearances. Over these 70 plate appearances, the amount of runs gained by switching a player from the #5 spot to the #1 spot who is 20 points of wOBA better is roughly one run. This may be erased by properly leveraging an on-base threat at the top of the lineup, but it certainly will not end up being significant to the point of a win or likely not even half a win.

GMs entering the offseason looking for hitters need not concern themselves with what lineup slot they set their players in. Defensive alignment and batter handedness factor into lineup construction more than leveraging a player’s specific OBP or SLG skills. If your team needs a 3B and “needs” a leadoff hitter, it may seem that Chone Figgins and his .363 career OBP is a great fit and Adrian Beltre and his .325 career OBP doesn’t work at all, but it’s just not true. Beltre’s a great fielder and an average hitter, and Figgins is a great (but probably not as good) fielder and an average hitter, and that’s what matters.

Does your team need a catcher for 2010? Well, you might be in some trouble. With Victor Martinez’s option picked up today (and Jason Varitek exercising his player option), here’s a list of free agent catchers who received more than 200 PAs last year, courtesy of Cot’s Contracts

Rod Barajas TOR (B)
Josh Bard WAS
Henry Blanco SD
Ramon Hernandez * CIN (B)
Jason Kendall MIL (B)
Bengie Molina SF (A)
Miguel Olivo KC (B)
Ivan Rodriguez TEX (B)
Yorvit Torrealba COL (B)
Gregg Zaun TB

*Cincinnati holds an $8.5MM club option

The average 2009 WAR of these players was 1.2. You’re not going to find any superstars out of this bunch, but there are a few interesting contributors in an extended backup or starting role this year. Although Miguel Olivo leads this bunch in 2009 WAR at 2.2, he was playing over his head (21.2% HR/FB rate), and is also a terrible defensive catcher from most reports. Gregg Zaun was second with 1.8 WAR, put up in 296 PAs between Baltimore and Tampa Bay.

Zaun’s .334 wOBA ranked 10th in the league among catchers with at least 200 PAs. Zaun did have some decent BABIP luck, with a .291 vs. a career mark (over 15 seasons) of .276. Still, Zaun’s combination of good plate discipline (10.6% walk rate/12.1% career) and roughly average power (.156 ISO/.137 career) at the catcher position makes him a very interesting piece. Pro-rated to 600 plate appearances, Zaun’s 2009 was worth 3.6 wins.

At his career wOBA mark of .316, Zaun is worth closer to 2.8 wins, which is still excellent, especially when compared to the rest of the catchers on the market. Interestingly, the Rays decided to buy him out for 500,000 dollars, rather than accept his $2MM option for 2010. Word is that Zaun is interested in returning to Tampa given that he is from the area and will have the opportunity to start, and may take a deal for less than the 2 million dollars that his option would have paid him.

Zaun may be one of the rare cases where it’s not all about the money, and if he wants to stay in Tampa Bay, more power to him. If he’s actually trying to get top dollar out of the market, however, Zaun needs to look elsewhere. The Rays have little leverage – their catchers accrued a staggering -28 wRAA last year, thanks to Dioner Navarro’s mighty struggles. The Rays definitely have need. The Brewers, Giants, Mets, and Blue Jays also have obvious needs at catcher, thanks to free agency and incompetency, and catcher is always a position where teams are looking to improve.

Zaun’s skills appear to be worth about 8 million dollars in a platooning role (~400 PAs), and more in a starting role. If the Rays actually sign Zaun to a contract of less than 2 million, it could be the steal of the offseason. If they lose him, it may be one of the biggest mistakes.

Over the weekend, the Minnesota Twins picked up their 10.5 million dollar option on RF Michael Cuddyer to keep him through 2010. Cuddyer has been a member of all five of the Twins playoff teams from the first decade of the millenium.

EDIT: Cuddyer’s option was for 2011. I regret the mistake, but the assumptions in this article still hold. 10.5M is too much to commit to Cuddyer.

Still, the Twins are the epitome of the small market team. 10.5 million dollars is certainly not an insignificant amount for them. The Twins have never broken a 75 million dollar payroll, and their average payroll since 2007 is approximately $65 million. It’s hard to say where the Twins payroll will be next year. They can expect an influx of revenue due to the opening of Target Field, but given current economic times, a significant increase in team salary is unlikely.

A liberal estimate of the Twins 2011 payroll of $70 million leaves Cuddyer as 15% of their payroll. Cuddyer’s offensive performance in 2009 was among the best of his career. His .370 wOBA tied his previous career high from 2006, and his 32 HRs marked a career high. He was worth 4.2 wins above replacement from a purely offensive standpoint last year.

Of course, we don’t measure value without including defense, and that’s where Cuddyer’s value sinks. Cuddyer has bounced between positions in his career, but since 2006 nearly all of his innings have come in RF. Familiarity has not improved Cuddyer’s skills in the field, as he has never put up a positive UZR in RF, bottoming out at 17 runs below average this year. With a -10 UZR/150 in RF, Cuddyer’s defensive contributions roughly equal those of a DH, and with his age 31 season coming up, it’s not likely that we’ll see improvements anytime soon.

As his career numbers suggest, Cuddyer’s probably not quite as bad in RF as he was this year, but he ’s also probably not quite as good a hitter either. His ISO ballooned to .245 this year after two straight years under .200, mostly thanks to a ridiculous 17.1% HR/FB ratio. Going forward, his career wOBA of .346 is a much better estimate than his .370 wOBA from 2009. A .346 wOBA, over 600 PAs, is only worth roughly 8 runs above average. With the defensive contributions of a DH, that comes out to roughly 8 runs above replacement, or 0.8 WAR.

It’s very hard for a team to compete when paying a starting player 10.5 million dollars to contribute less than 1 win. It’s even harder for a team in the economic condition that the Twins are. This move seems more like an appeal to the fans rather than an attempt to build a winning team. The better way to appease your fans, however, is to win baseball games. Cuddyer is a slightly above average hitter who is a complete defensive non-factor. He helped the Twins win games as a cost-controlled young player, but the money he will make can help the team much more than he can. The Twins needed to let him go.

The J.J. Putz era in New York ended yesterday, as the Mets bought out the final year of Putz’s contract. With the last year at 8.6 million dollars and the closer position locked up by Francisco Rodriguez, it is a no-brainer for the Mets to pay the 1 million dollar buyout and avoid locking up a significant sum of money on a questionable set-up man.

How remarkably quickly it seems that one of the potential best 8th and 9th inning combos in baseball has been disassembled. While giving up a seven player package, including major league talent in the form of Aaron Heilman, Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez, and Joe Smith, for a small package centered around an expensive reliever appears to be wrong at a glance, due to the fungibility of those kinds of pitchers, this deal brought things to a whole new level.

To begin with, Putz spent much of 2008 on the DL and did not pitch like the 2 to 3 win relief talent that he showed in 2006 and 2007. Although his fastball velocity hadn’t dropped, something was clearly off with his stuff. His BB rate soared and his LD% rose by 3 points. His 3.78 FIP wasn’t terrible, but was only worth .6 wins in 46 innings pitched. All things considered, with the fungibility of relievers, Putz’s age (31 entering 2009) and an injury in 2008, chances were low that Putz would bring the Mets 13.6 million dollars in value in ‘09 and ‘10.

It hit the fan for Putz in 2009. His control problems persisted and his strikeout rate plummeted. Now, as a 32-year old-reliever running a 1.00 K/BB ratio, Putz hits the market again. He just screams reclamation project. It will be interesting to see what team bites.

From the Mets’ standpoint, they sunk 6 million dollars and 7 players into acquiring Putz, Jeremy Reed, and Sean Green. The trade has produced 0.1 WAR from Putz, -0.7 WAR Reed, and -.1 WAR from Green. Unless Reed and Green somehow become productive major leaguers, this trade will go down as historically bad for New York.

The Mets bullpen will likely be a focal point for the front office again this winter. We’ll find out if they’ve learned their lesson.

They got it right. Hideki Matsui was unequivocally the right choice for World Series MVP. His raw numbers were incredible. In 15 plate appearances, the Phillies only managed to get Matsui out 5 times. His 8 hits, 2 doubles, and 2 HRs add up to a .761 wOBA.

Of course, context neutral numbers don’t tell the whole story. in the clinching game 6, Matsui’s grand night tallied a .339 WPA, effectively single-handedly winning the game for New York. Matsui also led Yankee hitters in game 2, where Matsui’s go-ahead home run led to a .223 WPA and a 3-1 Yankee victory. Overall, Matsui totalled .639 WPA, good for the best in the series.

As such, he was a no-brainer. The more interesting discussion, in my mind, stems from discussions from Wednesday afternoon, prior to game 6, regarding Chase Utley’s validity as an MVP candidate. As everybody knows, Utley had an impressive series, tying Reggie Jackson’s record with 5 home runs in a World Series. Thanks to an 0-3 dud in game 6, Utley’s line fell to 6-21 with 3 walks, but all 6 of hits went for extra bases, resulting in a .555 wOBA.

Again, we need to give these numbers context. Utley’s two home run games in games 1 and 5 combined for a .455 WPA and his game 4 (2-4, 2B) was worth another .131. Unfortunately for Utley and the Phillies, that accounts for all of his hits in this World Series. His hitless games in games 2, 3, and 6 (all won by the Yankees) combined for a -.377 WPA, essentially cancelling out games 1 and 4.

Utley’s power performance was impressive. Still, we can’t forget about the bad games. Although Alex Rodriguez and Johnny Damon didn’t have any games, in terms of raw hitting, that compared to Utley. A-Rod, however, put up .269 WPA in game 4 with his game winning double, and Johnny Damon put up .250 in the same game with an RBI single, a hit in the 9th inning, and the legendary double steal that led to the game winning run. Both A-Rod (.330 WPA) and Damon (.421 WPA) had better overall series than Utley, by this measure.

For the Phillies, the best candidate is Cliff Lee. No Phillies hitter consistently put up solid games. Lee more than singlehandedly won game 1 with his memorable complete game (.519 WPA), and pitched well enough in game 5 to lead Philadelphia to their only other series win (.085 WPA). That leaves Lee with .604 WPA for the series, nearly as much as Matsui.

Mariano Rivera, fittingly, finished the game for the Yankees. He did pitch well this series, as he didn’t allow a run, but he only saw one high leverage situation (game 2, +.166 WPA). His contribution was important (total of +.259 WPA), but pales in comparison to Matsui’s and Lee’s, and is still less than Rodriguez and Damon.

The fans got this one right. Hideki Matsui had the game of his MLB career tonight, and he completely deserves this honor.

Game 7, of course, is always living in the realm of “if necessary,” so for all we know any and all analysis on the topic could be moot by tomorrow. However, let’s humor ourselves for a bit. With Cole Hamels having pitched Game 3 on Saturday, he would be on four days’ rest on Thursday for Game 7. With the Phillies now having committed to Pedro Martinez for Game 6, that leaves Charlie Manuel with the choice between J.A. Happ and Cole Hamels.

The real answer here is both. There is absolutely no reason, in a Game 7 situation with essentially every pitcher available besides the Game 6 starter, that a starting pitcher should be allowed to face the lineup more than one time. This is the reason that the league average FIP for starters (roughly 4.45) is so much higher than that for relievers (roughly 4.20). This difference is even more exaggerated when we consider short relievers and remove mop-up types from consideration. This is because the short reliever does not need to pace himself, and doesn’t have to face a lineup the second time, and especially not a third time, where the starter suffers even more.

Apart from Hamels (3.72 FIP as a starter) and Happ (4.46 FIP as a starter), the Phillies could also call on Joe Blanton (4.45 FIP as a starter) off three days rest to pitch an inning or two. They also have Chan Ho Park (2.10 reliever FIP), Ryan Madson (3.23), and Brad Lidge (5.45 FIP, but 3.19 career).

Between these six pitchers, the Phillies could easily get nine quality innings. The difference between starting and relieving comes out to nearly a run, but just for the sake of argument, let’s use a more conservative estimate of .75. Then we see Hamels at roughly 3.00 FIP, and Happ and Blanton sitting at roughly 3.75. Park is probably not a 2.10 FIP true talent, and probably is closer to his 3.90 average from the last two years. Madson has been at 3.20 the last two years, but was at 4.20 as recently as 2007. He fits closer to 3.50 FIP for our estimate. Lidge, on the other hand, has a 2.19 FIP season in 2008 and a 3.88 FIP season in 2007. Giving weight to recent performance, a good estimate for Lidge would be 3.95.

In that case, consider this pitching plan. Hamels starts, pitches three innings. Happ relieves for two innings, and then hands off to Blanton, Park, Lidge, and Madson in some order to finish the game. At no point do the Phillies have to rely on a player with a reliever FIP above 4.00. Leaving Hamels or Happ in past the first part of the lineup would certainly result in a worse pitcher on the mound in the 3rd or 4th inning.

Regardless of how they do it, the Philadelphia Phillies will need any competitive advantage they can get if they reach a Game 7, where they will be facing one of the league’s top pitchers in C.C. Sabathia, and will also have to deal with Mariano Rivera at some point in the game. Runs will likely be at a premium, and this is the Phillies best bet at suppressing the Yankees offense in Game 7.